AJC: Is Bibby beat down?

[macdaddy]

Comparing Teague to Acie and Salim is just wrong. Those guys came in the game and did next to nothing. Teague comes in and penetrates, makes good passes, blocks, steals. Put the guy out there with Horf, Smoove, and Joe and see what we get. When you're a fast guard and you have to dodge Zaza, Powell, and Mo on your way to the lane and then have no one to dish to who can finish then you aren't always going to look great.

The point is we aren't really losing much by going with Teague over Bibby here in the middle of the season and what we gain will be invaluable. Teague's a player. I think he's our answer.

[Admin]

What he said and what he's doing are clearly two different things. What is it with posters hanging on to every word they want to read in an article? I seriously cannot believe that Bibby was limited in 4 consecutive games after falling off the map the previous few games because it was "the flow of the game." Are they playing cricket or basketball out there? When we don't see Bibby again in the 4th tonight will that be just another independent situation unrelating to any previous circumstance?

Without notice, Teague also started off that streak seeing more minutes but with little production then coincidentally saw his time cut in half before finally being DNP-CDed. The game(s) flow just didn't dictate for him to be out there.

The games have dictated that we needed to go in a different direction and I give LD credit for that, but don't try and make it seem like he was doing it to save Bibby's legs and to reduce the wear on him. He was doing it to win the game and he felt that whatever lineup he had out there gave him the best shot at it. As I said before Teague may not be ready for the prime time but he absolutely deserves to be playing consistent backup minutes just like Maynor is for OKC (thanks Tremor for that article BTW) OR we need to find a veteran PG on the cheap who can come in and do that ... of course that's barring a trade for a starter that would slide Bibby to the bench or one that would include him in the trade.

[NineOhTheRino]

Horrible coaching job by LD.

[MaceCase]

The games have dictated that we needed to go in a different direction and I give LD credit for that, but don't try and make it seem like he was doing it to save Bibby's legs and to reduce the wear on him. He was doing it to win the game and he felt that whatever lineup he had out there gave him the best shot at it. As I said before Teague may not be ready for the prime time but he absolutely deserves to be playing consistent backup minutes just like Maynor is for OKC (thanks Tremor for that article BTW) OR we need to find a veteran PG on the cheap who can come in and do that ... of course that's barring a trade for a starter that would slide Bibby to the bench or one that would include him in the trade.

How are those different? I don't get what you are arguing Dol, Bibby being dead is what has led to him barely playing 25 minutes over the last set of games yet you think that in each of those games 4 different circumstances arose that required LD to sit Bibby? 1 is an anomaly 2 is a trend so what does 4 look like to you? I mean seriously Dol, Bibby was averaging 36 minutes over the previous 8 games, his offense then disappears and all of a sudden he barely tops out at 25mpg over a 4 game stretch and you think it's just coincidence? Look at the evidence before you rather than taking one blurb in an article to be gospel.

[AHF]

Hoopinion has this interesting article on that matter: Production is in the eye of beholder

Everyone reading this thread should read the article tremor linked. It is directly on point with this.

[Admin]

How are those different? I don't get what you are arguing Dol, Bibby being dead is what has led to him barely playing 25 minutes over the last set of games yet you think that in each of those games 4 different circumstances arose that required LD to sit Bibby? 1 is an anomaly 2 is a trend so what does 4 look like to you? I mean seriously Dol, Bibby was averaging 36 minutes over the previous 8 games, his offense then disappears and all of a sudden he barely tops out at 25mpg over a 4 game stretch and you think it's just coincidence? Look at the evidence before you rather than taking one blurb in an article to be gospel.

What I said ...

He [LD] flat out says that he can see a difference in how he's moving but it won't be a situation where he cuts his minutes down because of that, it will only be because of how the game is going. So clearly that should mean that whatever decrease in minutes he's seen lately has been related to how the game is going and not because he's limiting Bibby for his benefit.

And what you said ...

What he said and what he's doing are clearly two different things. What is it with posters hanging on to every word they want to read in an article? I seriously cannot believe that Bibby was limited in 4 consecutive games after falling off the map the previous few games because it was "the flow of the game."

