ESPN "Predictive real plus-minus" predicts that Cleveland is still the favorite in the eastern conference playoffs

[Plainview1981]

It also says that Toronto and Washington could still be better in the playoffs"

 

It wasn't supposed to go like this.

The Cleveland Cavaliers -- anointed by pundits and oddsmakers alike as preseason favorites to win the Eastern Conference -- are a team in disarray.

And it's not just the 20-20 record, the negative point differential, the incessant lineup churn. It's also the relentless saga-***-soap-opera of rookie coach David Blatt.

Is LeBron James overriding Blatt's play calls? Did Blatt just say Kevin Love is not a max player? Are assistant coaches really calling timeouts behind the head coach's back? And why are Blatt's players giving such inconsistent effort? Has he lost the team already?

And yet -- despite all the failings and drama -- the Cavaliers still might be the best team in the East heading into the playoffs.

How is that possible?

 

 

Forecasting with predictive RPM

 

 

The Cavaliers' case can perhaps best be made by means of the metric -- real plus-minus (RPM) -- that allows us to estimate the true plus-minus impact of each player on both offense and defense. In addition to the basic RPM stats that appear at ESPN.com, Jeremias Engelmann and I also generate a related metric, Predictive RPM, that builds on data from prior seasons to give an even more accurate forecast of how each player is most likely to perform in the immediate future.

Using Predictive RPM, we can thus get a better sense of how the playoff races and postseason might shape up.

Based on each Cavalier's projected real plus-minus (RPM) impact and postseason playing time allocation -- assuming the integration of the Cavs' three newly acquired players into the rotation and reasonable health for everyone except Anderson Varejao, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles -- Cleveland projects to be very good.

 

Predictive Real Plus-Minus (Points/100 possessions) Name Offense Defense Total Proj. minutes LeBron James 6.52 1.18 7.70 38 Kevin Love 2.09 0.64 2.73 36 Iman Shumpert -0.97 1.77 0.80 16 Kyrie Irving 2.50 -1.81 0.69 38 Tristan Thompson 0.56 -0.30 0.26 29 M. Dellavedova 0.10 -0.07 0.03 15 J.R. Smith 0.42 -1.16 -0.74 30 James Jones 0.21 -1.45 -1.24 4 Timofey Mozgov -2.40 0.80 -1.60 18 Shawn Marion -2.06 0.01 -2.05 12 Brendan Haywood -2.92 0.41 -2.51 0 Joe Harris -1.45 -2.68 -4.13 0 Mike Miller -1.67 -2.53 -4.20 4 TOTAL (weighted) 7.48 -0.39 7.09 240

As shown, Cleveland projects to have an overall net efficiency of plus-7.09 points per 100 possessions -- with an elite offense (plus-7.48) and a mediocre defense (minus-0.39) -- when using a somewhat tightened playoff roster.

Here's how their roster compares with that of other Eastern Conference contenders, based on similar RPM-based lineup analyses:

Projected net efficiency Team Offense Defense Total Cleveland 7.48 -0.39 7.09 Toronto 7.25 -0.85 6.39 Washington 1.10 5.18 6.28 Atlanta 1.29 4.51 5.79 Chicago 1.17 3.16 4.32

Despite their difficult start, the Cavs rate slightly better in our RPM-based projections than any other team in the Eastern Conference.

That doesn't mean, of course, that Cleveland is actually favored to win any of its potential playoff matchups, since the Cavs would likely be playing without home-court advantage (typically worth more than three points per game) due to their poor start.

But our analysis does suggest, at the very least, that Cleveland has the requisite talent -- when healthy and playing to its potential -- to compete with any other team in the East.

 

 

Playing under their potential?

 

 

Yes, the Cavs have often seemed to be playing in "chill mode" this season, with truly lackluster effort on the defensive side of the ball, where the team's efficiency now ranks a dismal 25th in the NBA. And yes, Blatt has sometimes seemed indifferent to coaching tweaks that might help Love regain his superstar impact. (His RPM has dropped nearly three full points since joining the Cavs.)

For example, see if you can spot the common denominator in Love's most efficient four-man lineups so far this season (courtesy NBA.com/stats; minimum 50 minutes played):

Cavaliers' most efficient four-man lineups (2014-15) Lineup Minutes Off. efficiency Def. efficiency Net efficiency Irving-James-Love-Thompson 246 121.0 97.9 23.1 Marion-James-Love-Thompson 128 119.4 94.3 25.1 Irving-Marion-Love-Thompson 153 116.0 99.1 16.9 Waiters-Marion-Love-Thompson 62 102.9 87.1 15.8

Clearly, the Cavs have often played extremely well -- especially on the defensive end -- when Love has been paired in the frontcourt with Tristan Thompson, whose athletic interior presence helps offset some of Love's defensive limitations. And how many combined minutes did any of the above Love-Thompson lineups play during the team's dispiriting loss to the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday? Six.

