Are we going to be any worse this year?

[Diesel]

Why because of one player? Joe ? Think about this .When we lost Horford , we weren't prepared for it, we didn't bring in any kind of replacement not even an old scrub, and we still were a 4th seed.We have added a good shooter Morrow and a decent scorer in Harris ,and we haven't signed any free agents .So I dont see any reason to think we'll be in the lottery.

Chemistry. Chemistry is a huge deal. Like I have said before.. Josh nor Horf has ever had to deal with a double team. Josh will make bad decisions and I don't know about Horf. Moreover, Horf is not Joe. Joe brings some stuff to the game that Horf doesn't and vice versa. I thnk what we proved is that Zaza could replace Horf for a short term.

[Joker]

If Devin Harris is anything like he was in 2009, Horford could be a 20-23ppg-10-12 rpg guy.

[Joker]

Chemistry. Chemistry is a huge deal. Like I have said before.. Josh nor Horf has ever had to deal with a double team. Josh will make bad decisions and I don't know about Horf. Moreover, Horf is not Joe. Joe brings some stuff to the game that Horf doesn't and vice versa. I thnk what we proved is that Zaza could replace Horf for a short term.

LOL Diesel, we don't have good chemistry really ever. We have two extremely talented fowards and we still have great defenders and now we have legit scorers off the bench, not chuckers like Pargo and Green. We still have our starting five for the most part outside of Joe. Edited July 4, 2012 by Joker

[Joker]

I am liking this Harris trade more and more.

According to Stats Inc (and David Locke) Devin Harris was the 6th most clutch player in the 2011-12 season.

Clutch is defined as the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter with a 6 point separation. All players needed to have taken 50 shots during clutch time. Interestingly, last year’s #1 picked Kyrie Irving was the most clutch player in the NBA this season (suck on that, Queen James).

This puts him ahead of Paul Pierce (7), Russel Westbrook (8), Tony Parker (9), Deron Williams (27), Dwayne Wade (19), and Kobe Bryant (31).

I remember several times this year when Devin Harris took over in the last quarter (the Heat game comes to mind). He is a very valuable player to have on the floor during crunch time, and so are Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap.

Al Jefferson is the 12th most clutch, and Paul Millsap is 21st.

Here’s the Locked on Jazz link:

http://c296307.r7.cf1.rackcdn.com/lockedonjazz/files/2012/05/cluch-players.png

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I think we will be ever so slightly worse... I'd put us at 40-45 wins and a 5-7 seed in the playoffs. Out in the first round. I believe we will definitely still be competitive even with teams like the Heat, Celtics, Spurs, and Lakers... Horf and Smoove will get us through the season and Stevenson will give us Joe's defense... ALA Horf and Smoove are our forwards and Pachulia starts this season, we will be okay. If Drew continues to play Horf at 5, expect 40 wins.

[Joker]

I will be the first to admit when I am wrong but I am wrong on Harris. He is a PnR PG. I still don't like his court vision, decision making skills, and his consistency at times but he excels in the PnR even in Utah, they just didn't have the personnel.Horford will have a breakout year without question. I like the Hawks to win 50 games then.

[Robdawg]

I'd say bring back Jamal. Yes, his defense is horrible but he can make the big shot and should fit into Drews' system easier without Joe. Plus it's obvious he wants to be a Hawk again.

[Diesel]

LOL Diesel, we don't have good chemistry really ever. We have two extremely talented fowards and we still have great defenders and now we have legit scorers off the bench, not chuckers like Pargo and Green. We still have our starting five for the most part outside of Joe.

Our problem was and still will be... No low post scorers. Horf is a face up High post scorer. Josh is a tweener who is allergic to the low post. In Morrow, we get one of the best shooters in the league but that doesn't mean much if we don't have the low post scorer. What I hope we try is PNR with Horf and Harris (or Teague)... at least that way we can push it out to Morrow.. but I believe what will happen is that Josh will be disruptive to our offense. I don't even think we need to have D-12 to be successful, Lopez would do the job. However, I would like to see us be successful. Moreover, we haven't done anything to improve our rebounding. The bottom line is that Josh/Horf is a bad match.

