Detailed Run Down of How DF Can Get Us EVERYTHING - Draft Picks, Salaries, Cap Exceptions Inside!

[DatWerkk]

I spent the last couple of days looking over some scenarios, working out the math, reading up on the CBA, and trying to come up with a dream scenario that would meet all of the Hawks' needs financially while simultaneously putting them into title contention. What I've come up with keeps us right around the cap (or possibly a little over, read on for details) and immediately makes us one of the top three or four teams in the entire league.

Now, I'm no Larry Coon, so any and all amateur capologists reading this, please chime in and tell me where and how I messed up. But if I got everything right, please get me the personal cell phone number of Danny Ferry ASAP. Here goes...

HEAD COACH

Stan Van Gundy

ALREADY SIGNED RETURNERS

Al Horford

Lou Williams

John Jenkins

ROOKIES

1st Round, #17: CJ McCollum (if not available, then Shane Larkin or best available PG)

1st Round, #18: Jeff Withey (if not available, then Gorgui Dieng or best available C)

2nd Round, #17: Nate Wolters (if not available, then best available G)

2nd Round, #20: Doug McDermott (if not available, then best available SF)

FREE AGENTS

Chris Paul

Dwight Howard

Josh Smith (renounced then re-signed)

Kyle Korver (renounced then re-signed)

Ivan Johnson (renounced then re-signed)

Matt Barnes

Nazr Mohammed (if not possible, then Jason Collins)

Everyone else on the roster should be and needs to be renounced. Jeff Teague, Devin Harris, Zaza Pachulia, Johan Petro, Dahntay Jones, and Anthony Tolliver all affect the Hawks' cap flexibility and therefore need to be renounced right away so that the team can jump into the future with both feet. We'll all miss Teague and Zaza, but if you want a championship that's the way it's gotta be.

CONTRACTS AND EXCEPTIONS

This, of course, is where things get tricky. We won't know the actual 2013-14 salary cap figure until the league releases last year's revenue numbers (I believe this happens on June 30), but the projected cap is somewhere between $64.3 million and $67.9 million. This estimate comes from David Stern and the NBA themselves. It could turn out to be far less, in which case a lot of what I've come up with is straight garbage. I've seen lots of people throw the number $60 million out there, but I've never seen that number explained or justified. That would only be a 3% increase over last year's salary cap. For the Hawks' sake, let's hope that doesn't happen. For now though, let's assume the salary cap will fall into the $64.3 million-$67.9 million range.

The following players already have contracts/salaries that will count against the Hawks' cap:

Al Horford - $12,000,000

Lou Williams - $5,225,000

John Jenkins - $1,258,800

RUNNING TOTAL - $18,483,800

That's it. Just three dudes. Now it's time to start signing free agents:

Chris Paul - $17,000,000

Dwight Howard - $17,000,000

Josh Smith - $11,500,000

Kyle Korver - $3,500,000

RUNNING TOTAL - $67,483,800

If this scenario actually happened, I totally recognize that all four of these dudes would be taking a discount. You better damn well believe all of em could get more money elsewhere if they wanted to (yes, Mr. Ashton Kutcher included). But just as the Heat's Big 3 did three years ago, and just as other teams' players have done since, sometimes you have to make a sacrifice to get that ring. Danny Ferry and SVG would need to hit em with a little Pat Riley and convince these guys to take less money in order to build a championship team. They all love the city, they've all made good money, and none of them have a championship to his name. It's doable. So let's move on.

(As an aside, one of the best criticisms of this whole plan is offering Josh Smith $11.5 million. Even if he'd agree to the discount, many would argue he's not worth even that much. Take a look at the list of 2013 small forward free agents when you a the chance. If you're looking for a starter, and the Hawks SHOULD be, your choices are limited to Josh Smith, Paul Pierce, Andre Iguodala, Stephen Jackson, and Metta World Peace. Paul and Iggy would cost more than Josh, and at this point in their careers, SJack and MWP are marginal starters at BEST. There are probably some trade scenarios to consider that could net the Hawks a SF, or the Hawks could possibly move up in the draft and hope someone like Anthony Bennett or Otto Porter could start right away. I could go on for days scheming up those scenarios, but in the end all of them depend on other teams' cooperation. That's too many variables for this particular exercise. So, for the sake of simplicity, I went with what I think is a pretty damn good option: signing Smoove at a big discount.)

