Hawks playoffs... A look back...

[Diesel]

 

 

 

I'm not master of advanced Analytics.. But I wanted to start here with PER.

Trae, DJ and Bogi all in the Top 20 of PER for the Playoffs. 

This is an interesting list...  Shows how well players are doing based on the proficiency. 

Also..  Bogi leads the playoffs in TS%.

So my question... Why didn't we play Bogi More?  Championship Bogi was in the building and we put him on the bench. 

 

[Gray Mule]

Good question.  I also wonder, why was Jalen Johnson's minutes so limited in our last game.  Was he injured or ill?  He had the least minutes of the bench.  Also, the bench all had a (+) for all four players.

Dissapointed when, in an earlier game, score said, "It's over" but no Griffin.  I know that he didn't have experience and had hit the rookie wall.  Just think he deserved that final two minutes.

[Diesel]

I believe we will see much more of JJ and AJ in the future. 

The game 6 was nip and tuck...  No place for a rookie who has hit the wall. 

 

[Gray Mule]

45 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I believe we will see much more of JJ and AJ in the future. 

The game 6 was nip and tuck...  No place for a rookie who has hit the wall. 

 

Agreed.  I'm thinking of an earlier game when the Hawks were buried, two minutes left and no slim chance of coming back.  There was a time out.  Starters returned to the floor.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

 

 

 

I'm not master of advanced Analytics.. But I wanted to start here with PER.

Trae, DJ and Bogi all in the Top 20 of PER for the Playoffs. 

This is an interesting list...  Shows how well players are doing based on the proficiency. 

Also..  Bogi leads the playoffs in TS%.

So my question... Why didn't we play Bogi More?  Championship Bogi was in the building and we put him on the bench. 

 

 

We didn't play him more because that means someone comes off the floor between Hunter, Collins, and Capela.

There will have to be scenarios going into next season in which Trae - Murray - Bogi, in my opinion, must be on the floor together.  But this will make us extremely undersized at 4 positions, possibly 5. This means we need to get way tougher than what we are right now.

If we throw out a lineup of Trae - Murray - Bogi - Hunter - Collins/Capela/Okongwu, it means those first 4 players must improve their defense and defensive activity to a level they've never played at before.  And the big thing is making sure you slow down guys trying to take them off the dribble, and making sure they secure defensive rebounds.

• Our starting lineup was poor vs Boston, with Trae's inability to get in the paint and draw fouls, and Capela's offensive suppression, being the main factor in that.
• Bogi brought the most ( + ) play to the lineups.  Matter of fact, he was the only guy who was ( + ) on the floor in that series.
• In the regular season, Bogi was best in the lineups with Bey and AJ. In the playoffs, he was best with Hunter and Trae . . but horrible with Bey.

I think Quin tried to keep our defensive integrity by playing Bogi only when we needed offense. The gag is, that we needed offense even more, if we couldn't stop Boston. 

In that series, Bogi should've played starter's minutes, instead of the 26 minutes per game that he played.  And he only played 19 minutes in Game 6, where he was actually scoring and was +8 for the game.

Truth be told, the little defense we did play in that series was provided by Hunter and Collins. Capela had his moments, but was overall an offensive liability. 

With Boston pretty much killing the Trae - Capela pick and roll, we may as well put another offensive player out on the floor to pair with Trae - Murray - Hunter - and Collins.

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

There will have to be scenarios going into next season in which Trae - Murray - Bogi, in my opinion, must be on the floor together.  But this will make us extremely undersized at 4 positions, possibly 5. This means we need to get way tougher than what we are right now.

I been looking over Mike Brem's playbook and what he did at Notre Dame and what Quin did at Utah.  I think what we do next year is going to be totally different than what we have been doing since Trae got here.   Quin had to build a strong level of trust with Trae and the team. 

I heard what Landry said but unless there is some trade that Bowls us over like KAT... I don't see JC going anywhere.  He has all the abilities that we need in a 4.  He will have to develop his grown man body a little more so that he can be stronger in the post; especially defensively. 

I was thinking would we consider trading Bogi?  My answer came back resolutely no.  We need more shooters period.  As a team, our shooting from distance is poor.

But for next year... I can see this...

Spoiler

Motion, Motion, Motion offense. 

 

[Diesel]

8 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Our starting lineup was poor vs Boston, with Trae's inability to get in the paint and draw fouls, and Capela's offensive suppression, being the main factor in that.