[jhay610]

This roster is worse, but there's still time. You don't lose a guy like JJ and get better.Who is going to create their own shot on this team at the end of a game that you want taking that shot?Problems.

[Joker]

Our problem was and still will be... No low post scorers. Horf is a face up High post scorer. Josh is a tweener who is allergic to the low post. In Morrow, we get one of the best shooters in the league but that doesn't mean much if we don't have the low post scorer. What I hope we try is PNR with Horf and Harris (or Teague)... at least that way we can push it out to Morrow.. but I believe what will happen is that Josh will be disruptive to our offense. I don't even think we need to have D-12 to be successful, Lopez would do the job. However, I would like to see us be successful. Moreover, we haven't done anything to improve our rebounding. The bottom line is that Josh/Horf is a bad match.

Horford can cut, screen and cut, break to cut, and he run all needed PnR finishing moves. He runs the court better than any big as well as Smoove. Horford is a PnR PF to the T and an elite one at that. That's his game. He can play with his back to the basket at times and even dominate depending on the opponent but it's not consistent at all. Saying Horf is a face up high post player is true but he excels at a lot more than that. I said, you get a PnR PG, we can use Al as a #1 option and I am not backing down from that. He fits that too well but Harris doesn't have the court vision or the half court skill to make everyone better as a Nash or Stockton but he would fit Horf which is most important. Teague is horrible at the PnR in terms of creating, it's a waste of time to even talk about it. He has little court vision, he has tunnel vision, he wants to score off of it, he's a poor passer as well. I can't wait to see what this team will do. If Horf excels, I can see Dwight coming here as a FA next year or Orlando begging us to trade Horf and Jeff straight up for Dwight in Feb. I don't see them making a trade yet as long as Dwight isn't ext with no team not named Brooklyn.

[Joker]

This roster is worse, but there's still time. You don't lose a guy like JJ and get better. Who is going to create their own shot on this team at the end of a game that you want taking that shot? Problems.

Harris is one of the most clutch guys in the NBA. Horford can easily be a #1 option with a PnR PG. That's a big part of it. So far, we are a much better team than last year and we still have a lot of money. I can see Smith being used as a SF and PF this year.

[lethalweapon3]

As it stands, we'll be a tad worse, but not so much that we'll fall out of the playoffs, for whatever that's worth these days. To become a lottery team Washington and/or Milwaukee will have to finally get their stuff together, plus four Atlantic Division teams (Boston, Knicks, Nets, Philly) have to keep their out-of-division records strong since they'll be cannibalizing each other.~lw3

[Alex]

Worse and I hope we are in the lottery. What good is making the playoffs when you have zero shot of winning anything and end up with a mid 20's selection.

[Joker]

What worries me is how bad Harris was for the most part in Utah. He was 30th in offensive eff and Jeff wasn't even listed at all.

Top 30 NBA PGs, Offensive Efficiency

Top 30 NBA PGs, Offensive Efficiency

Offensive Efficiency differs slightly for different positions. For PGs, the heaviest weight is given to one's Passing Efficiency. Hustle Efficiency and Scoring Efficiency count as well but at lower levels.

