This⬇️

[AHF]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Eh, only when I choose to put thought into a post (which is rare).  I want THJr playing and I don't care what the nimbers say (right now).  I think they're flawed due to the sporadic play time.  Yes, I realize you can 'adjust' them to force a supposed apples-to-apples comparison but, long story long, I hate the per36/per18/perWhatever numbers.  I don't think stats can be extrapolated that way.  Too many assumptions IMHO.

So, yes, I see and understand your info but they don't sway my opinion.

So in all seriousness what is your thought process on giving him more minutes.

I can get behind giving Korver more rest, but I struggle to understand what gives people confidence that he has such a high ceiling when he  has done so little in the minutes he has gotten.  Is the idea that he is a volume shooter and that until we give him a high volume of shots he will never get efficient?  Is it that his limited production is a health issue and he has just gotten healthy in the last week or so?  Is it that we just need to give him more minutes to figure out what we really have in him for roster planning purposes?

Just trying to understand this and address misstatements about what he has actually accomplished.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The whole per 36 annoys me too.  Hell even our starters hardly plays 36 minutes average.

Just as an aside, you guys realize the per minute stats were cited to help THJr in this discussion right?  The statement was made that THJr was putting up better numbers than Korver in everything but 3pt%.  If you go off simple per game numbers, Korver has a huge advantage because he plays a lot more minutes.  Therefore, using the per minute stat gives THJr a fair shot at showing he is really doing more than Korver.  If you guys prefer absolute minutes we can use those but I do think the per minute stats are very useful for projecting players and are a much more fair way to compare the two.

Take a look at DMC's per minute stats sometime for an example of where per minute stats can be helpful in projecting a player.  They are near identical in Utah and Atlanta other than his improvement in shooting.  

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

So in all seriousness what is your thought process on giving him more minutes.

I can get behind giving Korver more rest, but I struggle to understand what gives people confidence that he has such a high ceiling when he  has done so little in the minutes he has gotten.  Is the idea that he is a volume shooter and that until we give him a high volume of shots he will never get efficient?  Is it that his limited production is a health issue and he has just gotten healthy in the last week or so?  Is it that we just need to give him more minutes to figure out what we really have in him for roster planning purposes?

Just trying to understand this and address misstatements about what he has actually accomplished.

He's 23 and has room to grow.  Korver is struggling on offense and defense.  Bazemore has hit a wall.

[Watchman]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

He's 23 and has room to grow.  Korver is struggling on offense and defense.  Bazemore has hit a wall.

The wall fell on Bazemore after he hit it.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

So in all seriousness what is your thought process on giving him more minutes.

I can get behind giving Korver more rest, but I struggle to understand what gives people confidence that he has such a high ceiling when he  has done so little in the minutes he has gotten.  Is the idea that he is a volume shooter and that until we give him a high volume of shots he will never get efficient?  Is it that his limited production is a health issue and he has just gotten healthy in the last week or so?  Is it that we just need to give him more minutes to figure out what we really have in him for roster planning purposes?

Just trying to understand this and address misstatements about what he has actually accomplished.

Basically what JBird said.  He has talent and we clearly need help in that spot.  Our wings have given us nothing pretty much all season.  Well BazeLock had a few nice games, I'll give him that.  I don't think there's any reason to not play him more at this point.  Not just to spell Korver, he should play more than Korver.

The step back Kyle has taken can no longer be underestimated.  And I don't think I even need to explain why BazeLock needs to sit.

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

He's 23 and has room to grow.  Korver is struggling on offense and defense.  Bazemore has hit a wall.

That translates to me as "We have no wing depth and need to get our struggling starters rest.  Might as well give our 23 year old some burn and see what happens."

I am fine with that.  What I don't like is seeing "THJr has really been playing well.  He has earned more minutes."

The former I am fine with.  The latter I will argue (unless you are solely talking about the GS game in which case I would say it was his best game but doesn't constitute a meaningful sample size).

[macdaddy]

Per36 KK then TH

3p% :  38% - 24%     <<< Kyle+

2p%:   50% - 51%   =====

FT% :  83% - 96%   THj +

Free Throw Attempts: 1.0 - 1.9  THj+

Rebounds: 4 - 4 per game =======

Assists: 2.6 - 2.5 =======

Steals:  1.1 - .9 ======

Blocks:  .5 - .4 ======

Turnovers:  1.7 - .9  THj+

 

 

[Guest]

OMFG I hate per-stats.  It's basically cross-multiplication dressed up in fancy language.

[AHF]

I've given you the per 36 numbers.  THJr is worse at just about everything.  Small margins in most places.  They add up to worse numbers in every advanced metric as well.

Hey, if you want to ignore 3pt shooting in Bud's offense from your shooting guard, do it at your own risk.  I am pretty sure I know how it will work out if THJr doesn't fix his broken 3pt shot.

There is no argument that THJr has been better than Korver by the numbers - particularly if you aren't willing to blind yourself to the impact of Korver's 3pt shooting.  I hope we all know that Korver without his 3pt shot is not in the league.  With his 3pt shot, he becomes a deadly scorer when he is on.  Even when he isn't he destroy's THJr in TS%.

And that is where it ends up.  Add up the 3pt shooting, 2pt shooting, ft shooting and you get one guy who is vastly inferior as a scorer to Korver.

