In Praise of Young Timmy

[AHF]

I've previously said that I don't think Tim's FG% is sustainable but that it has been fantastic so far this season.  Let me break it down a little with some praise both for his accomplishments that will be a challenge to sustain and for some that I hope signal improvements that will continue to pay dividends for THJr:

#1 - Tim Is Taking the Ball to the Hole A Lot More (Sustainable improvement)

According to basketball reference, Tim has increased his shots at the rim by roughly 50% this season.  Tim's career average of shots taken from 0-3 feet from the basket was roughly 20.5% coming into this season.  Last season was a career high of 22.9%.  This season THJr has 30.4% of his shots at or near the rim.  That is a fantastic improvement.  Those are the most efficient shots in anyone's arsenal (other than Kyle Korver) and have been Tim's best shot at a 66% rate for his career coming into this season.  He has gone a step further and not only taken many more shots from that range but has shot a blistering 77.4% from that distance.  While he is unlikely to finish the season above 77% shooting in this range, he shot 70% from there last season and the mere fact that he has taken so many more shots from that range while sustaining (and improving) that efficiency will pay big dividends.

#2 - Tim Is Getting to the Line Better than Ever

The best part is there is even more sustainable upside in terms of his free throws.   Not coincidently, as Tim as taken a huge increase of shots at the rim his free throw rate has also made a huge jump.  

Tim's FTA/36 last season was 2.3.  This season he has more than doubled that to 4.9 FTA/36.  That is huge.  If he can sustain the increased attempts, it will vastly help his scoring efficiency.

In addition to the long-term upside, there is also short-term upside.  Tim is shooting a Josh Smith-like 65.6% from the line this season compared to his career average of over 81% (with almost 90% last season).  Those extra trips to the line will continue to drop points at a high rate of efficiency regardless but his FT shooting should regress to the mean in a positive way which will give an even greater impact to the increased FTAs.

#3 - Tim Has Cut The Long 2 Attempts Down Dramatically

As Tim has increased his most efficient shots, he has also cut back on the worst shot in his repertoire - the long 2.  For his career, Tim took 15% of his attempts as two point shots 16 or more feet from the basket.  He has more than cut that number in half this year, taking a measly 6.9% of his attempts from that distance.  The long 2 has been by far his worst shot this season clocking in at 28.6% from the field.  That number is unsustainably low for him but his smart reduction in attempts from this distance has mitigated the damage from that shooting and replacing those shots with ones close to the basket has resulted in a huge lift in efficiency.

#4 - Tim Has Shot Out of His Mind from 2pt Range

This one I question as sustainable but give Timmy props.  Tim historically has shot 34% of his attempts from 2pt range shy of 16 feet.  This season he has shot over 40% from that distance.  He is shooting career highs from 0-3 feet, 3-10 feet, and 10-16 feet.  Not only career high but killing it shooting 77%, 50% and 67% from these distances (previous career averages are 66%, 25% and 36% respectively).  I don't think the massive improvements in the 3-16 foot distance is sustainable but a more modest improvement could be sustainable and would mean very nice things for Tim's present and future.

#5 - Tim's Defense Continues to Improve

You can see on the floor and it is reflected in the numbers with career highs in DRtg, DWS/48, FG% allowed, OPP PER and pretty much any defensive metric you want to use.  The improvement in defense is absolutely a sustainable part of the evolution of his game.  He was starting from the point of one of the worst defenders in the league and while not someone you'd use as a stopper against a team's best scorers, he is more than holding his own against his bench counterparts this season.  The hard work in the gym this summer and the development he put in last season continues to pay off.

In Summary

I'm not going into any real criticisms of Tim's game in this post (you can find those elsewhere and I still believe them) but as the guy who was most disillusioned by THJr on this site, I felt it appropriate that I give him praise for some of the improvements we have seen so far this year.  My message is that we have seen sustainable improvements in shot selection and to some degree of the very improved shot accuracy he has displayed on offense and the defensive success is a matter of effort and focus that he can likewise continue.  Getting that play consistently from him this season should turn him into a very valuable source of offense off the bench this year and maybe even put him in 6th man conversations if he continues at the level he has shown in the opening 11 games.  He has even has further upside from here with his perimeter shooting (that could alternately offset regression to the mean from some of his crazy good early numbers).  

If he can keep anything like this up, I am expecting a guy that Bud can play with confidence in the playoffs this season.  That would be a welcome sight for all Hawks fans and could be enough to swing a series with one of the big games he has shown several times already this year in a critical moment against a tough team.  Keep it up Tim!

[Guest]

Wow @AHF. It takes a big man to write that post. Also, kudos to Tim for working hard. I swear, from when he was a Knick to now...night n day.

[capstone21]

LW3 like post right there

[Guest]

You'll be doing one for Moose soon too, since you questioned picking up his option. 

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

You'll be doing one for Moose soon too, since you questioned picking up his option. 

