A (Statistical) Truth About Mike Bibby

[Admin]

As we have looked closer at the potential of a Mike Bibby resigning, we have become more sure that Bibby services need to be retained. Not only was Bibby extremely helpful in bringing it all together for the Hawks the past two seasons, but he fits an increasingly hard to find talent set in the market right now, a true facilitator who can shoot. Reports on Monday out of Portland were that the Blazers may be down on Andre Miller due to his lack of killer J, the skill of which Mr. Bibby excels.

Also, though we not the most statistical here at the HHB, we have brought in a team of summer interns that have helped us crunch the numbers and revealed a very interesting statistic about Mike Bibby's season last year--consider:

We ran certain numbers from Bibby's 2008-2009 season (Stats Courtesy of Basketball Reference-go sponsor a page today!), PER, Minutes Played, Assist Rate, and Effective FG percentage. We also filtered by Position, Age, and Years in the League. What we found is that only (12) times since the 1989-90 season a player has done what Mike Bibby did in those (4) categories.

... read the article here

[tbhawksfan]

Nice articles and site. Seems like they seem to guess right quite often.

Interesting on that PG chart, they were all over 30 when they acheived that level of play.

[exodus]

As we have looked closer at the potential of a Mike Bibby resigning, we have become more sure that Bibby services need to be retained. Not only was Bibby extremely helpful in bringing it all together for the Hawks the past two seasons, but he fits an increasingly hard to find talent set in the market right now, a true facilitator who can shoot. Reports on Monday out of Portland were that the Blazers may be down on Andre Miller due to his lack of killer J, the skill of which Mr. Bibby excels.

Also, though we not the most statistical here at the HHB, we have brought in a team of summer interns that have helped us crunch the numbers and revealed a very interesting statistic about Mike Bibby's season last year--consider:

We ran certain numbers from Bibby's 2008-2009 season (Stats Courtesy of Basketball Reference-go sponsor a page today!), PER, Minutes Played, Assist Rate, and Effective FG percentage. We also filtered by Position, Age, and Years in the League. What we found is that only (12) times since the 1989-90 season a player has done what Mike Bibby did in those (4) categories.

... read the article here

The problem is that none of those 4 catagories measure defense. Don't get me wrong i think 3 years $18 million is fine for Bibby but he is a major defensive liability.

[hawkman]

The problem is that none of those 4 catagories measure defense. Don't get me wrong i think 3 years $18 million is fine for Bibby but he is a major defensive liability.

So is Steve Nash and he won MVP.

[y2kenta]

So is Steve Nash and he won MVP.

Exactly.

[AHF]

Interesting on that PG chart, they were all over 30 when they acheived that level of play.

One of the criteria for appearing on the chart was being over the age of 30!

Jay is a great source for Hawks info. His stuff is golden.

[exodus]

So is Steve Nash and he won MVP.

Nash has never been as bad defensively as Bibby. Nash is basically an average defender and Bibby flat out sucks. Nash is bigger with quicker feet than Bibby.

Last season the Hawks gave up 6.1 more ppg when Bibby was playing which was almost identical to the season before. Nash has never had a season like that with the Suns. They generally give up the same number of points regardless of whether Nash is on the floor or not.

[DrReality]

Don't think you can put a value on Bibby's leadership and keeping the team together. If we can sign the others, or most of them, we start off where we left off last year. And that's significant.

He's with some pretty impressive company in this list.

[Admin]

Nash has never been as bad defensively as Bibby. Nash is basically an average defender and Bibby flat out sucks. Nash is bigger with quicker feet than Bibby.

Last season the Hawks gave up 6.1 more ppg when Bibby was playing which was almost identical to the season before. Nash has never had a season like that with the Suns. They generally give up the same number of points regardless of whether Nash is on the floor or not.

Not really Nash is 1" taller but almost 20 lbs lighter. I will agree that Nash is the better defender but it's not an "average to flat out sucks" difference. Using that description Bibby would have to be the worst defensive PG in the game and there's no way I'd put him that low on the list and it's also very difficult to tell how bad someone actually is with the new rules.

[mrhonline]

So, I sorted for older guards (age 30+ PGs) with seasons since 2000 with at least .500 eFG% and 23+ AST% (1000MP, 30MP/game minimum):

Darrell Armstrong

Mike Bibby

Chauncey Billups (2x)

Sam Cassell

Mike James

Jason Kidd

Steve Nash (5x)

John Stockton

Jason Williams (2x)

Of that group, only Jason Williams and Jason Kidd had fewer FTA/MP.

Bibby had the lowest AST% of the group.

He had the lowest TOV% and is in the middle of the pack as far as TRB%.

All in all, I'd say Jason Williams is his closest statistical relative. Bibby is obviously a better fit for the Hawks.

Edited July 7, 2009 by mrhonline

[exodus]

Not really Nash is 1" taller but almost 20 lbs lighter. I will agree that Nash is the better defender but it's not an "average to flat out sucks" difference. Using that description Bibby would have to be the worst defensive PG in the game and there's no way I'd put him that low on the list and it's also very difficult to tell how bad someone actually is with the new rules.

it isn't hard to tell how bad Bibby is at defense since the Hawks are putting JJ on high scoring pgs because Bibby can't stay in front of them.

Feel free to share the starting pgs that you think are worse defensively than Bibby.

[Admin]

it isn't hard to tell how bad Bibby is at defense since the Hawks are putting JJ on high scoring pgs because Bibby can't stay in front of them.

