Basketball Prospectus - Summer 2010 Free Agent Future Projections

[BossTweed]

I saw this article on Basketball Prospectus about the top free agents for 2010 and what their statistical projections say about expected production for the first 3 years of their contract.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=945

They have Joe Johnson at the bottom of the second tier of free agents. They project players stats based on similar players at similar ages to create projected WARP values for each player for the next 3 years. WARP is "Wins Above Replacement Player", based on performance and playing time, the wins a player has created as compared to a replacement-level player seeing the same minutes.

Player             Tm  Stat    Age  2011  2012  2013    Tot

-----------------------------------------------------------

Manu Ginobili     sas   UFA   32.7  11.6   9.5   5.7   26.7

Amare Stoudemire  phx   UFA   27.4   6.7   5.9   4.1   16.7

David Lee         nyk   UFA   27.0   6.3   6.2   4.1   16.6

Rudy Gay          mem   RFA   23.7   4.7   4.5   5.1   14.3

Dirk Nowitzki     dal   UFA   31.8   7.1   3.9   2.5   13.5

Paul Pierce       bos   UFA   32.5   4.3   3.9   3.5   11.7

Carlos Boozer     uta   UFA   28.4   6.8   3.1   1.0   10.9

Joe Johnson       atl   UFA   28.8   3.6   2.5   0.9    7.1

[/code]


They only mention two of Joe's comparable players, Steve Smith and Jalen Rose, and those were the best two comparable players.


Another similar linked from the Basketball Prospectus one focuses on Joe specifically (it's from a Bulls blog) and compares him to Michael Finley a lot.


http://www.blogabull.com/2010/2/8/1300945/what-can-we-expect-from-joe-johnson


This is probably going to be of more interest at the end of the season, but I will probably lose track of these articles if I don't post them now.

[Colin]

I can't, for the life of me, understand how Ginobili is so high up. he is having the worst shooting year of his career, and is the oldest on the list...

[niremetal]

I can't, for the life of me, understand how Ginobili is so high up. he is having the worst shooting year of his career, and is the oldest on the list...

First, I think the page that's the topic of this post was posted a week or so ago.

Second, yeah. Any post that projects Manu as being more productive during the next 3 years than Lee, Gay, Boozer, Amare, and JJ...well, I love Manu, but that should be a red flag.

Edited March 1, 2010 by niremetal

[BossTweed]

First, I think the page that's the topic of this post was posted a week or so ago.

Second, yeah. Any post that projects Manu as being the more productive during the next 3 years than Lee, Gay, Boozer, Amare, and JJ...well, I love Manu, but that should be a red flag.

Ah, sorry, I didn't notice the previous post. It was a fan-site import from Hoopinion.

I sent an email to them asking who Manu is considered similar to (I'm guessing somehow he is similar to Michael Jordan or something) so maybe we can have some more context.

The Bulls blog post that was linked at the end of my post is pretty interesting too though, if you have time to check it out, since it focuses only on SG's.

[niremetal]

Ah, sorry, I didn't notice the previous post. It was a fan-site import from Hoopinion.

I sent an email to them asking who Manu is considered similar to (I'm guessing somehow he is similar to Michael Jordan or something) so maybe we can have some more context.

The Bulls blog post that was linked at the end of my post is pretty interesting too though, if you have time to check it out, since it focuses only on SG's.

Hate-to-hate, but there was a non-import thread too, and it also discussed the Blog-a-Bull bit ;)

http://www.hawksquawk.net/community/index.php/topic/344139-a-troubling-article-about-joes-future/

[BossTweed]

Hate-to-hate, but there was a non-import thread too, and it also discussed the Blog-a-Bull bit ;)

http://www.hawksquawk.net/community/index.php/topic/344139-a-troubling-article-about-joes-future/

Haha, thanks, I will check it out. That's what I get for going on a cruise for 5 days with no internet.

[Joker]

First, I think the page that's the topic of this post was posted a week or so ago.

Second, yeah. Any post that projects Manu as being more productive during the next 3 years than Lee, Gay, Boozer, Amare, and JJ...well, I love Manu, but that should be a red flag.

+1

[MaceCase]

Haha, thanks, I will check it out. That's what I get for going on a cruise for 5 days with no internet.

Rub it in why don't ya.

[mrhonline]

The article mentions that the projection system did NOT take durability into consideration, so that's why Ginobili is so high. If he's healthy, he's a better player than Joe.

As far as Joe, the experiences of similar players simply doesn't bode well for whomever JJ signs with...

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The article mentions that the projection system did NOT take durability into consideration, so that's why Ginobili is so high. If he's healthy, he's a better player than Joe.

As far as Joe, the experiences of similar players simply doesn't bode well for whomever JJ signs with...

MrH, that just goes to show how disrespected JJ is as a player.

Sometimes, all of those stats don't differentiate between the roles of players, and how a star player can influence how effective that player is. I haven't watched a lot of Knick games, other than when we played them and when Memphis played them. But I haven't seen anybody try to gameplan to stop David Lee from scoring. The Knicks are so bad, that you have to wonder if Lee ever sees a double team.

