The Tank Thread

[ATLien_]

9 hours ago, Guard said:

Philly definitely is the best young team in the league. They’re on the OKC trajectory. Just a stud team with young players with high end talent. Imagine if they didn’t tank and kept the treadmill they had going.  

In my opinion what Philly did is just as much of an outlier as the Pistons championship team. First they got the player that should have gone first overall 3rd, Joel Embid, because of injury. This is not uncommon and we may see it this year with Porter Jr.

Second, they had the reigning rookie of the year the year Michael Carter Jr returning. 

Embid sits out the entire year allowing them to draft Okafor. If Embid is healthy this year it's very unlikely the finish bad enough to get the number 1 pick.

They get the #1 pick in a draft that just happens to have Ben Simmons. Then he gets hurt for a full year. Allowing them to get Fuletz. 

In the middle of all that they dupe Orlando into trading Dario Saric for Elfrid Payton who stayed in Europe 2 years and is now their 3rd best player. 

So if you can draft impact players without them playing for a year or two you can repeat what the 76er done,  but normally even when you don't draft superstars you become too good to draft in the top 3 4 times in 4 years and get the number 1 pick twice when you've only had it twice in your teams entire preceding history. Usually teams that get it wrong stay in the top 3 4 plus years not teams that draft Embid, Saric,  and Simmons. 

Perfect example the Hawks blew the Marvin Williams pick,  drafted Childress,  Josh Smith. We got the number 3 pick in Al Horford while winning 30 games then went on a playoff run that lasted a decade. My point being is we drafted lesser players and even they got too good to be picking in the top 3.

[Guard]

26 minutes ago, ATLien_ said:

In my opinion what Philly did is just as much of an outlier as the Pistons championship team. First they got the player that should have gone first overall 3rd, Joel Embid, because of injury. This is not uncommon and we may see it this year with Porter Jr.

Second, they had the reigning rookie of the year the year Michael Carter Jr returning. 

Embid sits out the entire year allowing them to draft Okafor. If Embid is healthy this year it's very unlikely the finish bad enough to get the number 1 pick.

They get the #1 pick in a draft that just happens to have Ben Simmons. Then he gets hurt for a full year. Allowing them to get Fuletz. 

In the middle of all that they dupe Orlando into trading Dario Saric for Elfrid Payton who stayed in Europe 2 years and is now their 3rd best player. 

So if you can draft impact players without them playing for a year or two you can repeat what the 76er done,  but normally even when you don't draft superstars you become too good to draft in the top 3 4 times in 4 years and get the number 1 pick twice when you've only had it twice in your teams entire preceding history. Usually teams that get it wrong stay in the top 3 4 plus years not teams that draft Embid, Saric,  and Simmons. 

Perfect example the Hawks blew the Marvin Williams pick,  drafted Childress,  Josh Smith. We got the number 3 pick in Al Horford while winning 30 games then went on a playoff run that lasted a decade. My point being is we drafted lesser players and even they got too good to be picking in the top 3.

Phillys success is a result of good talent evaluation more than anything. Sure, getting Embiid to fall due to injury is lucky. Same with Ben getting hurt allowing them to grab Fultz. But there is clearly competent talent evaluation going on in Philly. Being able to hit on players will always have teams in favorable positions. Finding Saric and Covington outside of the top ten wasn’t a fluke. Hell, they’ve got some oversees guys that could make some noise in the near future.

[ATLien_]

5 minutes ago, Guard said:

Phillys success is a result of good talent evaluation more than anything. Sure, getting Embiid to fall due to injury is lucky. Same with Ben getting hurt allowing them to grab Fultz. But there is clearly competent talent evaluation going on in Philly. Being able to hit on players will always have teams in favorable positions. Finding Saric and Covington outside of the top ten wasn’t a fluke. Hell, they’ve got some oversees guys that could make some noise in the near future.

The irony is they fired the guy that drafted them all.  Also they got alot wrong too, MCW, Noel, and Okafor. Will agree to disagree they drafted well but it's not easy to get that many picks while getting the picks right. Injuries played a huge role in that. 

It will be interesting to follow their window.  They can't pay all those players so they'll have to continue to prove they can draft well outside of the lottery. You can't spend 24m on JJ when these rookie deals come up. They have a bright future,  but people are acting like they a guaranteed a championship now. A lot will still have to go right. 

[Guard]

40 minutes ago, ATLien_ said:

The irony is they fired the guy that drafted them all.  Also they got alot wrong too, MCW, Noel, and Okafor. Will agree to disagree they drafted well but it's not easy to get that many picks while getting the picks right. Injuries played a huge role in that. 

