Josh Smith and Jeff Teague will be the major signings

[lethalweapon3]

HOOPSWORLD this morning on the "Lightmare" (Dwightmare Light) potential in 2013:

(Warning: turn down your audio before clicking the links... their video ad autoplay is unbearable).

http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-the-next-nightmare-in-the-nba/

The Next Drama? If you thought the “Dwightmare” was bad, keep in mind that what played out in Orlando will be the new normal.

Admittedly, some players will handle the process differently and some of the teams will be more proactive at keeping things in-house, but with contract extensions now bad business in the NBA, more and more would-be free agents are going to opt to hit free agency and land new five year deals than calming the media storm with three-year extensions.

There are a few player situations to watch in the coming months, and here is what we know today:

Chris Paul – Los Angeles Clippers Before you get too excited, Chris Paul is likely staying in L.A. with the Clippers long-term. The wheels would really have to fall off in a major way and if you look at the moves the Clips have made to surround Paul with veteran talent, CP3 has gotten everything he’s wanted. If things go toxically bad, maybe he explores other teams, but the word from CP3 and from the Clippers is they will do a max contract in July and both sides have an understanding on how it will play out.

Josh Smith – Atlanta Hawks You can lump Josh Smith into the “would rather stay” bunch. Smith likes what the team is trying to do and he is onboard with the game plan. He has made it clear to virtually everyone in the organization that he’s not spending his career watching the NBA Finals, and he’s put the pressure and the onus on them to put a winner around him.

Now there is some truth to the idea that new Hawks’ GM Danny Ferry is a bit ruthless and, like Rob Hennigan in Orlando, he may realize that dealing Josh at the trade deadline might return more pieces than he can acquire in free agency, especially if paying Josh a max-level deal in July is on tap.

It’s not out of the question that Josh Smith is traded, so if there is a name on this list to watch it’s likely Smith.

The Hawks say they are building around Josh Smith and Al Horford, but with Josh hitting unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career in July, there is risk.

Andrew Bynum – Philadelphia 76ers Sources close to Andrew Bynum say he is beyond thrilled about the situation in Philadelphia. He’ll get the chance to be his own star, be the focal point of the team and remain in the discussion as an All-Star starter.

Bynum is in the final year of his deal and, like all of the names on this list, is not signing a contract extension. The 76ers say they are OK with the risk, because they feel they acquired a marquee center that will stay long-term.

Unless the wheels completely come off the franchise, a new deal for Bynum is almost assured because those that know him say he will not leave the money on the table to walk away and Philly has been given some level of assurance that Bynum is OK with what this new situation means for him. There have been no “commitments” made, but like Chris Paul and the Clippers, the 76ers understand where they stand with Bynum long-term.

The “will he stay or will he go” story will dominate the NBA for the life of this labor deal, and maybe that was by design. Nothing generates hype and interest around the NBA game more than a good trade rumor and with how the system is now constructed, the major name players will always hit free agency rather than extend, which means the “Dwightmare” won’t be the last circus we have to endure.

Fortunately, a lot of the guys in similar situations are likely staying where they are, but if injuries strike or things go toxically bad early in the season, things could warm up fast, especially in Atlanta.

~lw3

[AHF]

but with contract extensions now bad business in the NBA, more and more would-be free agents are going to opt to hit free agency and land new five year deals than calming the media storm with three-year extensions.

This is true. I have no idea why the NBA negotiators agreed to a system where teams can't offer during a season the same extension they can offer during the offseason. It absolutely hurts the small and mid market teams. Edited August 14, 2012 by AHF

[MaceCase]

This is true. I have no idea why the NBA negotiators agreed to a system where teams can't offer during a season the same extension they can offer during the offseason. It absolutely hurts the small and mid market teams.

I think to balance that out they made it that you can only receive a 5 year deal from your original team and not through any sign and trade or to Liz tax teams. This helps your favorite option of if a star wants out he'll demand a trade to a team of his choice for scraps rather than walking during free agency for nothing. ;-)

[AHF]

I think to balance that out they made it that you can only receive a 5 year deal from your original team and not through any sign and trade or to Liz tax teams.

