Still time for Teague to turn his whole career around and breakout....

[AHF]

Now let's look at assists.

 

Teague had an average variance month-to-month last season (again excluding October) of 18.4% variance from his season average.

 

Since people keep comparing him to Paul on this thread since Paul had a game where he went scoreless, let's look at Paul's variance.  Paul's variance was less than half of that:  8.1%.

 

Why are we even bringing guys like Sap and Paul up in comparison to Teague?  He can only look negative by comparison and thus bring "haters" out of the woodworks.

 

Teague has been a high variance guy both in his actual numbers and his intensity for his career.  He needs to improve that for our team to reach its potential.  It is desired of him and not asked of guys like John Jenkins, Dennis Schröder, etc. is because he has shown us he can be that player and he is mature enough to make the leap, IMO.

 

Further, I hate Teague so much that I believe he is the greatest opportunity for improvement in this team.  If Horford or Millsap gets significantly more consistent next season it won't have much impact on our record.  If Teague does it, however, I think it could be a big bump in our wins.  

 

Call that "hate" if you want, but I am rooting for anyway and I'll accept a hater label for hoping that our biggest opportunity for improvement comes through.

[AHF]

Just for clarification on methodology, variance is simply calculated by looking at the degree to which a monthly average varied from the season average and then averaging the absolute values of those variances.

 

Example:  A two month sample with a total average of .500% where a player shot .443% and .555% each month means an average variance of .056%.   (.057% + .055% / 2 = .056%)  Another player with a .500% total average who shot .502% and .498% has an average variance of .002%.

[JTB]

Teague hate starting early I see.

Personally I don't think anyone is hating but I can only speak for myself. Teague is actually my favorite hawk and that may be because I see star potential in him.....yup I said it "star potential"....the thing is, is that I'm not looking for him to drop a shit load of points to become this but to just be the most impact full player on the court like we have seen him do in his good games this season.

Teagues aggressiveness mixed with elite speed is hands down top 10 pg in the nba.... I just want to see him use it the whole season!

Teague is like that kid in high school that can sang his ass off in a classroom but shy away sometimes on the big stage. When Teague puts it all together and dominate I can see top free agents wanting to play with him over sap and horford.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I'm not sure who declared that all the Teague inconsistency issues would go away if he played 7 good games against George Hill but I've been very consistent about expecting Teague to bring it for a season, not for a few games.

 

On Kemba Walker - I agree Teague is better.  Walker is a clearly below average PG in the league right now (i.e., there are 15 PGs you have to put ahead of him if you are ranking them).  Walker is even more of a shoot-first combo guard than Teague as well.  I would definitely not trade Teague for him.

 

On the hate, it only sounds like hate because people are blowing smoke up his rear.  He is as consistent as Paul Millsap?  Really?

 

There are three main areas of inconsistency for Teague:

 

(1)  Aggression (not subject to looking at the numbers);

(2)  Defense (not well quantified statistically); and

(3)  Scoring efficiency (easily quantifiable).

 

Let's take a look at the scoring efficiency since this is the most easily review.  

 

Here is consistency from year to year:

Jeff Teague

2011-12 EFG%  .514%

2012-13 EFG%  .496%

2013-14 EFG%  .474%

 

Paul Millsap

2011-12 EFG%  .499%

2012-13 EFG%  .498%

2013-14 EFG%  .498%

 

Any rationale human being can see that one of these is consistent like a metronome (Sap) and the other is not close to the same level of consistency.

 

The good news for him?  He has significantly improved his FT% over that time and last year took a big increase in FTA/M.  That has kept his TS% closer year over year than his shooting from the floor.

 

So let's look at last year.

 

I'm going to use TS% because it is listed on basketballreference's split page and I will exclude October since there is only a 1 game sample size:

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/teaguje01/splits/2014/

 

Teague:  

.502%

.542%

.468%

.541% 

.562%

.662%

That is an average variance of .043% per month and a variance of .198% between his high and low months.

 

Sap had an average variance of .026% per month and a variance of .078% between his high and low months.

 

Again, Sap demonstrated much greater consistency both month to month - much like he does year to year.

Was it just a coincidence that both Teague and Millsap had their low TS% month in January, when the schedule got significantly tougher and when both were adjusting to the loss of Horford?

