Play-In watch! Now Pre-Game Thread.

[JayBirdHawk]

36 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I didn't see the official announcement. Is JJ out for the season or just a couple of weeks? Curious if he could be back for the actual playoffs or if he's officially done. 

Re-evaluated in 3 weeks from last Thursday.

[NBASupes]

I see why NO wants OO so bad

[shakes]

If the Hawks lose tonight what draft pick do they get?  Or what spot in the lottery to be specific.

[KB21]

Just now, shakes said:

If the Hawks lose tonight what draft pick do they get?  Or what spot in the lottery to be specific.

10

[KB21]

If Sacramento beats New Orleans, I think they will end up conveying the 16th pick to the Hawks.  I'm not 100% on that though.  It will either be 15 or 16 I think, depending upon the tiebreaker with Miami.

[shakes]

48 minutes ago, KB21 said:

10

tonight is a must lose game!    Can still get a good player at #10, someone really good might even slip that far.  

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, shakes said:

tonight is a must lose game!    Can still get a good player at #10, someone really good might even slip that far.  

Thing is, win tonight and lose the next game, and we still pick 10th.  If we win and get in, we pick 15th.  Could potentially have 15th and 16th picks.  

[kg01]

6 minutes ago, shakes said:

tonight is a must lose game!    Can still get a good player at #10, someone really good might even slip that far.  

Eff all them picks. 

[shakes]

14 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Thing is, win tonight and lose the next game, and we still pick 10th.  If we win and get in, we pick 15th.  Could potentially have 15th and 16th picks.  

why chance it?  Get that loss tonight and be done with it, start prepping for the draft.  Could be a massive diference between 10 and 15.

[KB21]

11 minutes ago, shakes said:

why chance it?  Get that loss tonight and be done with it, start prepping for the draft.  Could be a massive diference between 10 and 15.

In this draft, not really IMO.

[Spud2nique]

37 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Eff all them picks. 

We are on the same wave length today!  

[shakes]

14 minutes ago, KB21 said:

In this draft, not really IMO.

draft is weak, but outside chance someone like CDub could slip.  Seen him mocked anywhere from #2 to outside the top 10.

[KB21]

29 minutes ago, shakes said:

draft is weak, but outside chance someone like CDub could slip.  Seen him mocked anywhere from #2 to outside the top 10.

...and I like him long term as a prospect.  I'm 100% on board with using the 10th pick on Cody Williams if he drops to that pick, which is a lot more likely now than it was 2 months ago.  I'm also high on Ron Holland.  However, I don't see Cody as a player who will make an impact at all his rookie year.  He's going to be a College Park guy who plays sparingly, but I do agree that he can be very good with proper development.  I have no issue with wanting him.  

I don't see him or Holland as players we just absolutely have to have though.  That's the thing with this draft.  I personally don't see anyone that we just absolutely have to have.  I see guys who could potentially be long term pieces after developing properly in Hawks University.  Part of developing properly is that you do not just lose games intentionally.  

I don't see a single player in this draft that I feel would start or play major minutes for the Hawks this year.  Even if we got the #1 pick and drafted Sarr, I doubt he does much as a rookie.  

Just as I would have no issue with Williams/Holland at 10, I'd also have no issue with someone like Tristan Da Silva at 15 or even getting him at 15 and following that up with the best defender in the draft Ryan Dunn if that King's pick conveys.  

[KB21]

Remember that this team's most pressing need is perimeter POA defenders.  Outside of Hunter, who is an average POA defender, and Kobe Bufkin who is developing, we don't have any POA defenders on this team.  That's why I'm really liking Ryan Dunn for the Hawks, even though his offense is trash right now.  Herb Jones was a 49% FT shooter and 24% three-point shooter during his sophomore year in college, but he was hell on wheels defensively.  The Hawks have wanted Herb Jones in any deal with New Orleans, and I think Ryan Dunn fits that Herb Jones mold.  

