There has been a change in Atlanta's win projections this coming season

[Peoriabird]

And this is by our friend Brad Rowland!  LOL!

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2018/7/20/17597216/atlanta-hawks-projection-2018-19-season-standings-nba-trae-young-john-collins

Hawks given optimistic 2018-19 projection from statistical model

52 comments

This seems rosy.

By Brad Rowland@BTRowland Jul 20, 2018, 8:08pm EDT

Share

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Though the NBA off-season isn’t over just yet, most teams in the league appear to be something close to “set” when it comes to the roster for the 2018-19 campaign. That could also be said for the Atlanta Hawks, who executed a prominent trade this week that sent Dennis Schröder to Oklahoma City (and Mike Muscala to Philadelphia) while clearing the decks for the future.

With that as the backdrop, Jack Maloney of CBS Sports took a glance at the 2018-19 season through the prism of SportsLine, a statistical model used for handicapping purposes. In short, the piece touches on (very) early win-loss projections for each and every team in the league and, at least for now, the model loves the Hawks.

Atlanta jumped from a 27.3-win projection in June to a 35.4-win mark as of July 20 and not even the writer could believe it.

How about that Hawks’ number? Thirty-five wins seems absurdly high for a team that will probably be starting Trae Young, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon.

For even the most optimistic Hawks fan, 35 wins seems pretty lofty at this juncture, particularly given the team’s reliance on youth and an outlook that isn’t solely focused on accumulating wins in the short term. Still, there is something to be said for statistical buy-in on players like John Collins and Taurean Prince, with a hat-tip toward what is likely a rosy outlook for a top-five pick in Trae Young and a potential bounce-back campaign from Jeremy Lin.

The model projects the Hawks as the No. 9 team in the Eastern Conference, just two wins shy of the Washington Wizards for the final playoff spot. Obviously, there is a long way to go before training camp even arrives but, if one was looking for a reason to get excited for a potentially overachieving bunch, this glance just might provide it.

Stay tuned.

[RedDawg#8]

That would suck lol

Miss the playoffs AND be at the bottom of the lottery.

I hope we either make the playoffs (I said hope not predict) or we land in the top 5 again. No need for in-between. 

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

That would suck lol

Miss the playoffs AND be at the bottom of the lottery.

I hope we either make the playoffs (I said hope not predict) or we land in the top 5 again. No need for in-between. 

You do realize that if the Hawks had the 5 worst record next year, it would mean that their current picks on the team aren't very good.

[hazer]

I’m sticking with 28 wins and 8th pick.

[yungsta]

Only scenario I believe we can be a 30+ win team.

If Trae Young can be an immediate net positive player when hes playing 30+ mins a game as a 19 year old

If John Collins can elevate his game to a fringe all star level

If Pierce proves he is a decent/good coach

 

[AHF]

5 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

You do realize that if the Hawks had the 5 worst record next year, it would mean that their current picks on the team aren't very good.

If Trae Young has a Steve Nash rookie year that will be enough to have the team’s win total well below that projection — especially if Lin has more health problems.

[hazer]

I just don’t see any path to 35 wins this season with how young this team is and a rookie coach. I’m an eternal optimist, think Trae will eventually be All NBA, Prince can be our Kawhi Lite, and Collins will be the 2nd coming of Amare. But 35 wins this year? MAYBE 30 if Lin is healthy and Trae is a quick study.

[AHF]

Lin and Trae will drive our win total, imo.  That projection seems to be high side for both.  

[Buzzard]

I will go with 20 if Trae has a so so rookie season and 30 if he is in the top 3 for ROY. I don't see 35 even in the weak East.

[Peoriabird]

The responses to this supposely up beat news kinda exposes the mind set of this fan base's . Any fan wanting this team to win would be elated by the news that analytics are projecting this team to exceed expectation. They would be elated that Schlenk nailed the draft and seemingly got the better of his fellow GM's in the 1018 draft but that's not what is happening.  Our fans appear to either be skeptical to disappointed with this new development. Is this the loser mentality @Kb21 has talked about? Does this fan base want to continue to lose to have yet another chance at their favorite savior in next year's draft. Do fans feel that teams should try to win championships or win lotteries with no room for anything in between? I was in favor of continuing the tank last year toward the end of the season when it was apparent the team could no longer compete but to continue a planned tank this year is a bit bizarre especially since many of the core players are already on the team. I hope the fan base reconsiders its position and root for this team to win games in the future.  It sucks rooting for a team who's fans get depressed when the team wins but celebrates loses.

