All you tankers should be ashamed of yourselves

[AHF]

Miami Heat - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dwayne Wade; Wade attracted Lebron which led to more titles

San Antonio - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Tim Duncan; 4 titles

Boston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Paul Pierce; 1 title

LA - Drafted (if we trade for a pick before he ever sets foot on the court that counts for me - anyway to get that stud) NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant; multiple titles

Dallas - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dirk Nowitzki; 1 title

Bulls - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Michael Jordan; 6 titles

Houston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Hakeem Olajuwon; 2 titles

Detroit - Didn't draft their finals MVP - the exception!

That covers us from 2013 through 1990. Soooo let's just say I think we need to have that draft cornerstone.

The alternative that has been successful is signing the superstar free agent.

Miami - Signed Lebron with an NBA Finals MVP already on the roster; is Lebron coming through that door? Please don't think about it unless we get our superstar to entice him.

LA - Signed Shaq. Think we are going to get the next UFA like Shaq? Really? Cause that isn't the plan I am banking on.

We've been through this in more detail plenty of times. I don't think that there is a path that gives a reasonable % shot at a championship without a superstar. The Pistons are the very low % exception. Since I think that, I look at how can we get that player?

FA? Not going to happen.

Trades? Not going to happen without lottery assets to trade.

Draft? Our chances are as good as anyone else.

Does getting in the lottery mean you have some free pass to a championship? Of course not. But all these champs drafted their superstars in the top 10 other than the LA Lakers. We don't have someone capable of winning an NBA Finals MVP right now, IMO.

Feel free to disagree with me but please don't misconstrue my position. I don't think the draft is a magic championship button. I do think we need a superstar and I think the draft represents the best possibility of landing that player.

So the 40%/20% odds I gave earlier are obviously arbitrary numbers not there for the literal percentage but to make the point that you should be attacking the most promising area of opportunity to land that superstar even if it isn't a "slam dunk" or "free pass" to contender status. There isn't any team building platform that isn't littered with failed attempts. However, I see that cornerstone player in the draft as a common feature of the vast majority of NBA champions.

[Guest]

Miami Heat - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dwayne Wade; Wade attracted Lebron which led to more titles

San Antonio - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Tim Duncan; 4 titles

Boston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Paul Pierce; 1 title

LA - Drafted (if we trade for a pick before he ever sets foot on the court that counts for me - anyway to get that stud) NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant; multiple titles

Dallas - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dirk Nowitzki; 1 title

Bulls - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Michael Jordan; 6 titles

Houston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Hakeem Olajuwon; 2 titles

Detroit - Didn't draft their finals MVP - the exception!

That covers us from 2013 through 1990. Soooo let's just say I think we need to have that draft cornerstone.

The alternative that has been successful is signing the superstar free agent.

Miami - Signed Lebron with an NBA Finals MVP already on the roster; is Lebron coming through that door? Please don't think about it unless we get our superstar to entice him.

LA - Signed Shaq. Think we are going to get the next UFA like Shaq? Really? Cause that isn't the plan I am banking on.

We've been through this in more detail plenty of times. I don't think that there is a path that gives a reasonable % shot at a championship without a superstar. The Pistons are the very low % exception. Since I think that, I look at how can we get that player?

FA? Not going to happen.

Trades? Not going to happen without lottery assets to trade.

Draft? Our chances are as good as anyone else.

Does getting in the lottery mean you have some free pass to a championship? Of course not. But all these champs drafted their superstars in the top 10 other than the LA Lakers. We don't have someone capable of winning an NBA Finals MVP right now, IMO.

Feel free to disagree with me but please don't misconstrue my position. I don't think the draft is a magic championship button. I do think we need a superstar and I think the draft represents the best possibility of landing that player.

So the 40%/20% odds I gave earlier are obviously arbitrary numbers not there for the literal percentage but to make the point that you should be attacking the most promising area of opportunity to land that superstar even if it isn't a "slam dunk" or "free pass" to contender status. There isn't any team building platform that isn't littered with failed attempts. However, I see that cornerstone player in the draft as a common feature of the vast majority of NBA champions.