[shakes]

6 minutes ago, KB21 said:

...and I like him long term as a prospect.  I'm 100% on board with using the 10th pick on Cody Williams if he drops to that pick, which is a lot more likely now than it was 2 months ago.  I'm also high on Ron Holland.  However, I don't see Cody as a player who will make an impact at all his rookie year.  He's going to be a College Park guy who plays sparingly, but I do agree that he can be very good with proper development.  I have no issue with wanting him.  

I don't see him or Holland as players we just absolutely have to have though.  That's the thing with this draft.  I personally don't see anyone that we just absolutely have to have.  I see guys who could potentially be long term pieces after developing properly in Hawks University.  Part of developing properly is that you do not just lose games intentionally.  

I don't see a single player in this draft that I feel would start or play major minutes for the Hawks this year.  Even if we got the #1 pick and drafted Sarr, I doubt he does much as a rookie.  

Just as I would have no issue with Williams/Holland at 10, I'd also have no issue with someone like Tristan Da Silva at 15 or even getting him at 15 and following that up with the best defender in the draft Ryan Dunn if that King's pick conveys.  

 

 

If we ended up with Da Silva at 15 and CDbub is there at #10 that will be a total disaster.

 

Agree that CDub is a project and won't be ready to contribute much at first, but he has the best genes in the draft and a better starting frame than his big brother.    Might have tghe most upside of any player in the draft.

[kg01]

45 minutes ago, KB21 said:

In this draft, not really IMO.

This is the fallacy of this draft stuff.  There's good players in the draft.  But the idea that any of them at 10 are so much greater than whoever will be there at 15 that they're worth losing today to secure the option of taking him?  Nah. 

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, kg01 said:

This is the fallacy of this draft stuff.  There's good players in the draft.  But the idea that any of them at 10 are so much greater than whoever will be there at 15 that they're worth losing today to secure the option of taking him?  Nah. 

It is not hard to come up with counterexamples like how much better the Hawks would have been had they lost the extra games to get the 15th pick and get Giannis.  But those are just anecdotes and benefit from hindsight.

In this case, I'm split.

On the one hand, I don't like to root for my Hawks to lose and so will be cheering for them if they beat the Bulls.  But what is the upside here?  I'm not seeing much given that I am confident we are going to get destroyed in the first round of the playoffs if we emerge from the play-in games and the guys who most need the playoff experience (JJ and OO) won't even be available to play.  I don't think Trae, Capela, DJM, Hunter, etc. are going to learn a ton from that.  So upside for me is limited.

On the other hand, it is tough to know how much difference the 10 versus the 15 pick makes.  Most clearly, the 10 is better for trade purposes as it comes with the cache of being a lottery pick and anyone who would trade for it probably has a specific player in mind who may not be on the board at 15 like if Cody Williams is there.   On the other hand, we don't have the benefit of hindsight and so this is a tough draft to really be able to identify who will be the breakout players (if we did they would be drafted before we pick in either case) so there is real uncertainty as to whether it will make any real difference.  (If you wanted to draft Jimmy Butler it didn't really matter if you had the 10th, 15th, or 25th pick.  He was there in all cases.)  Now one thing to note with the 10th pick is there is a 14% chance it turns out to be a top 4 pick.  (13.9% to be exact).  That is a meaningful %.  Probably won't happen but it is pretty likely that one or more teams will jump into the top of the lottery in the aggregate.  (The Kings did it two years ago to take Keegan Murray and the Raptors did the year before to take Scottie Barnes).

So I'm not going to root against my Hawks but I also won't feel bad at all if they lose given who we are missing and the fact that the front office believes in this team's playoff prospects so little that they took away a key rotation player for the playoff roster (Vit).  

[JayBirdHawk]

Kings chances of winning just increased.

 

 

[KB21]

Landry should put the screws to New Orleans and pretty much tell them that if they want Murray and OO, that they have to give up Trey Murphy or Herb Jones.  I can't tell you how bad I want to see Trey Murphy on this team!!  I wanted him in the 21 draft.

[bird_dirt]

4 hours ago, shakes said:

If the Hawks lose tonight what draft pick do they get?  Or what spot in the lottery to be specific.