Hawks Offseason Officially Starts!

[macdaddy]

14 hours ago, NBASupes said:

TS would be smart to do it if he knows John is playing hardball. At the end of the day, good PFs are a dime a dozen. 

If PFs are a dime a dozen why are we trading JC and wasting a top 5 pick on one?

[kg01]

10 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

If PFs are a dime a dozen why are we trading JC and wasting a top 5 pick on one?

[Buzzard]

37 minutes ago, capstone21 said:

Personally I would trade something like JC/pick for JJJ/their first

That really adds to our D with Clint and JJJ and also very solid three point shooting.  With JJJ not being a great rebounder is offset by Clint's arrival.   

The extra part of the pick is because Memphis has to spend to resign JC.  He would be a nice fit next to Ja Morant and that team already has solid D.

 

My biggest worry about JJJ is nagging injuries. 58 of 82 played last season. So far 54 of 65 this season. I do like him but he is not without risk.

[NBASupes]

39 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

If PFs are a dime a dozen why are we trading JC and wasting a top 5 pick on one?

That's a good question. Fair and reasonable one which I gave the answer to you all about thousand times. 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Even if Toppin matches Collins' production (not likely, let's be honest here Supes), he won't do it in year 1.  Maybe not even in year 2.  And, even if he does, he's a significantly worse defensive player.  Significantly worse, same age (basically, and yes that matters).

So that basically means we're wasting another year.  Probably wasting 2 years getting him up to where Collins is right now.

Why?  Even if he turns into Stoudamire, and not Derrick Williams/Thomas Robinson, what are we as a team by then?

If I'm Trae, my eyes start wandering the second you trade Collins for a start-over rookie.

See, I get all the analytics and nimbers.  What you're ignoring is (1) the reality of the situation we're in and (2) that these dudes aren't robots.  You will never, NEVER, be able to quantify which guys show up to work, which guys are just happy to have 'made it', which guys get caught up in the life, etc., etc., etc.

I respect the work that you do.  I just think you have a blindspot in that regard.

Sign Millsap to be the starter year 1. He's a lot more impactful than John. That's a great start. 

Obi doesn't have to start year 1. Why put that on any rookie, we saw the results in the last two seasons. None of them did good till the 2nd half of the year. Even if Obi is ready, we are trying to win now. We need VETS.

He will be more Webber than Amare to me. He can really pass it and his offensive versatility is tremendous for PPP. We would have two elite offensive players who have elite playmaking for position. Add that Toppin also has movement specialist skills even if not to the degree of Collins, its could be a lot more effective considering all he does. The best comparison I've heard for him is a smaller PF version of KAT. That's a 7 WAR player. Trae is currently that as well. That has massive value long term.

That puts us in Golden State territory. Add Cam Reddish likely growth as well as Hunter getting comfortable at the 3, we could have something extremely special brewing.

1. I am not ignoring shit! You are!

2. I know these dudes aren't robots which is why I know we need to make the best decisions possible as bad moves will kill our chances before we ever get started.

I don't have a blindspot to shit. I do more research and studies than anyone else on this board on this shit. I would love to have a conversation on this because I don't think my words are coming across clearly here. I know they aren't. 

[macdaddy]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

That's a good question. Fair and reasonable one which I gave the answer to you all about thousand times. 

Well we better get used to rehashing around here since there's no hawks anything for a while.   

[NBASupes]

8 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Well we better get used to rehashing around here since there's no hawks anything for a while.   

To answer your original question, I wrongfully said PF are a dime a dozen which is true is useless. What I meant is just good PFs are a dime a dozen. Great ones aren't a dime a dozen. Even if they are great on only one end like Draymond or someone like prime Blake Griffin, those are hard to find and worth a lot. 

John is valuable. He's not for cheap, he will cost you. 

That said, a top 5 pick is good value trade wise. Now, Atlanta could turn it down and wait till next offseason to resign him but that comes with a lot of risk. I've been on record that I would rather have John at least for now than trade him. 60/40. 

[AHF]

27 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Sign Millsap to be the starter year 1. He's a lot more impactful than John. That's a great start. 

