Has Hawk improvemnt been outpaced by EC improvemnt

[Guest Walter]

Charlotte is significantly better, Boston is significantly better. Two teams that should remain ahead or pass us respectively. Indy isn't better, but they were ahead of us and I'm not sure how much better we are. Milwaulkee was already worse and Yi is a couple year's away (assuming he signs for them).

I still think we're on the outside looking in playoffs-wise. That's a terrible indictment of BK and his performance. With the extent of his draft capital we should easily have been able to out-pace not only the rebuilds of others (Charlotte) but the improvement of the EC in general.

A bunch of piss poor picks (although I think Horford would be a good pick for a team that needs a Pf, particularly one with a 4.5 at center, at center next to a 3.5 he isn't a very good pick AT ALL) in high lottery situations resulting in mediocre talent despite a [censored]-load of capital.

Meanwhile, I also believe we are handicapped by BK's notoriously awful coaching selection. We certainly do not possess a coaching advantage (no matter how we retain our coaches) over our competition.

Next year we will be faced with the beginning or YEARLY, large resignings, something that becomes increasing difficult to convince a player of doing if we aren't in contention and the front office/ownership if we can't even keep up with the EC rate of improvement on the current course.

I won't even begin to discuss our ownership situation.

Simply put, I don't think that we have the talent potential on this team of forwards to simply wait it out and hope beyond hope that they all meet or exceed their ceilings and I don't think that our improvement is on pace to not only exceed the improving EC but also the rebuilds of others. Certainly not enough that would afford title contention.

I know you guys will scream doomsday prophet no matter how accurate I have been in the past regarding this franchise's problems, needs, and front office inadequacies, but this rebuilding outpacing and overall improved EC are real concerns and necessitate a forward thinking, creative, bold GM. It calls for ingenuity (Portland's GM the last 2 years) and/or risk taking, much like what Ainge has done in Boston (the returns we'll see this year). I've never thought BK was that guy. I initially believed BK could start well a rebuilding project only to need to be replaced several years into it, but learned quickly that his all important talent evaluation skills were vastly over-rated, his creativity was all but non-existent, his team building ability even in the earliest of phases was disasterous, his coaching selection continues to be predictably comically poor, and his tact (SW promise, leak) and overall demeanor were chronically unprofessional. Even his reported strengths have been his greatest weaknesses and his weaknesses have remained...weak.

Is the ownership situation hamstringing moves? Undoubtedly. But we were intent upon building through the draft anyhow. Ownership doesn't impact that. Only a series of disasterous high lottery picks resulted in our currently limited player capital and uncertain future with regards to resigning a respectable number of these mediocre talented high picks that will still command a salary based upon some sense of potential. Had we Deng and Paul or Iggy and Deron and Roy, we COULD if want be, make moves because teams would desire them so much they would accomodate our situation. But likely we wouldn't want to trade in this situation, having the talent to best our rebuilding counterparts and the improving EC.

OK, flame away. Play the role of hyper-biased fan as best you can. I know, "we were playoff bound last year if only..." I don't buy it, others shouldn't, and the EC doesn't care.

W

[leftwich]

It all depends on whether anyone breaks out this season. You're assuming it's going to be the same team as last year, plus Horford and Law. If MW is going to break out, this is going to be the season.

[Guest Walter]

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It all depends on whether anyone breaks out this season. You're assuming it's going to be the same team as last year, plus Horford and Law. If MW is going to break out, this is going to be the season.

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Frankly, hinging this all to MW's star is not an attractive notion to me.

Moreover, this team might be "as good as it gets" for us as each of the next 4 years we have to resign 2, then 1, then 1, then 2 top pick prospects that will command a higher than usual salary if only because of their former draft positions and the word "potential" that comes with it. I can't see us coming out with any more than 3 of these players TOPS and while I like JS and even Horford to some extent, they play much the same position and neither are superstar quality players IMHO.

I'm saying we may already be mired in mediocrity. No we haven't won even enough games to constitute mediocre, but the talent we have is certainly capable of mediocre, just not near contention.

Unfortunately...

1) fellow rebuilders and the EC are improving

2) our coaching is bad

3) our team design is flawed

...enough that we can't expect to overcome any talent deficiencies.

