2015 Atlanta Dream and WNBA Previews

[AHF]

Are the dream just playing for draft position and pride at this point?

[Randy]

The tragic number is still 4 against DC, but chances are not great, though they Mystics have a pretty tough schedule and we play them twice.  We have already beaten them twice this year.  So playoffs are still possible, but unlikely.  All the East teams are playing each other a lot, and fighting for playoff position, so expect a lot of tough games - we play NY again, and Indy twice - the two best teams in the East who are fighting for first.

 

Equally unlike is the chance of improving the draft position by losing.  The WNBA is now using a 2 year average record for the lottery teams to decide the odds.  Bottom line - Dream won too many games last year to do any better than 4th in the lottery odds.  We are pretty much stuck at about 11% chance of No. 1.  (Of course, if we make the playoffs we move in the draft from 4th to maybe 5, 6, or even 7 (though I haven't checked the math).  Because Seattle lost so many last year and this year they are pretty assured of the best odds, followed by San Antonio and the Sun.  The Sun might catch the falling Stars but it seems unlikely given the Stars commitment to getting blown out every game.  We can't catch Sun either.  So its probably for pride.  

Edited August 25, 2015 by Randy

[AHF]

It will be interesting to see how that 2 year average plays out since a star can catapult a team from worst in the league to a playoff team in a single year (perhaps leaving them with a very good pick in year 2).

[Randy]

Sadly for the Dream it only applies to determining lottery odds - the rest of the teams go according to record.  So losing this year only helps if we are in the lottery again next year and the teams in the lottery go by single season record.  (Not as complicated as the NBA salary cap, but pretty twisted.)

Edited August 25, 2015 by Randy

[lethalweapon3]

So, who told the Sun that today's game started at 1:30? :)

 

~lw3

[Gray Mule]

I don't know how the two are related but, with Sancho back and the

three ball falling, the dream look like the team that we thought we

were before the season started.

 

How about our little Indian!  Got herself in shape and is now playing

like the all star that she is!  She's easy to spot when she's on the floor

like a marshmallow in a big cup of hot chocolate.

 

Angel now playing like Angel.  The new players fitting in.  I wish LaChina

would replace Nique on the Hawks broadcast.

 

Dream still has a very slim chance of making the playoffs.

 

[Randy]

Our playff hopes lie in the passing the Mystics.  It would take a mirical to catch Indy or the Sky, and I think we could never catch NY since they hold the tie breaker.  The tragic number is still four.  Mystics play Phoenix (in DC) then go to Seattle, Phoenix and LA before coming to Altanta Sept. 6.  If they lose 3 of those games (it could happen) and we win 3 in a row, the game on the 6th would take on huge importance.  Who do we play?  Only @Indy, then the next night at home against the Sky, and @NY.  So, the race could be over by then, or just getting started (as we have 4 games from Sep 6-13, including the season ender in DC on Sep. 13.) 

 

Sat. will be the only return to Atlanta for Erka this season (barring a playoff matchup).  I expect a big ovation for her, and it would be really nice if the Dream did a tribute to her like the Hawks have done some former players and the Jazz did for Sap, Kyle and DMC.

Edited August 26, 2015 by Randy

[lethalweapon3]

Hopefully Erika remains a drizzle and not a Hurricane tomorrow night (7 PM Eastern, SportSouth)!

 

Let's see which Dream team shows up in Indy against the Fever today!

 

~lw3

[Randy]

After this weekend's action, our Magic Number for the Stewart Lottery ticket is 2.  This team remains as unpredictable as ever - beating the (formerly?) hot Indiana team on their home court, then losing to a beatable Sky team (Delle Donne out) on our home court.  But it was an exciting game and the Erika tribute was quite memorable.  In the end, she put the dagger in our hearts by making the free throw that put the game out of reach.

 

Since the Mystics were mistaken in Seattle, (and they now face LA and Phonix before showing up here next Sunday) it will be up to the Liberty to try to take another breath out of our playoff hopes.  If we lose to NY tommorrow night our playoff hopes will be on the verge of going from life support to DNR.....

