Scheduled games coming up.... Hard...Co

[sturt]

11 hours ago, thecampster said:

Hawks = better defensively so far and the Jazz are worse....he's the main common denominator

 

Quinn, at least as I had understood it, kept most of Nate's offense and defense last season, and overhauled this season.

Fair to say that might matter?

 

Collins, as I understand it, has mostly replaced Vanderbilt for the Jazz. Jazz have went from almost 117 DRtg to, so far, 121 DRtg.

Vanderbilt's DRtg for last season was 4 points (!) below the team DRtg, suggesting that he was a major force for the better defensively.

Collins' DRtg almost 10 games into the season is 1 point below the team DRtg, suggesting that he's slightly helped the team DRtg, but nothing like Vanderbilt did.

Fair to say that might matter?

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 11/11/2023 at 8:17 PM, sturt said:

 

I mean, seriously, friends... the quickest way to ensure this team never makes a move to get over the hump is for Tony Ressler and his minions to read things on this site that serve to reassure him you'll forgive him for a third and a fourth and a fifth salary dump of a major asset. Hamsterland on the horizon if your reaction to this kind of thing is to put your collective arm around Tony's shoulder and empathize with his "pain". Dr. Phil-ism is right... best predictor of future behavior is immediate past behavior. Jay, too, has been right on that one, far ahead of me... she's been the lead skeptic on paying tax for years now, in spite of Tony's occasional reassurances to the contrary.

Be well.

Name 2 moves you'd like to see the Hawks make, that would convince you that they're trying to get over the hump.  

Be specific, please.

[AHF]

@sturt - What do think we would see from our frontcourt rotation with JC still on the roster if your prediction of JJ getting major minutes played out?

If I had to guess, I'd say something like this:

Hunter - 28 (SF)  (actual 30.6)

Bogi - 8 (SF - rest of the time at guard) (actual 25)

AJ - 0 (actual ~6)

Bey - 24 (12 SF / 12 PF) (actual 27.6)

JJ - 20 (PF) (actual 29.3)

JC - 20 (16 PF / 4 C) (actual 0 for the Hawks)

OO - 21 (C) (actual 22.6)

CC - 23 (C) (actual 24.8)

 

It may be that I've soured a bit on JC's impact over the last couple of years, but I'm having a hard time seeing time for everyone here that translates into a rotation that really improves the team.

I do suspect that Quin was on board moving on from JC and turning the reigns over to JJ and Bey this year at PF.  He is too classy to publicly savage JC or anything so I think it is purely speculation from any of us whether he wanted to coach JC.

I remain of the mind that Bey and JJ are doing a very good job at the PF slot this year and that JC isn't particularly missed there due to their positive impact on the team.  I also remain unhappy that we got zero value from the trade.  Even if JC was purely superfluous and addition by subtraction (which I think is overstating things but for the sake of argument), it hurts not to have added something of real value to make this team better this season in return for him.

[sturt]

36 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Name 2 moves you'd like to see the Hawks make, that would convince you that they're trying to get over the hump.  

Be specific, please.

Ordinarily, these days, I only visit HS with any openness to engaging a conversation on weekends, but I can make this quick, and out of respect to you, North.

I won't say there is absolutely none, but I will say 99% there is none. Maybe there's something that I can't imagine. But I can't.

 

Look. When Tony made the JC trade, either another shoe had to drop almost immediately that would have made the first shoe make sense, or not.

"Not" happened. (Obviously.)

 

Surely I don't need to rehearse this in November, but I'm going to say it anyway. You had a starter quality asset on the roster. You had a starter quality asset, still yet, who had arguably been the most cooperative, most forgiving, most congenial personality on the team. Yes, he'd regressed in scoring production since his finger accident, but more recently there had been reason to believe JC was turning the corner on that. And no, there was no reason to believe JC would be a complainer if JJ's training camp dictated he would become the starter. You had a new coach who plausibly could also be a significant catalyst in JC's getting back to the force he's been... I mean, if the player was 30 years old, maybe there's an argument that the stock was hopelessly bottomed out, but conventionally speaking, JC's headed into his prime career years.

One could not ask for a scenario that more vividly illuminates an owner's true mindset.

He conned me into believing all these years that he genuinely wanted first and foremost to achieve a championship... that the financial side was secondary.

Practically speaking, there is no other way to interpret that trade but as a salary dump. The roster is weaker than it could have been.

 

I repeat, True to Atlanta, my ass.