W

[AtLaS]

I agree that BK sucks balls when it comes to everything GMing.

However, I think we'll be better than last year and I'm giving us about a 50% chance to make the playoffs. I think a healthy team will due us a huge favor (even if Woodson sucks), we were a .500 team for the first 20 games last year until we began getting injured. Not only that, just take a look at Toronto, for example. Most people pegged them a bottom 3 team in the east before the season began, and they ended up with the 3rd seed. Basically all they had was Bosh, then Ford had a breakout season and Calderon proved to be a great backup. Parker was a great role player and they meshed very well and ended up winning a bunch of games. The 04-05 Bulls is also a good example.

There is no way to tell how well we'll stack up against other teams in the east until we see this team play, and I personally feel much better about this team than I did last year.

[AnakinJoe]

I don't see how the addition of J-Rich to an oft-injured Charlotte team makes them significantly better. I don't know anything about Sam Vincent other than he is a first time Head Coach, which means he will not likely enjoy much if any first season success. I agree the Hawks do NOT appear to be a playoff team but let's not sit up here and act like the addition of J Rich means that Okafor and May are suddenly going to play 78 games next season.

Woodson is a horrific game time coach and would need an outstanding collection of experienced talent to overcome his ineffectiveness. Obviously, we don't have that superb roster and will never see the playoffs with him at the helm. Woody has 82 more games as the Hawks Head Coach and I will delight with each and every passing game as we grow closer to seeing him called "former Hawks Head Coach, Mike Woodson".

[leftwich]

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Frankly, hinging this all to MW's star is not an attractive notion to me.

Moreover, this team might be "as good as it gets" for us as each of the next 4 years we have to resign 2, then 1, then 1, then 2 top pick prospects that will command a higher than usual salary if only because of their former draft positions and the word "potential" that comes with it. I can't see us coming out with any more than 3 of these players TOPS and while I like JS and even Horford to some extent, they play much the same position and neither are superstar quality players IMHO.

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The Hawks were the youngest team in the league last season. We shouldn't have to bring in big name free agents to significantly improve, especially with two more lottery picks. I'd give us a 35-40% chance at the playoffs, but I honestly don't think that's too bad considering all the EC teams that have sacrificed their future (Charlotte, Orlando, Boston) to be a playoff team but not a title contender.

[beav]

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Meanwhile, I also believe we are handicapped by BK's notoriously awful coaching selection. We certainly do not possess a coaching advantage (no matter how we retain our coaches) over our competition.

I won't even begin to discuss our ownership situation.

W

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Good points. While I personally don't think that it makes a ton of sense to worry to terribly about what the competition is doing (it's a long season...injuries happen, iverson gets suspended etc etc etc)... it is indeed more important to worry about what you can control...

Which to me is by far the biggest impediment that the Hawks have. Until the ownership situation is cleared up (god only knows when that will be), how can you attract a top-notch coach and/or GM?

Still regardless of that if this team had jettisoned knight and woodson same day (say about two minutes after the draft) they'd be looking pretty damn good. They might have been able to bring in a very able and tested bench coach (carlesimo, carlisle etc) regardless of the ownership situation.

As far as the GM? Yes there are probably 3-4 worse GMs in the league...big freaking deal. If you can't get someone that is at least average the hawks will remain lottery bound for 5 more years.

[coachx]

Good Question !

While many teams have bettered themselves:

1. Knicks

2. Celtics

3. Bobcats

4. Magic ??

others are regressing or keeping status quo:

1. Pacers

2. Pistons

3. Heat

4. Nets

Other younger teams will get better through development like us:

Raptors

Bulls

Bucks

Our betterment as a team will all come from player development of Marvin, Sheldon, and Smith and hopefully production of Horford being > ZaZa and Law's production being > and more consistent then Speedy, Lue, AJ.

I can easily see 8 teams in the East being better then us unless some of younger players take HUGE steps in their development.

1. Heat

2. Bulls

3. Cavs

4. Raptors

6. Nets

7. Celtics (move up more with Garnett)

8. Magic

9. Pistons

10. Knicks

11. Bobcats

12. Hawks

13. 76ers

14. Bucks

15. Pacers (depends on what happens with J. O'Niel)

Of course we COULD be better then 12th in the east but not without our young guys making huge strides.... no more baby steps.