@AHF Good info - how many years in the league before each of those players won their first Championship?

[Buzzard]

Miami Heat - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dwayne Wade; Wade attracted Lebron which led to more titles

San Antonio - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Tim Duncan; 4 titles

Boston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Paul Pierce; 1 title

LA - Drafted (if we trade for a pick before he ever sets foot on the court that counts for me - anyway to get that stud) NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant; multiple titles

Dallas - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dirk Nowitzki; 1 title

Bulls - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Michael Jordan; 6 titles

Houston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Hakeem Olajuwon; 2 titles

Detroit - Didn't draft their finals MVP - the exception!

FA? Not going to happen.

Trades? Not going to happen without lottery assets to trade.

Draft? Our chances are as good as anyone else.

Does getting in the lottery mean you have some free pass to a championship? Of course not. But all these champs drafted their superstars in the top 10 other than the LA Lakers. We don't have someone capable of winning an NBA Finals MVP right now, IMO.

Feel free to disagree with me but please don't misconstrue my position. I don't think the draft is a magic championship button. I do think we need a superstar and I think the draft represents the best possibility of landing that player.

So the 40%/20% odds I gave earlier are obviously arbitrary numbers not there for the literal percentage but to make the point that you should be attacking the most promising area of opportunity to land that superstar even if it isn't a "slam dunk" or "free pass" to contender status. There isn't any team building platform that isn't littered with failed attempts. However, I see that cornerstone player in the draft as a common feature of the vast majority of NBA champions.

I get most of this but don't quite agree with all of it. Kobe, 13th pick, was acquired for Vlade. Pierce was the 10th. A 10 and a 13 do not cost you near as dearly as trying to trade for a top 5. Its also something to note that Shaq was possibly the best player on Kobe's team and Wade's. Bron the best on Wade's team now. Then you have Detroit.

By my count that is three championship teams that were built with picks starting at 10, 13, and no spectacular picks for Detroit. Is it really that far off the beaten path to think a 15 could do that one day? Hibbert was a 15.

I agree 100% you have to draft well. I believe you have to trade well. And you need to be prepared to fit anything, free agents and trades, that may drop in your lap within your cap limits.

Edited May 22, 2014 by Buzzard

[Plainview1981]

I actually remember that vividly and is a huge part of my recollection of the Hawks recent era: the crowd buzzing, the JJ step back three, the chants against Boston. I would much rather have those memories than tanking and hoping we get lucky.

Maybe the media doesn't care anymore but as a Hawks fan I still care a lot. It was great seeing the buzz in this city.

C'mon.... You know that I'm not talking about the people here. =)

[Eddielives]

First off, why would we assume the lottery is rigged?(please spare me any conspiracy theories). I know it's hard for some to believe but you can be a hawks fan that simultaneously hoped for a lottery chance and also hoped for us to advance and shock some people in the playoffs. All this what if and assume this and hypothetical speculation is just nonsense. All we can do is judge what is the best direction to better the team based on what has happened and what is most likely to produce a scenario where our team's chances of winning a championship are better. We don't have a history of landing the big free agents that matter but I still think we can try and must keep trying, especially since I think we are better coached now. So the fact is for us to become a contender, we probably would be in better shape having some luck like Cleveland is this year. Imagine the buzz of us drafting #1 in this draft. We would be bringing in the most exciting blue chip prospect in this franchise's history. Based on this teams free agent history, I think it's logical to believe that our best chance for drastic improvement is to get a blue chip prospect while we have a good coach and a good core to build around. But at 15, we'll have to live off the buzz of a first round exit and hope for the best with pretty much what we have....AGAIN!

[Wretch]

Miami Heat - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dwayne Wade; Wade attracted Lebron which led to more titles

San Antonio - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Tim Duncan; 4 titles

Boston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Paul Pierce; 1 title

LA - Drafted (if we trade for a pick before he ever sets foot on the court that counts for me - anyway to get that stud) NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant; multiple titles

Dallas - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Dirk Nowitzki; 1 title

Bulls - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Michael Jordan; 6 titles

Houston - Drafted NBA Finals MVP Hakeem Olajuwon; 2 titles

Detroit - Didn't draft their finals MVP - the exception!

