5 early hawks predictions

[macdaddy]

http://www.rantsports.com/nba/2015/08/06/5-way-too-early-predictions-for-the-atlanta-hawks-2015-16-season/

 

I agree with these except, even though Baze is one of my favorites, i'm not convinced he's a consistent enough shooter to be a starter.   And I actually think Thabo gives us a few edges over Demarre except of course in 3 point shooting.   

 

 

 

 

 

5 Way-Too-Early Predictions for the Atlanta Hawks’ 2015-16 Season

By Johnathan Neumann

on August 6, 2015

 

 

 

 

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The Atlanta Hawks had a fantastic season a year ago, but it's time to gear up for the 2015-16 NBA season. Can the Hawks be as successful this year as they were last season? It's time for some way-too-early predictions about the upcoming campaign.

 

 

 

5. They Won't Be A No. 1 Seed Again

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Not exactly stepping out on a limb here according to most, but I still think the Hawks will be around this battle. I just don't expect the 19-game winning streak again which will bring them back down to the pack this time around. Early-season difficulties are possible as the team adjusts to the loss of DeMarre Carroll and some key guys get over offseason injuries. This is a pretty safe bet I'd say.

 

 

 

 

4. DeMarre Carroll Won't Be Missed As Much As Most Believe

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DeMarre Carroll was a very good player for this team, but the Hawks are well suited to ease the transition without him. Thabo Sefolosha can do a lot of the same things on defense that made Carroll so valuable. If Kent Bazemore is able to take another step this season, he is capable of almost outright replacing him as well. Carroll's loss, while big, shouldn't hurt the Hawks as much as a lot of people think.

 

 

 

 

3. Kent Bazemore Will Assume A Starting Spot

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Speaking of Kent Bazemore, this is a guy I'm quite high on for this season. The Hawks have been good at picking out guys to fit their system under Mike Budenholzer's tenure, with Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll being the marquee examples. I fully expect Bazemore to be the next guy on that list, and ultimately be the guy to replace Carroll. He has a lot to play for as he is also a free agent at year's end like Carroll was last year.

 

 

 

2. Tim Hardaway Jr. Will Prove To Be A Valuable Addition

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This move was met with much opposition in the fanbase, but I don't agree with the majority. Tim Hardaway Jr. will prove to be a pretty valuable member of this team. People complain about his defense (rightfully so) and say he isn't as good of a shooter as people think, but he will thrive in this offense. In New York he was often the best player on the court. When playing as a lesser option, he'll thrive with the space he's given.

 

 

 

 

 

1. Kyle Korver Will Bounce Back After Offseason Surgery

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Possibly the most key guy for the Hawks, Kyle Korver will have some questions to answer when he gets back to full speed. He's not exactly a young buck anymore, but he'll answer all of those questions and then some. This guy takes care of his body way too well to not be able to bounce back from something like this. I'm not saying he'll flirt with a 50-50-90 season again, but he'll be the guy the Hawks need him to be.

 

Johnathan Neumann is the Atlanta Hawks Beat Writer forRantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @JJ_Neumann, or add him to your network on Google

 

[rd79]

5. True

4. I think DeMarre will be replaced by Thabo (if healthy) quite well defensively and our frontcourt and Jeff could add the missing points - but can Thabo play his minutes and can Thabo be replaced in the 2nd unit?

3. I don't think Baze will become a legit starter this season - he may start because of injuries or a missing replacement for DeMarre

2. Maybe

1. I really doubt Kyle will become the 50%+ 3Pt shooter ever again... 

Edited August 6, 2015 by rd79

[Guest]

5. True

4. I think DeMarre will be replaced by Thabo (if healthy) quite well defensively and our frontcourt and Jeff could add the missing points - but can Thabo play his minutes and can Thabo be replaced in the 2nd unit?

3. I don't think Baze will become a legit starter this season - he may start because of injuries or a missing replacement for DeMarre

2. Maybe

1. I really doubt Kyle will become the 50%+ 3Pt shooter ever again...

1. Shooting is the last thing to go. If you can shoot, you can shoot till your 60 years old. I think he will still be $ from downtown.

[macdaddy]

I'm pretty confident in Hardaway making a difference.  We haven't had that kind of scoring off the bench.  You need that sometimes even if you are sacrificing on the other end.   