They already had the "more years and larger raises" dynamic in the last CBA, though. I don't know why they encouraged the Dwight/Carmelo/Paul, etc. situation by not allowing that offer until after the current contract is entirely complete. The whole articulated theory behind the years being reduced but maintaining the "more years, more money" dynamic was to aid teams in resigning their own max level free agents. This obviously runs counter to that goal and seems like it isn't one that the NBAPA would push for either - the player can always wait until FA to make up his mind but now he can't get the extension and security of the extension while under contract. It just doesn't seem to do anything for the NBA or its players except encourage lots of free agent "will he, won't he" media attention (which I would argue is not the kind of attention you want but I recognize that reasonable minds could differ).

[Diesel]

So if you've never seen it why is it only when your favorite player get's traded (who wasn't getting it done) that all of a sudden your expectations for a championship goes up? Tight parameters must be put in place for what has to happen in his absence. Who has to be signed. When they have to be signed. All of these criterias must be met to justify the move of your golden lamb.

It's all rather ludicrous and hilarious at the same time.

I felt the same way when Nique was traded.

I felt the same way when Smitty was traded.

I felt the same way when Shareef was traded.

We have seen this before. It's a pattern. It's not about my favorite player, it's about the best player we have and the best free agent draw we have.

Josh can't even get his best friend to consider us.

Joe going to Brooklyn was reason enough for Deron to choose Brooklyn over his hometown.

Moreover, it's always done the same way... with no real plan to follow.

The only time we've done one of these blowups with some semblence of a plan was trading Smitty for Jim Jackson and JR Rider. The plan was getting younger (sound familiar). The problem was we paid no attention to detail and we brought in a lottery pick PG to play with selfish SGs... and it slowed JT's development as a pro PG. That's called Chemistry Problems.

Why is it that people always fail to see the Chemistry in these moves?

If you have one guy that can create for himself... who has lead your team in assist for 5 of 6 years... Why would you trade that guy without getting a ball distributor starter back?

[Diesel]

Jo Josh took an ill advised shot with a couple of seconds left on the clock. Horford missed his free throws. Teague was not convincing enough on his fouled last shot. Drew got out coached with a great play to get Josh the open lane for a dunk but Doc took the quick foul. Worst of all Joe got sonned by Paul Pierce getting blocked with that slow dribble and drive to the hole. I don't know if either one of them ever left the ground. All in all we lost as a team but our 100 million dollar man couldn't finish the play strong. Yes that whole series could have went either way but the guy who was suppose to lead us ran out of gas. It would have maybe been acceptable if he carried our team during most of last year but that load was carried more by Josh and our deep bench!! I thought Joe was saving his energy for the playoffs but apparently not.

Offensively. Howabout on defense? KG avereaged 18.7, 10.5, and 2 on 50.6% shooting against us. that means that he scored on us at will. In game 6... 28, 14, and 3 with 5 blocks and 2 steals... This was that old dude who averaged around 15 in the reg season. He said he did it because of Gearon. However, the point is we couldn't stop him! That's why we lost. If we could have even slowed KG, Boston would not have been in the game. as far as Joe is concerned... You don't have to worry about him getting that double team no more. Josh can maintain that 38.9 FG% too.

[AHF]

Offensively. Howabout on defense? KG avereaged 18.7, 10.5, and 2 on 50.6% shooting against us. that means that he scored on us at will. In game 6... 28, 14, and 3 with 5 blocks and 2 steals... This was that old dude who averaged around 15 in the reg season. He said he did it because of Gearon. However, the point is we couldn't stop him! That's why we lost. If we could have even slowed KG, Boston would not have been in the game. as far as Joe is concerned... You don't have to worry about him getting that double team no more. Josh can maintain that 38.9 FG% too.

We also lost because Joe didn't even produce as a league average player. An 11.8 PER from your healthy $18M/season player doesn't cut it.

[MaceCase]

They already had the "more years and larger raises" dynamic in the last CBA, though. I don't know why they encouraged the Dwight/Carmelo/Paul, etc. situation by not allowing that offer until after the current contract is entirely complete.