That covers us from 2013 through 1990. Soooo let's just say I think we need to have that draft cornerstone.

The alternative that has been successful is signing the superstar free agent.

Miami - Signed Lebron with an NBA Finals MVP already on the roster; is Lebron coming through that door? Please don't think about it unless we get our superstar to entice him.

LA - Signed Shaq. Think we are going to get the next UFA like Shaq? Really? Cause that isn't the plan I am banking on.

We've been through this in more detail plenty of times. I don't think that there is a path that gives a reasonable % shot at a championship without a superstar. The Pistons are the very low % exception. Since I think that, I look at how can we get that player?

FA? Not going to happen.

Trades? Not going to happen without lottery assets to trade.

Draft? Our chances are as good as anyone else.

Does getting in the lottery mean you have some free pass to a championship? Of course not. But all these champs drafted their superstars in the top 10 other than the LA Lakers. We don't have someone capable of winning an NBA Finals MVP right now, IMO.

Feel free to disagree with me but please don't misconstrue my position. I don't think the draft is a magic championship button. I do think we need a superstar and I think the draft represents the best possibility of landing that player.

So the 40%/20% odds I gave earlier are obviously arbitrary numbers not there for the literal percentage but to make the point that you should be attacking the most promising area of opportunity to land that superstar even if it isn't a "slam dunk" or "free pass" to contender status. There isn't any team building platform that isn't littered with failed attempts. However, I see that cornerstone player in the draft as a common feature of the vast majority of NBA champions.

You can extend this to the Conference Finals teams as well (for the people who harp on "championships" won). Very few contenders build the core of their teams without the use of picks 1-14. Which will also include the current Atlanta Hawks team should we get there...considering we actually WON the lottery and drafted Al Horford.

[BrazilianHawk]

First off, why would we assume the lottery is rigged?(please spare me any conspiracy theories). I know it's hard for some to believe but you can be a hawks fan that simultaneously hoped for a lottery chance and also hoped for us to advance and shock some people in the playoffs. All this what if and assume this and hypothetical speculation is just nonsense. All we can do is judge what is the best direction to better the team based on what has happened and what is most likely to produce a scenario where our team's chances of winning a championship are better. We don't have a history of landing the big free agents that matter but I still think we can try and must keep trying, especially since I think we are better coached now. So the fact is for us to become a contender, we probably would be in better shape having some luck like Cleveland is this year. Imagine the buzz of us drafting #1 in this draft. We would be bringing in the most exciting blue chip prospect in this franchise's history. Based on this teams free agent history, I think it's logical to believe that our best chance for drastic improvement is to get a blue chip prospect while we have a good coach and a good core to build around. But at 15, we'll have to live off the buzz of a first round exit and hope for the best with pretty much what we have....AGAIN!

LOL like the Hawks had an impecable draft record.

Spare me of this nonsense;

[MaceCase]

@AHF Good info - how many years in the league before each of those players won their first Championship?

Wade was in his 3rd year.

Duncan in his 2nd year.

Pierce in his 10th year.

Kobe in his 4th year but he did not earn Finals MVP until his 13th year.

Dirk in his 13th year.

Jordan in his 7th year.

(H)Akeem in his 10th year.

[AHF]

Wade was in his 3rd year.

Duncan in his 2nd year.

Pierce in his 10th year.

Kobe in his 4th year but he did not earn Finals MVP until his 13th year.

Dirk in his 13th year.

Jordan in his 7th year.

(H)Akeem in his 10th year.

Very few championships have been won with MVP type players in their first year.

NBA Finals MVP Magic Johnson as a rookie stands out (drafted by the Lakers #1)

I could continue this back farther but I don't think it is as useful to look back much farther because without free agency you of course saw most of your studs drafted.

I don't care if we earn that key lottery pick by bad record or by trade. Vlade Divac was a one-time All-Star who got a late lottery pick in Kobe (although I will note that Kobe was one of the first high school players before the league had fully embraced that avenue and so would never go that late in a draft today). If we flip one-time All-Star Paul Millsap for a star like that then that works for me. I just don't think we are going to be able to get ousted in the first and second round of the playoffs and rely on our mid-round picks and free agency to vault us into contender status. There have been some very good players whose teams acquired them through the draft via trade or otherwise and I would love to fleece someone like that if we can: think Kobe, Magic, Kyrie, etc.