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

The responses to this supposely up beat news kinda exposes the mind set of this fan base's . Any fan wanting this team to win would be elated by the news that analytics are projecting this team to exceed expectation. They would be elated that Schlenk nailed the draft and seemingly got the better of his fellow GM's in the 1018 draf but that's not what is happening.  Our fans appear to either be skeptical to disappointed with this new development. Is this the loser mentality @Kb21 has talked about? Does this fan base want to continue to lose to have yet another chance at their favorite savior in next year's draft. Do fans feel that teams should try to win championships or win lotteries with no room for anything in between? I was in favor of continuing the tank last year toward the end of the season when it was apparent the team could no longer compete but to continue a planned tank this year is a bit bizarre especially since many of the core players are already on the team. I hope the fan base reconsiders its position and root for this team to win games in the future.  It sucks rooting for a team who's fans get depressed when the team wins but celebrates loses.

This is exactly the losing mentality I have talked about.

Also, this same source projected the Hawks win total at 32.1 wins last year, so they have a significant flaw in their projection system.

When you have an even younger team than last year, and you have significantly downgraded at the head coach position, that doesn't really set up success for this year.

[Peoriabird]

13 minutes ago, KB21 said:

This is exactly the losing mentality I have talked about.

Also, this same source projected the Hawks win total at 32.1 wins last year, so they have a significant flaw in their projection system.

When you have an even younger team than last year, and you have significantly downgraded at the head coach position, that doesn't really set up success for this year.

Why not just say this gives me hope or I would like for this to happen rather than finding ways to discredit a positive report? The only conclusion I can come up with is the one's that discredits such a report don't want the team to win.

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Why not just say this gives me hope or I would like for this to happen rather than finding ways to discredit a positive report? The only conclusion I can come up with is the one's that discredits such a report don't want the team to win.

I want the team to win.  I just realize that this team winning is not possible, and if this team goes on a winning streak, Travis Schlenk is going to rearrange the roster to make sure the winning stops.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

15 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

The responses to this supposely up beat news kinda exposes the mind set of this fan base's . Any fan wanting this team to win would be elated by the news that analytics are projecting this team to exceed expectation. They would be elated that Schlenk nailed the draft and seemingly got the better of his fellow GM's in the 1018 draf but that's not what is happening.  Our fans appear to either be skeptical to disappointed with this new development. Is this the loser mentality @Kb21 has talked about? Does this fan base want to continue to lose to have yet another chance at their favorite savior in next year's draft. Do fans feel that teams should try to win championships or win lotteries with no room for anything in between? I was in favor of continuing the tank last year toward the end of the season when it was apparent the team could no longer compete but to continue a planned tank this year is a bit bizarre especially since many of the core players are already on the team. I hope the fan base reconsiders its position and root for this team to win games in the future.  It sucks rooting for a team who's fans get depressed when the team wins but celebrates loses.

I think it's the opposite.   I think most in the fan base can look at this team, and know good and well that they won't get close to 35 wins, unless something EXTRAORDINARY happens.

• Taurean Prince becoming Kawhi-lite . . . averaging 20 ppg -  3 asst - 7 rebs - and 2 stls
• Trae Young putting up Damon Stoudamire Per 36 minute rookie numbers as actual averages . . . 17 ppg - 9 asst - 4 rebs - 40% 3FG
• Kent Bazemore becoming a top 10 "3 and D" guy, while also shooting 40% 3FG

Or at the very least, we'll have to do what the Lakers did last year, in which 7 guys averaged in double figures, with Lonzo Ball being the assist trigger man.  They won 35 games, and kept the interest of the fan base, despite not making the playoffs.

Kuzma, Randle, and Ingram all averaged 16.1 ppg.   The combination of Thomas/Clarkson off the bench as a 6th man, gave them 15 ppg.  KCP and Brook Lopez were good for 13 - 14 ppg.  And Lonzo Ball, despite his struggles, still average 10 ppg - 7 asst - 6 rebs.  And they had Josh Hart, who was solid off the bench with 8 ppg.

Do the Hawks have a squad capable of duplicating what the Lakers did last season?

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

I want the team to win.  I just realize that this team winning is not possible, and if this team goes on a winning streak, Travis Schlenk is going to rearrange the roster to make sure the winning stops.

Then comment on that report appropriately when it comes out stating that Schlenk drafted and brought in a lot of talented players but has force them to lose but now isn't the time since that report does not exist. Your above statement is a loser mentality statement as well in case you haven't realized it yet.

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I think it's the opposite.   I think most in the fan base can look at this team, and know good and well that they won't get close to 35 wins, unless something EXTRAORDINARY happens.