At this point we only have seven guys signed but we're already at the high end of the salary cap estimate. Sounds like game over, right? Not when you have a bunch of cap exceptions in your pocket. We're going to use three different types of cap exceptions:

BI-ANNUAL EXCEPTION: available every two years to teams whose salaries are less than $4 million above the luxury tax line

ROOKIE EXCEPTION: allows teams to sign their first round rookies to "scale" contracts, even if those contracts would put them over the cap

MINIMUM PLAYER SALARY EXCEPTION: allows teams to sign players to one- or two-year minimum contracts even if they are over the cap

So, with these three exceptions, the Hawks could make the following moves without adding a single dollar to their cap total:

Ivan Johnson - re-sign for $1,500,000 per year for two years using the Bi-Annual Exception ($707,000 of exception left over)

Mike Scott - pick up second year of contract for $788,872 using the Minimum Player Salary Exception

CJ McCollum/Shane Larkin - sign to rookie scale contract using the Rookie Exception (approximately $1,617,840)

Jeff Withey/Gorgui Dieng - sign to rookie scale contract using the Rookie Exception (approximately $1,536,960)

Nate Wolters - sign for two years using the Minimum Player Salary Exception (worth $490,180 the first year)

Doug McDermott - sign for two years using the Minimum Player Salary Exception (worth $490,180 the first year)

Take a look now: we just went from seven players under contract to 13 players under contract and we're still sitting at $67,483,800 in salary. Finally I'm going to add another couple of important pieces using the Minimum Player Salary Exception to flesh the team out:

Matt Barnes - sign for two years using the Minimum Player Salary Exception (worth $ 1,399,507 the first year)

Nazr Mohammed/Jason Collins - sign for one year using the Minimum Player Salary Exception (worth $1,399,507, but the league pays $884,293 of it)

Once again, signing these two players does nothing to the Hawks' salary cap situation. The number remains at $67,483,800. So let's see what we have now!

YOUR STARTERS

Chris Paul

Lou Williams

Josh Smith

Al Horford

Dwight Howard

DEPTH CHART BY POSITION

PG: Chris Paul, CJ McCollum/Shane Larkin, Nate Wolters

SG: Lou Williams, Kyle Korver, John Jenkins

SF: Josh Smith, Matt Barnes, Doug McDermott

PF: Al Horford, Ivan Johnson, Mike Scott

C: Dwight Howard, Jeff Withey/Gorgui Dieng, Nazr Mohammed/Jason Collins

There you have it. Shooters (Paul, McCollum, Wolters, Williams, Korver, Jenkins, McDermott, Horford) at almost every position. Elite defense (Paul, Smith, Barnes, Horford, Johnson, Howard, Withey/Dieng) at almost every position. Depth at every position. Strong at the two positions the Heat are weak at.

Now tell me... why can't this happen?

[Randy]

Because teams like the Hawks don't get star players from the Lakers. The Lakers get star players from teams like the Hawks.

[Admin]

You can't sign those marquee free agents because you're not counting cap holds for empty roster spots and draft picks. You want D12 and CP3 then you're not getting Smith unless they all take big paycuts and that's not happening. You put a lot of time and effort into this but that part doesn't work. I hope you're right that the cap will be that high but I highly doubt it as we haven't seen a yearly increase that high in a long time, if ever.

[taz]

Because teams like the Hawks don't get star players from the Lakers. The Lakers get star players from teams like the Hawks.

Yeah but Dwight Howard is crazy

[Randy]

I agree, Best possible answe r.

[ATLscrubLove]

Dude said Jason Collins... Dude is terrible. Wouldn't sign him if all he wanted was a Big Mac and a closet to jump back into.

[gurpilo]

McDermott has not declared for the draft, McCollum will not be available on first round.

[JTB]

Hey I like the motivation...and this was a great post! However your dream scenario only works if all of these players take BIG paycuts!I believe we can have a BIG 3 in either Howard, Horford, CP3....or Howard, Smith, CP3 but all 4 may be pushin it.But if those players want rings they should take paycuts in order to form the best team they possibly can.

[Nicholasp27]

Smith is a bad option if u want win rangzIf we get cp3 and d12 to pair up here with horford then we need SG and SF...let's look at good options there...perhaps even snt smoove for oneBut we need shooters around d12, not one of the worst shooters in the league who thinks he is steph curry or ray Allen

[Ruckus]

Good post. On paper looks great except for signing Josh. That would screw up SVG's system. We need a shooting wing to spread floor with Dwight.