I just think that our best player now - Al Horford - is closer to Horace Grant than he is to Michael Jordan so I don't see that NBA Finals MVP on our team or that free agent lure that will get us the next Shaq, Lebron, or other franchise changing FA.

[Guest]

I could continue this back farther but I don't think it is as useful to look back much farther because without free agency you of course saw most of your studs drafted.

Whoa. It's like I am looking in the mirror right now!

[AHF]

Whoa. It's like I am looking in the mirror right now!

Dude, I think I see myself!

I've never disagreed with you on this. The area we disagree on is where to draw the line.

Definitely credit to you for highlighting that issue when looking at the historical names.

The last 20+ years still tells the same story to me. Get yourself a cornerstone in the draft who can be good enough to be your Finals MVP. You can then build around that cornerstone.

[HawkItus]

Dude, I think I see myself!

I've never disagreed with you on this. The area we disagree on is where to draw the line.

Definitely credit to you for highlighting that issue when looking at the historical names.

The last 20+ years still tells the same story to me. Get yourself a cornerstone in the draft who can be good enough to be your Finals MVP. You can then build around that cornerstone.

But, that narrative is not correct. Just look at the names. You have to get that guy. Not one of the guys, that particular guy. Lebron, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Jordan, Hakeem(but, with Jordan out the league). Its not like getting a great player does it through the draft. You have to hit on that one. This is much harder than in FA knowing that one and making your best swing at them. To put it more bluntly, had we have had the luck of choosing Clyde Drexler, Barkley, Kevin Durant, any other none Heat or Spurs player, we would most likely still be a 2nd round team. Look at the Clippers.

[AHF]

But, that narrative is not correct. Just look at the names. You have to get that guy. Not one of the guys, that particular guy. Lebron, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Jordan, Hakeem(but, with Jordan out the league). Its not like getting a great player does it through the draft. You have to hit on that one. This is much harder than in FA knowing that one and making your best swing at them. To put it more bluntly, had we have had the luck of choosing Clyde Drexler, Barkley, Kevin Durant, any other none Heat or Spurs player, we would most likely still be a 2nd round team. Look at the Clippers.

The problem with your free agent channel is that those players very rarely are available in FA and have never been in available to the Hawks. They are available to everyone in the draft. Again, it doesn't mean you are guaranteed a superstar just for drafting high but you can bet that the Hawks won't get one unless they are drafting high. Who is the one superstar that has played in Atlanta? Nique - who we acquired via the draft (pick acquired by trade).

I also disagree that we would be a second round team in the Eastern conference with guys like in their prime Charles Barkley and Kevin Durant. Those guys made repeated appearances in the conference finals for a reason. Barkley made the NBA finals with the Suns and made the Conference Finals with the Sixers, Suns and Rockets (i.e., every team he ever played for). Durant has made the conference finals 3 of the last 4 years, including one trip to the NBA finals. It doesn't mean we would be there every year but the idea that we would not have made it in 40 years with players like that is something I can't buy into.

Kevin Durant will be a free agent in 2016. What are the chances that he joins the Hawks if they don't have a stud who is high enough profile to make others want to come play with him? If those odds are greater than zero, then I will be thrilled we have even an academic chance. If they are greater than 1%, I will be shocked. Players like that tend to go one of three ways: (1) stay with their current team; (2) go to a big market; or (3) sign on to play with other stars. If we don't draft those players we will neither be the current team nor will we be a big market. The idea of Lebron opting out to come play in Atlanta this offseason is beyond laughable. If we had a young Dwyane Wade, then we could talk.

[Eddielives]

LOL like the Hawks had an impecable draft record.

Spare me of this nonsense;

Where did I say the hawks have a great history of drafting and what logic are you using to assume because we have had gm's who drafted poorly in the past that we will continue to do the same? Come on mann, think before you type.

