At some point, choices must be made

[scottt]

We cannot afford to sign everyone to a long term extension. Some choices will inevitably have to be made.

Question: What do we do? The way JS is playing, he will get 5 yrs/60 million. JJ is still a big cap hit. MW will command a nice extension (which he will deserve -- he is becomming a MAN). Al is probably a max player at some point. JC is worth a MLE. If Acie pans out then there is another 6 or 7 million at least when he comes up for extension. If we sign everyone then our cap is probably approaching 75 or 80 million.

Just wondering what everyone thought.

[DrReality]

If we are winning and in the playoffs, these contracts will have a much easier way of working themselves out. The Hawks have a core group of guys that can take them into the futute if they can keep them together. And the fact that it took them so long to put it together, they'd better be willin to pay the price.

[mrhonline]

I've thought for a while that the economically sensible thing to do is trade Childress to a WC team for a mid-to-late first rounder + backup wing signed to a cheap contract for a few more years. For example, Childress to New Orleans for Rasual Butler + 2008 1st.

Then, in the offseason, you re-sign Smith and add a steady, veteran PG to share time with Acie Law. Said PG would need to do three things - make the extra pass, hit the open 3, and defend.

Personally, I like the idea of giving Claxton's insurance/retirement $ (~$8.8M over the next two years) to Chris Duhon. He's an UFA, and it looks like the Bulls won't have the $ to bring him back along with Gordon & Deng.

Duhon/Law/?

JJ/West/?

Marvin/Butler

Smith/Shelden/?

Horford/Zaza/Jones

You have a late 1st and a 2nd rounder to fill the rest of the holes.

[jezmund]

I think about these issues pretty regularly as a matter of fact. That's why sometimes I am a fan of trading a larger quantity of good pieces for a real good piece. I have a hard time believeing that we can resign all 3 of Marvin and both Joshes. It would be great if we lucked out and Speedy retired. The money between that and the expirings of Lue, AJ and Wright would almost be enough to resign both Joshes. Zaza's deal will be expiring when we are up to pay Marvin. That $4M or so plus the caphold that Marvin will already represent will probably be 'close' to what Marvin will command. Isn't he already making like $5M or so? I assume Marvin will command about what Josh Smith does. (In the 5 year 60M range) By the time Marvin and moreso Horford/Law are up for extensions the cap will probably be in the $60's I'd imagine. I'd love to see us do a move involving either Zaza or Shelden for a future pick and expiring deals.

[TheTruth]

I like the nucleus we have of Acie Law, JJ, Josh Smith, Marvin, and Horford. I like Childress, but we can't resign everyone--especially since so many are expecting to be getting PAID. He is the odd man out in my opinion. We can find just about anyone who can come off the bench and give us quality minutes at the Forward spot. That is very easy to do. We need to get another PG; remember, AJ is playing for a contract--his is up at the end of the season and Speedy is done for the season. We could use a bona fide shooter who can come off the bench to help spread the floor (and that could hopefully shoot 3s well). Unfortunately, Salim may not be able to be that guy. A big man who can play Defense and rebound would be nice to spell Horford as well.

So yeah, I love Childress, but it is much easier to find a guy who can do what he does. The money can be better spent elsewhere.

[Gray Mule]

Hawks have big $$$$ tied up in the, to date, completely

usless Speedy Claxton.

He brings us -0- for the money.

He costs us a lot of cap space we could really use.

Right now, because of this contract, we're screwed.

[TnDawg]

I believe that Chillz will end up being the odd man out between him, Marvin, and Smooth. While I like him, he gets injured alot and for what he brings I believe it can be easier replaced. My question is if you believe that Acie is our PG of the future, why sign Duhon when we already have a veteran backup in AJ. I know his contract is up at the end of this season and someone posted he is playing for a contract, but so is any other veteran FA we may bring in. AJ has been steady everywhere he's been, but has been labeled as a backup. When given the opportunity he has been steady for just about every team he has been on.We should be able to keep him for areound the MLE. With the amount of expirings and if we get lucky enough that Claxton retire, doubtful, there shouldn't be any problem keeping Marvin, JJ, Smith, along with Horford and Acie around for the future. As the team wins, we owners should be willing to spend as long as the battle between them doesn't interfere.