So you are clearly disagreeing that it's the "flow of the game" as to why Bibby isn't playing which must mean that you believe it's because he is trying to rest Bibby, correct? My ENTIRE point here is that LD SHOULD be resting Bibby because of his body breaking down but LD flat out says that isn't the case and you're building your entire argument on "posters hanging on to every word the coach says" and I'm sorry but if the coach is quoted as saying something I'm going to take him at face value for it and not try and believe that he has some ulterior motive that in this case he'd have no reason to hide.

[frosgrim]

Everyone reading this thread should read the article tremor linked. It is directly on point with this.

Just shows what having a coach secure in his position can do for you. Brooks is secure in OKC and feels he can afford to play Maynor. For a host of reasons Drew feels he has to win every game at the expsense of longer-term success.

[MaceCase]

*sigh* Dol....

Lets just look at the past 10 games

over the first 5 of those ten Bibby averaged 33mpg 10ppg on 37% shooting. These numbers include the Hornets game where he went 0-7 and he played limited minutes along with the rest of the starters in that blowout. Around that he played 37 minutes twice scoring 15 points both times and even had a 42 minute game against Sacramento.

Over the past 5 games Bibby has average 26mpg 4ppg on 24% shooting.

I clearly see zero correlation between his offensive effectiveness and the reduction of his minutes. Surely everything anyone says should be taken at face value especially a coach. There is absolutely zero reason to think that because he was playing heavy minutes before that Bibby's resulting decreased contributions have necessitated a reduction in minutes over a 5 game stretch. This is all just one massive coincidence and has nothing to do with a conscious decision made by Drew because he said it is in fact not a conscious decision made by him. Perhaps Drew is the idiot savant of coaches? /sarcasm.

So simply put, a tired Bibby is an ineffective BIbby but LD said he won't cut Bibby's minutes just because he's tired but would in fact base it on how effective Bibby is instead........

Do you see how sideways that logic is?

Edited February 8, 2011 by CrawfulToCrawesome

[Atlantaholic]

More often than not its better to look at how a team produces when a player is on the court and not how an individual player performs.

Except you wouldn't really have comparable sets of data when you consider that one of the players consistently plays the majority of his minutes with all of our best players on the court, while the other player barely gets any playing time and plays solely with the second unit. (which is one of the worst second units in the league outside of Crawford)

[AHF]

Except you wouldn't really have comparable sets of data when you consider that one of the players consistently plays the majority of his minutes with all of our best players on the court, while the other player barely gets any playing time and plays solely with the second unit. (which is one of the worst second units in the league outside of Crawford)

Agreed. Playing with Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford is a slight advantage.

By way of reference, in the top 5 lineups for Teague this season, he doesn't play one of them with even 2 of the 3 of Josh, Al and Joe. let alone all 3 of them.

Teague has played 19 of 494 minutes with Joe, Josh and Al. Bibby has played 740 of 1529 minutes with them.

Bibby has played only 28 minutes without 2 of the 3 of Smith, Horford and JJ on the floor which means he has played more than 98% of his minutes with 2 of the 3. Teague has played 44 minutes with 2 of the 3 on the floor or roughly 9%.

How can you compare the results on the floor when one guy plays 48% of his minutes with our 3 best players and the other plays less than 4% and when one guy plays 98% of his minutes with 2 of our 3 best players and the other guy plays 9%?

(Note: Numbers are not precise because only the top 20 lineups by minutes played are recorded on 82games. Therefore, there are some minutes excluded because they represent less than 10 minutes of floor time for Bibby or less than 6 minutes of floor time for Teague.)

Edited February 8, 2011 by AHF

[Admin]

OK outside of a difference in age and perceived development time, whats different in the way the board talks about them? Its still arguments of the coach needing to play him more even thought their production stinks. Its still the lame argument of "you need to play to develop" even though that is just a myth. You don't need to play gametime minutes to develop in the sense that Teague needs to develop into an average production player. Teague's problem isn't that he needs to play more crunch time minutes so he can develop nerves or something, Teague just flat out sucks when he is out there. Teague needs to develop in practice to earn minutes so Drew plays him, the causality runs the opposite direction. Development causes more minutes, and if you're clamoring for LD to give Teague more minutes you need to be clamoring for Teague to get better because that is the only time we will see Teague get more minutes. LD isn't dumb, if a player sucks (see Etan Thomas) then he won't play him.