Teague essentially had one bad month and one great month, and is getting ripped for being inconsistent. Ironically, take away the one great month, and see him be around his normal .540 TS%, and his variances would be a lot closer to Millsap's. But because he played great in April, that skews his variances.

It took me 3 years to come around on Teague, but I've accepted what he is. His jumper will never be good enough to be the type of player to take over a game. But he's a solid enough PG to lead a team. If the talent around him was a little better, maybe he might be too.

On that great dunk that Mike Scott had in the playoffs, people overlooked the perfect bounce pass delivered by Teague on that play.

Too bad we didn't have this level of Teague at PG during the WLOC era.

[AHF]

Sap's largest variance in any month was almost identical to Teague's average variance (.047 to .043). Please stop comparing them. They are not comparable month to month or year to year. Taking out 1/3 of greatest variance from Teague's season and then saying the most consistent 2/3 is closer is silly. Duh. You take a guy with high variations take out his biggest outliers that are a product of his inconsistency and then pretend like that represents who he is doesn't work. His assist variance is huge compared to a guy like Paul. His scoring efficiency variance is huge compared to a guy like Paul. No surprise - those two guys are very consistent. Let's acknowledge they aren't remotely comparable on this and move forward.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Sap's largest variance in any month was almost identical to Teague's average variance (.047 to .043). Please stop comparing them. They are not comparable month to month or year to year. Taking out 1/3 of greatest variance from Teague's season and then saying the most consistent 2/3 is closer is silly. Duh. You take a guy with high variations take out his biggest outliers that are a product of his inconsistency and then pretend like that represents who he is doesn't work. His assist variance is huge compared to a guy like Paul. His scoring efficiency variance is huge compared to a guy like Paul. No surprise - those two guys are very consistent. Let's acknowledge they aren't remotely comparable on this and move forward.

 

No . . what's silly is looking at an April performance, where he plays well above his head, and use that to show how inconsistent he is.   Then you're comparing him to a guy who will be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer, and has 2 of the best finishing big men in the game . . . with Teague not having the big man that used to knock down jumpers off of the pick and roll to pad his assist numbers.

 

Like I said, Teague is playing about at the level where he was picked, compared to the people who are considered to be better than him.   He played good ball for most of the year, but had one horrible month in January from a shooting standpoint.

 

This is like expecting Paul Millsap to turn into Karl Malone or Al Horford to turn into Tim Duncan.  I'm sorry man.  Teague isn't going to turn into Chris Paul, or a 2008 Tony Parker.  He's a good player that, if he plays to the utmost best of his ability, could be a borderline All-Star.  He's probably playing about as well as he can right now.

 

All I know is that Horford, Teague and Millsap were the only 3 guys on the team, that consistently outplayed the guy they were going up against at their position, during the regular season.

 

 

 

Teague

 

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/atlanta-hawks/players/jeff-teague/profile/14/1/14/7

 

 

Millsap

 

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/atlanta-hawks/players/paul-millsap/profile/14/1/11/7

 

 

 

I mean, what would be a good season statistically from Teague, that will satisfy people?  Even if you have to do it month by month, would would be an acceptable season from Teague from a points - assists - FG% - eFG% -TS%?

 

Less sub 10 point games?  ( 14 last year )

Less 4 or less assist games? ( 17 )

 

More 20+ scoring games?  ( 23 )

More 10+ assist games?  ( 13 )

 

 

As big of a critic I was of the kid in his first few years in the league, I'm just happy that he can play at the level he's playing now.  If he became a top 10 PG, that would be fantastic.  Unexpected, but fantastic.

[bird_dirt]

This conversation is eerily similar to discussions in the past on Marvin. This is his second contract -"it's time for him to make that leap!", inconsistent, isn't aggressive enough, looses focus, doesn't seem to care if he's having a poor game, etc. The only thing saving Teague from as much pounding Marvin got was he was drafted 19th, so the word "potential" isn't thrown around quite as often. Unfortunately Chris Paul continues to be included in the conversation though.

I really hope he puts everything together and the stars all align and he somehow becomes a regular all star, but I'm not holding my breath. He's a decent pg, pretty good for one drafted that late, but with few exceptions to the rule, you aren't going to get the kind of player we all want from him that late in the draft. I would've reluctantly given him that second contract too, but only because better options weren't available. I hope we find a better option before this contract runs out.