 

(AHF, I see you just now posted something, but at a glance, that looks like something that would require a longer dive... forgive me that that one's going to wait until Saturday.)

[Spud2nique]

On 11/11/2023 at 9:59 PM, sturt said:

Quinn

Only one Q on Quin playa, carry on..

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

(AHF, I see you just now posted something, but at a glance, that looks like something that would require a longer dive... forgive me that that one's going to wait until Saturday.)

Not a problem at all.  My primary comment was around who you think would take a hit in minutes if JC was still on the roster and how much of a net positive that would be.  I think JJ would take the biggest hit to minutes given my assumption that OO and CC would dominate the center minutes and JJ would not have a lot of opportunity to log time at SF given the alternatives.  I have been thrilled with JJ and think the more minutes the better and that I'd rather have JJ minutes there than JC minutes there this season.  I think he has been making consistently impactful plays on both sides of the ball.  He might fall off from where he has been but right now I see any cut to his minutes as a net negative.

[JayBirdHawk]

6-4 in our 1st 10.

Next 10...4 straight at home to start, then a 5 game roadie. Need to make these home games matter.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

The slow starts are annoying, especially at home.

[sturt]

On 11/13/2023 at 10:44 AM, AHF said:

who you think would take a hit in minutes if JC was still on the roster

 

Any theory I would offer would be based on what I saw last season mainly, since I'm not engaged this one. My general thought would be that JC would (a) flip his 2022-23 end-of-season minutes with JJ's 2022-23 end-of-season minutes, but also (b) it's not all that absurd to me to think that he'd pick up some C minutes as you've suggested, as well.

 

On 11/13/2023 at 9:14 AM, AHF said:

I remain of the mind that Bey and JJ are doing a very good job at the PF

Bey? That's strange to me to hear, given his history... he has the girth but little else for that position. But maybe Quin's already made some major difference. Wouldn't pretend to know.

(Take note, readers, not just of the fact that his PF net production numbers are consistently in the red, but that you subtract then that number from whatever his SF number is, so you see clearly the delta between playing SF vs. PF historically. The pattern is clear.)

 

On 11/13/2023 at 9:14 AM, AHF said:

I do suspect that Quin was on board moving on from JC

I have no strong evidence either way, and/but because of the absurdity of the terms of the deal, it's hard for me to imagine any coach under penalty of perjury preferring not to have a starter-type asset of JC's caliber on his roster... even if it were just for the sake of injury insurance, the only reasonable justification is the same justification anyone and everyone otherwise acknowledges... this wasn't for Quin, it was for Tony.

What weak evidence there is, though, is that Quin had such consistently positive things to say about JC's play last time I was giving my time to watching Quin's pressers... and by that I mean I recall Quin bringing up JC, not waiting for a question about him.

 

Final thought. Small sample size alert, just 40 shots. But early on, the Baptist is hitting his 3s for the Jazz at a career high clip... .425 per basketball-reference tonight. That, though, combined with how he finished last season gives a lot of reason for seller's remorse, at least among those convinced Collins' finger would forever more keep him from being able to shoot decent again.

 

 

 

[AHF]

I was never one who bought in on JC being done when/if his finger got healthy and end of the year looked much healthier.  I wouldn’t trade JJ for him though even ignoring salary.  So JJ’s success makes this an easier pill to swallow.

Fwiw, if we are looking at +\- this season, JC is strongly negative.  If my eyeballing is right about -5 per game average.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I wouldn’t trade JJ for him though even ignoring salary.  So JJ’s success makes this an easier pill to swallow.

 

False dichotomy, though, AHF.

You know this. We've been talking about it. That's not the legitimate comparison/contrast.

 

Jalen doesn't play 48 minutes. No one does.

 

I just looked. There are 18-ish minutes at PF per game that Collins would have been getting for the most part if not entirely if not for Tony Ressler... JJ played 15-ish last season in the games he entered. Add another 5-ish on average on nights that it's obvious that OO and CC are having struggles or playing hurt...

 

I mean, I get it, it's really really important to circle wagons here, even if it means extending grace to the owner... I get it on the surface, I should say... I don't get it, once given any closer scrutiny... you're only putting out a vibe that will only encourage the owner to do this same thing this off-season, and the one after that, and the one after that... and moreover, it's not as-if JC has went to Utah and got buried on their bench because he really deserves some scrub-status assessment... no, he's starting, and getting the same minutes there as he did in ATL.