1. Chris Paul 103.6

2. Rajon Rondo 95.9

3. Jeremy Lin 95.8

4. Derrick Rose 95.7

5. Steve Nash 95.0

6. Deron Williams 93.4

7. Tony Parker 92.5

9. John Wall 90.0

9. Russell Westbrook 88.9

10. Stephen Curry 88.8

11. Kyrie Irving 87.8

12. Kyle Lowry 87.8

13. Mike James 87.4--

14. Goran Dragic 86.8

15. Ricky Rubio 84.9

16. Ty Lawson 84.7

17. Brandon Jennings 81.8

18. Jose Calderon 81.0

19. Patty Mills 80.4--

20. J.J. Barea 80.3

21. Ramon Sessions 80.3

22. Mike Conley 79.8

23. Baron Davis 79.4-

24. D.J. Augustin 78.7

25. Isaiah Thomas 78.3

26. T.J. Ford 78.1--

27. Aaron Brooks 77.7*

28. Jamaal Tinsley 77.4-

29. Beno Udrih 77.4

30. Devin Harris 77.2

* = Stats from 2010/2011

- = Played <660 minutes

-- = Played <330 minutes

Among those with 660+ minutes:

Most Efficient Scorers: Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving

Most Efficient Passers: Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, Jose Calderon

Most Efficient Hustlers: Earl Watson, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul

Least Efficient Scorer: Earl Watson

Least Efficient Passer: Jimmer Fredette

Least Efficient Hustler: J.J. Barea

[KB21]

Worse and I hope we are in the lottery. What good is making the playoffs when you have zero shot of winning anything and end up with a mid 20's selection.

Sigh. http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/03/26/you-don%E2%80%99t-need-to-be-bad-to-be-good-in-the-nba-2/ Basically, if you want to pretty much ensure that you won't be good for a while, tank. It's a lot easier to go from a pretty good team to an excellent team than it is to go from a very bad team to an excellent team. Even the data shows that over a 4 year period, bad teams don't become excellent teams just because they are picking high in the draft. What the Hawks have done is effectivley remodel the team around Al Horford and Josh Smith at this point, created ample amounts of financial flexibility by moving Joe's contract, and as a result, have likely only decreased their projected win total by no more than 5 wins, if that. I am working on a project right now to project the Hawks record based on win shares, and while I still have some work to do on the numbers, I'm coming up with 48.75 wins for the Hawks. The Hawks would have won 50 games over an 82 game schedule last year. If this bears out, it is a net loss of only 1.25 wins. If the Hawks do sign Courtney Lee though, that may push them over the 50 win mark in 2012-2013.

[Joker]

Harris-Horford will carry the Hawks offensively. You put two transition players with an elite PnR PF and a very good PnR PG. You have the making of this team killing you using the PnR every other possession in the regular season. Not sure how this would work in the playoffs. In 2009, Harris was a top 5-8 PG. He is still the same player. He was a major piece for Utah with Favors for Deron.

Edited July 4, 2012 by Joker

[Plainview1981]

People put too much stock in Joe's shot creating ability. Many times Joe settled for bad shots. Really long stretches where he produced nothing. Something that we will get from Devin that we never got from Joe, and that is the ability to get to the free throw line. Which has always been a big thing for me.

[Plainview1981]

Depending on how you look at it, we have 3 guys here that can give all star production. Making the playoffs wouldn't shock me.

[Supporter]

Sigh. http://www.freakonom...d-in-the-nba-2/ Basically, if you want to pretty much ensure that you won't be good for a while, tank. It's a lot easier to go from a pretty good team to an excellent team than it is to go from a very bad team to an excellent team. Even the data shows that over a 4 year period, bad teams don't become excellent teams just because they are picking high in the draft. What the Hawks have done is effectivley remodel the team around Al Horford and Josh Smith at this point, created ample amounts of financial flexibility by moving Joe's contract, and as a result, have likely only decreased their projected win total by no more than 5 wins, if that. I am working on a project right now to project the Hawks record based on win shares, and while I still have some work to do on the numbers, I'm coming up with 48.75 wins for the Hawks. The Hawks would have won 50 games over an 82 game schedule last year. If this bears out, it is a net loss of only 1.25 wins. If the Hawks do sign Courtney Lee though, that may push them over the 50 win mark in 2012-2013.

Win shares.....hmmmm I'm looking at basketball reference, correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Joe and Josh have similar win shares?

[Plainview1981]

I'm thinking more of 39-42 wins if the team remains healthy.