Al Horford for THREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[KB21]

The only shot that is better than a three point shot is one at the rim. The average FG% on shots at the rim is 64.6%. The eFG% on threes on average is 53.9%. The only shot in between that comes close to that is the 10-15 footer where the average FG% is 41.8%.

[Diesel]

Al must add a couple of post-up moves... a jump-hook and a little fade-away, or step-back jumper, that would make him more complete and difficult to guard (both for opposing 4 & 5).

P.S. In today's game, there are a lot of 4's who are able to shoot the 3-ball and stretch the floor (especially in Europe...), I wouldn't mind if Al develops that kind of range and add another offensive weapon.

Al has a midrange game but not a three point shot. He doesn't need one. IF we get a Dwight, Al would do better being high post and out of Dwight's way.

[Diesel]

I am saying the 3 point shot is a much better shot, period. There would have to be an awfully big discrepancy between one's ability to shoot the three point shot vs one's ability to shoot a long two to make the long two a better shot.Not only is the three point shot a better shot, there is also a better chance of getting an offensive rebound on a three point shot than there is on a long two.Josh's problem was never his three point shooting. It is his propensity to take long twos. If josh had limited his game to three point shots, drives to the basket, cuts without the ball to the basket, and post up shots, he would have been a much more efficient scorer and would have contributed more to winning than he currently has.Even with Durant, his eFG on long twos is 43%. His eFG on threes is 62.1%. So, yes. You want him taking more threes than long twos.

This is about as misguided as anything I have read from you.

You are just looking totally statistically. You are saying that Josh stop shooting the midrange shot and only shoot the three, he would be alright. However, it doesn't work that way. He would have stopped shooting the midrange shot and replaced it 1 for 1 for a three point shot. So now, instead of having that 209 3 pters at 30%, he would have had 450 3 pters at 30%.. maybe less. That sir doesn't make us better.

[Guest]

No, No and still No - I want my PF in the paint or as close to it as possible not further away.

If the 3 was something Al had in his arsenal (sim. to Dirk) - then fine. But I don't want him working on his game further from the basket, I want him bettering his game in the paint.

[Wretch]

I'm also a fan of big and bruising PFs. To be honest, I like the guys that don't hardly score at all...they just knock people's teeth out and swallow up rebounds. But Al's not a banger... He cleans up down low and shoots a bunch of jumpers (and he makes them), but he's not a dominant post guy. Sure, I'd like to see him work on his post moves, but I'm thinking the 3pt shot is something he can already do.

Side note: Interesting that people agree that he CAN shoot it, but don't want him shooting it...

[Guest]

I'm also a fan of big and bruising PFs. To be honest, I like the guys that don't hardly score at all...they just knock people's teeth out and swallow up rebounds. But Al's not a banger... He cleans up down low and shoots a bunch of jumpers (and he makes them), but he's not a dominant post guy. Sure, I'd like to see him work on his post moves, but I'm thinking the 3pt shot is something he can already do.

Side note: Interesting that people agree that he CAN shoot it, but don't want him shooting it..

People agree that he can shoot it because he said so. I haven't seen him do it? Have you? Anybody seen any tape of him launching 3's in practice? How many 3's has he taken in his career? At what %?

[KB21]

If Josh shifted 200 long twos to three point shots, he improves his eFG% from 48.9 to 51.5% and his PPS from 0.98 to 1.03

[Wretch]

Well, first, I'm not foolish enough to base my opinion on his ability based on something he (or anyone else) says.

Al Horford is not a dominant post player. He has no go to move in the post and no game off the dribble. He's a league leader in FG% and he's doing while a big chunk of his shots are coming from midrange. On his long 2's, he's shooting 42% and you wonder if he can stretch it further (which he says he can). Any footage of him shooting the long ball? Not really, because he chooses not to - which is another reason why I would be comfortable with it. Al is mature enought to know when and if he can take the shot. He wouldn't be Josh Smith 2.0, because he's on a whole other level from a maturity standpoint.

The other arguemnt is that the long 2 is the worst shot in the game. Maybe not those closer to 15', but certainly those going a little further out. It's probably a better idea to go for the extra point - unless you're Kevin Durant or Michael Jordan and a jumpshot is the same as a layup to you.

Like I said though, I wouldn't mind seeing him take 2 or 3 of these a game to gauge his effectiveness with it. I'm not at all suggesting we use him like a Korver or James Jones.

[Wretch]

Here's a play run for Al to do just what we're talking about (from the article):

I've watched this play a few times. I can't remember if it was at halftime or in the postgame interview, but one of the first times he hit that shot, he was asked to comment on it and basically said that he's comfortable out there, but he knows that's not what the team needs from him.

[phoostal]

I can't believe this up for discussion. No way Al should be shooting 3's. Any thought of him doing so should get him benched or the coach fired for letting him do so. We don't need him turning into Josh. We have seen that show and it isn't pretty.

[AHF]

This is about as misguided as anything I have read from you.

You are just looking totally statistically. You are saying that Josh stop shooting the midrange shot and only shoot the three, he would be alright. However, it doesn't work that way. He would have stopped shooting the midrange shot and replaced it 1 for 1 for a three point shot. So now, instead of having that 209 3 pters at 30%, he would have had 450 3 pters at 30%.. maybe less. That sir doesn't make us better.