I don't know why we didn't employ the 1-5 PNR more.   It's like we were scared to make Boston respond to it.   It worked on occassions and then we went away from it.   The same thing with JC in the post.   If we can spread the floor and get JC in the paint... that's 2 points.   JC was Killing Brogdon and White in the post.  But our mentality is too much your turn, my turn.  That's the stuff that Trae has to learn.  He has to learn how to be a floor general.   And the floor general strategizes.   I think that's why it's good to have Quin here.   Quin will teach him how to understand the offense.   However, with that, Trae has to get into the mindset that if it's working, keep going to it.   Change when the defense changes.  He knows how to do it for himself.   He needs to learn how to do it for an offensive scheme.

 

 

 

[Diesel]

12 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Bogi brought the most ( + ) play to the lineups.  Matter of fact, he was the only guy who was ( + ) on the floor in that series.

This was the best of Bogi.   His drives and him knowing when to drive vs. when to shoot was magnificent.   He's master and commander and then we take him off the floor.   What a shame. 

 

[Diesel]

14 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Truth be told, the little defense we did play in that series was provided by Hunter and Collins. Capela had his moments, but was overall an offensive liability. 

With Boston pretty much killing the Trae - Capela pick and roll, we may as well put another offensive player out on the floor to pair with Trae - Murray - Hunter - and Collins.

There were two things that I think spooked Quin...

us playing Small ball and us playing bogi instead of Murray. 

First the Small ball. 

JC, Hunter, Bogi, Murray, and Trae could have gotten some traction.   Especially with Horford on the floor.   We were so scared of RWIII but he was in foul trouble for a lot of game 6.   We had no answer for Brown, White, or Brogdan... so that means we match offense with offense.  Especially when we were up 7. 

Second replace Murray with Bogi.

OO, JC, Hunter, Bogi, and Trae... I think we finished game 5 with this unit.  We should have payed it in game 6.   There's nothing wrong with Murray.... I just think he had a slow start but we need the TS% .700 Bogi out there to help open the floor. 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

57 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Truth be told, the little defense we did play in that series was provided by Hunter and Collins. Capela had his moments, but was overall an offensive liability. 

CC's offensive limitations needed to be offset by stellar defense and rebounding. Unfortunately he didn't give us enough of that to make it worth the minutes he played, particularly in G6.

[Plainview1981]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

I don't know why we didn't employ the 1-5 PNR more.   It's like we were scared to make Boston respond to it.   It worked on occassions and then we went away from it.   The same thing with JC in the post.   If we can spread the floor and get JC in the paint... that's 2 points.   JC was Killing Brogdon and White in the post.  But our mentality is too much your turn, my turn.  That's the stuff that Trae has to learn.  He has to learn how to be a floor general.   And the floor general strategizes.   I think that's why it's good to have Quin here.   Quin will teach him how to understand the offense.   However, with that, Trae has to get into the mindset that if it's working, keep going to it.   Change when the defense changes.  He knows how to do it for himself.   He needs to learn how to do it for an offensive scheme.

 

 

 

The fact that we can say Trae needs to learn to be a floor general more despite averaging 10 APG says that the stat on its own is overhyped.

[Diesel]

Just now, Plainview1981 said:

The fact that we can say Trae needs to learn to be a floor general more despite averaging 10 APG says that the stat on its own is overhyped.

Not True.

Trae makes passes that most PGs can't make and he does pass so that it ends in a score.   Trae doesn't pass if it doesn't end in a score.  Not often.  That's why we are one of the lowest passing teams.   Floor Generals do both... AND they manage the game.   Trae doesn't yet manage the game.  He manages scores but not the whole offense. 

So.. it's actually the exact opposite of what you say.  Trae will probably lead the league over overall scores (His  + Assists)  That in itself makes him not overhyped.  I think he gets bored with the game management part though.   He's always seeking to see what else he can do.   When he becomes a better Floor General, he will be like a coach on the floor.  Instead of continually trying new stuff, he will break it down to doing things to make the defense collapse because he knows what he wants to do after that.

It's the difference between a guy like Bill Walsh and a guy like Parcells.  Parcells would look at the defense and say.. they are in this configuration, we will run this.   Bill Walsh would start the game and run 21 plays... all different...  Then later in the game, he would look at the 21 plays he ran and figure out the best ones to run against the defense.   Some people would say that Walsh wasn't a master of his offense and Parcells was more of a general.  It's just two different ways to approach.  What Trae does works but I believe he'd be more successful if he could look at what the defense is giving him and know what to do and do it until the defense changes. 

 

 

[Plainview1981]

49 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Not True.

Trae makes passes that most PGs can't make and he does pass so that it ends in a score.   Trae doesn't pass if it doesn't end in a score.  Not often.  That's why we are one of the lowest passing teams.   Floor Generals do both... AND they manage the game.   Trae doesn't yet manage the game.  He manages scores but not the whole offense. 