Since when do you not need game time to develop? Since when in any profession do you not need actual time doing the job to become good at it?

I suppose I'd rather see LD play Teague like OKC is doing with Maynor as is pointed out in that article Tremor posted which shows their similar production and clearly indicates that Teague should be getting similar consistent minutes.

[AHF]

Since when do you not need game time to develop? Since when in any profession do you not need actual time doing the job to become good at it?

I suppose I'd rather see LD play Teague like OKC is doing with Maynor as is pointed out in that article Tremor posted which shows their similar production and clearly indicates that Teague should be getting similar consistent minutes.

Come on, Dolfan. Russell Westbrook is no Mike Bibby.

[Admin]

*sigh* Dol....

Lets just look at the past 10 games

over the first 5 of those ten Bibby averaged 33mpg 10ppg on 37% shooting. These numbers include the Hornets game where he went 0-7 and he played limited minutes along with the rest of the starters in that blowout. Around that he played 37 minutes twice scoring 15 points both times and even had a 42 minute game against Sacramento.

Over the past 5 games Bibby has average 26mpg 4ppg on 24% shooting.

I clearly see zero correlation between his offensive effectiveness and the reduction of his minutes. Surely everything anyone says should be taken at face value especially a coach. There is absolutely zero reason to think that because he was playing heavy minutes before that Bibby's resulting decreased contributions have necessitated a reduction in minutes over a 5 game stretch. This is all just one massive coincidence and has nothing to do with a conscious decision made by Drew because he said it is in fact not a conscious decision made by him. Perhaps Drew is the idiot savant of coaches? /sarcasm.

So simply put, a tired Bibby is an ineffective BIbby but LD said he won't cut Bibby's minutes just because he's tired but would in fact base it on how effective Bibby is instead........

Do you see how sideways that logic is?

My point has nothing to do with Bibby's production and everything to do with the amount of rest he's getting and why it is that he's seen a reduction in his minutes lately. LD says it's because of game situations dictating why Bibby has played less and you disagreed with that so what exactly is the point that you're arguing?

And no LD did not say that he would cut Bibby's minutes based on his effectiveness. I think that you need to go back and read what he said again (although that would dictate a need to depend on the coaches word). Here is LD's exact quote ...

“He may be experiencing a little [fatigue],” he said. “I have been watching a lot of film of him earlier in the season versus now, and clearly you can see a difference in how he’s moving. And his legs may be a little tired. It won’t be a situation of me giving up on him or me really cutting his minutes down. If I cut his minutes down, it will only be because of how the game is going, [if] we are in a pretty good rhythm.”

Notice how he doesn't say anything at all about Bibby's production?

Come on, Dolfan. Russell Westbrook is no Mike Bibby.

Not sure why you would think that I was considering them as equals. My point is that if Maynor is getting a consistent 14mpg then at worst Teague, who is putting up similar production PER36, should be getting similar consistent minutes.

[AHF]

You can always condition on looking at line-ups where the only difference is Bibby-Teague and then weight them appropriately.

One problem is you need better data to do that. Looking at regular old 82games.com won't work because they weight the line-ups by minutes played and some of the lineups don't match (Bibby has never played with Jordan, Powell, Pachulia, and Evans). There is a section on 82games.com that shows "Top 5-Man Units" with minutes and a few statistics. The issue there is we only see 20 line-ups used and the statistics are very few although this could still give us a rough guess. Synergy might be a good way to look at this, but I have never used Synergy so I can't say much about it without talking out of my *ss.

Either way I don't think this should be looked at through individual statistics. Point guard is too vital to the flow of an offense that a lot gets missed in simple individual statistics. The eyeball test tells me that Teague makes everyone worse off when he plays, so we should look to see whether or not everyone else is worse off when Teague plays. Worse off implies a relative measure which is what we should care about since we are essentially arguing whether Teague should play more.

