The Tank Thread

[AHF]

15 minutes ago, High5 said:

You're arguing things that don't matter. You also left out the part where KG changed his mind. The whole point of this discussion is whether or not drafting in the lottery is necessary to win a championship. The overwhelming evidence says yes. Boston and Cleveland are two of the many examples, regardless of how you view the circumstances.

As for potential packages, who knows? We're not trying to trade for a star player this offseason and we may never need to. We have 5 possible first round picks coming up in the next two drafts. We will have money to spend. Many things can happen in the next 3+ years. 

What I do know is staying the course so we could trade our mid-round pick along with Dwight, Sap, or THJ with their contracts would have gotten us nowhere. 

I have no inherent interest in seeing us lose games.  The only interest in that is to the extent that presents our best path to a high lottery pick.  I would have been thrilled to be able to trade two of Sap, Dwight and/or Horf (we only had 2 at any one time) for a #1 overall pick, #3 overall pick and the right to swap to get another #3 overall pick then tank for a year to start off with our own lottery pick and start building a solid but not great team to which we could add using those #1, #3 and #3 picks.

Problem was likely three-fold:

1. We refused to trade Sap and Horford who had significant value.
2. Dwight didn't have significant trade value (appears teams had to be paid to take him).
3. Billy King is no longer a GM so there is no one who looks dumb enough to repeat that Nets deal

We should keep looking for opportunities to pick up lottery picks from other teams in steals like that but you have to be willing to trade people and have to find a dupe willing to play along.

[KB21]

Yep.  Got to get those high lottery picks so we can continue to lose games.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Boston targeted players who were undervalued in the market and brought them in to win.

Schlenk targeted trash on the market and brought them in to lose.

Boston had no intention of winning the first season after they dumped KG, et al.  It was a tank job by design.  Empty stats Jeff Green was the team's leading scorer.  They had one player average 6 rebounds per game.  They sucked by design.

After tanking to get their own lottery pick they did what you are describing because they had a source of elite lottery picks coming in that was independent of their record.  Tip of the cap to Ainge because that was a masterful strategy if  you can get it to align like that.  If we could have found ourselves a Billy King like a Sacto GM who would give us their next 3 unprotected first round picks (one by swap) for Dwight and Dennis (probably would give a team more value than KG ever did after he was traded) I'm sure Schlenk would have pulled the trigger on that.  But who is dumb enough (King) or desperate enough (Russian owner) to repeat that scenario?

[AHF]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

Yep.  Got to get those high lottery picks so we can continue to lose games.

Still waiting on your path to a ring....

 

Roster Spots	KB Roster	Salary
1	Dwight Howard	$23,500,000
2	Paul Millsap	$31,269,231
3	Kent Bazemore	$16,910,113
4	Ersan Ilyasova	$6,000,000
5	Jordan Bell	$1,936,920
6	Juwon Evans	$815,615
7	Dennis Schröder	$15,500,000
8	Malcolm Delaney	$2,500,000
9	Taurean Waller-Prince	$2,422,560
10	DeAndre' Bembry	$1,567,200
11	Mike Muscala	$5,000,000
12	Thabo Sephalosha	$5,250,000
13
14
15
	Total:	$112,671,639

[KB21]

...and you will continue to wait, because my path was never about winning a championship this year.  It has always been about maintaining a winning environment this year and continuing to make a playoff push while building from that platform.  

I'd much rather be in the playoffs and draft in the 15-19 range over the next three years than bottom the team out and draft in the lottery for the next five.

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

...and you will continue to wait, because my path was never about winning a championship this year.  It has always been about maintaining a winning environment this year and continuing to make a playoff push while building from that platform.  

I'd much rather be in the playoffs and draft in the 15-19 range over the next three years than bottom the team out and draft in the lottery for the next five.

Give me your path to winning a ring in the next 3 years.  You claim any build should take less than 5 years.  The Hawks would be in year 2 of their Dennis / Dwight build so that gives you 3 more years of run to win your ring.

[High5]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

I have no inherent interest in seeing us lose games.  The only interest in that is to the extent that presents our best path to a high lottery pick.  I would have been thrilled to be able to trade two of Sap, Dwight and/or Horf (we only had 2 at any one time) for a #1 overall pick, #3 overall pick and the right to swap to get another #3 overall pick then tank for a year to start off with our own lottery pick and start building a solid but not great team to which we could add using those #1, #3 and #3 picks.