So.. it's actually the exact opposite of what you say.  Trae will probably lead the league over overall scores (His  + Assists)  That in itself makes him not overhyped.  I think he gets bored with the game management part though.   He's always seeking to see what else he can do.   When he becomes a better Floor General, he will be like a coach on the floor.  Instead of continually trying new stuff, he will break it down to doing things to make the defense collapse because he knows what he wants to do after that.

It's the difference between a guy like Bill Walsh and a guy like Parcells.  Parcells would look at the defense and say.. they are in this configuration, we will run this.   Bill Walsh would start the game and run 21 plays... all different...  Then later in the game, he would look at the 21 plays he ran and figure out the best ones to run against the defense.   Some people would say that Walsh wasn't a master of his offense and Parcells was more of a general.  It's just two different ways to approach.  What Trae does works but I believe he'd be more successful if he could look at what the defense is giving him and know what to do and do it until the defense changes. 

 

 

"That in itself makes him not overhyped. "

My point was to basically say that just averaging 10APG in stats doesn't make someone a great PG on its own. Just because of that basic stat.

Even though Trae is part of the current discussion here, my comment isn't exclusive to Trae.

I'm not confident that Trae will become a better floor general because he will have to humble himself to accept that there are flaws within his offensive game.

Great players can adjust their game as they age. Like how MJ changed his game as he got older. Can coaching help guide Trae to accept the flaws in his current though process?

I'm not convinced it will happen.

[hylndr11]

maybe we get lucky and JC gets his finger wacked off and goes back to shooting a nice clip at 3.  

[Diesel]

38 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

"That in itself makes him not overhyped. "

My point was to basically say that just averaging 10APG in stats doesn't make someone a great PG on its own. Just because of that basic stat.

Even though Trae is part of the current discussion here, my comment isn't exclusive to Trae.

I'm not confident that Trae will become a better floor general because he will have to humble himself to accept that there are flaws within his offensive game.

Great players can adjust their game as they age. Like how MJ changed his game as he got older. Can coaching help guide Trae to accept the flaws in his current though process?

I'm not convinced it will happen.

I agree that some greats change their games.   Some don't.  MJ did because it made him more impactful.   Remember, MJ started off as a dunker and ended up as one of the best Midrange shooters in history.  We marvel at his "Versatility" but the truth is that it helped him remain the best scorer on the floor.  His dunking had limitations with age. 

Kobe however, never changed.   Does it mean he never evolved?  His game was so elevated from the start, there was not much need to evolve.  Remember, he copied his game from MJ.  The MJ he copied was an MJ that had already passed the stage of dunking over people. He copied the Jordan that could dunk and hit the midrange shot. 

 

[Diesel]

43 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

Great players can adjust their game as they age.

 

This deserves Challenge!

Kobe didn't adjust.

Iverson never adjusted.

KG and Timmy D never adjusted.

Magic never adjusted.

Stockton nor Malone ever adjusted. 

Has Lebron adjusted his game?  That one is questionable.

Dirk and Larry Bird never adjusted...

CP3 hasn't adjusted. 

JKidd didn't really adjust. 

 

Really.. only Jordan is the clear cut case of a guy adjusting his game due to age.   And Kevin Love.. if you want to call him great.   And Larry Johnson. 

 

15 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

maybe we get lucky and JC gets his finger wacked off and goes back to shooting a nice clip at 3.  

JC has to improve his strength.   So does Murray.  Otherwise, he's fine.

 

[Plainview1981]

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

 

This deserves Challenge!

Kobe didn't adjust.

Iverson never adjusted.

KG and Timmy D never adjusted.

Magic never adjusted.

Stockton nor Malone ever adjusted. 

Has Lebron adjusted his game?  That one is questionable.

Dirk and Larry Bird never adjusted...

CP3 hasn't adjusted. 

JKidd didn't really adjust. 

 

Really.. only Jordan is the clear cut case of a guy adjusting his game due to age.   And Kevin Love.. if you want to call him great.   And Larry Johnson. 

 

JC has to improve his strength.   So does Murray.  Otherwise, he's fine.

 

They all achieved success. It's going to be really hard for Trae to have long term winning as the main guy without becoming a better Floor General.

Trying to build a contender around such a dominant PG that struggles to shoot and is not a good floor general is a recipe for dissapointing playoff performances. Even though he doesn't technically play PG, you have some of the same issue with a James Harden.

[Diesel]

15 hours ago, Plainview1981 said:

They all achieved success. It's going to be really hard for Trae to have long term winning as the main guy without becoming a better Floor General.