It seems like that comparison only tells you which one should be playing the most minutes anyway. Your comparison seems like it is consistent with a view that Teague should get a consistent minority of minutes to provide Bibby extra rest while Bibby should get the majority of minutes since he is better able to manage the flow of the game.

As you point out, Bibby nearly always plays with our best starters while Teague almost never does so finding any kind of statistically significant overlap is very difficult for those two players.

Not sure why you would think that I was considering them as equals. My point is that if Maynor is getting a consistent 14mpg then at worst Teague, who is putting up similar production PER36, should be getting similar consistent minutes.

It was tongue in cheek. If Maynor can get consistent minutes with inferior production on a team with a much better, much younger, and much fresher Westbrook you would think an older Bibby who isn't as good and needs more rest would afford at least a similar opportunity for consistent minutes.

[Admin]

It was tongue in cheek. If Maynor can get consistent minutes with inferior production on a team with a much better, much younger, and much fresher Westbrook you would think an older Bibby who isn't as good and needs more rest would afford at least a similar opportunity for consistent minutes.

Ahh that makes sense then ... and yep I completely agree.

You need to be qualified to be in a position to actually do a job. I wouldn't send a first-year medical student out to do brain surgery even if they were supposed to be a brain surgeon in a few years. Once that student develops enough knowledge then I would let them think about doing brain surgery. I certainly wouldn't shove them into surgery, let them butcher 3 brains and expect on their 4th surgery to miraculously figure everything out.

Looking at OKC's roster, Maynor is the next logical choice at PG when Westbrook is out (and then Royal!). We have options though seeing as Jamal is more than capable of running point. Similar production, but drastically different make-up of the team.

Okay using your analogy I'd consider brain surgery to be the critical moments of the game and you're right I certainly wouldn't put Teague out there for them right now but I'd absolutely want him to get some type of "surgery experience" so that he's comfortable with certain procedures and the stresses that come with the task and it's the same with basketball. You aren't going to rush him into playing crunch time minutes but he's got to get some minutes, otherwise he'll never be ready as nobody goes from DNP's to being ready to start without some middle ground.

[coachx]

Agreed. Playing with Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford is a slight advantage.

By way of reference, in the top 5 lineups for Teague this season, he doesn't play one of them with even 2 of the 3 of Josh, Al and Joe. let alone all 3 of them.

Teague has played 19 of 494 minutes with Joe, Josh and Al. Bibby has played 740 of 1529 minutes with them.

Bibby has played only 28 minutes without 2 of the 3 of Smith, Horford and JJ on the floor which means he has played more than 98% of his minutes with 2 of the 3. Teague has played 44 minutes with 2 of the 3 on the floor or roughly 9%.

How can you compare the results on the floor when one guy plays 48% of his minutes with our 3 best players and the other plays less than 4% and when one guy plays 98% of his minutes with 2 of our 3 best players and the other guy plays 9%?

(Note: Numbers are not precise because only the top 20 lineups by minutes played are recorded on 82games. Therefore, there are some minutes excluded because they represent less than 10 minutes of floor time for Bibby or less than 6 minutes of floor time for Teague.)

Excellent post.

The only thing I don't like about LD is how he will plays 5 bench players together at one time.

I do see his reasoning for it. Teague seems to play more tentative when he is on the floor with the starters. However, there is not enough of a sample size to draw a conclusion here. I'm assuming that LD thinks Teague will be forced to play more aggressive when he is on the floor with other bench guys but I would prefer to see him get more minutes with the starters too........especially in the 3rd quarter. Teague is hardly getting any 2nd half minutes right now. If he got the chance to play with the starters more the resluts may be pleasantly suprising.....especially when Bibby's shot is off. He seems to be cutting down on his mental mistakes.

Edited February 8, 2011 by coachx

[MaceCase]

My point has nothing to do with Bibby's production and everything to do with the amount of rest he's getting and why it is that he's seen a reduction in his minutes lately. LD says it's because of game situations dictating why Bibby has played less and you disagreed with that so what exactly is the point that you're arguing?