[ATLHawks3]

The only thing we should worry about is who will step up and be our Thabo off the bench?

[atlhawks1]

45-50 WINS.........second round exit..........

[JETSET]

45-50 WINS.........second round exit..........

50 is our floor unless we have bad luck with injuries.

[atlhawks1]

50 is our floor unless we have bad luck with injuries.

 

On paper, if things come together, they will make it to the second round. There are a lot of things that have to come together:

 

1. will Thabo come back 100 percent.

2. will Bazemore develop a semblance of a jump shot.

3. will Hardaway florish in this system.

4. will Splitter improve the offensive and defensive rebounding.

5. will Korver come back 100 percent.

 

I will say this: I like the makeup of THIS team, vs the one last year.

Edited August 6, 2015 by atlhawks1

[rd79]

1. Shooting is the last thing to go. If you can shoot, you can shoot till your 60 years old. I think he will still be $ from downtown.

 

True, but Kyle's high shooting percentage comes from running the floor a lot... Doubtful he can do that forever...

[GrimeyKidd]

Lets just say this.

 

PG Teague

SG Korver

SF Sefolosha

PF Millsap

C Horford

 

PG Schröder

SG Tim Hardaway

WING Bazemore

PF Scott?

C Splitter

 

PG Mack

SG (Patterson)

WING Holiday

PF Muscala

C Tavares

 

Sounds better than last years units

[RedDawg#8]

I'm pretty confident in Hardaway making a difference. We haven't had that kind of scoring off the bench. You need that sometimes even if you are sacrificing on the other end.

Exactly, its funny because one of the big debates around here last season was about us needing a guy who could get his own baskets and put up points when the offense gets bogged down in crunch time, and here we bring in a very young talented player who can do just that and now we are afraid he wont be a fit lol. Make no mistake Hardaway Jr will bring much needed scoring punch and by all estimations will be doing so under the safety net of coming off the bench. He and Dennis will make for a nasty duo on our 2nd unit just watch

[benhillboy]

I just want Dennis to progress at his steady rate and we cement the best defense in the East from December THROUGHOUT the playoffs and not fall off a cliff just because one guy goes down. We'll be in the Finals no doubt.

When Kyle first got here my hope was that he'd get hot and shoot 50% from downtown for a month or so. 4 years later, far be it from me to say what he won't be able to do, he's arguably had the most valuable shot attempt in the NBA over that span. He's wickedly smart and dedicated to his conditioning, I give him the absolute benefit of the doubt he'll return to his AS replacement self. I'm also of the belief that Bud hasn't been able to sleep good since our Conference Finals debacle and plans to atone big time.

I'm excited about Hardaway's definite offensive improvement, but I won't hold my breath waiting for him to become a solid defender.

Off topic, but I rarely check the site on full version. Had to update my account a bit. 6 years in and I'm a Hall of Famer? Honored.

Edited August 7, 2015 by benhillboy

[Guest]

I just want Dennis to progress at his steady rate and we cement the best defense in the East from December THROUGHOUT the playoffs and not fall off a cliff just because one guy goes down. We'll be in the Finals no doubt.

When Kyle first got here my hope was that he'd get hot and shoot 50% from downtown for a month or so. 4 years later, far be it from me to say what he won't be able to do, he's arguably had the most valuable shot attempt in the NBA over that span. He's wickedly smart and dedicated to his conditioning, I give him the absolute benefit of the doubt he'll return to his AS replacement self. I'm also of the belief that Bud hasn't been able to sleep good since our Conference Finals debacle and plans to atone big time.

I'm excited about Hardaway's definite offensive improvement, but I won't hold my breath waiting for him to become a solid defender.

Off topic, but I rarely check the site on full version. Had to update my account a bit. 6 years in and I'm a Hall of Famer? Honored.

This is my hope also.

[macdaddy]

I just want Dennis to progress at his steady rate and we cement the best defense in the East from December THROUGHOUT the playoffs and not fall off a cliff just because one guy goes down. We'll be in the Finals no doubt.

When Kyle first got here my hope was that he'd get hot and shoot 50% from downtown for a month or so. 4 years later, far be it from me to say what he won't be able to do, he's arguably had the most valuable shot attempt in the NBA over that span. He's wickedly smart and dedicated to his conditioning, I give him the absolute benefit of the doubt he'll return to his AS replacement self. I'm also of the belief that Bud hasn't been able to sleep good since our Conference Finals debacle and plans to atone big time.