Problem was likely two-fold:

1. We refused to trade Sap and Horford who had significant value.
2. Dwight didn't have significant trade value (appears teams had to be paid to take him).
3. Billy King is no longer a GM so there is no one who looks dumb enough to repeat that Nets deal

We should keep looking for opportunities to pick up lottery picks from other teams in steals like that but you have to be willing to trade people and have to find a dupe willing to play along.

A trade that terrible will never happen again. At least not for many years. Sap/Horford also never had the allure of being HOF'ers and recent champions. 

[KB21]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidberri/2017/10/16/before-the-season-even-starts-there-is-so-little-hope-for-nba-lottery-teams/#523b9aec45bf

Quote

And how long does the losing continue? It's not uncommon for teams to keep coming back to the lottery year after year. For example, only two franchises ― Miami and San Antonio ― have not had a run of at least four consecutive years in the lottery since the 1985 draft. Nine franchises ― Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, the Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota, Sacramento, Vancouver-Memphis, and Washington ― have had at least one stretch in which the team made at least eight consecutive trips to the lottery.

 

[Royjr9]

24 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Boston targeted players who were undervalued in the market and brought them in to win.

Schlenk targeted trash on the market and brought them in to lose.

Lol. Illy was traded for bud bud and Wes. He just resigned him in the hopes he could flip him. Dedmon has been great but prolly isn’t a long term answer. Belli was acquired along with plumlee in the Dwight trade who was bought in by bud and Wes. An unhappy Dwight which is where that was headed was moved. Schlenk did the best he could with what he had which was nothing. 

[DS5]

17 hours ago, Diesel said:

So trading Dwight Howard & our 31st pick for Plumlee Belinelli and the 41st pick is making the best out of it??

Letting Millsap walk for Nothing is making the best out of it??

 

Schlenk has gotten all of you tankers to believe that making a bad trade (horrible trade) and making dumb moves is worth it because we're going to tank for a high pick.  However, when that high pick turns out to be not so good, you're going to look at the totality of the dumb moves we have made and say... "why did we do that?"    I'm just seeing all this early because I've seen it before. 

 

Ok, again I ask, what's the (hypothetical) alternative here? Dwight had very little value, and teams weren't offering much for Sap during his last season in Atlanta. I think mine and most of the people here "defending the tank" argument is that, given where the team was at the time Schlenk was hired, the most acceptable alternative was to sell and tank. 

[AHF]

Roster Spots	KB Roster	2017-18 Salary	2018-19 Salary	2019-2020	2020-2021
1	Dwight Howard	$23,500,000	$23,819,725	--	--
2	Paul Millsap	$31,269,231	$29,730,000	$30,500,000	--
3	Kent Bazemore	$16,910,113	$18,089,887	$19,269,662	--
4	Ersan Ilyasova	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	--
5	Jordan Bell	$1,936,920	$2,299,080	$2,686,560	$4,137,302
6	Juwon Evans	$815,615	$1,378,242	RFA	--
7	Dennis Schröder	$15,500,000	$15,500,000	$15,500,000	$15,500,000
8	Malcolm Delaney	$2,500,000	--	--	--
9	Taurean Waller-Prince	$2,422,560	$2,526,840	$3,481,986	RFA
10	DeAndre' Bembry	$1,567,200	$1,634,640	$2,603,982	RFA
11	Mike Muscala	$5,000,000	$5,000,000	$5,000,000	--
12	Thabo Sephalosha	$5,250,000	$5,250,000	--	--
13
14
15
	Salary Total:	$112,671,639	$111,228,414	$85,042,190	$19,637,302
	NBA Salary Cap:	$99,100,000	$101,000,000	$108,000,000

[High5]

Another thing, I don't think the success of this tank depends on us winning a championship in a set number of years or ever really. We were lightyears away from a championship before the decision to tank. It was never going to happen with our old, overpaid roster. So if we just get back to being a barely .500 team in 2-3 years except this time with a younger and more talented roster then we'll be in a much better spot. Obviously that's not the end goal, but the tank would have proven to be worthwhile in that scenario. 

[MaceCase]

58 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The lesson is quite obvious.  If they miss out, this will be what, 15 straight years in the lottery for them?

but, but, but, they'd have 45 wins! 