[TnDawg]

typo.........obvious I'm not an owner....but you all are smart enough to get the point.

[mrhonline]

I will be shocked if AJ returns to Atlanta next season. And that's okay because he doesn't really fit the long-term plans.

As far as Law vs. Duhon, I think the Hawks need a veteran presence at the 1, something they were hoping to have when they signed Claxton. You can't assume Law will ever be the starter. He's certainly not sustained that level of play to date. Regardless, you could play Duhon/Law together in short spurts, so there should be enough minutes for both players to get 25+ minutes.

[TroyMcClure]

If Billy wanted Duhon, as I did, then he would have drafted him when he had the chance.

[DJ_Money]

Duhon's career FG% is worse than Speedy's...no thanks.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Quote:

---

We cannot afford to sign everyone to a long term extension. Some choices will inevitably have to be made.

Question: What do we do? The way JS is playing, he will get 5 yrs/60 million. JJ is still a big cap hit. MW will command a nice extension (which he will deserve -- he is becomming a MAN). Al is probably a max player at some point. JC is worth a MLE. If Acie pans out then there is another 6 or 7 million at least when he comes up for extension. If we sign everyone then our cap is probably approaching 75 or 80 million.

Just wondering what everyone thought.

---

There are quite a few things you're not thinking about.

1) I think 75% - 80% of te NBA are already over the salary cap right now. Being over the cap is a fact of life, especially for the good teams in the NBA. Matter of fact, if you're NOT over the cap, you're probably not a goodd team, or you're in the middle of a rebuilding process.

2) And speaking of that, most playoff teams, with the exception of a few disasters like the Knicks, are over the cap. And the reason why they're over the cap, is because you have to pay to keep your developing young guys. And if you go the trade route, you have to pay in order to trade for a very good player to increase your talent.

3) The Hawks could sign EVERY ONE OF THESE GUYS, if they wanted to. They can match any offer, and keep them a Hawk for years, if they wanted. They own the Bird Rights to every single of our core guys. It all depends on what the owners want to pay to put a winning product on the floor, and if the people in the Atlanta area will routinely sell out Philips every night, to watch that winning product. If we're a 50+ win team that perennially makes noise in the playoffs, then we'd hope that this ownership group would keep this team together.

4) The NBA salary cap rises every year, by about 2 - 3 million a year. In a few years, the NBA salary cap could easily be around 65 million, with the luxury tax being somewhere in the mid to high-70 million range

5) And that leads me to this point: Being over the cap isn't necessarily a thing that a team is worried about. What they worry about, is being in luxury tax land. Most of your big market teams that rake in a lot of money, don't even worry about the luxury tax, as long as they put a perennial playoff and championship contending team out on the floor. That's why Boston didn't even blink to bring in 2 MAX money guys like KG and Allen to add with Pierce.

6) If you notice, the teams that really worry about going over the cap, are good teams that are rapidly in decline, but can't make a move in free agency to get a good player. ( i.e. - the Knicks, the Heat, the Sixers, the Hawks 4 years ago, etc. ) Or cheap owners that don't want to spend money to bring in a winner in the first place. ( i.e. - the Suns ), the Clippers ( back in the day ), the Hawks ( because of the ownership issue ), etc.

7) BK has the salary structure spaced out so that salary issues can easily be dealt with.

- Smoove and Chill in summer of 2008. And yes, we can easily re-sign both guys, contrary to popular belief.

- Marvin in summer of 2009 ( or if they wanted to let him be a RFA and let the market set his worth like they did with Smoove and Chill, then re-sign him ), summer of 2010

- Shelden in summer of 2009 ( who may very well be let go if he doesn't progress as a player. The Hawks may not pick up the team option after next season )

- JJ in summer of 2010 as an unrestricted FA ( who may command real big money by then if he continues to improve. But his situaton is definitely going to depend on how good of a team we are, and if guys like Marvin, Smoove, or Horford haven't overtaken him as our best player. The decison on him might be made during the 2009-10 season. Believe it or not, JJ could be the one that isn't with the Hawks 3 years from now, not the young guys. )

- Horford and Law in summer of 2010, or they can let them become RFAs in summer of 2011.