[MrMeltdown]

Not a fan of your draft picks. Not a fan of Josh Smith as a starter needs to be 3rd big like Odom was during LA title run. Other than those things I'm okay with your dream.

[DrReality]

_{You can bet if there is anything suspect about your idea, it will be addressed; ie cut to shreds. But you got to believe Ferry dreams this stuff.}

[DatWerkk]

Mostly good points here. Instead of replying to all of y'all one by one and flooding this thread, let me try to address all the good points in one post.

CAP HOLDS

You can't sign those marquee free agents because you're not counting cap holds for empty roster spots and draft picks. You want D12 and CP3 then you're not getting Smith unless they all take big paycuts and that's not happening. You put a lot of time and effort into this but that part doesn't work.

So I went back and looked at cap holds and it turns out I did in fact miss some fine print. I thought by renouncing all of our FAs I got rid of all the cap holds but I did miss the stuff on empty roster spots and I think I may have glossed over the draft pick cap holds. So this is how that changes my math:

Al Horford - $12,000,000

Lou Williams - $5,225,000

John Jenkins - $1,258,800

17th pick Cap Hold - $1,348,200

18th pick Cap Hold - $1,280,800

Incomplete Roster Charge Cap Hold - $3,431,260 ($490,180 x 7)

So, prior to signing any free agents, the Hawks' salary for cap purposes is $24,544,060 and NOT $18,483,800 like I originally thought. That's a $6,060,260 increase, but if I understand the cap rules correctly every time we sign a free agent another $490,180 comes off that incomplete roster charge. Anyway, there are a handful of ways to deal with this new number, but I don't think it necessarily blows the whole thing up.

The biggest, easiest change to make could be to drop Josh Smith and pick another, more affordable starting SF. But, as I mentioned in my original post, I'm not exactly sure who that would be. Does anybody have any suggestions?

Al Horford - $12,000,000

Lou Williams - $5,225,000

John Jenkins - $1,258,800

17th pick Cap Hold - $1,348,200

18th pick Cap Hold - $1,280,800

Chris Paul - $17,000,000

Dwight Howard - $17,000,000

Kyle Korver - $3,500,000

Mystery free agent SF - somewhere between $6 million and $9 million

Incomplete Roster Charge Cap Hold - $1,470,540 ($490,180 x 3)

TOTAL SALARY - $64,612,000-$67,612,000 (depending on SF salary)

Another possible change is to drop Kyle Korver and replace him with a couple of minimum salary shooters and ask Josh to take $10.5 million instead of $11.5 million. Move John Jenkins up in the rotation and use the second round picks on shooters. That leads to this:

Al Horford - $12,000,000

Lou Williams - $5,225,000

John Jenkins - $1,258,800

17th pick Cap Hold - $1,348,200

18th pick Cap Hold - $1,280,800

Chris Paul - $17,000,000

Dwight Howard - $17,000,000

Josh Smith - $10,500,000

Incomplete Roster Charge Cap Hold - $1,960,720 ($490,180 x 4)

TOTAL SALARY - $67,573,520

That's a big paycut for Josh, but it's not so big as to be unreasonable to put it on the table. Either way, I like the first option better (keeping Korver, replacing Josh). I just have yet to figure out who that replacement would be.

ESTIMATED SALARY CAP

I hope you're right that the cap will be that high but I highly doubt it as we haven't seen a yearly increase that high in a long time, if ever.

Unless I'm mistaken, the cap is based on this mathematical formula:

((Projected BRI * 0.4474) - Projected Benefits)/30

The two numbers I've heard for projected BRI that are tied to the NBA front office are $5 billion and $4.76 billion. The number I've heard for projected benefits is $200 million. After that it's just math:

($5 billion * 0.4474) - 200 million) / 30 = $67.9 million

($4.76 billion * 0.4474) - 200 million) / 30 = $64.3 million

There's lots of room for error there since I'm using two early guesses for BRI and benefits, but I haven't seen ANYONE using this formula come up with anything under $62 million. Unless anyone can show me where the math is wrong, I'm sticking to $64.3 million/$67.9 million.

EXCEPTIONS

Also, when you use an "exception" the salary still counts towards the cap.

I had to go back and look. You're partially right and partially wrong. The Bi-Annual Exception counts towards the cap, but the Rookie Exception and the Minimum Player Salary Exception do not. So unless we renounce the Bi-Annual Exception, we will likely be treated as if we're going over the cap. However, as long as we sign the marquee players first, we can still use the Bi-Annual Exception to sign Ivan (or whomever). Did I miss anything?