Trying to build a contender around such a dominant PG that struggles to shoot and is not a good floor general is a recipe for dissapointing playoff performances. Even though he doesn't technically play PG, you have some of the same issue with a James Harden.

Subject change??

Most of them had late achieved success.  Look how Long Dirk had to wait to win a title.   KG had to leave Minny before he could win a chip.  CP3 is still searching.   My point is that who you play with is just as big as what skills you bring.   Timmy D was dropped into a great situation.   He went to a championship Spurs team who had already come up with a formulation for winning.  Kobe was dropped into a great situation.   He was partnered with the most dominant player in the game.   Dirk and Kidd had to get the right teams around them to win. 

Young KG was more talented than Championship KG but he had to wait.   Kevin Love would have never won a chip had he not got a call from Lebron.   Wade without Lebron or Shaq never won nothing. 

Kobe is the only player that has ever taken non allstars to the chip and won it.  What are you expecting of Trae.  Are you expecting Trae to do what only one other NBA player in History to do?  Even in 2008, Pau was a fringe Allstar.  He wasn't an allstar, but he was close.   So Kobe drug a team with no other big name help to the championship and won it.  DJ may not ever be an allstar again.   He's in the east.   So you're expecting Trae to drag a group of mediocre talent to the finals and win it...   

 

 

[Plainview1981]

On 4/30/2023 at 7:50 AM, Diesel said:

Subject change??

Most of them had late achieved success.  Look how Long Dirk had to wait to win a title.   KG had to leave Minny before he could win a chip.  CP3 is still searching.   My point is that who you play with is just as big as what skills you bring.   Timmy D was dropped into a great situation.   He went to a championship Spurs team who had already come up with a formulation for winning.  Kobe was dropped into a great situation.   He was partnered with the most dominant player in the game.   Dirk and Kidd had to get the right teams around them to win. 

Young KG was more talented than Championship KG but he had to wait.   Kevin Love would have never won a chip had he not got a call from Lebron.   Wade without Lebron or Shaq never won nothing. 

Kobe is the only player that has ever taken non allstars to the chip and won it.  What are you expecting of Trae.  Are you expecting Trae to do what only one other NBA player in History to do?  Even in 2008, Pau was a fringe Allstar.  He wasn't an allstar, but he was close.   So Kobe drug a team with no other big name help to the championship and won it.  DJ may not ever be an allstar again.   He's in the east.   So you're expecting Trae to drag a group of mediocre talent to the finals and win it...   

 

 

I don't think he has the mentally to be a real leader. He is too much about himself.

He doesn't appear to be a critical thinker either. I don't think he has it within him to come to grips with his weaknesses on the offensive and change things. He will continue to think his shot selection is ok, and he will still think he is a really good outside shooter.

While the offseason was not great, management did get help.... The team still took a step  back this year.

 

Even if one wanted to argue trae has the talent, he doesnt have the mindset.

 

 

[AHF]

On 4/30/2023 at 7:50 AM, Diesel said:

Subject change??

Most of them had late achieved success.  Look how Long Dirk had to wait to win a title.   KG had to leave Minny before he could win a chip.  CP3 is still searching.   My point is that who you play with is just as big as what skills you bring.   Timmy D was dropped into a great situation.   He went to a championship Spurs team who had already come up with a formulation for winning.  Kobe was dropped into a great situation.   He was partnered with the most dominant player in the game.   Dirk and Kidd had to get the right teams around them to win. 

Young KG was more talented than Championship KG but he had to wait.   Kevin Love would have never won a chip had he not got a call from Lebron.   Wade without Lebron or Shaq never won nothing. 

Kobe is the only player that has ever taken non allstars to the chip and won it.  What are you expecting of Trae.  Are you expecting Trae to do what only one other NBA player in History to do?  Even in 2008, Pau was a fringe Allstar.  He wasn't an allstar, but he was close.   So Kobe drug a team with no other big name help to the championship and won it.  DJ may not ever be an allstar again.   He's in the east.   So you're expecting Trae to drag a group of mediocre talent to the finals and win it...   

 

 

Just have to point a couple things out that don’t undermine your point.  Gasol was not only a 6x All-Star he was also 4x All-NBA and 5x All-Defense.  He was an All-Star and All-NBA Defense before he was a Laker.   He was 10x top 20 in rebounding and 10x top 20 in blocked shots to go with stellar offense.  Definitely better than you give him credit for.  He also led the Lakers over Kobe in Win Shares when they win their first title - he was 4th in the entire NBA that season and All-NBA.  Plenty of other talent on that team led by Bynum and Odom.  That was no one man show even though Kobe still deserves a ton of credit for those teams.  

General rule is that nobody does it without major help.