The whole articulated theory behind the years being reduced but maintaining the "more years, more money" dynamic was to aid teams in resigning their own max level free agents. This obviously runs counter to that goal and seems like it isn't one that the NBAPA would push for either - the player can always wait until FA to make up his mind but now he can't get the extension and security of the extension while under contract.

It just doesn't seem to do anything for the NBA or its players except encourage lots of free agent "will he, won't he" media attention (which I would argue is not the kind of attention you want but I recognize that reasonable minds could differ).

I think you are still missing the part where stars can't lay in wait until free agency then get more years, larger raises and still end up playing for the team of their choosing. The "will he, won't he" will always exist but now stars will have to opt for the Carmelo/Dwight route and let their team know they want to be traded to their preffered team earlier instead of the Lebron/Bosh wait til free agency and take a token pay cut route (and that was by choice). If a guy stays quiet throughout the last year of his deal on a team it's actually seemingly more like he'll resign unless the money really isn't that important to them.

Why is it that people always fail to see the Chemistry in these moves?

If you have one guy that can create for himself... who has lead your team in assist for 5 of 6 years... Why would you trade that guy without getting a ball distributor starter back?

2011-2012 NBA season.

Joe Johnson 19.7% assist rate

Jeff Teague 24.3% assist rate

Josh Smith 20.6% assist rate

Louis Williams 22.4% assist rate

Devin Harris 28.3% assist rate

If anything, Joe was actually disrupting "chemistry".

[AHF]

I think you are still missing the part where stars can't lay in wait until free agency then get more years, larger raises and still end up playing for the team of their choosing. The "will he, won't he" will always exist but now stars will have to opt for the Carmelo/Dwight route and let their team know they want to be traded to their preffered team earlier instead of the Lebron/Bosh wait til free agency and take a token pay cut route (and that was by choice). If a guy stays quiet throughout the last year of his deal on a team it's actually seemingly more like he'll resign unless the money really isn't that important to them.

I get that. What I am missing is why that couldn't all have been accomplished while still giving the current team the ability to sign their player to an extension with the extra year and dollars while currently still under contract while simultaneously not allowing that to be done in an extend and trade context.

[MaceCase]

I get that. What I am missing is why that couldn't all have been accomplished while still giving the current team the ability to sign their player to an extension with the extra year and dollars while currently still under contract while simultaneously not allowing that to be done in an extend and trade context.

No idea but I'd guess because that wasn't the aspect that was hurting teams so why address that specifically from previous CBAs? To coincide with the NBA's years of service salary criterias? Maintain the aspect of allowing a guy the freedom and incentive to test free agency? (freedom of movement is still a great desire for both the NBA and NBAPA) In the case of the last bullet you are creating even greater anxiety when a guy turns down the exact contract in an extension that he could receive in free agency which would ramp up "will he, won't he" speculations to overdrive.

[Kimsey]

We'll give Josh a Rudy Gayesque deal. If he insists on a max, there is always a snt. Jefferson and Pekovic are not on the list. There are alot of free agents and only a handful of teams with big money.I feel Jefferson compliments Al and Josh well offensively and defensively. He actually avg 1.8 blocks for utah which I found curious in a good way.

[AHF]

No idea

Me either.

but I'd guess because that wasn't the aspect that was hurting teams so why address that specifically from previous CBAs?

In previous CBAs you could sign the extension so if it wasn't hurting teams, why change it?

To coincide with the NBA's years of service salary criterias?

Maybe, but I don't see any virtue in that in this context.

Maintain the aspect of allowing a guy the freedom and incentive to test free agency? (freedom of movement is still a great desire for both the NBA and NBAPA)

It doesn't affect freedom to test free agency, though. The guy is equally free either way. What it does take away is the player's ability to get financial security. If the player is the next Greg Oden, the earlier they can sign the better.

In the case of the last bullet you are creating even greater anxiety when a guy turns down the exact contract in an extension that he could receive in free agency which would ramp up "will he, won't he" speculations to overdrive.