If we luck out and goto the playoffs it will be quite a dog fight (no pun intended) in the East.

In my opinion the season hinges on much better play in the paint then what we had last year. That means major strides from Smith, Sheldon, and Horford.

[AnakinJoe]

Didn't Portland trade Telfair for Roy? And didn't they acquire/buy several draft picks over the past 2 seasons? And didn't they just pay $30M to rid themselves of Steve Francis? Not sure how you can reference Portland's rebuilding efforts without acknowledging the commitment of the owner to support their GM.

Again, I agree that the Hawks are not a playoff team. But as long as we are handcuffed to fire this coaching staff (or GM) by the ownership divorce, I can't put all the blame at BK's feet. I think it is foolish to believe that Woody would have extracted the same performance from Deron Williams as Jerry Sloan. We simply have no evidence that this coaching staff can optimize a players talents within the first few years of his NBA experience. None what so ever.

[Peoriabird]

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Again, I agree that the Hawks are not a playoff team. But as long as we are handcuffed to fire this coaching staff (or GM) by the ownership divorce, I can't put all the blame at BK's feet. I think it is foolish to believe that Woody would have extracted the same performance from Deron Williams as Jerry Sloan. We simply have no evidence that this coaching staff can optimize a players talents within the first few years of his NBA experience. None what so ever.

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Well I don't care what you guys think, the Hawks are a playoff team this year. And all you now Boston nut huggers, they will be an 8th seed at best!

[AHF]

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Again, I agree that the Hawks are not a playoff team. But as long as we are handcuffed to fire this coaching staff (or GM) by the ownership divorce, I can't put all the blame at BK's feet. I think it is foolish to believe that Woody would have extracted the same performance from Deron Williams as Jerry Sloan. We simply have no evidence that this coaching staff can optimize a players talents within the first few years of his NBA experience. None what so ever.

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Well I don't care what you guys think, the Hawks are a playoff team this year. And all you now Boston nut huggers, they will be an 8th seed at best!

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I am hardly a Boston nut hugger (although I am interested to see if Bill Simmons needs to be talked down from the ceiling after hearing about this trade), but I definitely think this elevates Boston to a clear frontrunner in the East. Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett and Gomes/Perkins should be good enough to finish as one of the top teams in the East.

I haven't given up on the Hawks taking a big step forward this season, though. I don't see any reason to assume, for example, that we aren't capable of making a leap ala Toronto's improvement last season.

[Guest Walter]

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However, I think we'll be better than last year and I'm giving us about a 50% chance to make the playoffs.

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...indicates a push IMO. I think the odds are lower but frankly at this point in the rebuild after we LUCKED UP and kept a 3rd overall (and 11th overall) pick(s) to tack onto a massive amount of draft capital, 50% should be a complete, utter slap in the face. Moreover, with our NOT having a pick next year and the likelihood of losing some prospects next year/several in the next few years due to their rookie contracts expiring we are looking at a talent drain in coming years. THAT means that if we can't solidly be a playoff team projecting to be a contender NOW, we d@mn sure won't be in the coming years without a Portland-like GM coming in to clean up the mess (i.e. draft picks like Telfair).

Regardling Toronto, I don't think they are a good example for us but whatever. The Bulls in 04-5 simply had used their draft capital better, weren't capped out like us, and had more draft capital coming...they also have considerably better coaching, a better designed team, and could anticipate retaining their players.

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There is no way to tell how well we'll stack up against other teams in the east until we see this team play, and I personally feel much better about this team than I did last year.

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I disagree. I think there is. It's not a perfect science but NY's, Boston's, and Charlotte's improvements are significant, better than ours in terms of the next 2 years.

W

[sturt]

...but compliments to W after all on the legitimate question and relatively level-headed explanation of his perspective (... albeit all motivated by an itchy trigger finger on all-things-doomsday ).

Nevertheless, let's see what the final transaction looks like... there's questions about whether both Rondo and Jefferson, one, or neither are going to be included, and it seems a bit more prudent to have some patience b4 we elevate Ainge to the patron saint of all GMs.

