Al Horford for THREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[NBASupes]

For comparison, Larry Drew's offenses:

2010-2011 2nd most 16-23 footers, 16th most 3 point shots

2011-2012 9th most 16-23 footers, 10th most 3 point shots

2012-2013 15th most 16-23 footers, 5th most 3 point shots

The positive is that there was a good trend. The negative is that Larry didn't pay attention to the numbers and didn't discourage his team from shooting long twos.

It is no surprise the the Hawks had their most efficient offense this past year when they took more threes. I would surmise that if they could rank among the least long two shooting teams as far as attempts go, they could probably improve their eFG% by at least one standard deviation, which would likely increase the Hawks win total by 8 wins or so.

1 point of eFG% = 1.45 points of point differential = 2.54 wins

They had better shooters this year but Joe could get any shot he wanted in Atlanta hence the reason why teams doubled him. No one on this team last year could get their shot at ease to cause a defense to double team.

[KB21]

Being closer to the basket is generally the smarter shot per-say but with the NBA defenses today, the mid-range is not a smart shot unless you are Russell Westbrook. Guys like Hornecek and Stockton made a living shooting mid range jumpers. Those guys would have to extent their range today much less in thought of imagining them guarding freaks like Westbrook or Rose.

I don't think the opposing defense has anything to do with it. If length causes problems on a 23 footer, then it causes problems on a 24 foot three point shot as well.

The reason the long two is a worse shot is because the break even point to equal the average three point percentage is 53%. You would have to hit the 16-23 foot jumper at 53% to equal the point production of a 35.5% three point shooter.

[NBASupes]

I don't think the opposing defense has anything to do with it. If length causes problems on a 23 footer, then it causes problems on a 24 foot three point shot as well.

The reason the long two is a worse shot is because the break even point to equal the average three point percentage is 53%. You would have to hit the 16-23 foot jumper at 53% to equal the point production of a 35.5% three point shooter.

Not really because of spacing. Look at these 80's clips:

I have plenty more with even less defense. They helps shooting jumpers much easier. Defense and length has been valued highly over the years especially after the Jordan era.

Of course, if you are a great three point shooter, it is best to take threes instead of twos. I agree.

[KB21]

http://hawkshoop.com/why-al-horford-should-start-shooting-3s/

This is a blog post detailing what is being discussed here. The part of this article I want to bring out is this.

Just to get the feel of what could have been, let’s imagine that Horford did take that step backwards. According to Basketball-Reference, Al took 146 twos that were within a step of the three-point line, which I defined as all the twos he took outside of 19 feet. If all of these shots were suddenly threes that Horford shot at the league average, Al would have scored 41 extra points on the season, enough to boost his season PPG average to 18 points.

and

While that may not seem like a lot, you have to consider other factors that would also change with this. If Horford is scoring more points than usual, he likely would have started taking more shots overall. Of course, a lot of his three-point attempts would likely be limited to pick-and-pop plays; think of the plays ran for Chris Bosh and Serge Ibaka, two other bigs who made strides in adding the three-pointer to their respective skill sets. However, because the NBA has started to respect Al’s shooting ability more than ever, adding the three would mean Horford could linger out by the perimeter and draw a defender. Because of floor spacing that would exist with Al being a three-point threat, Josh Smith is probably playing closer to the basket and taking less three-point attempts. (a win for everyone) And if you move Horford even further out of the lane, this would have left even more room for Jeff Teague and Devin Harris to attack the paint. If you have Horford sitting all the way in the corner, there’s a lot of room for a big man to try and cover if he is forced to help on an attacking guard in a pick-and-roll. The Hawks either get an open layup or an open corner three. This would have served the Hawks well, as the coaching staff had nicknamed corner threes “layups” this season.

We simply aren't talking about a player completely abandoning his mid range game. What I'm talking about, at least, is a player expanding his game and extending his range just a couple of feet from where he is already shooting. He takes 146 shot attempts that are between 19-23 feet. Why exactly is it a bad thing for him to eliminate that 19-23 foot range from his game and expand that range to 23+ feet?