Edited August 31, 2015 by Randy

[Randy]

https://twitter.com/erikasouza14 "Can't find words to thank the @AtlantaDream and the fans for this. You made me cry! ❤ #allrespect4you Erika de Souza #14 added,"

[lethalweapon3]

Give me a road win over the first-place Liberty (no Local TV, MSG Network in NYC), or give me certain postseason death!

 

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Let's Go Dream!

~lw3 

Edited September 1, 2015 by lethalweapon3

[Randy]

And then there was 1.  Its now more up to the Mystics than us.  All they have to do is win one game against Phoenix, LA, us - twice, NY and Indiana.  We have to beat DC twice, LA, and Indiana for a playoff spot, even if DC loses every game.  I still think they come to Atlanta on Sunday without having secured their spot.

[Randy]

If you have the time to listen - the DeLisha Milton-Jones interview is an eye opener.  Covers a wide range of topics, including superstar calls, her career, including coaching men and playing against men growing up, mentoring younger players and working out with Shoni as they were both rehabing (DMJ from her achilles injury, and Shoni from her off-season weight gain.)  Hopefully she won't get fined by the league for some of this. 

 

http://www.hoopfeed.com/content/2015/09/03/dishin-swishin-90315-podcast-as-she-prepares-for-her-500th-wnba-game-delisha-milton-jones-looks-back/#.VeiabJH3ySQ.twitter

[Randy]

Theme song for Sunday's game:

[Randy]

 

 

 

Erika's tribute video. Very nice!

[Randy]

Well the Mystics stamped our lottery ticket last night.  We are locked in at 10.4% chance for the No. 1 pick.  We really don't need No. 1 (Stewart) as much as No. 2 (Mo Jefferson from UConn - best PG in the draft.)  We can take our frustration out on LA tonight (who probably will be in cruise mode) and Indy on Friday.  Since Indy couldn't beat DC (though they did get to OT) we should clobber them as well.  Finally we play DC on Sunday and should send a message as to which team really should have been in the playoffs. 

[Randy]

We blew out the lazy Sparks last night.  Only blowout this year that I can remember (except for those we were on the receiving end.)  Princess Parker and Nneka didn't play.  I guess they were afraid they might break a nail before the playoffs.

 

The 2016 draft seems to have 2 players that might be really good for the Dream - Stewart, of course would help any team.  Mo Jeff, also of UConn, is the consensus best PG in the draft, and probably in a long time.  So we can benefit a lot from either No. 1 or No. 2 pick.  The lottery drawing will be on Sept 24, so we won't have to wait long to find out what's going to happen.  I figure our chances of getting either No. 1 or No. 2 are about 25% - 1 in 4.  The bad news is that if I understand the formula correctly, if we don't get No. 1 or 2, we are stuck at No. 4.  (Though I'm going from terse press release that was not very clear.)  Its a bit early to get into too many scenarios for next season, but we could perhaps trade up in the draft since SA and the Sun wouldn't have a great need for another PG, should the get No. 2.) 

[Randy]

Final home game of the season and the long awaited Carla Cotijo is joining the team for the rest of the season - both games as an injury sub for Milton Jones (mysteriously suffering a concussion after her tell all podcast trashing the WNBA referees) and Roneeka Hodges.  So she will most certainly be anxious to show what she's got in what amounts to training camp contract audition for next year.   The Fever are 1 on game ahead of the Mystics with 2 games to go in the fight for 4th seed against NY.  They are 3-1 against NY, and 0-3 in blowout losses against the Sky.  Who do you suppose they would rather play? 

 

Anyway said to say, the season will soon be over and we can start watching college games see who to draft with our (likely) No. 4, No. 11, No. 13 and No. 17 draft picks.  Could be worse......

[lethalweapon3]

Once more, with feeling, Bob and LaChina!

 

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Hopefully Bob gets a little well-deserved break, although it's more likely he'll be calling some ACC Football on Saturdays in the interim.

 

Let's Go Dream!

 

~lw3

[Randy]

BTW - former Dream PG Erica Wheeler has signed a rest of season contract with the Liberty as an injury sub.  Some Liberty fans are afraid she will be their Poison  Pill - which is not a bad nickname (or is it a Knickname?).  Considering how Ivory Latta, Alex Bentley, Jasmine Thomas and Sam Logic all upped their game after leaving Atlanta, NY might be happy they've signed her.