And no LD did not say that he would cut Bibby's minutes based on his effectiveness. I think that you need to go back and read what he said again (although that would dictate a need to depend on the coaches word). Here is LD's exact quote ...

Notice how he doesn't say anything at all about Bibby's production?

Say what? LD clearly said and you clearly reiterated that he won't cut Bibby's minutes due to fatigue but if it were to happen it'll be due to how the game is going.....

Does Bibby's effectiveness have nothing to do with how a game goes?

Does his fatigue have nothing to do with his effectiveness?

I see zero attempt at explaining how over a span of 5 games a guy's minutes get cut by over 7 while also coinciding with his efficiency falling off a cliff while also coincidentally following another stretch of games where he was playing above his season average. Is that not a large enough sample size for you? Are you just trying to be exceptionally thick or should I blame LD for not being able to properly describe what his gameplan is?

I just can't understand for the life of me how a player says he's tired, a coach says the player looks tired and then all of a sudden his minutes get cut over a span of games but then people are complaining that the coach is not resting said player because the coach said that he's not resting said player but is actually following some mysterious principles.

You'd have a point if this was a singular game but I've put evidence in front of you and you are just disregarding it altogether and refuse to make any inferences from it. Whatever, view it however you want to view it. I see a coach doing something clear as day while claiming he's not, what should I put my belief in?

[Admin]

Say what? LD clearly said and you clearly reiterated that he won't cut Bibby's minutes due to fatigue but if it were to happen it'll be due to how the game is going.....

Does Bibby's effectiveness have nothing to do with how a game goes?

Does his fatigue have nothing to do with his effectiveness?

I see zero attempt at explaining how over a span of 5 games a guy's minutes get cut by over 7 while also coinciding with his efficiency falling off a cliff while also coincidentally following another stretch of games where he was playing above his season average. Is that not a large enough sample size for you? Are you just trying to be exceptionally thick or should I blame LD for not being able to properly describe what his gameplan is?

I just can't understand for the life of me how a player says he's tired, a coach says the player looks tired and then all of a sudden his minutes get cut over a span of games but then people are complaining that the coach is not resting said player because the coach said that he's not resting said player but is actually following some mysterious principles.

You'd have a point if this was a singular game but I've put evidence in front of you and you are just disregarding it altogether and refuse to make any inferences from it. Whatever, view it however you want to view it. I see a coach doing something clear as day while claiming he's not, what should I put my belief in?

What I cannot understand is how you expect us to believe that you're right about your hunch but that we're ridiculous for being the exact words out of the coaches mouth. The coach said he's not reducing his minutes due to fatigue which is good enough for me and you can either believe that or not.

[hawkman]

Comparing Teague to Acie and Salim is just wrong. Those guys came in the game and did next to nothing. Teague comes in and penetrates, makes good passes, blocks, steals. Put the guy out there with Horf, Smoove, and Joe and see what we get. When you're a fast guard and you have to dodge Zaza, Powell, and Mo on your way to the lane and then have no one to dish to who can finish then you aren't always going to look great.

The point is we aren't really losing much by going with Teague over Bibby here in the middle of the season and what we gain will be invaluable. Teague's a player. I think he's our answer.

I have to agree with this.

[HawkItus]

What I cannot understand is how you expect us to believe that you're right about your hunch but that we're ridiculous for being the exact words out of the coaches mouth. The coach said he's not reducing his minutes due to fatigue which is good enough for me and you can either believe that or not.

May I step in and hopefully bridge a communication gap? I think you are missing his point. Drew(correctly) says that he will not reduce Bibby's minutes because of fatigue. That is to say, if Bibby plays better than any other option Drew has at his disposal, he will not "rest" Bibby. If because of fatigue Bibby can not meet the teams needs as far as shooting or defense then Drew will and has decreased his minutes. To offer an example you as Admin won't restrict a users posting because he is a jack *ss. If said user starts to posting and ruining the experience of others by being a jack *ss, you will restrict his posting. It's not his personality that you are reacting to, but his actions.