[KB21]

What you would essentially be doing is taking away 61 made 19-23 foot shots and replacing them with 53 made three point shots if he just shoots average from behind the arc. Just a rough calculation tells me that Al would improve his eFG% from the already good 54.3% to an even better 56.1% as a shooter by taking 146 three point shots and hitting them at the league average rate.

How does this effect the team? Without anything else changing, Al Horford doing the above would improve the team's overall eFG% to 52%, an improvement of 0.3 percentage points. Using the formula that 1 point in eFG% = 1.45 points in point differential = 2.54 wins, Al Horford shooting 146 three point shots and hitting them at an average rate would have netting the Hawks 1 extra win on the season. That doesn't take into account the effect him shooting three point shots would have on spacing and possibly allowing the Hawks strongest two penetrating players in Jeff Teague and Josh Smith to utilize that skill more and get to the free throw line more often.

[Guest]

A bunch of what ifs and suppositions!! What if he shoots less than the league average?

[cam1218]

The answer is basically a no, but I wouldn't mind him shooting more threes (I'm guessing he only shoot two or so this year). Not a large increase by any means but if he could average maybe two three point shots a week it wouldn't be the worst thing. If he can slide out to the corner and shoot a couple of those he might make quite a few.

A lot of this depends on who we have on the court with him. If we need Al in the paint then he better not be stepping out. If he is roaming around the elbow, I could live with it.

Edited May 19, 2013 by cam1218

[Wretch]

The answer is basically a no, but I wouldn't mind him shooting more threes (I'm guessing he only shoot two or so this year). Not a large increase by any means but if he could average maybe two three point shots a week it wouldn't be the worst thing. If he can slide out to the corner and shoot a couple of those he might make quite a few.

A lot of this depends on who we have on the court with him. If we need Al in the paint then he better not be stepping out. If he is roaming around the elbow, I could live with it.

That's pretty much how I look at it (disagreeing on whether or not he should incorporate it). The only other thing I would add here is that Horf is a hustle guy and a movement guy. He's not ball dominant and his post game right now is unpolished at best. Given all that and the fact that he shoots quite a bit from midrange, we don't really depend upon him down low (even less so if we add such a player). So, I don't see how a shift in some of his long 2's to the 3 point line would seriously adversely affect him.

If he can shoot it, let him try. It only helps us space the floor. If he's not any good at it, then you can pretty much count on a player like Al to stay away from it.

[cam1218]

If he can shoot it, let him try. It only helps us space the floor. If he's not any good at it, then you can pretty much count on a player like Al to stay away from it.

And he can shoot it. He's made the shot in games before and I remember reading an article a couple years ago about him making a lot of threes in practice at a really high percentage, thirty in a row or something. You're right too on him staying away from it. Horford is a smart player, he isn't going to start hoisting up threes cause coach said you can shoot them if it's a good opportunity.

[AHawks89]

He can be our Chris Bosh as in how Chris Bosh is in Miami. Spacing, spacing, spacing but like I, and other have said, it all depends who we add to this off season. If we can add Dwight then I'm all for it.

[macdaddy]

[HawkItus]

I think he should model his offense to the current KG and Duncan. Al really should be mid-range shawty.

[Guest]

Al's a smart guy. Which is why I'm not worried that he'll start shooting 3's. He knows what his strengths are and he's going to stick with them.

[Gray Mule]

Should the opportunity arise, he is capable and should not hesitate.I don't want him hanging out @ the three nor do I expect him to betaking a lot of them.Yes, he should have this weapon in his arsenal and the occasional useof it would only enhance his value.GO HAWKS!!

[NBASupes]

I think he should model his offense to the current KG and Duncan. Al really should be mid-range shawty.

Al don't have the offensive skill to be KG or Duncan. The best he can be Malone which is basically is from a metrics standpoint. It's sad that his PnR with Josh Smith is more effective than with Jeff Teague. But Josh has the best court vision on the team by a mile so it's not a surprise, just sad.