Thoughts On Nikola Pekovic?

[MaceCase]

there is like a 97% chance the Twolves will keep pek. He can only get like 12 million salary max because of the gilbert arenas rule and that is a steal for him also they are trying to keep kevin love happy so they cant afford to lose a talent like him for nothing. So I would rule him out. Dont think we will go after Jefferson either since he sucks on defense and Bud wants us to be defensive.

I don't have a pocket CBA available like Fanatic but I'm pretty sure the Gil Arenas rule applies to 2nd rounders with only two years experience hence Asik and Lin last season. I'm pretty sure Pek has played 3 seasons though.

[NBASupes]

Nah . . . Horford isn't a great rebounder. He's good though. Maybe he'd be better playing alongside a true center, so that he can roam the floor grabbing boards at the PF spot.

If Horford could rebound like Larry Sanders, he may be a borderline superstar in this league. He'd be putting up Kevin Love type rebounding games on occasion, while still being one of the most offensively efficient PF/C in the game.

Top 10 in the last two years.

15.7 Total rebs% for the while out of position.

Has a highest offensive rebounding % than Malone.

Has a team pace of 92.6 which was his best in his team's career while Malone varied from 92-103 which is extremely fast run and gun basically.

While per 36, Sanders is a 12.5, his minutes is limited due to his major offensive limitations. You can take the good with the bad.

I am sorry but I really do not see anything wrong with Horford rebounding. He is a top ten rebounder in the NBA.

[Sothron]

I like Pek and he's helped me win two fantasy titles the last two seasons. I just can't justify paying him the max. He is a plus inside player, a plus rebounder and is ok defensively. The problem is he is somewhat injury prone and he has the leaping ability of Zaza. He doesn't really leave his feet and offers practically zero help side defense.

[NBASupes]

I like Pek and he's helped me win two fantasy titles the last two seasons. I just can't justify paying him the max. He is a plus inside player, a plus rebounder and is ok defensively. The problem is he is somewhat injury prone and he has the leaping ability of Zaza. He doesn't really leave his feet and offers practically zero help side defense.

Would be a great center next to Josh Smith.

[yungsta]

I don't have a pocket CBA available like Fanatic but I'm pretty sure the Gil Arenas rule applies to 2nd rounders with only two years experience hence Asik and Lin last season. I'm pretty sure Pek has played 3 seasons though.

my mistake I forgot about about the two years experience part.

[ATLien_]

We have got to stop thinking of rebounding in terms of height and the PF and C positions only. A rebound from a PG is just as valuable as one from a center.

Let’s use our playoff series against the Pacers for example. The Pacers dominated us on the boards; they averaged 36.5 DReb & 12.8 OReb per game for a total of 49.3 reb/gm. For the series, the Hawks averaged 30 DReb & 8.3 OReb per game for a total of 38.3 reb/gm. However looking at the by position rebounding numbers, you’ll notice the Hawks actually won the aggregate rebounding battle at the PF and C positions; we absolutely got slaughtered on the boards at the SG and SF positions.

Position

Hawks/Pacers

Hawks Reb/GM

Pacers Reb/GM

Delta

PG

Teauge/Hill

2.8

3.7

(0.9)

SG

Harris/George

2.8

9.5

(6.7)

SF

Korver/Stephenson

3.3

8

(4.7)

PF

Smith/West

7.5

5.8

1.7

C

Horford/Hibbert

8.8

8.8

0.0

Total

25.2

35.8

(10.6)

I would do some regression testing around rebounds for modern era championship caliber teams and find the rebounding sweet spot. For arguments sake let’s say you need to get on average 41 rebounds a game; knowing this build your team accordingly. It’s all about having the right mix of rebounders. If you have below average rebounding big men you need to get above average rebounding wing players. The goal would be to reach the rebounding sweet spot # more times than not. From a playoffs perspective I would try and build a team that can win the rebounding battle at least 4 out of 7 times in a playoff series.

Sorry for the long post.

[MaceCase]

Nice work. ATLien! This was my issue with past teams in that people kept wishing for some 7 footer to come in and magically fix all our issues even though we always had a 6'11" rebounder sitting on our bench. Al, Josh and even Marvin on occasion would be at the minimum average rebounders for their positions but then they were always offset by well below average rebounders in the backcourt in Joe, Jeffrey and Jamal. Awful especially once you considered their length, size and athleticism yet they were still non-factors in helping out our already over-taxed bigs.

[ATLien_]

We have got to stop thinking of rebounding in terms of height and the PF and C positions only. A rebound from a PG is just as valuable as one from a center.

Let’s use our playoff series against the Pacers for example. The Pacers dominated us on the boards; they averaged 36.5 DReb & 12.8 OReb per game for a total of 49.3 reb/gm. For the series, the Hawks averaged 30 DReb & 8.3 OReb per game for a total of 38.3 reb/gm. However looking at the by position rebounding numbers, you’ll notice the Hawks actually won the aggregate rebounding battle at the PF and C positions; we absolutely got slaughtered on the boards at the SG and SF positions.