[Diesel]

9 hours ago, KB21 said:

On the contrary, Memphis is down because of injuries, and they will be adding a top pick to a team that has a healthy Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, two players who can show the young pups what it takes to win in the NBA. 

With Travis's plan, the Hawks young players will have....each other....and will learn how to win from God knows who.

We've seen this plan before. 

Childress, Smoove, Marvin, Shelden, & JJ.   It didn't go anywhere and when it did.. Childress, Shelden were gone.   Hawks fans think this will be a quick turn around.   I hate to be the bearer of bad news but more than Likely, none of the guys we have now or in this draft will see us when we finally turn the corner. 

 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, High5 said:

You're arguing things that don't matter. You also left out the part where KG changed his mind. The whole point of this discussion is whether or not drafting in the lottery is necessary to win a championship. The overwhelming evidence says yes. Boston and Cleveland are two of the many examples, regardless of how you view the circumstances.

As for potential packages, who knows? We're not trying to trade for a star player this offseason and we may never need to. We have 5 possible first round picks coming up in the next two drafts. We will have money to spend. Many things can happen in the next 3+ years. 

What I do know is staying the course so we could trade our mid-round pick along with Dwight, Sap, or THJ with their contracts would have gotten us nowhere. 

It's funny how you ignore all the other teams that draft in the lottery continuously and never sniff the championship.. some never sniff the playoffs. 

You say overwhelming evidence.  That's funny. 

Let's talk about overwhelming evidence that contributions vs.  coincidence. 

Just about every NBA team has a lottery pick on it.   So, therefore, if a team makes it to the finals and even wins the finals, they fall into that category that the team with a lottery pick won a championship.   Is that overwhelming evidence that contributes or is that a coincidence?

I say coincidence.   IN fact,  I started this thread by talking about all the times that we have had Lottery picks.  I think it was like 9 or 10.  Then I look at how many times we have won the championship during the lottery times (1985)... 0.  How many times have we sniffed being championship calibre? (maybe 1).  So what have all those years of lottery picks proven for us.  Lottery picks without a plan moves you to mediocrity. 

We also know that Young players don't win anything. 

So the teams that win championships are teams that establish their young players with Vets who are worth a damn.

here's our catch 22 that none of the tankers seem to get...

We have never been good at attracting free agents so the only way that we can get said Vets who are worth a damn is by trade.   However, we have a GM who has taken possible trade peices and traded them for Bubble gum.   Literally bubble gum and told us that the fresh taste in our mouth is how championships are won.   He has ZERO clue about FAcy in Atlanta.  Moreover, he has just given FAs more reason to not come here after taking our hometown player and trading him for said bubblegum.  After not offering our 3 time allstar a deal.   Not one offer.   What FA is going to look at us and say, they treat players the way I want to be treated?  What Vet is going to say.. I really want to play beside Baze and Dennis?

So expect us to be in the lottery this year and unless we pipe the knee, we will be back to the teens in our picks (if our lottery player is good) or back in the lottery next year (if he's not).   Either way.. 5 years before we reach upper mediocrity again. 

 

 

 

[Diesel]

The king's first run in Cleveland. 

I have given this post a title.   You ever wonder why Cleveland didn't win with Lebron the first time?  Was it that Lebron was no good?  No.  Was it that Lebron wasn't the top player in the NBA?  No.  In fact, Lebron was the top player in the league since what.. his third or 4th season.  The simple truth is tht it became very difficult to put players around Lebron.  It wasn't a money deal, it was a resource deal.  They were totally dependent on Free Agency because they had nothing to trade to get top Free agents.  Lebron being the best player in the game made it hard for Cleveland to be bad enough to get picks.  And they traded everything away trying to tank for Lebron. 

So even if we get the next Lebron.  Let's say we get Doncic and he's the next Lebron (he's not.. he's fool's gold). The only place he can lead us to is mediocrity.  Maybe he'll leave us and Silver will let us have 3 1st overall picks.. then he can come back and led us to a championship. 

[Royjr9]

50 minutes ago, Diesel said:

We've seen this plan before. 

Childress, Smoove, Marvin, Shelden, & JJ.   It didn't go anywhere and when it did.. Childress, Shelden were gone.   Hawks fans think this will be a quick turn around.   I hate to be the bearer of bad news but more than Likely, none of the guys we have now or in this draft will see us when we finally turn the corner. 