Feel free to share the starting pgs that you think are worse defensively than Bibby.

There's not much point in listing who might be worse since it's so difficult to determine their defensive ability with the new rules and with the styles of defense teams play, like us with the switching defense. I certainly don't believe that Bibby is the worst starting PG in the league though.

[exodus]

There's not much point in listing who might be worse since it's so difficult to determine their defensive ability with the new rules and with the styles of defense teams play, like us with the switching defense. I certainly don't believe that Bibby is the worst starting PG in the league though.

That begs the question as to who is.

[Traceman]

The problem is that none of those 4 catagories measure defense. Don't get me wrong i think 3 years $18 million is fine for Bibby but he is a major defensive liability.

Bibby is definitely a defensive liability but Nash, Stockton and even Magic were defensive liabilities to varying degrees as well. Now I'm certainly not saying that Bibby is on par as a player with any of those guys as all 3 are HOFers and Bibby is not but in this particular statistical comparison, Bibby stacks up pretty well.

[buckeye242424]

Bibby is definitely a defensive liability but Nash, Stockton and even Magic were defensive liabilities to varying degrees as well. Now I'm certainly not saying that Bibby is on par as a player with any of those guys as all 3 are HOFers and Bibby is not but in this particular statistical comparison, Bibby stacks up pretty well.

I don't think you could ever call the all-time NBA steals leader a "liability".

[Traceman]

I don't think you could ever call the all-time NBA steals leader a "liability".

He got so many steals because he was smart and good at getting in the passing lanes (he was pretty good at stripping big guys from the blindside too) but his straight up man to man D was below average.

[jaywalker72]

On the RealGM board, I was called out for manipulation of numbers---but I understand where that's coming from.

Really wasn't trying to be disingenuous, simply trying to figure out the following:

1. Was there anything unique about the season Bibby had last year?

2. Is it easily repeatable?

3. Was this an outlier season for Bibby?

PER, Assist Rate, Minutes Played and Effective Field Goal percentage were chosen because we felt it best captured what the point guard position on the Hawks was looking for: A facilitator who can shoot, play a lot of minutes (though we only used 30MPG * 82 as the measure here, Bibby played over 36 MPG last season--Billips was the only player who wouldn't have made the cut @ 36 MPG), and overall offensive effectiveness.

We chose the age (30) and years in the league (11) to gauge how common it is to do this later in one's career, effecting repeatability. This was Bibby's age and experience last season.

Whether or not you felt it did, it gave me a sense, especially after I backed it out to .500 eFG and included all ages and years, that Bibby could do it again, that the season was one of some uniqueness, and that paying him what I thought to be 3 years and 20 million, would be a good thing as long as the Hawks insist on playing offense the way that they do.

He's a good fit, the stats seem to prove that out, and could be worth what he will be compensated with.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/psl...mp;order_by=per

Edited July 7, 2009 by jaywalker72

[Atlantaholic]

People forget that, for some stretches last year, Bibby really carried our team... His last half of the season was a let down but he was stellar the first few months... If he can give us a few months of A+ basketball, with our depth, I'll take it.

[hawkman]

On the RealGM board, I was called out for manipulation of numbers---but I understand where that's coming from.

Really wasn't trying to be disingenuous, simply trying to figure out the following:

1. Was there anything unique about the season Bibby had last year?

2. Is it easily repeatable?

3. Was this an outlier season for Bibby?

PER, Assist Rate, Minutes Played and Effective Field Goal percentage were chosen because we felt it best captured what the point guard position on the Hawks was looking for: A facilitator who can shoot, play a lot of minutes (though we only used 30MPG * 82 as the measure here, Bibby played over 36 MPG last season--Billips was the only player who wouldn't have made the cut @ 36 MPG), and overall offensive effectiveness.

We chose the age (30) and years in the league (11) to gauge how common it is to do this later in one's career, effecting repeatability. This was Bibby's age and experience last season.

Whether or not you felt it did, it gave me a sense, especially after I backed it out to .500 eFG and included all ages and years, that Bibby could do it again, that the season was one of some uniqueness, and that paying him what I thought to be 3 years and 20 million, would be a good thing as long as the Hawks insist on playing offense the way that they do.

He's a good fit, the stats seem to prove that out, and could be worth what he will be compensated with.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/psl...mp;order_by=per

Don't take it personal Jay. Anybody who's watched this team for the past few seasons know the impact that Bibby has had on this team's play. Some fans just have a 'grass is greener on the other side' mentality when it comes to this team. Bibby was actually compared to Tyronn Lue for goodness sakes. It doesn't take a coach or scout to see the impact Bibby has had on this team, defensive issues or not. I'm sooooooo tired of hearing the same argument about his defense all the time as if that's all there is to playing the PG position. We got 15 and 5 out of the PG position for the first time in years and all some people can do is complain.

[mrhonline]

Don't take it personal Jay.

Absolutely do not take it personal. (I've been accused of the same several times myself).

But I do agree that the stats seem artificially inflated in terms of making Bibby look better. Why? Because you used Bibby's stats as the minimums. The players on the list were far better than Bibby in a number of areas, particularly AST%.

I sent B-R.com an email the other day asking them to consider changing from a "greater/lesser than" tool to a "within X %" tool. That way you can get a better idea of comparable players. I do that now, but it requires dumping everything into Excel...