This is true only where the player rejects the extension offer. I think on the whole this approach increases the anxiety because it doesn't allow a team like the LAC to extend Chris Paul now and puts their future in limbo and there is no way around it even if both the player and team agree that they are mutually anxious to get the extension behind them.

[Guest Walter]

If you're James Harden next year, whom do you sign with . . . Atlanta or Dallas? And the Thunder will probably match anything that isn't a MAX type of deal, so he won't be low-balled either. Atlanta WILL have to send a MAX offer to Harden, to even be in consideration to get him.

1) Atlanta. Nowitski will be 35 years old on June 19th. Harden's best years would be spent changing his diapers. 2) A max offer is what Harden is worth as at this stage in his career he is considerably better than JJ was in the same stage of his career and shooting %-wise he is better than JJ has ever been. 3) Yes, the Thunder may well match. However, they may not match if we send them a future 1st, 1st and 2nd or 2, 1sts, which IMO is reasonable given how the massive amount of cap space will afford us other means of acquiring talent in the LT hit heavy 2013 offseason, then they may very well not match (rather a sign and trade). Lastly, northcyde, this isn't a vacuum. Your whining about all the problem that inherently come with rebuilding a team do nothing to address much less change the fact that we were a luxury tax mediocre team saddled with the worst contract in the NBA. Relative to where we were we're considerably better off. No amount of boo-hooing changes that fact. I'm not asking you to look at the positives and put on a happy face. I'm asking you to look at the reality with JJ and his horrid contract, a reality where no face is needed. W

[Diesel]

We also lost because Joe didn't even produce as a league average player. An 11.8 PER from your healthy $18M/season player doesn't cut it.

But when you lose by single digits and KG pulls out 28 points....14 rebounds... Joe is not the problem. Moreover, if Boston's gameplan is to make sure that Joe's doesn't get a clean shot off... what in the hell is the rest of the team doing? Let's see, Josh shooting 30 something percent. Horf shoots a good percent but he shoots selectively. Mostly everybody else is a disappearing act. We needed some stops from the frontcourt. IF we had held KG to his average, we would have dusted Boston. HOwever, KG got over and above his average. He made us his woman and he put us on the corner.. and for all that, we say.. well, Joe could have scored more over the double team. I don't care if he was making 100 Million. Somebody else on the team has to do something.

[Diesel]

1) Atlanta. Nowitski will be 35 years old on June 19th. Harden's best years would be spent changing his diapers. 2) A max offer is what Harden is worth as at this stage in his career he is considerably better than JJ was in the same stage of his career and shooting %-wise he is better than JJ has ever been. W

R U saying that Harden in OKC now is better than Joe when he left Phoenix? 17.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, and 3.5 apg shooting 46% from 2 and 48% from 3. Harden is better than that? Let's wait and see.

[atlbraves93]

R U saying that Harden in OKC now is better than Joe when he left Phoenix? 17.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, and 3.5 apg shooting 46% from 2 and 48% from 3. Harden is better than that? Let's wait and see.

It's really not up for debate. Harden is better in basically every aspect than Joe during his Phoenix years. Joe's numbers were inflated because he played 40 MPG in his last two seasons in Phoenix. Harden's PER last season was 21.1; Joe's best PER in four seasons in PHX was 15.1. Plus Harden is a better defender than Joe was. I hate to disparage Joe because he was awesome for seven years in Atlanta, but this Hawks-bashing for the sake of JJ has to stop. The Hawks' trade with the nets was universally lauded across the league. We're in a better spot now. Edited August 16, 2012 by atlbraves93

[EazyRoc]

But when you lose by single digits and KG pulls out 28 points....14 rebounds... Joe is not the problem. Moreover, if Boston's gameplan is to make sure that Joe's doesn't get a clean shot off... what in the hell is the rest of the team doing? Let's see, Josh shooting 30 something percent. Horf shoots a good percent but he shoots selectively. Mostly everybody else is a disappearing act. We needed some stops from the frontcourt. IF we had held KG to his average, we would have dusted Boston. HOwever, KG got over and above his average. He made us his woman and he put us on the corner.. and for all that, we say.. well, Joe could have scored more over the double team. I don't care if he was making 100 Million. Somebody else on the team has to do something.

yea because Paul pierce didn't go off in a few games too.

