John Collins Rookie Impact

[aali34]

 

[benhillboy]

No doubt in my mind he's gonna be a stud.  He focuses in on things many kids his age don't even realize.

[Buzzard]

If he gets to start after the all-star break, I can see him putting up 10 to 12 and 8 or so after the break; if he gets to start sooner, I still say the same. He is a rookie and I just keep things in mind like Draymond Green in his 3rd year when he finally got 31 plus minutes a game, 11 and 8 or Horfords rookie year when he got 10 and 9 in 31 minutes.

It is a learning curve like nothing he has ever experienced on a basketball court. There are no nights off in the NBA compared to college competition.

Edited August 8, 2017 by Buzzard

[KB21]

His impact as a rookie will mostly be as a pick and roll dive man and occasional pick and pop shooter.  I think he will attack the offensive boards with abandon, and he will be able to take advantage of defenders closing out on him.

Defensively, he's going to be very bad as a rookie.  It will probably give him an overall negative grade as a rookie, but I anticipate that he will get better within the scheme.  

I think by year three, he will have mastered those mid post plays that Atlanta ran through Paul Millsap along with being a passable defender.  If he does that, then he's probably not quite a star level player, but he is better than a high end role player.  If the defense becomes above average, then you might be looking at a potential star player.  

[BigDog90]

I don't expect him to play much at all. Hawks got Ersan, Babbitt, Muscula who all got more experience than him.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him in and out of D League.

[Mdizzle5]

He should definitely play over Moose, at the least. Bud probably won't do that but I would. 

[ATLSmith]

Very impressed with JC but  I can totally see him having limited minutes for at least the first half of the season, maybe longer.  He needs to bulk up a bit to compete with some of the more physical forwards in the NBA and it would be difficult to gain weight playing full minutes during the season.

Give the kid some time.  There's no reason to rush him into the starting role.

So, looking ahead to next year I would expect him to average 16 pts, 7 reb, and 3 assists next year.  If he has like 4 or 5 assists that would be money.

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, ATLSmith said:

He needs to bulk up a bit to compete with some of the more physical forwards in the NBA and it would be difficult to gain weight playing full minutes during the season.

 

I truly don't understand why people make up reason why John Collins should not start this season or even pretend that he cannot score in this league as a rookie.  According to reports, John Collins in one of the strongest rookies in this rookie class and as far as him needing to gain weight to play, he weighs 235lbs which is exactly what Ilyasova weighs and is 5 pounds lighter than Muscala's listed weight.  Listen guys, John Collins will be a double digit scorer and close to a double digit rebounds his 1st season in the league.

[hazer]

39 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I truly don't understand why people make up reason why John Collins should not start this season or even pretend that he cannot score in this league as a rookie.  According to reports, John Collins in one of the strongest rookies in this rookie class and as far as him needing to gain weight to play, he weighs 235lbs which is exactly what Ilyasova weighs and is 5 pounds lighter than Muscala's listed weight.  Listen guys, John Collins will be a double digit scorer and close to a double digit rebounds his 1st season in the league.

Eggzackly. JC was a top 10 talent that slipped to 19th. No-brainer pick who just fell into The Colonel's lap? If that's the case then the GMs for picks 11-18 must have no brain. I predict The Baptist will end up one of the top 5 players in this draft class in a few years. He needs to play at least 20mpg right out of the gate.

[ATLSmith]

@Peoriabird I'm not denying the kid can play and never said he can't score.  Also, I'm not "making up reasons."  I'm being realistic with my expectations for a 19 year old rookie and realize there will be areas that need improvement.

Yes, he is strong for a rookie but that still makes him undersized, especially for a starter.  The average weight for a NBA PF is 245.  Milsap, who is two inches shorter, is 246.  Blake Griffin is 251, Anthony Davis is 252, Kevin Love is 251, etc.  If you want JC to be what we already have in Ilyasova, then go ahead and start the kid.  If you want to develop him into the unstopable force he can become, then give him some time and the right conditioning.  The good news is that he doesn't have far to go so he will get there sooner than later.