• Taurean Prince becoming Kawhi-lite . . . averaging 20 ppg -  3 asst - 7 rebs - and 2 stls
• Trae Young putting up Damon Stoudamire Per 36 minute rookie numbers as actual averages . . . 17 ppg - 9 asst - 4 rebs - 40% 3FG
• Kent Bazemore becoming a top 10 "3 and D" guy, while also shooting 40% 3FG

Or at the very least, we'll have to do what the Lakers did last year, in which 7 guys averaged in double figures, with Lonzo Ball being the assist trigger man.  They won 35 games, and kept the interest of the fan base, despite not making the playoffs.

Kuzma, Randle, and Ingram all averaged 16.1 ppg.   The combination of Thomas/Clarkson off the bench as a 6th man, gave them 15 ppg.  KCP and Brook Lopez were good for 13 - 14 ppg.  And Lonzo Ball, despite his struggles, still average 10 ppg - 7 asst - 6 rebs.  And they had Josh Hart, who was solid off the bench with 8 ppg.

Do the Hawks have a squad capable of duplicating what the Lakers did last season?

So you tell me what is the point of arguing with a person who thinks that your wife or girlfriend is pretty then?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 minute ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I think it's the opposite.   I think most in the fan base can look at this team, and know good and well that they won't get close to 35 wins, unless something EXTRAORDINARY happens.

• Taurean Prince becoming Kawhi-lite . . . averaging 20 ppg -  3 asst - 7 rebs - and 2 stls
• Trae Young putting up Damon Stoudamire Per 36 minute rookie numbers as actual averages . . . 17 ppg - 9 asst - 4 rebs - 40% 3FG
• Kent Bazemore becoming a top 10 "3 and D" guy, while also shooting 40% 3FG

Or at the very least, we'll have to do what the Lakers did last year, in which 7 guys averaged in double figures, with Lonzo Ball being the assist trigger man.  They won 35 games, and kept the interest of the fan base, despite not making the playoffs.

Kuzma, Randle, and Ingram all averaged 16.1 ppg.   The combination of Thomas/Clarkson off the bench as a 6th man, gave them 15 ppg.  KCP and Brook Lopez were good for 13 - 14 ppg.  And Lonzo Ball, despite his struggles, still average 10 ppg - 7 asst - 6 rebs.  And they had Josh Hart, who was solid off the bench with 8 ppg.

Do the Hawks have a squad capable of duplicating what the Lakers did last season?

I forgot about Collins.  His Per 36 numbers of 16 pts - 11 rebs would also have to be achievable as actual per game stats.

So I'll say that if 3 of the 4 things happen, they have a shot at 35 wins, with the play of Taurean and Trae being the most important elements to that equation.

[AHF]

21 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Why not just say this gives me hope or I would like for this to happen rather than finding ways to discredit a positive report? The only conclusion I can come up with is the one's that discredits such a report don't want the team to win.

You seem very offended by people giving their honest and best good faith estimate of what this team will win this year.  For most of us, it isn’t about what we want as what we predict.  Not sure why being honest and frank is so threatening.  

We all want to see this team win big and bring a ring to Atlanta.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

 

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

You seem very offended by people giving their honest and best good faith estimate of what this team will win this year.  For most of us, it isn’t about what we want as what we predict.  Not sure why being honest and frank is so threatening.  

We all want to see this team win big and bring a ring to Atlanta.

And God knows that over the years, I've been much more optimistic for past Hawks teams that I thought were pretty good, only to be let down.

Even if these guys play somewhat well on offense, this team does not look good AT ALL on the defensive side of the ball.  That will be the main thing that keeps the win total down.

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Then comment on that report appropriately when it comes out stating that Schlenk drafted and brought in a lot of talented players but has force them to lose but now isn't the time since that report does not exist. Your above statement is a loser mentality statement as well in case you haven't realized ot yet.

 Now you are accusing KB of having a “loser mentality”?  Lol.  Is this because your predictions that the team would not even consider dealing Dennis turned out 100% wrong?

People are sharing their honest predictions.  KB wants the team in the playoffs and shares his honest assessment and is now someone with a “loser mentality”?  Others like me think the team plans to be in the lottery this year but my honest prediction becomes a “loser mentality”?  KB wants the team amazing this year.  I want them to be a contender for years ala the Astros and have said for the better part of two years that next year would be the logical time to go big but my wants have nothing to do with my honest prediction.  That is based merely on the current roster and the competitive landscape.  

Honest assessments will vary depending on assumptions, methodology, etc.  They have nothing to do with being a “winner” or “loser.”