Which is better?

A: 450 3's at 30%

or

B: 209 3's at 30% and 241 2's at 36%

Give me A every time and twice on Sundays.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Which is better?

A: 450 3's at 30%

or

B: 209 3's at 30% and 241 2's at 36%

Give me A every time and twice on Sundays.

The answer is C . . . none of the above.

Why in the world would any team want a guy taking 450 3s, if he only shot 30%. That's a recipe for suicide.

[AHF]

The answer is C . . . none of the above.

Why in the world would any team want a guy taking 450 3s, if he only shot 30%. That's a recipe for suicide.

Josh Smith's shot selection is a recipe for suicide. We all agree on that.

Generally, teams should strive for shots in the paints (dunks preferred) and 3's and a minimal amount of anything in between.

[KB21]

The answer is C . . . none of the above.

Why in the world would any team want a guy taking 450 3s, if he only shot 30%. That's a recipe for suicide.

It's better than having the player take 249 long two point shots when he only hits 33% of them. On one, he is averaging 0.9 PPS. On the other, he's averaging 0.66 PPS. So, even though he only shoots 30% from behind the arc, it is still a more efficient and productive shot than the 23 footers he takes at a 33% clip.

Ideally, Josh would be attacking the basket more. He shot 78% at the rim on 388 shots. I'd be curious to see what his foul rate on those shots was, because I would suspect that he draws more fouls when he attacks the basket, which would increase his overall FTA/FGA, thus increasing his efficiency.

Regardless, using Josh as a reason why Al shouldn't expand his range to beyond the arc was a poor example.

I would absolutely encourage him to take a step back on those 23 footers and shoot three pointers instead.

[NBASupes]

Al is basically Karl Malone analytically wise then you watch him and you see what Karl would have been with crap PG's and combo guards feeding him the rock.

Al biggest advantage to improving is us improving the PG position to a playmaker. His best plays were him and Josh High-low reads, his PnP with Jeff, and his posting up on smaller bigs. 72% of Al's shots were assisted. He is a movement specialist with excellent BBIQ. He is an excellent finisher, movement player, and has excellent BBIQ. His defense is very good as well. He is a very underrated NBA player.

[KB21]

Josh Smith's shot selection is a recipe for suicide. We all agree on that.

Generally, teams should strive for shots in the paints (dunks preferred) and 3's and a minimal amount of anything in between.

I agree. This is one reason why I hope Atlanta can hire SVG. In 2009-2010, and in 2010-2011, his team shot more three point shots than any other team and fewer 16-23 foot jumpers than any other team.

In that link where SVG was part of the committee at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference, SVG was talking about the mid range game being a lost art. He said someone mentioned to him that a certain player lacked a mid range shot, and his response was "Thank God!"

[NBASupes]

I agree. This is one reason why I hope Atlanta can hire SVG. In 2009-2010, and in 2010-2011, his team shot more three point shots than any other team and fewer 16-23 foot jumpers than any other team.

In that link where SVG was part of the committee at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference, SVG was talking about the mid range game being a lost art. He said someone mentioned to him that a certain player lacked a mid range shot, and his response was "Thank God!"

The mid range isn't effective in the NBA anymore because of length of defenders and how fast defenses close in. But guys who can attack the basket at will with great handles or ability usually can.

Westbrook, Kobe, Wade, Lebron, Steph Curry, CP3, Parker, and some others excel at the mid range. But someone like Korver can't because they just lack the athletic ability. Korver can shoot it without a doubt. The game is just longer and quicker than it used to be. Watch tape of the 80's and tape today and it's night and day in regards to defense.

[KB21]

For comparison, Larry Drew's offenses:

2010-2011 2nd most 16-23 footers, 16th most 3 point shots

2011-2012 9th most 16-23 footers, 10th most 3 point shots

2012-2013 15th most 16-23 footers, 5th most 3 point shots

The positive is that there was a good trend. The negative is that Larry didn't pay attention to the numbers and didn't discourage his team from shooting long twos.

It is no surprise the the Hawks had their most efficient offense this past year when they took more threes. I would surmise that if they could rank among the least long two shooting teams as far as attempts go, they could probably improve their eFG% by at least one standard deviation, which would likely increase the Hawks win total by 8 wins or so.

1 point of eFG% = 1.45 points of point differential = 2.54 wins

[KB21]

The mid range isn't effective in the NBA anymore because of length of defenders and how fast defenses close in. But guys who can attack the basket at will with great handles or ability usually can.

Westbrook, Kobe, Wade, Lebron, Steph Curry, CP3, Parker, and some others excel at the mid range. But someone like Korver can't because they just lack the athletic ability. Korver can shoot it without a doubt. The game is just longer and quicker than it used to be. Watch tape of the 80's and tape today and it's night and day in regards to defense.

I think Korver doesn't shoot from mid range because he is smart and knows the three point shot is a better shot.

[NBASupes]

I think Korver doesn't shoot from mid range because he is smart and knows the three point shot is a better shot.

Being closer to the basket is generally the smarter shot per-say but with the NBA defenses today, the mid-range is not a smart shot unless you are Russell Westbrook. Guys like Hornecek and Stockton made a living shooting mid range jumpers. Those guys would have to extent their range today much less in thought of imagining them guarding freaks like Westbrook or Rose.