[Supporter]

Just wanna add that I think that James Harden is a better NBA player than Joe, only due to his ability to play the pick n roll and his ability to get to the line due to his flopping.HOWEVER, I've watched Harden play and his game is absolutely pitiful to watch at times. The amount of flopping he does ruins the integrity of basketball. Sure he gets contact on some plays but the amount of free throws that he gets makes him seem like he is better than he really is.

[AHF]

But when you lose by single digits and KG pulls out 28 points....14 rebounds... Joe is not the problem. Moreover, if Boston's gameplan is to make sure that Joe's doesn't get a clean shot off... what in the hell is the rest of the team doing? Let's see, Josh shooting 30 something percent. Horf shoots a good percent but he shoots selectively. Mostly everybody else is a disappearing act. We needed some stops from the frontcourt. IF we had held KG to his average, we would have dusted Boston. HOwever, KG got over and above his average. He made us his woman and he put us on the corner.. and for all that, we say.. well, Joe could have scored more over the double team. I don't care if he was making 100 Million. Somebody else on the team has to do something.

Those things aren't mutually exclusive. We lost some close ones and if JJ would have performed at 80% of his good games in the past against the Celtics (when they were focusing on him just as much) then we might have won even with KG going off. Likewise, even with JJ blowing chunks we still could have won if Josh or Al had been able to shut KG down. Two ways up the same hill but we came up short on both. The failure of one way of winning doesn't excuse the failure of another way.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1) Atlanta. Nowitski will be 35 years old on June 19th. Harden's best years would be spent changing his diapers. 2) A max offer is what Harden is worth as at this stage in his career he is considerably better than JJ was in the same stage of his career and shooting %-wise he is better than JJ has ever been. 3) Yes, the Thunder may well match. However, they may not match if we send them a future 1st, 1st and 2nd or 2, 1sts, which IMO is reasonable given how the massive amount of cap space will afford us other means of acquiring talent in the LT hit heavy 2013 offseason, then they may very well not match (rather a sign and trade). Lastly, northcyde, this isn't a vacuum. Your whining about all the problem that inherently come with rebuilding a team do nothing to address much less change the fact that we were a luxury tax mediocre team saddled with the worst contract in the NBA. Relative to where we were we're considerably better off. No amount of boo-hooing changes that fact. I'm not asking you to look at the positives and put on a happy face. I'm asking you to look at the reality with JJ and his horrid contract, a reality where no face is needed. W

I've been looking at "reality" all summer. I saw a 6-time All-Star ( whether people thought he was legit or not ), get traded for garbage and cap space. There's not a team in the NBA who would've made a trade like that for a player who was still productive at that level . . regardless of what his contract was. They would've gotten more out of that deal than we did. As I keep saying. My main problem is NOT that JJ got traded. It's what he got traded FOR. I mean, who would've ever imagined that we'd get more from a Marvin Williams trade, than a Joe Johnson trade? That is mind boggling to me. Heck, we got more for trading Speedy and Acie than we did for trading JJ. But you guys are cool with that, because we have "cap space". And I know exactly what rebuilding is like. I watched the Hawks win 28 - 25 - 33 - 35 - 28 and 13 games in the years after we traded Mookie and Smitty for garbage and inefficient "good players" . . traded Dikembe for a washed up Theo Ratliff . . traded Pau Gasol for Shareef . . and then had to blow everything up again and start from the very bottom. And when we did blow it all up and had "cap space", no one wanted to come here. Heck, we damn near had to hijack JJ to come here. And it still took a top 3 lottery pick to finally get the team competitive enough to make the playoffs. There are much worse places to be, than a middling playoff team who can't win a title. You can be a team that has no hope of making the playoffs to begin with. Instead of being "Atlanta", you could be "Golden State". Ask Warrior fans if they'd trade places with the "mediocre" Hawks.