It will be interesting to follow their window.  They can't pay all those players so they'll have to continue to prove they can draft well outside of the lottery. You can't spend 24m on JJ when these rookie deals come up. They have a bright future,  but people are acting like they a guaranteed a championship now. A lot will still have to go right. 

Philly definitely got a lot wrong but it’s impossible to hit every time. No team has done it. It’s why Hinkie loaded up on draft picks to give the Sixers multiple opportunities to make selections. 

The excitement is understandable. There is a possibility Philly never wins a championship but they’ve got ingredients to get the job done eventually. That’s all any team can ask for. 

[buckyboy2]

3 hours ago, ATLien_ said:

The irony is they fired the guy that drafted them all.  Also they got alot wrong too, MCW, Noel, and Okafor. Will agree to disagree they drafted well but it's not easy to get that many picks while getting the picks right. Injuries played a huge role in that. 

It will be interesting to follow their window.  They can't pay all those players so they'll have to continue to prove they can draft well outside of the lottery. You can't spend 24m on JJ when these rookie deals come up. They have a bright future,  but people are acting like they a guaranteed a championship now. A lot will still have to go right. 

Nobody said anything about them being guaranteed a Championship now. Someone said they werent the best young team in the NBA..THat was the argument...

[ATLien_]

1 hour ago, buckyboy2 said:

Nobody said anything about them being guaranteed a Championship now. Someone said they werent the best young team in the NBA..THat was the argument...

They are one of the best,  but let's see what they achieve before we go trying to replicate their model. There are a lot of young teams with talent. Some of them are in the west though and have a hard time making the playoffs. Minnesota being the prime example. They're the 8th seed in the west,  but I feel pretty good about them beating the Sixers in a series. 

Milwaukee still baffles me. I think their talent is superior to the 76ers but it's sub optimized by poor coaching. 

Ben Simmons is going to have to learn to shoot for Philly to realize their full potential. I was surprised Miami allowed him to be a facilitator. They should make him a scorer, and go under on everything. 

[KB21]

21 minutes ago, ATLien_ said:

They are one of the best,  but let's see what they achieve before we go trying to replicate their model. There are a lot of young teams with talent. Some of them are in the west though and have a hard time making the playoffs. Minnesota being the prime example. They're the 8th seed in the west,  but I feel pretty good about them beating the Sixers in a series. 

Milwaukee still baffles me. I think their talent is superior to the 76ers but it's sub optimized by poor coaching. 

Ben Simmons is going to have to learn to shoot for Philly to realize their full potential. I was surprised Miami allowed him to be a facilitator. They should make him a scorer, and go under on everything. 

They have some good individual players, but the roster as a whole is poorly constructed.  They have a non shooter that needs the ball to be effective, and they drafted another ball dominant player with shooting questions with the #1 overall pick this past year.  Their best player is made of glass.  

[AHF]

And yet 5th best record in the league with those guys barely old enough to drink.

[Buzzard]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

And yet 5th best record in the league with those guys barely old enough to drink.

But you have to admit they got lucky with the injuries. Imagine us being in he lottery two more years because of injuries to Horford and/or JJ. Sometimes the injuries crush you and sometimes they get you a Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz; or a Tim Duncan even.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Buzzard

[AHF]

48 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

But you have to admit they got lucky with the injuries. Imagine us being in he lottery two more years because of injuries to Horford and/or JJ. Sometimes the injuries crush you and sometimes they get you a Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz; or a Tim Duncan even.

Orlando got lucky with the ping pong balls and made the finals.  Cleveland got lucky with the ping pong balls made the finals then got lucky again and won a ring. GS got lucky that teams passed on some top talent.  The Spurs got lucky with both injuries and the ping pong balls.  OKC ended up in the finals and then picked the wrong piece to ditch.  Etc.

Most teams that make the finals and/or win rings got lucky somewhere along the way.  They put themselves in position to get lucky and then capitalize on the luck to varying levels of success.

[DBac]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Orlando got lucky with the ping pong balls and made the finals.  Cleveland got lucky with the ping pong balls made the finals then got lucky again and won a ring. GS got lucky that teams passed on some top talent.  The Spurs got lucky with both injuries and the ping pong balls.  OKC ended up in the finals and then picked the wrong piece to ditch.  Etc.

Most teams that make the finals and/or win rings got lucky somewhere along the way.  They put themselves in position to get lucky and then capitalize on the luck to varying levels of success.

People forget the Sixers actually fell in the lotto last year. But it was Sacramento who was rising, who Philly had the rights to a pickswap with. Then after that, they were able to trade up to 1 and get Fultz with the assets that they spent years stockpiling. Create your own luck.