He's an asset, like he's always been here. Damn, he just turned 26 friggin years old. We're not discussing, as we were this time last year, the virtue or vice of hanging on to Justin Holiday, s'helpme.

The determination to defend against public seller's remorse is too thick, though maybe should be expected.

Tony's got to be happy... saves himself money, and fans just keep swallowing his True to ATL BS as-if Russell Stover chocolates... even smiling and resisting objection when they get that evil licorice flavor syrup in the middle... who eats that and smiles???... why??? (... ie JC salary dump).

 

 

 

 

 

[sturt]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

if we are looking at +\- this season, JC is strongly negative.

You're one of my favorite posters. A big reason for that is you at least you have some basic respect for critical thought, for arguing with yourself--sometimes a lot, sometimes a little. While you have strong opinions like I do, you try to set some context for your conclusions that appreciates the fuller picture that may or may not support those conclusions.

And and, you're not above changing your mind if substantial reason arises, or at least, considering changing your mind. You'll dig in, sometimes hard, but sometimes soft. You aspire to the intellectual humility thing as I try to do.

 

So, you're to be forgiven for limiting your statement this once... the fuller picture looks like this...

 

 

Edit: And... oops... holding myself accountable here... after doing the screenshot, I realize that there probably should be some red squares highlighting the down 2pt% and FT%.

[AHF]

5 hours ago, sturt said:

You're one of my favorite posters. A big reason for that is you at least you have some basic respect for critical thought, for arguing with yourself--sometimes a lot, sometimes a little. While you have strong opinions like I do, you try to set some context for your conclusions that appreciates the fuller picture that may or may not support those conclusions.

And and, you're not above changing your mind if substantial reason arises, or at least, considering changing your mind. You'll dig in, sometimes hard, but sometimes soft. You aspire to the intellectual humility thing as I try to do.

 

So, you're to be forgiven for limiting your statement this once... the fuller picture looks like this...

 

 

Edit: And... oops... holding myself accountable here... after doing the screenshot, I realize that there probably should be some red squares highlighting the down 2pt% and FT%.

Two short comments:

 

1 - I don’t value +\- very much at this point in the season.  So I’m not really looking at it except for entertainment value.  I’m not dunking on JC for it.  Just a number that bears watching to see if it plays out going forward.

2 - Both Bey and JC are in new situations this year so I don’t rely heavily on their prior +\- numbers.  Unlike shooting stats and similar numbers that can generally be expected to normalize to career averages over time, +\- numbers are heavily team and role dependent.  Bey’s role has changed this year so I’m interested to see if his numbers at PF change.  JC is in an entirely new situation this year so while I might be inclined to lean on his Hawks history if he was still starting for the Hawks I’m not going to assume he holds the same numbers in Utah.  TBD.

[JayBirdHawk]

After a big fumble at home losing 3 of 4, Hawks now head out for a 5 game road trip in 8 days with one back to back and lots of travel miles.

Our last 2 games, our starters have played a ton of minutes and a frenetic pace. Will be interesting to see if Quin utilizes more of the bench.

 

 

[JeffS17]

55 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

After a big fumble at home losing 3 of 4, Hawks now head out for a 5 game road trip in 8 days with one back to back and lots of travel miles.

Our last 2 games, our starters have played a ton of minutes and a frenetic pace. Will be interesting to see if Quin utilizes more of the bench.

 

 

Yeah, good point.  Id like to see AJ get some minutes… going to need him to be “Bogi-like” sooner than later.  

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

Id like to see AJ get some minutes…

I’ve been giving him more burn in 2K too, as with OO and JJ (ya cageeeyyyy JJ this kid IQ is way better than I thought, hence the passing and assists). 

[bird_dirt]

22 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

After a big fumble at home losing 3 of 4, Hawks now head out for a 5 game road trip in 8 days with one back to back and lots of travel miles.

Our last 2 games, our starters have played a ton of minutes and a frenetic pace. Will be interesting to see if Quin utilizes more of the bench.

 

 

Who are the Hawks playing in West Virginia?

[Spud2nique]

9 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

Who are the Hawks playing in West Virginia?

We hate Boston!!!! We don’t even wanna go there  

[JayBirdHawk]

14 December games:

5 at Home, 9 on the road. Already lost the 1st one.

 

[AHF]

13-17 coming into January is my baseline.  Better than that and that will be welcome.  Worse than that and I'm not happy with that result.