[AUhawksfan]

I was originally in the tank bandwagon but that was when I thought we'd perform like the hawks of old and be embarrassed and blown out certain games. After watching the series I've changed my mind.

For me, a first round exit that showed on a national stage what we can do and our potential. That might interest potential free agents. Playoff games also mean more money which will hopefully mean more willingness to spend for ownership, once again something that might get free agents.

I'd rather have those results than just a "hope" that we get the right pick in the draft. I trust that Danny will still get us an impact player in the draft while at the same time having made a bit of a statement in the playoffs early on. To me that's a win/win.

[AHF]

Best case to grab a star for me would be a trade like the Dennis for #8 one discussed and then hope someone is available ala Paul Pierce (expected to go #3, fell to #10) slipping, etc.

[Guest]

Ok, I've seen a some Hawksperts talk about the top 8 as can't miss franchise changers - is that really true? (I don't know squat about about this crop of draftees) .

What is the % of players drafted in the top 8 in the last 8 years that are franchise changing building blocks? 2004 was a draft for the ages with LBJ, Wade etc - is this draft close to that?

[AHF]

Ok, I've seen a some Hawksperts talk about the top 8 as can't miss franchise changers - is that really true? (I don't know squat about about this crop of draftees) .

What is the % of players drafted in the top 8 in the last 8 years that are franchise changing building blocks? 2004 was a draft for the ages with LBJ, Wade etc - is this draft close to that?

No one has talked about the top 8 as can't miss franchise changers to my knowledge. Every year has high drafted busts. Heck, the #2 pick in 2004 was Darko Milicic.

The last two All-NBA teams breakdown like this:

2012-13

First Team:

#1 overall, #1 overall, #2 overall, #4 overall, #13 overall

Second Team:

#1 overall, #3 overall, #3 overall, #28 overall, #48 overall

Third Team:

#1 overall, #3 overall, #5 overall, #10 overall, #30 overall

4 #1 picks (27%); 10 top 5 picks (67%); 13 lottery picks (87%); 1 first round pick outside the lottery (7%); 1 second round pick (7%)

2011-12

First Team:

#1, #1, #2, #4, #13

Second Team:

#1, #3, #5, #10, #28

Third Team:

#2, #3, #5, #9, #21

3 #1 picks (20%); 10 top 5 picks (67%); 13 lottery picks (87%); 2 first round pick outside the lottery (13%); 0 second round picks (0%)

2010-11

First Team:

#1, #1, #1, #2, #13

Second Team:

#3, #3, #5, #9, #9

Third Team:

#2, #3, #4, #19, #57

3 #1 picks (20%); 10 top 5 picks (67%); 13 lottery picks (87%); 1 first round pick outside the lottery (7%); 1 second round pick (7%)

THREE YEAR CONSOLIDATED NUMBERS:

First Team: 80% Top 5 Picks; 100% Lottery Picks

Second Team: 60% Top 5 Picks; 80% Lottery Picks

Third Team: 60% Top 5 Picks; 73% Lottery Picks

Overall:

22% #1 Overall Picks

67% Top 5 Overall Picks

87% Lottery Picks

7% First Round Picks Outside The Lottery

3% Second Round Picks

[Buzzard]

First Team:

#1 overall, #1 overall, #2 overall, #4 overall, #13 overall

Second Team:

#1 overall, #3 overall, #3 overall, #28 overall, #48 overall

Third Team:

#1 overall, #3 overall, #5 overall, #10 overall, #30 overall

4 #1 picks (27%); 10 top 5 picks (67%); 13 lottery picks (87%); 1 first round pick outside the lottery (7%); 1 second round pick (7%)

I am missing something here. I see 3 picks outside the lottery at 28, 30, and 48. Which is two 1st round picks 28 and 30 and one 2nd round pick 48.

[Guest]

@AHF that skirts the issue of how they were acquired. Which should be more of a focus.

It is no surprise that the best players in the NBA were drafted early.

(thinking off the top of my head, I bet someone could even show a statistic that >50% of top 10 draft picks leave the team that drafted them...So if they are going to leave why draft them? clearly a lame argument but that is my sentiment on showing draft position of All-NBA)