 

Childress and Sheldon were bad picks, so was acie law and countless others. Many of them were flipped for players that helped the hawks get to the winning side of things. Marvin wasn’t a bad pick he just should not have been picked by the hawks.  

[DBac]

It's not a coincidence that the best players in the NBA come from the top of the lottery. I've seen nothing but anecdotal evidence to refute that.

It's also not a coincidence only a few teams in this span won without a current or former MVP (at the time of winning of course). Only the Pistons (both Isiah and 4 allstar pistons).

It's not a coincidence that the latest an MVP over these 25 years was drafted was 15th (Steve Nash).

 

 

 

[Royjr9]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

It's funny how you ignore all the other teams that draft in the lottery continuously and never sniff the championship.. some never sniff the playoffs. 

You say overwhelming evidence.  That's funny. 

Let's talk about overwhelming evidence that contributions vs.  coincidence. 

Just about every NBA team has a lottery pick on it.   So, therefore, if a team makes it to the finals and even wins the finals, they fall into that category that the team with a lottery pick won a championship.   Is that overwhelming evidence that contributes or is that a coincidence?

I say coincidence.   IN fact,  I started this thread by talking about all the times that we have had Lottery picks.  I think it was like 9 or 10.  Then I look at how many times we have won the championship during the lottery times (1985)... 0.  How many times have we sniffed being championship calibre? (maybe 1).  So what have all those years of lottery picks proven for us.  Lottery picks without a plan moves you to mediocrity. 

We also know that Young players don't win anything. 

So the teams that win championships are teams that establish their young players with Vets who are worth a damn.

here's our catch 22 that none of the tankers seem to get...

We have never been good at attracting free agents so the only way that we can get said Vets who are worth a damn is by trade.   However, we have a GM who has taken possible trade peices and traded them for Bubble gum.   Literally bubble gum and told us that the fresh taste in our mouth is how championships are won.   He has ZERO clue about FAcy in Atlanta.  Moreover, he has just given FAs more reason to not come here after taking our hometown player and trading him for said bubblegum.  After not offering our 3 time allstar a deal.   Not one offer.   What FA is going to look at us and say, they treat players the way I want to be treated?  What Vet is going to say.. I really want to play beside Baze and Dennis?

So expect us to be in the lottery this year and unless we pipe the knee, we will be back to the teens in our picks (if our lottery player is good) or back in the lottery next year (if he's not).   Either way.. 5 years before we reach upper mediocrity again. 

 

 

 

 Nobody is saying a young team will win it or is the end all. This is the reason you here embid publicly calling for LeBron to join them. The point is you have to have good to almost borderline great players that either guys want to play with or that you can sell somebody on to offer you something for said max guy for.  Unfourtanetly you anti tankers are confusing the two.  The truth is this is the hawks own doing yes we whiff badly on players even when winning we would take marginal guys at best (Jenkins) instead of taking guys like Middleton and draymond. Knowing good full well how those players would probably turnout. And often over judge talent on our own end prolly wasn’t wise to sign Bazemore to the 17 mill and escalating contract or maybe after trading korver go ahead and ship Paul instead of saying no we are completing now. 

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by Royjr9

[Royjr9]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I have no inherent interest in seeing us lose games.  The only interest in that is to the extent that presents our best path to a high lottery pick.  I would have been thrilled to be able to trade two of Sap, Dwight and/or Horf (we only had 2 at any one time) for a #1 overall pick, #3 overall pick and the right to swap to get another #3 overall pick then tank for a year to start off with our own lottery pick and start building a solid but not great team to which we could add using those #1, #3 and #3 picks.

Problem was likely three-fold:

1. We refused to trade Sap and Horford who had significant value.
2. Dwight didn't have significant trade value (appears teams had to be paid to take him).
3. Billy King is no longer a GM so there is no one who looks dumb enough to repeat that Nets deal

We should keep looking for opportunities to pick up lottery picks from other teams in steals like that but you have to be willing to trade people and have to find a dupe willing to play along.

People won’t admit it but  #1 was especially the case for horford. If a guy tells you they plan to test free agency before the trade deadline you prolly should entertain trading them because at the end of the day they are looking out for the own best self interest. Which they very well should have. Milsap is trickier because he wanted to get paid and his age is very against him. But point remains trade em.