Position Hawks/Pacers Hawks Reb/GM Pacers Reb/GM Delta

PG Teauge/Hill 2.8 3.7 (0.9)

SG Harris/George 2.8 9.5 (6.7)

SF Korver/Stephenson 3.3 8 (4.7)

PF Smith/West 7.5 5.8 1.7

C Horford/Hibbert 8.8 8.8 0.0

Total 25.2 35.8 (10.6)

I would do some regression testing around rebounds for modern era championship caliber teams and find the rebounding sweet spot. For arguments sake let’s say you need to get on average 41 rebounds a game; knowing this build your team accordingly. It’s all about having the right mix of rebounders. If you have below average rebounding big men you need to get above average rebounding wing players. The goal would be to reach the rebounding sweet spot # more times than not. From a playoffs perspective I would try and build a team that can win the rebounding battle at least 4 out of 7 times in a playoff series.

Sorry for the long post.

Admins please delete my duplicate post above. I tried to edit the format of the table, but took to long and lost permission to edit.

Thanks

Edited June 3, 2013 by ATLien_

[NBASupes]

Yeah but if you have elite rebounders like Dwight, it makes it easier for everyone else as well. Dwight might be one of the best rebounders of all time.

[KB21]

Stats are important but 1 important factor in the pick and roll statistic is how bad Utah's PGs were last season. There was once a time when Earl Watson was known as a good defender but that was long ago.

Favors is also better defender then Jefferson. He was probably the best defender on that Utah team. BTW, that Utah team had very little talent when it comes to defense outside of Favors. So it makes sense for the stats to be what they were.

Its just important to realize context when looking at raw team statistics.

The point guard has very little effect on allowing penetration and scoring opportunities when the defense is making a switch and having Al Jefferson come up and hedge the ball handler. That's all on Al. The guy is simply not a good defender, and the shots the he alters with his length doesn't make up for his inability to be a good positional defender overall.

If Utah's team was full of bad defenders and that was adversely effecting Al's defense, then there wouldn't be such a drastic difference in the points per 100 possessions given up when he's on the floor vs when he's off the floor. By just taking Al Jefferson off the floor, the Utah Jazz defense is 9 points per 100 possessions better. That's not a function of the players around him. That's a function of Al Jefferson stinking on defense.

[KB21]

ATLien, you just made a great case as to why Jamaal Franklin is likely going to be a target of the Hawks in the draft. He is the best rebounding wing player in the draft. As I detailed in my write up, Franklin is very similar from a production standpoint to San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard, who is their defending/rebounding/corner three point shooting small forward.

[Buzzard]

The point guard has very little effect on allowing penetration and scoring opportunities when the defense is making a switch and having Al Jefferson come up and hedge the ball handler. That's all on Al. The guy is simply not a good defender, and the shots the he alters with his length doesn't make up for his inability to be a good positional defender overall.

If Utah's team was full of bad defenders and that was adversely effecting Al's defense, then there wouldn't be such a drastic difference in the points per 100 possessions given up when he's on the floor vs when he's off the floor. By just taking Al Jefferson off the floor, the Utah Jazz defense is 9 points per 100 possessions better. That's not a function of the players around him. That's a function of Al Jefferson stinking on defense.

Whats the function of Jeffersons plus/minus being part of Utahs five out of seven best starting units, including the top two?

http://www.82games.com/1112/1112UTA2.HTM

[coachx]

The point guard has very little effect on allowing penetration and scoring opportunities when the defense is making a switch and having Al Jefferson come up and hedge the ball handler. That's all on Al. The guy is simply not a good defender, and the shots the he alters with his length doesn't make up for his inability to be a good positional defender overall.

If Utah's team was full of bad defenders and that was adversely effecting Al's defense, then there wouldn't be such a drastic difference in the points per 100 possessions given up when he's on the floor vs when he's off the floor. By just taking Al Jefferson off the floor, the Utah Jazz defense is 9 points per 100 possessions better. That's not a function of the players around him. That's a function of Al Jefferson stinking on defense.

When you have Hibbert, Jefferson, or Pekovic the C should not be making the switch. The Pacers depend on George Hill to go over or under the screen.....not on Hibbert to defend a guard on the perimeter by switching.

I agree Jefferson's weakness is perimeter defense and really defense in general.

I have to question the data accuracy of the source of your sources's information / Synergysports.

For example according to the synergy:

In pick and rolls both Pekovic, Hickson, and Jefferson only switched out on the guard the ball handler 4 times each all season. That is quite a small sample size they are pulling from.......and don't believe that is even accurate.

Also, according to synergy when defending the "roll man", in the pick and roll, Jefferson gave up .94 points per possesion while Pekovic gave up .91. So they both suck at that. Hickson gave up .8 ppp when defending the roll man according to this source.