Again, according to RPM, the Cavs have the talent to compete favorably with any team in the East. The question is whether they can play up to their potential.

 

 

Meanwhile, in the West

 

 

OK, there's another important question: How would the Cavs fare against the best teams in the West? Well, the league-leading Golden State Warriors rate a staggering eight points per 100 possessions better than the Cavs in the same RPM-based analyses -- a prohibitively large advantage -- and the other Western elites would also be heavily favored in any hypothetical NBA Finals matchup against LeBron & Co.

So, while Cleveland still has the dark horse potential to contend for the Eastern Conference crown this postseason, their chances of winning an NBA championship appear remote.

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12172518/cleveland-cavaliers-contenders-east

 

My god... Could ESPN be anymore desperate?

Edited January 18, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[Pterinochilus]

Lmao...ESPN is truly desperate.

[Plainview1981]

Lmao...ESPN is truly desperate.

 

That doesn't mean, of course, that Cleveland is actually favored to win any of its potential playoff matchups, since the Cavs would likely be playing without home-court advantage (typically worth more than three points per game) due to their poor start.

 

Like people aren't smart enough to figure out that they are trying to push the idea that Cleveland is the favorite. I hope Cleveland fails again... To anyone in the east to show just how stupid ESPN is.

[AHF]

Here is the big disconnect: Love's production historically is great. Blatt is not using him in a way that even remotely will let him replicate those historic numbers. Thus, relying on past performance is flawed where circumstances are materially different such that the historic numbers are vety unlikeky to repeat.

Seriously, it is like they are trying to run him off ala Dwight in LA.

[GameTime]

Kevin Love would be a great fit in Atlanta (2016 FA)

[WillyMo]

They made up a stat to try and hype the Cavaliers. Lol.

[DatWerkk]

Kevin Love would be a great fit in Atlanta (2016 FA)

 

Not sure I agree. Let's not forget that defense is half (HALF!) of the game. Love can shoot and Love would fix some of our rebounding problems, but does anybody see him playing the type of team defense we demand from all our guys? I don't.

 

Plus we don't need yet another PF. Gimme a sixth man-type 7-footer that rebounds and protects the rim and I'm good. Could even be a rookie. Willie Cauley-Stein anybody?

[MCVicious]

Is it me or is ESPN is so butthurt we are No. 1 they have to create a metric to give hope to their beloved "markets"?

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Here is the big disconnect: Love's production historically is great. Blatt is not using him in a way that even remotely will let him replicate those historic numbers. Thus, relying on past performance is flawed where circumstances are materially different such that the historic numbers are very unlikely to repeat.

Seriously, it is like they are trying to run him off ala Dwight in LA.

 

It is a common mistake people make.  Assuming that something will continue doing what it has done.  Trends are not predictors.

[Pterinochilus]

I truly believe they hate everything about Atlanta sports teams. For example I remember 2012 when the Falcons had the best record in the NFC ESPN did everything they could to tear apart what the Falcons had done. For example the Falcons had won a lot of close games. ESPN made that a negative if it had been the Patriots, Cowboys, etc. ESPN would have said that makes them a great playoff team because they know how to win in the clutch.

[Dejay]

If the Bulls or NYC had made this kind of run, they would be running a 30-for-30 special by now...

[NBASupes]

Please no Kevin Love, he only plays offense.

[Pterinochilus]

If the Bulls or NYC had made this kind of run, they would be running a 30-for-30 special by now...

Lol what's sad is this is not far from the truth. Remember when they did that special about best College Football teams ever the weekend before the National Championship Game and they had USC #1 then Texas beat them.

[GameTime]

Not sure I agree. Let's not forget that defense is half (HALF!) of the game. Love can shoot and Love would fix some of our rebounding problems, but does anybody see him playing the type of team defense we demand from all our guys? I don't.

 

Plus we don't need yet another PF. Gimme a sixth man-type 7-footer that rebounds and protects the rim and I'm good. Could even be a rookie. Willie Cauley-Stein anybody?

 

If we keep Sap (which we should) Love would be unnecessary. I was speaking of him being a good fit on offense and him improving our rebounding.

 

Don't forget the backup big has to be able to shoot 3's. Myles Turner anyone? (Will probably be a top 5 pick though)

[jy23]

Oh ESPN....you're so funny

[BrazilianHawk]

ESPN is crapping their pants...

 

[Diesel]

There's a definite media basis against this team because we have no superstars.  The problem is that we have a lot of compelling stories...

Korver, 33, is killing the league... after being traded by Chicago for cap space.  He has always been seen as a poor defensive player but now...

Horford back from two torn pecs..

Millsap has always been seen as some type of jorneyman.

DMC has always been labeled as a guy who can only give you energy on defense.

Sefalosha was washed up.

Teague was not elite.

 

We're a cast of misfits but we have come together like the best in the world!!