I'm excited about Hardaway's definite offensive improvement, but I won't hold my breath waiting for him to become a solid defender.

Off topic, but I rarely check the site on full version. Had to update my account a bit. 6 years in and I'm a Hall of Famer? Honored.

 

Wow!  How do you get to be a hall of famer?

[AHF]

I just want Dennis to progress at his steady rate and we cement the best defense in the East from December THROUGHOUT the playoffs and not fall off a cliff just because one guy goes down. We'll be in the Finals no doubt.

When Kyle first got here my hope was that he'd get hot and shoot 50% from downtown for a month or so. 4 years later, far be it from me to say what he won't be able to do, he's arguably had the most valuable shot attempt in the NBA over that span. He's wickedly smart and dedicated to his conditioning, I give him the absolute benefit of the doubt he'll return to his AS replacement self. I'm also of the belief that Bud hasn't been able to sleep good since our Conference Finals debacle and plans to atone big time.

I'm excited about Hardaway's definite offensive improvement, but I won't hold my breath waiting for him to become a solid defender.

Off topic, but I rarely check the site on full version. Had to update my account a bit. 6 years in and I'm a Hall of Famer? Honored.

 

Congrats on your HOF selection!

 

My reservation on Hardaway is in four areas, two he controls and two which are more about the deal:

 

• His epic level bad defense so far in his career (arguably the worst guard in the entire NBA statistically over that period).
• His underwhelming offense last season which saw him shoot 38.9% from the floor while turning the ball over more than any other Knicks guard.
• The fact that he is only team-controlled for two seasons compared to four with the #15 overall pick.
• My read that NY would have taken less for Hardaway than we paid.

I am rooting for him to blow my expectations out of the water.

[macdaddy]

Congrats on your HOF selection!

 

My reservation on Hardaway is in four areas, two he controls and two which are more about the deal:

 

• His epic level bad defense so far in his career (arguably the worst guard in the entire NBA statistically over that period).
• His underwhelming offense last season which saw him shoot 38.9% from the floor while turning the ball over more than any other Knicks guard.
• The fact that he is only team-controlled for two seasons compared to four with the #15 overall pick.
• My read that NY would have taken less for Hardaway than we paid.

I am rooting for him to blow my expectations out of the water.

 

Yeah that last point is a little big picture scary for the budcox regime.  If Hardaway doesn't do well then that's two consecutive first rounders we gave away.  We'll get the payne one back but still.

 

People around here were in love, and some still are, with Jamal Crawford who in my opinion is probably the worst defender in the nba. Hardaway has the physical tools and seems to have the attitude to improve.   

[AHF]

People around here were in love, and some still are, with Jamal Crawford who in my opinion is probably the worst defender in the nba. Hardaway has the physical tools and seems to have the attitude to improve.   

 

Among guards, guard-forwards and forward-guards (as defined by basketball reference) who played 1000 minutes in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons, Hardaway ranks #3 (2014-15) and #20 (2013-14) for worst defensive seasons by defensive win shares.  He and Nick Young are the only guys who made it both seasons.

 

Jamal ranks #88 and #124 so Hardaway has some work to do to catch up with him statistically.

 

If you use a different metric, his seasons are the 5th and 6th worst according to Defensive Rating.  Jamal's seasons are 89 and 90th worst.  That is remarkable consistency by both players!

[AHF]

Drtg List of Infamy

 

http://bkref.com/tiny/kYyfE

 

DWS List of Infamy

 

http://bkref.com/tiny/cMofG

[macdaddy]

Drtg List of Infamy

 

http://bkref.com/tiny/kYyfE

 

DWS List of Infamy

 

http://bkref.com/tiny/cMofG

 

I'm not going to claim to understand this but 99% of the guys in the top 50 (worst 50) were on horrible teams.

[AHF]

I'm not going to claim to understand this but 99% of the guys in the top 50 (worst 50) were on horrible teams.

 

I am sure there is some drag / boost effect from the team setting, but Hardaway stands out even among those guys - even among his own terrible teammates.  

 

This should also not be a complete shock that there would be correlation.  Terrible defense tends to result in bad teams!