It's definitely less ideal than the situation where we're not over the cap at all, but at least we wouldn't be over by much (< $2 million over). That's of course assuming I have the cap estimate right. =)

DRAFT PICKS

I haven't studied the draft that closely yet (that probably shows). If McDermott hasn't declared yet, my bad. I've seen him in several mock drafts, so I just went about assumin things. Serves me right. And I know McCollum likely won't still be on the board at 17, but we sure as hell better take him if he is! If he isn't, I like Shane Larkin, and if Larkin's gone too, I want to take another quick PG who can learn the ropes from CP3. The point is I want to go PG-C in the first round. And, as I said earlier in this post, with or without McDermott I'm content using the second round picks on efficient three point shooters to surround Howard and Horford.

JOSH SMITH VS OTHER SMALL FORWARD OPTIONS

The one thing I can agree with wholeheartedly is that Stan Van Gundy does NOT like the way Josh Smith plays. He's said so many times on the radio. I don't know if that means we would have to get rid of him (probably) or if we could keep him and Josh finally gets fixed (not likely).

What I'm not as quick to agree with is that the team can only be successful with a shooter in the starting small forward spot. We can put shooters at multiple other positions, both as starters and as role players off the bench, and let our SF be an athletic, fast, defensive guru who also runs the floor well on offense. That woul fit SVG's system just fine as long as we have Kyle Korvers, John Jenkinses, etc. elsewhere on the court.

[NBASupes]

I think it's a lock that Mike Scott will be a Hawk as well as Shevin Mack. Both are near min players and Scott was good for us last year. Mack has a contract for next year and Scott has an option.

[LamarHampton]

I hope both are back; both were cheap and effective and I think they both could turn out to be solid players deserving of much more minutes. But I didn't think Mack had a contract. You sure about that?

[NBASupes]

I hope both are back; both were cheap and effective and I think they both could turn out to be solid players deserving of much more minutes. But I didn't think Mack had a contract. You sure about that?

Two year deal. nothing guranteed. Ferry already said that Scott, Mack, and Jenkins will be in the Hawks SL.

[LamarHampton]

Poked around and you're right. Missed that altogether. Are you the real Danny Ferry???

BTW - when you wrote that "they will be in the Hawks SL" the first thing that came to mind was "Starting Lineup" and I thought you were on crack. I got you now though.

[NBASupes]

Poked around and you're right. Missed that altogether. Are you the real Danny Ferry???

BTW - when you wrote that "they will be in the Hawks SL" the first thing that came to mind was "Starting Lineup" and I thought you were on crack. I got you now though.

No, I am not Ferry.

lol my bad. Summer League, I should have specified that.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

DatWerkk, you had some good post ........ ( in my Stephen. A Smith voice ) .... howeva ......There is NO POSSIBLE SCENARIO that Josh Smith can be re-signed if we add Howard and Paul to this team.If we renounce all of our free agents, and our guaranteed salaries and roster cap holds are 24.5 million, CP3 and D12 have to be signed FIRST, to fit them under the salary cap. And if both are maxed out and make 17 million in year 1, that's 34 million that they'll take up.23.5 million + 34 million = 57 million in cap space used.Josh is not playing for the MLE next year.The Josh Smith era in Atlanta should be over, even if we could fit him under the cap. But it will definitely end if we add Paul and Howard

Edited May 12, 2013 by northcyde

[capstone21]

DatWerkk, you had some good post ........ ( in my Stephen. A Smith voice ) .... howeva ......There is NO POSSIBLE SCENARIO that Josh Smith can be re-signed if we add Howard and Paul to this team.If we renounce all of our free agents, and our guaranteed salaries and roster cap holds are 24.5 million, CP3 and D12 have to be signed FIRST, to fit them under the salary cap. And if both are maxed out and make 17 million in year 1, that's 34 million that they'll take up.23.5 million + 34 million = 57 million in cap space used.Josh is not playing for the MLE next year.The Josh Smith era in Atlanta should be over, even if we could fit him under the cap. But it will definitely end if we add Paul and Howard

...and I am good with that...Smith needs to be in a different uniform next year and we don't need him with that team. We need a guy who will defend and hit a few jumpers at that position with that team. We don't need another guy who needs the ball a lot. Chemistry wise it will cause problems. If we got Paul, Matt Barnes will probably follow him here and he can start at SF in a pinch Edited May 12, 2013 by capstone21