[MemphisX]

I am still lurking and theis Walter cat is usually over the top IMO. However, I think he is right when he says that 50%(which is generous IMO) is a slap in the face. The Hawks miss the playoffs again this season, have to fire the coach and GM (good luck getting quality replacements unless ownership mess is solved), and are heavily invested in players that have brought nothing but lottery balls and no draft pick next season to improve and unless ownership is settled you will not be able to use the MLE.

Yikes...Gasol is going to look real good come Jan/Feb.

[capstone21]

That will be the key. The team looks good on paper but it doesn't mean it will work on the game. You have three big time scorers that need the ball. Can they make it work?

I think the best player that the Celtics should go after is Brevin Knight. He is excatly the player that could help glue this team together and get all three of these guys their points.

If it does work then I think they are in the top teir teams in teh East. For now anyway.

[Guest Walter]

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and it seems a bit more prudent to have some patience b4 we elevate Ainge to the patron saint of all GMs.

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BK couldn't even buy his way into GM heaven with his god awful GMing record. Ainge is already a saint of a GM next to BK.

But "patience" everyone as Sturt says. It's now about to enter the 5th year and the playoffs don't look that much closer due to:

1) equally improving rebuilding teams and the EC in general,

2) our time for prospecting is up,

3) and over the next few years, without a 1st rd pick next year and the likelihood of losing some of our young talent, our talent isn't going to be increasing and the holes are more likely to widen.

But patience. If we can't make the playoffs when we've got the most talent we can expect to have, who knows, maybe miracle of all miracles we'll go from late lottery to contender without a 1st rd pick next year and with the likelihood we can't keep the majority of our prospects in coming years starting next year. All it takes is "patience" "yeah, yeah". Just a little patience. The future looks bright even if a host of others' looks brighter and our relative lumens in the form of young, cheap talent appears very short-lived.

W

[DrReality]

Our talent has not played up to its potential. Gotta lay some of that on Woody. If we play to our potential I think we can be right there . . . . probably a little behind the other teams mentioned, but right there.

[Gray Mule]

Walter: Ownership is a big mess. I agree.

Coach, and his staff, not the greatest. I agree.

Our G.M. Concervive, to say the least. I agree.

What I pin my hopes on - Where I believe improvement must

come for our Hawks next season:

Speedy had surgery on knee. He believes it will be fine.

I believe he wants to prove to us that he's still a good

P.G.

Law must fulfill his potential. I believe he will be

a solid P.G. for a long time. If Speedy is O.K. then

we are good at our weak point last season.

Horford will be solid. Two solid picks. Notice I didn't

say spectacular for either pick, just, good, solid men.

A healthy roster. No more missing weeks and weeks due

to injury.

Give us all this, add our experience and growth from

last season, and with good chemestry, we're in the

playoffs!!

[sturt]

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and it seems a bit more prudent to have some patience b4 we elevate Ainge to the patron saint of all GMs.

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BK couldn't even buy his way into GM heaven with his god awful GMing record. Ainge is already a saint of a GM next to BK.

But "patience" everyone as Sturt says. It's now about to enter the 5th year and the playoffs don't look that much closer due to:

1) equally improving rebuilding teams and the EC in general,

2) our time for prospecting is up,

3) and over the next few years, without a 1st rd pick next year and the likelihood of losing some of our young talent, our talent isn't going to be increasing and the holes are more likely to widen.

But patience. If we can't make the playoffs when we've got the most talent we can expect to have, who knows, maybe miracle of all miracles we'll go from late lottery to contender without a 1st rd pick next year and with the likelihood we can't keep the majority of our prospects in coming years starting next year. All it takes is "patience" "yeah, yeah". Just a little patience. The future looks bright even if a host of others' looks brighter and our relative lumens in the form of young, cheap talent appears very short-lived.

W

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Totally out of context, W. Completely. Said nothing about us, only about Celtics deal. C'mon... have a little sense.

[chillzatl]

if you think we've improved, as I do, then the answer would be no, I don't think we've been outpaced.

If you think that we haven't improved, as you do (shocker), then yes, we've been outpaced.

Polls are much easer and not nearly as long winded..