I would have been thrilled to pick up his option after the prior season.  Last season was putrid for him with no excuses in the way of health, transition, system, etc.

[thecampster]

http://www.82games.com/1617/1617ATL.HTM  

 

Through the first 9 games (82 games is always a few games behind), the Hawks are +4.2 with Tim off the floor, +19 with him on. He has a win share of 77%.

Even crazier numbers belong to Howard and Delaney.  With Howard on the floor, his simple production rating is a 35.7 (best on team by far). His opponents 10.5.  With Delaney on the floor, his on court/off court differential is +25.  Schröder is = -26.  The offense is running far better with Delaney on the floor.

[Thomas]

Kinda stunning how smooth Delaney's transition has been so far. Great job by the staff working with him I'm sure.

[Lurker]

It's not about the offense.... Put Delaney with Kyle and Kent and he'd struggle too. It's a repeat of last year with this.

Edited November 17, 2016 by Lurker

[AHF]

Our whole bench is destroying the opposition's bench.  Rising tide lifts all boats for that group.  They have been great.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

http://www.82games.com/1617/1617ATL.HTM  

 

 He has a win share of 77%.

Do you know exactly what that stat is?  It isn't win shares.  Delaney and Edy at 100%.  Dwight is at 66.7%.  Is it percentage of minutes that player is on the floor and we are winning?

[LamarHampton]

[High5]

4 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

You'll be doing one for Moose soon too, since you questioned picking up his option. 

The NBA's 2PT FG% leaders:

1. Moose 74%

2. Timmy 67%

5. Dwight 62%

[Guest]

Unfortunately Tim is going to become very expensive next year.

If Bazemore becomes our 2 guard next year (with Prince or a new acquisition at the 3), then Tim is too expensive as a back-up.  Kyle would be cheaper to resign as a back-up.

So, do we think about trading Tim, and if so, when?

[Thomas]

Everyone will be expensive as we all have found out this year but I imagine the Hawks will make sure to capitalize on their development of Tim as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff. He will have slumps but his overall play has improved a great deal and he should keep getting better. The one two punch of Baze and Tim at SG next year would be strong and I'm feeling that might be the lineup at some point next season with how Prince looks at SF already with so little playing time.  

[Bankingitbig]

12 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

Unfortunately Tim is going to become very expensive next year.

If Bazemore becomes our 2 guard next year (with Prince or a new acquisition at the 3), then Tim is too expensive as a back-up.  Kyle would be cheaper to resign as a back-up.

So, do we think about trading Tim, and if so, when?

He may be expensive, but I think his cap hit will only be $5.7M which is nothing for a starting 2-guard.

I definitely see THJ as our starting 2-guard next year with Kent still at the 3-spot. I think it will still be too early for Prince, especially with the way Bud's development works. Korver will be 36 next year and his contract is up after this year. It will be interesting to see if he retires or takes a generous deal to stay with the team for a year or more, but either way I think he will be a backup then.

[KB21]

I suspected that this may be the case, but Tim appears to be the next graduate of Hawks University.  What this coaching staff does with player development is amazing!!

[Thomas]

With Kyle and his wife cranking out babies frequently I expect him to keep earning player money for at least a couple of years. He would be a pretty good bench piece for three point percentage shooting whether its five minutes or twenty a game. Needs to keep padding the future of his kids whether he does it here or elsewhere. Those coaching days can wait a little longer. 

[Thomas]

17 minutes ago, Bankingitbig said:

He may be expensive, but I think his cap hit will only be $5.7M which is nothing for a starting 2-guard.

I definitely see THJ as our starting 2-guard next year with Kent still at the 3-spot. I think it will still be too early for Prince, especially with the way Bud's development works. Korver will be 36 next year and his contract is up after this year. It will be interesting to see if he retires or takes a generous deal to stay with the team for a year or more, but either way I think he will be a backup then.

Yeah, no matter who starts do believe if Tim is still here he and Prince will both see plenty of minutes. A good question that always teases us is where on the floor Baze will get most of his minutes.

[Guest]

17 hours ago, Spud2Nique said:

Wow @AHF. It takes a big man to write that post. Also, kudos to Tim for working hard. I swear, from when he was a Knick to now...night n day.

Meh.  With the way Timmay's been playing, he had no choice but post a mea culpa of sorts or risk losing what little credibility he had left.

17 hours ago, AHF said:

I would have been thrilled to pick up his option after the prior season.  Last season was putrid for him with no excuses in the way of health, transition, system, etc.

Well it takes insight to make moovs to acquire/keep players before they breakout vs after they've broken out and are too eggspensive.

Oh, forgot to add, .... Boom.

Edited November 18, 2016 by kg01

[AHF]

27 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Well it takes insight to make moovs to acquire/keep players before they breakout vs after they've broken out and are too eggspensive.

Oh, forgot to add, .... Boom.

That means more coming from a guy who voted to cut Moose this preseason.  Welcome to the club!