As far as total defense goes they have Jefferson giving up a .9 PPP (#279 in the league) and Pekovic giving up .83 ppp (ranked 107 in the league). They have Splitter giving up .91 ppp (#72 in the league). They have JJ Hickson giving up .94 ppp (ranked 365 in the league). Hickson actually held opponents to a decent FG%......so my only explanation as to why he gave up more ppp is b/c he was forced to foul more then Jefferson or Pekovic due to being undersized in the paint playing Center at 6'9''. How much would these stats change for Hickson if he could play PF ?

If these stats are accurate they definately scare me away from Jefferson .....and also Hickson if you plan on him playing heavy minutes at C . However, its hard to take these stats as fact when they say Jefferson, Hickson, and Pekovic only switched to defend the ball handler, in pick & rolls, 4 times each all season long. They have Splitter making the switch to defend a ball handler 7 times all season. According to Synergy Horford only made the switch to defend the guard 12 times all year. Now I assume they are only counting the times when the guard attempted a shot, after the switch, but that data still seems too low.

I would put a lot more stock into synergy's statistic if I knew they were accurate.

Edited June 4, 2013 by coachx

[KB21]

When you have Hibbert, Jefferson, or Pekovic the C should not be making the switch. The Pacers depend on George Hill to go over or under the screen.....not on Hibbert to defend a guard on the perimeter by switching.

I agree Jefferson's weakness is perimeter defense and really defense in general.

I have to question the data accuracy of the source of your sources's information / Synergysports.

For example according to the synergy:

In pick and rolls both Pekovic, Hickson, and Jefferson only switched out on the guard the ball handler 4 times each all season. That is quite a small sample size they are pulling from.......and don't believe that is even accurate.

Also, according to synergy when defending the "roll man", in the pick and roll, Jefferson gave up .94 points per possesion while Pekovic gave up .91. So they both suck at that. Hickson gave up .8 ppp when defending the roll man according to this source.

As far as total defense goes they have Jefferson giving up a .9 PPP (#279 in the league) and Pekovic giving up .83 ppp (ranked 107 in the league). They have Splitter giving up .91 ppp (#72 in the league). They have JJ Hickson giving up .94 ppp (ranked 365 in the league). Hickson actually held opponents to a decent FG%......so my only explanation as to why he gave up more ppp is b/c he was forced to foul more then Jefferson or Pekovic due to being undersized in the paint playing Center at 6'9''. How much would these stats change for Hickson if he could play PF ?

If these stats are accurate they definately scare me away from Jefferson .....and also Hickson if you plan on him playing heavy minutes at C . However, its hard to take these stats as fact when they say Jefferson, Hickson, and Pekovic only switched to defend the ball handler, in pick & rolls, 4 times each all season long. They have Splitter making the switch to defend a ball handler 7 times all season. According to Synergy Horford only made the switch to defend the guard 12 times all year. Now I assume they are only counting the times when the guard attempted a shot, after the switch, but that data still seems too low.

I would put a lot more stock into synergy's statistic if I knew they were accurate.

Essentially, what you do by signing Al Jefferson is you sacrifice your overall defensive performance in hopes that his high usage/low efficiency scoring will help offset it.

Personally, I'm a big believer that it is better to have 6-7 low usage, high efficiency scorers than have that one high usage, medium to low efficiency scorer. I also think you will get better ball movement, and with that comes higher efficiency.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

We have got to stop thinking of rebounding in terms of height and the PF and C positions only. A rebound from a PG is just as valuable as one from a center.

Let’s use our playoff series against the Pacers for example. The Pacers dominated us on the boards; they averaged 36.5 DReb & 12.8 OReb per game for a total of 49.3 reb/gm. For the series, the Hawks averaged 30 DReb & 8.3 OReb per game for a total of 38.3 reb/gm. However looking at the by position rebounding numbers, you’ll notice the Hawks actually won the aggregate rebounding battle at the PF and C positions; we absolutely got slaughtered on the boards at the SG and SF positions.

Position Hawks/Pacers Hawks Reb/GM Pacers Reb/GM Delta

PG Teauge/Hill 2.8 3.7 (0.9)

SG Harris/George 2.8 9.5 (6.7)

SF Korver/Stephenson 3.3 8 (4.7)

PF Smith/West 7.5 5.8 1.7

C Horford/Hibbert 8.8 8.8 0.0

Total 25.2 35.8 (10.6)

I would do some regression testing around rebounds for modern era championship caliber teams and find the rebounding sweet spot. For arguments sake let’s say you need to get on average 41 rebounds a game; knowing this build your team accordingly. It’s all about having the right mix of rebounders. If you have below average rebounding big men you need to get above average rebounding wing players. The goal would be to reach the rebounding sweet spot # more times than not. From a playoffs perspective I would try and build a team that can win the rebounding battle at least 4 out of 7 times in a playoff series.

Sorry for the long post.

Admins please delete my duplicate post above. I tried to edit the format of the table, but took to long and lost permission to edit.

Thanks

LOL @ trying to make Korver not look worse than what he was.

Stephenson is the SG . .. George is the SF.

It was Korver who got DESTROYED in every facet of the game in that playoff series, outside of the one game in which he made some shots.