[Peoriabird]

35 minutes ago, ATLSmith said:

@Peoriabird I'm not denying the kid can play and never said he can't score.  Also, I'm not "making up reasons."  I'm being realistic with my expectations for a 19 year old rookie and realize there will be areas that need improvement.

Yes, he is strong for a rookie but that still makes him undersized, especially for a starter.  The average weight for a NBA PF is 245.  Milsap, who is two inches shorter, is 246.  Blake Griffin is 251, Anthony Davis is 252, Kevin Love is 251, etc.  If you want JC to be what we already have in Ilyasova, then go ahead and start the kid.  If you want to develop him into the unstopable force he can become, then give him some time and the right conditioning.  The good news is that he doesn't have far to go so he will get there sooner than later.

You lost me...I was refuting the claim that he was too small to start when in reality the guys slated to start ahead of him in your world are the same size as he is so what makes them better starters?

[ATLSmith]

11 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

You lost me...I was refuting the claim that he was too small to start when in reality the guys slated to start ahead of him in your world are the same size as he is so what makes them better starters?

Experience.

[Peoriabird]

29 minutes ago, ATLSmith said:

Experience.

So now you go from size and strength to experience...But anyway,  what does it matter? This isn't a championship quality team with an All Star ahead of him so why not start him?

[Sothron]

This is right. We are going to be a bad team on purpose. Might as well play the young guys and see what we have in them. There's any number of recent big man example where even in  limited minutes their first and second seasons you could see they had star power. We need to see if JC has it. I personally think he does.

[Peoriabird]

5 minutes ago, Sothron said:

This is right. We are going to be a bad team on purpose. Might as well play the young guys and see what we have in them. There's any number of recent big man example where even in  limited minutes their first and second seasons you could see they had star power. We need to see if JC has it. I personally think he does.

My reasons are different...I just think he is better than any power forward currently on the team

[ATLSmith]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

So now you go from size and strength to experience...But anyway,  what does it matter? This isn't a championship quality team with an All Star ahead of him so why not start him?

Yes. I answered "experience" because you specifically asked me for a reason, other than size, to start other PFs over JC.

I'm a big JC fan already and he hasn't played a single NBA game.   I hope he does average double didgets scoring and close to double didgit rebounds next year as you predicted.  That would be terriffic.  I also feel that it is in best interest to limited minutes during the first half of the season so he is better rested and able to get stronger and put in more time at "Hawks U".  Doing this will reduce his immediate impact next year but increase his impact in the long term.

I know we dissagree on the last point and I'm cool with that.

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, ATLSmith said:

Yes. I answered "experience" because you specifically asked me for a reason, other than size, to start other PFs over JC.

I'm a big JC fan already and he hasn't played a single NBA game.   I hope he does average double didgets scoring and close to double didgit rebounds next year as you predicted.  That would be terriffic.  I also feel that it is in best interest to limited minutes during the first half of the season so he is better rested and able to get stronger and put in more time at "Hawks U".  Doing this will reduce his immediate impact next year but increase his impact in the long term.

I know we dissagree on the last point and I'm cool with that.

Better rested? I'm totally lost

[ATLSmith]

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Better rested? I'm totally lost

Yes.  Better rested with limited minutes.

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, ATLSmith said:

Yes.  Better rested with limited minutes.

You do understand that "the classroom" at the so called Hawk University is on the court right? So playing is how the players learn the offense..Not resting up during games to get ready for practice the next day.

[ATLSmith]

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

You do understand that "the classroom" at the so called Hawk University is on the court right? So playing is how the players learn the offense..Not resting up during games to get ready for practice the next day.

No it isnt.  Players learn on the practice court and by studying the playbook.  They execute what they've learned in a game.  I do realize they can still learn things during a game but it is usually at the cost of a mistake.

More to my original point, they don't gain strength in a game either.  That is done in the gym with propper reps and recovery time.

I feel like your are just arguing for the sake of argument at this point.  We are way off the topic of this thread.