And you end up with 2 guys who are underproducing in non-scoring categories in Korver and THJr.  Saying that THJr is nearly as good at Korver in these categories is like saying that Mugsy Bogues is nearly as tall as Spud Webb.  Neither are giving you what you want but you put up with it for Kyle's great scoring efficiency and ability to stretch the floor.

I don't want a Kyle Korver who shoots .489% TS%.

 

For those that hate the per minute stats you can go down to the possession level as well when you look at rebound, assist, steal, etc. rates.  They show a further breakdown of the differences in non-shooting performance:

THJr has:

• a 180% higher offensive rebound rate  (i.e., 1.4% offensive rebound rate to 0.5% offensive rebound rate)
•  a 93% better turnover rate

Korver has:

• a 25% better steal rate
• a 50% better block rate
• a 7.5% better defensive rebound rate (the two rebound rates leave them with the same total rebound rate which gives you a sense of how many more rebounding opportunities come and are realized on the defensive end of the floor)
• a 4% better assist rate

Both of these guys are members of the Singles this year for PER which is just woeful.  (9.8 for Korver versus 9.0 for THJr)

Our wings need  upgrading in the worst way.  That Payne pick just hurts.

[Guest]

Quote

ATLANTA -- Tim Hardaway, Jr. wouldn’t give the nets a rest here Thursday afternoon in a shooting drill in the Atlanta Hawks practice gym. It was positively Steph-like. Hardaway hit 28 consecutive 3s from the right wing. At one point, he had a string of 17 3s without a miss from the left wing.

Hardaway made 73 of 80 3s in the post-practice drill.

“A great day,” Hardaway said with a smile. He was being defended by air, but it was still a nifty display of skill.

Hardaway was coming off another good day when he scored 12 points against theGolden State Warriors last week, just his third double-digit game of the season.

Mostly, though, it has been a fitful season for the former first-round pick from Michigan and son of former NBA All-Star Tim Hardaway.

The 6-6 Atlanta guard suffered a broken right wrist in the 2015 NBA Summer League, and the injury nagged him into the fall. He didn’t regroup fast enough for Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer and, on opening night, playing against the Detroit Pistons, with his father on the Pistons bench as an assistant coach, Tim, Jr. was inactive.

“It was heart-breaking,” he said.

Hardaway did not play, or was inactive, in the Hawks’ first 15 games. He played limited minutes in four games in late November, and then was inactive for 15 of the next 16 games.

A member of the NBA All-Rookie Team in 2013-14 with the Knicks when he played 81 games, Hardaway’s career went sprawling into the D-League twice this season.

“It was a learning experience,” Hardaway said. “All caps on ‘learning experience’.”

The Hawks wanted to see more out of him on the defensive end and Hardaway admitted his injury took him out of game shape for that end of the floor. The whole marriage looked like a bust with the Hawks taking flak for surrendering a 2015 first-round pick for a player they couldn’t get on the court.

“You have to sprint the floor, you have to come off screens when you are playing defense, and you have to trail screens, you have to get over pick-and-rolls, and you have to talk,” Hardaway said. “It takes a lot of energy and the injury played a big part.”

Hardaway did not make things messy. He said he fumed for a several hours after Budenholzer informed him of the first trip to the D-League on December 3. But when he was told there was a plane ticket for him the next day, he said, “What time? I’ll be on it. Let’s go.”

“My father told me ‘They know what they’re doing here, they are not going to bring you here for no reason’,” Tim. Jr. said.

Hardaway would be just another guy trying to make his way in the NBA, if it wasn’t for the last name and his star status at Michigan. There are rubberneckers checking out the boxscores, perhaps wondering if he is going to go in a ditch for good. Hardaway has stayed spirited on the bench, not crushed.

“We’re happy with the way Tim has responded. He had an injury that was a little bit understated,” Budenholzer said. “The ultimate goal in our league is to be a two-way player. I think he has the athleticism where he can be a good two-way guy. He’s on his way.”

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2016/02/26/tim-hardaway-mike-budenholzer-hawks-dleague/80974866/

 

[Guest]

Yes, Tim needs more minutes.

If for nothing else than this.........

The advanced numbers are more optimistic and show a great deal of improvement at the defensive end of the floor for Hardaway. His 93.2 defensive rating is currently the second-best mark on the team and his net rating of 11.1 is tops. Sample size rules apply in this case but for a guy that was known as a turnstile on defense prior to his arrival in Atlanta, this is a positive development

[ATLHawks3]

Tim is getting more and more confident in his game now that Bud trusts him. If he can kick it into another gear heading into the playoffs we'll be dangerous.

[AHF]

Definitely agree he has improved significantly on D from his first two seasons (work is paying off in his reserve role) and hope to see consistency and continued improvement into the playoffs!  Would LOVE to be wrong on this and see us get good return for this trade.

[hazer]

Skills are there, effort is there, now the coaching/development is there. Which is why I've always believed this will turn out well...

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, hazer said:

Skills are there, effort is there, now the coaching/development is there. Which is why I've always believed this will turn out well...

Hope you are right.  Shooting 44% from the field and 37% from 3pt range over a season will be a good start.   We need serious production in the remaining 1.25 seasons he has with us before he is a free agent for this to turn out well.