8) Signing our core guys means that guys 8 - 15 on the Hawks, will be made up of cheap vets or cheap young talent. And the better we are, the lower our future draft picks will cost us. Or, we can always sell off our picks like Dallas and Phoenix does.

9) Because a lot of teams are over the cap, that means that teams aren't necessarily going to throw big money to get our guys, unless they are absolutey convinced that those guys can be impact players on their squad. Chill won't get over the MLE and Smoove probably won't get a deal over the 5yr - 60mil that you stated he may get, because of this. I think it's been said on this board that Philly is the only team that could make a major play at Smoove this summer. Everybody else is either cap strapped, or have to sign their own young guys. Even Philly has to make a decision on Iggy.

10) The way it looks now, we are going to have 10+ million fall off the books this summer, assuming that AJ isn't re-signed for a Lue-like deal. Hopefully Speedy decides to retire, to help us out even more. And with AJ, we might be the only team wanting him by next summer. So the core could stay the same, but the role players will constantly change.

OK, that may be more than a few things you overlooked.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On #6, I lumped in Phoenix with a team like the Clippers. I didn't quite mean to do that.

The Clips were just cheap and didn't want to spend a lot of money.

The Suns just don't want to have to go into luxury tax land, in order to win a title. That's why they'd even consider trading a guy like an Amare or a Marion, even though the are so important to the team.

They're at championship level, but aren't willing to spend whatever it takes to bring home a title. The fact that they've sold the draft picks that we've given them so far, just to keep out of luxury tax land, shows you how they operate. Rondo on the Suns as a backup to Nash, would make them flat out scary.

With Diaw, I guess they thought he was good enough to either replace Amare if he couldn't come back to form, or replace Marion after this year, if the Suns decided not to extend him. That's the only reason Diaw got his money. LOL . . now they would KILL to trade him.

[Final_quest]

Assume for a moment we can resign everyone. Will this team be able to compete for a championship, or will we be back to playing in the first round or two of the playoffs each year?

I also wonder if we are even able to spend over the cap due to legal restrictions with the ownership dispute. It would suck to lose Childress because he would barely take us over the cap.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

Duhon's career FG% is worse than Speedy's...no thanks.

---

Welcome to the 2000's. Look at their effective FG%.

[AtLaS]

Quote:

---

On #6, I lumped in Phoenix with a team like the Clippers. I didn't quite mean to do that.

The Clips were just cheap and didn't want to spend a lot of money.

The Suns just don't want to have to go into luxury tax land, in order to win a title. That's why they'd even consider trading a guy like an Amare or a Marion, even though the are so important to the team.

They're at championship level, but aren't willing to spend whatever it takes to bring home a title. The fact that they've sold the draft picks that we've given them so far, just to keep out of luxury tax land, shows you how they operate. Rondo on the Suns as a backup to Nash, would make them flat out scary.

With Diaw, I guess they thought he was good enough to either replace Amare if he couldn't come back to form, or replace Marion after this year, if the Suns decided not to extend him. That's the only reason Diaw got his money. LOL . . now they would KILL to trade him.

---

The Suns are just dumb for not giving up Amare for KG IMO. I mean, Nash and Marion are 30+ anyway (Marion is almost 30), and KG is 31 so why not go for it now? Nash and Marion only have a 3-5 year window anyway as does KG, I just don't understand why they didn't make the move.

Once Nash and Marion begin to decline, the Suns will be left with a star big man in Amare, and overpaid Diaw and nothing else. Amare will be the KG in Minnesota, except I don't expect Amare to be as loyal as KG was.

[HAWKS1986]

Chillz.

Shelden. (via trade)

Speedy.

No extensions for Chillz. He needed to stay healthy and be more of consistent contributor in 2007 and has struggled to do either. He was a Top 10 pick and has under-performed.