[Buzzard]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Orlando got lucky with the ping pong balls and made the finals.  Cleveland got lucky with the ping pong balls made the finals then got lucky again and won a ring. GS got lucky that teams passed on some top talent.  The Spurs got lucky with both injuries and the ping pong balls.  OKC ended up in the finals and then picked the wrong piece to ditch.  Etc.

Most teams that make the finals and/or win rings got lucky somewhere along the way.  They put themselves in position to get lucky and then capitalize on the luck to varying levels of success.

You have to get lucky with who is in the draft also. How many times does a team have a opportunity to even pick three players in four successive drafts that have the potential of Embiid, Simmons, and Fultz? Embiid and Simmons could be like drafting Magic and Kareem by the same team one year apart.

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Buzzard said:

You have to get lucky with who is in the draft also. How many times does a team have a opportunity to even pick three players in four successive drafts that have the potential of Embiid, Simmons, and Fultz? Embiid and Simmons could be like drafting Magic and Kareem by the same team one year apart.

 

Just with those teams cited above:

Shaq followed by Webber/Penny

SA not two years in a row but David Robinson and Tim Duncan your two seasons at 1 instead of Kenyon Martin and Bargnani?  Nice luck

OKC with a run of Durant, Westbrook and Harden - nice options

Etc

[ATLien_]

1 hour ago, Buzzard said:

You have to get lucky with who is in the draft also. How many times does a team have a opportunity to even pick three players in four successive drafts that have the potential of Embiid, Simmons, and Fultz? Embiid and Simmons could be like drafting Magic and Kareem by the same team one year apart.

 

I agree with you the single most likely outcome in the NBA is you end up stuck in the middle because drafting all stars isn't good enough. You usually need a transcendent talent, which come along every 8-10 years and dominate the league. Imo there is no formula in the NBA, it's more art than science especially in the lottery era. People that are trying to follow a model that's not repeatable scare me. They'll throw out you need lottery picks, but I'm sure every team in the NBA has lottery talent on it. 

I would love to see the NBA reward the teams competing with a chance at these players. The teams just out and maybe the 7th / 8th seeds. We need more good teams in the NBA and as constructed you can't escape the middle. I'm tired of seeing a quarter of the teams winning less than 30 games. 

Crazy to think we win 30 games in 05/06 and picked 3rd getting Horford. We would have no chance at 3rd with they record this year. That's how bad the product has become and it's inflating the good teams records. 

[DBac]

I imagine we'd be calling the Bucks lucky if they took Embiid over Parker. Embiid was supposed to go 1 until the injury flag, they would've never got Giannis without intel from Drew. There's a little luck all over the NBA.

[KB21]

25 minutes ago, DBac said:

I imagine we'd be calling the Bucks lucky if they took Embiid over Parker. Embiid was supposed to go 1 until the injury flag, they would've never got Giannis without intel from Drew. There's a little luck all over the NBA.

I do not remember a single time during that draft or before it where Andrew Wiggins was not touted as the #1 overall pick.  He was being billed as the next LeBron James.  http://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-wiggins-next-lebron-2013-5

When I read that, I feel like I'm reading about Marvin Bagley/Michael Porter.  

[KB21]

In fact, Jabari Parker had more hype before that draft than Joel Embiid did:

....and some of you wonder why I do not buy into player hype.

 

[DBac]

13 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I do not remember a single time during that draft or before it where Andrew Wiggins was not touted as the #1 overall pick.  He was being billed as the next LeBron James.  http://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-wiggins-next-lebron-2013-5

When I read that, I feel like I'm reading about Marvin Bagley/Michael Porter.  

Hm? I remember reading about how the Cavs were heavily considering him at #1 but the injuries gave them pause.

 

[NBASupes]

13 minutes ago, DBac said:

Hm? I remember reading about how the Cavs were heavily considering him at #1 but the injuries gave them pause.

 

Embiid was #1 on EVERYONE's board. His injury was listed to be 14-16 months and that forced Cleveland and Milwaukee to pass on him. Philly was fully tanking so they had time to take the risk.

 

KB be talking a lot of shit. Jabari flaws was highly noted during that Duke season where we lost to Mercer. I don't even know why KB mentioned him. Sometimes KB just be trolling.  

[KB21]

49 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Embiid was #1 on EVERYONE's board. His injury was listed to be 14-16 months and that forced Cleveland and Milwaukee to pass on him. Philly was fully tanking so they had time to take the risk.

 

KB be talking a lot of shit. Jabari flaws was highly noted during that Duke season where we lost to Mercer. I don't even know why KB mentioned him. Sometimes KB just be trolling.  

This is a lie.  No one had Embiid as the #1 overall prospect, well, except for me.  Everyone, but me, had Wiggins as the top guy, and anyone that says otherwise is trust practicing revisionist history.  Of course, that draft was hyped up similar to this one as well, and I imagine the results will be similar.