That's why when something is saying that he's going to be a better player in 2 years than Dirk, you have to question that big time. Dirk gets the kitchen sink thrown at him every night, and he still produces. Lee doesn't see that. So while Lee may have better numbers, they're not the same player when it comes to being a lead guy.

Jamal Crawford is a perfect example of this. As a main guy, he's as inefficient of a scorer that it is out there. As a complimentary guy, he's lethal, because the opposing team can't gameplan to stop just Crawford. They have to gameplan for JJ first, then possibly Josh Smith next . . then Crawford.

The same goes for Ginoboli. You have to stop or slow down Duncan and Parker first, before you address Ginoboli. Like Crawford, Ginoboli gets to be the "leader" of the Spurs 2nd team. Ginoboli never faces double teams because people are so worried about Parker's penetration and Duncan's post up and shot making ability.

The BIG DIFFERENCE between Manu and JJ, is JJ's ability to take AND MAKE contested jumpshots. The ability of a guy to create his own offense, is one of the biggest factors in whether that guy can be a star player, and lead a team offensively.

Manu's outside game is dependent off of people setting him up for open jumpers, and him slashing to the lane. His shooting percentage has plummeted this year, and his midrange shooting is JOSH SMITH LIKE this season. He's still a slasher, but he's obviously a lot less effective going to the hole. And it's his slashing that makes him a good player, and also an injury prone player.

Basically, Manu's total worth as a player is because he's become more of a playmaker this season. But check out his hotspot data. You may be shocked at what you see from him this year as a player.

http://www.nba.com/hotspots/

If JJ played with Tim Duncan, and could play inside-outside ball with him, there's no telling what JJ would shoot from the outside, especially from 3 point range in which he could become a catch and shoot guy. There's also no telling how much JJ's assists numbers would go up, if he could play with a pretty good midrange shooter like Duncan.

Fact is . . there is no way in hell Ginoboli could be the main guy on an NBA team right now. Maybe 4 years ago he could, but not now. And he's definitely not a better projected player than either JJ or Rudy Gay 2 - 3 years in the future. If Rudy ever develops his midrange jumper, that guy is going to explode into a lethal offensive player.

Edited March 2, 2010 by northcyde

[TheNorthCydeRises]

People have to remember that JJ has never played with a dominant low post scorer . . or a pass first PG in Atlanta. He's a SG that has basically had to create his own offense for 5 years now. But in Phoenix, that dude was one of the best shooters in the league, when he played with a pass first PG and a dominant big man. Just give him one of those elements today, and there's no telling the numbers the guy could put up.

[mrhonline]

North,

I firmly believe that Manu could have been a first option in the mold of JJ during his peak. Like Joe, he plays well within a number of roles.

The problem this season is that he's not been healthy. Honestly, he hasn't been healthy in a long while, and I don't expect him to be healthy in the future. It will be a high-risk, high-reward move for whomever signs him.

If he's healthy, he's a sensational player, though.

[BossTweed]

North,

I firmly believe that Manu could have been a first option in the mold of JJ during his peak. Like Joe, he plays well within a number of roles.

The problem this season is that he's not been healthy. Honestly, he hasn't been healthy in a long while, and I don't expect him to be healthy in the future. It will be a high-risk, high-reward move for whomever signs him.

If he's healthy, he's a sensational player, though.

Yeah, I got a response back about who the comparables were for the two players. Manu when healthy is being compared to some great players. There just aren't that many guards that have played at as high a level as Manu has at his age, so he gets compared to some really good ones.

Johnson:

Jamal Mashburn

Steve Smith

Purvis Short

Michael Finley

Jalen Rose

Jerry Stackhouse

Marques Johnson

Hedo Turkoglu

Mark Aguirre

Glenn Robinson

Ginobili:

Clyde Drexler

Scottie Pippen

Darrell Armstrong

Jason Kidd

Gary Payton

Jeff Hornacek

Sam Cassell

Chris Mullin

Michael Jordan

Mookie Blaylock

Edited March 2, 2010 by BossTweed

[exodus]

Johnson:

Jamal Mashburn

Steve Smith

Purvis Short

Michael Finley

Jalen Rose

Jerry Stackhouse

Marques Johnson

Hedo Turkoglu

Mark Aguirre

Glenn Robinson

Turk? Jalen Rose? The only guy JJ remotely resembles is Smith, who was slower and had injury problems. Several of those guys had injury problems.

Ginobili:

Clyde Drexler

Scottie Pippen

Darrell Armstrong

Jason Kidd

Gary Payton

Jeff Hornacek

Sam Cassell

Chris Mullin

Michael Jordan

Mookie Blaylock

Drexler and Darrell Armstrong as comps? MJ and Mookie? GTFO

A look at these comps is all you need to know that this is a bunch of nonsense.

[mrhonline]

Yeah, I like my comparisons better. I do think Jalen Rose is a decent comparison, though (good size, all-around game).

[macdaddy]

So the question that comes to mind is could we replace JJ with Rudy Gay? Is it possible, would we be much worse/better?