[AHF]

Just to clarify, I would not group Teague with Marvin.  Marvin never rose above potential.  Teague has been much more impactful than Marvin.  I just don't remotely understand the people who want to use end of the season numbers to pretend like he has been consistent.  Going from piss poor to burning hot is the definition of variance but some people think that means you are holding his hot period against him for some reason.  Teague is capable of having a much better season than last year's if he gets more consistent.  He absolutely can score more consistently, he can reduce his near league low A/TO ratio (driven by high TO), he can become a plus defender with his length and athleticism, etc.  

 

Horford and Sap don't have a lot of untapped potential.  They can do some more but Teague is the one with the biggest gap between his ceiling and his floor.  Even just elevating the floor without changing his ceiling will do a lot for him.  IMO, he may have some consistentcy / intensity issues like Marvin did but they are totally different in terms of their value to the team even as Teague is today.  (I.e., Teague is at a higher level than Marvin ever was).

[bird_dirt]

Yeah, I know he's done more than Marv, I just keep reading a lot of the same things being said. Maybe that's why there's been a little less vitriol directed at Jeff.

I bet, though, you could remove their names from threads started about them, and you wouldn't readily recognize which player was being talked about.

[Guest]

Marvin was supposed to be a star, Teague was supposed to be serviceable.

Marvin has always faded to the background, Teague is at least in the spotlight.

[Peoriabird]

Yeah, I know he's done more than Marv, I just keep reading a lot of the same things being said. Maybe that's why there's been a little less vitriol directed at Jeff.

I bet, though, you could remove their names from threads started about them, and you wouldn't readily recognize which player was being talked about.

Just a retarded comparison in so many ways...I don't remember Marvin carrying his team on his back in the playoffs to the point where the other team put their best defender on him and still couldn't stop him. 

[bird_dirt]

Jesus. I am not trying to compare Marvin and Teague directly one on one. I am just pointing out that much of the same language that was used with Marvin is being used with Teague. That's it. End of story. And I pointed out that Teague hasn't gotten it as bad as Marvin because of draft position, expectations, and just in case I haven't mentioned it, yes, because he's actually shown SOMETHING on the floor.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Since people are bringing up old threads . . . 

 

It's interesting to see the jump that Teague has made this year.

 

- 1st All-Star appearance

- currently has a 22+ PER and a 57% Total Shot percentage

- career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals.

- arguably the MVP of the Hawks right now

- and most important . . almost has the trust of the entire fan base

[FrankWhite]

It's so rare to see a young player with a ton of potential who you weren't quite sure about actually reach that potential with the team that drafted him. And the crazy thing is he might get even better with Schröder pushing him and competing for minutes.

[macdaddy]

Hasn't it been a similar path with Mike Conley?   He was somewhat underwhelming when he first came in but now is a key piece for a contender.   It takes time for PGs right.   

[Peoriabird]

Since people are bringing up old threads . . . 

 

It's interesting to see the jump that Teague has made this year.

 

- 1st All-Star appearance

- currently has a 22+ PER and a 57% Total Shot percentage

- career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals.

- arguably the MVP of the Hawks right now

- and most important . . almost has the trust of the entire fan base

You can't just use raw stats to determine how well a player like Jeff is playing.  You have to use Advanced metrics like;

 

W/48 divided by (Warp x Pi) - the coefficient of the constant 1.36 on even days of the month of January and February ratio vs the top players in the history of the game.  Or something like that

[Duff_Man]

I was told there would be no math.

[FrankWhite]

Hasn't it been a similar path with Mike Conley?   He was somewhat underwhelming when he first came in but now is a key piece for a contender.   It takes time for PGs right.

That's true. I guess what I meant was it's so rare for a Hawks player.

[JETSET]

Since people are bringing up old threads . . . 

 

It's interesting to see the jump that Teague has made this year.

 

- 1st All-Star appearance

- currently has a 22+ PER and a 57% Total Shot percentage

- career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals.

- arguably the MVP of the Hawks right now

- and most important . . almost has the trust of the entire fan base

Let's not forget about his improved defense either.  Teague has been a monster on the defensive end this season.  He's shut down some of the better PGs in the league.

[Guest]

Let's not forget about his improved defense either. Teague has been a monster on the defensive end this season. He's shut down some of the better PGs in the league.

This is what I'm most impressed with.