Obi doesn't have to start year 1. Why put that on any rookie, we saw the results in the last two seasons. None of them did good till the 2nd half of the year. Even if Obi is ready, we are trying to win now. We need VETS.

He will be more Webber than Amare to me. He can really pass it and his offensive versatility is tremendous for PPP. We would have two elite offensive players who have elite playmaking for position. Add that Toppin also has movement specialist skills even if not to the degree of Collins, its could be a lot more effective considering all he does. The best comparison I've heard for him is a smaller PF version of KAT. That's a 7 WAR player. Trae is currently that as well. That has massive value long term.

That puts us in Golden State territory. Add Cam Reddish likely growth as well as Hunter getting comfortable at the 3, we could have something extremely special brewing.

1. I am not ignoring shit! You are!

2. I know these dudes aren't robots which is why I know we need to make the best decisions possible as bad moves will kill our chances before we ever get started.

I don't have a blindspot to shit. I do more research and studies than anyone else on this board on this shit. I would love to have a conversation on this because I don't think my words are coming across clearly here. I know they aren't. 

You put in more work on this than me.  But my reaction is that if you have a PF version of KAT or Webber2.0 that guy is an absolute no-brainer #1 overall pick.  He should stand out from the rest of the pack like Tim Duncan from the rest of his draft class.  Why do you think scouts don't see it that way?

[macdaddy]

I don't think JC is getting a max contract.   I think we can sign him to an expensive but decent deal.

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

You put in more work on this than me.  But my reaction is that if you have a PF version of KAT or Webber2.0 that guy is an absolute no-brainer #1 overall pick.  He should stand out from the rest of the pack like Tim Duncan from the rest of his draft class.  Why do you think scouts don't see it that way?

He honestly should be if we are just talking offense but you take into account age, potential, his low defensive ceiling, he takes a knock. He's the same age as John Collins even if his development track is obviously different due to their physical maturation. Most scouts I've talk to do see it offensively. They just have a lot of reservations. As one scout told me, I want to see him in a workout. I know he's massively improved but I want to be sure. A lot of people don't want to trust their eyes but I keep saying, look at the full games. When you watch the full games, Toppin is a complete hooper. Watch his full tape and Al Horford at Florida. It's the same system on offense. Watch Toppin run the system. It's BEAUTIFUL. We know there aren't many if any bigs like this. He just has "it"! 

Just look at this AHF

 

 

[NBASupes]

AHF, watch the full game of him against Kansas. Look how he impacts the game without even touching the ball. Just watch him. He has that Horford factor. I am telling you, this guy offensively is IT! 

[kg01]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

AHF, watch the full game of him against Kansas. Look how he impacts the game without even touching the ball. Just watch him. He has that Horford factor. I am telling you, this guy offensively is IT! 

This explains so much.

I'm tappin' out.  This is no longer a rational discussion.

[NBASupes]

Just now, kg01 said:

This explains so much.

I'm tappin' out.  This is no longer a rational discussion.

Stop it! I am not in any stretch comparing him to Al Horford and everyone knows how I feel about Horford. Everyone. I am saying, he knows he to play and play fast mentally. He knows how to make an impact without the rock. He's always thinking the game in an impactful way. That's the Horford factor I call it. That's special even if most of the average fans can't notice it. I can.

[macdaddy]

I'll continue to be that guy who comes in late and asks a bunch of questions but we should have a shot at Toppin anyway without trading for the pick right?   We need another PF in addition to Collins.  I like overflow of talent while it's cheap.

[kg01]

11 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Stop it! I am not in any stretch comparing him to Al Horford and everyone knows how I feel about Horford. Everyone. I am saying, he knows he to play and play fast mentally. He knows how to make an impact without the rock. He's always thinking the game in an impactful way. That's the Horford factor I call it. That's special even if most of the average fans can't notice it. I can.

Toppin is a good player, I think.  What made/makes Horford an effective player is that he plays with high IQ on both ends.

Toppin doesn't play defense, at all.  That caps his impact.  You explained that part of the reason you're low on Collins is because, despite his offensive numbers, his poor defense at the 4 makes him expendable.

How does that not apply to Toppin?

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

AHF, watch the full game of him against Kansas. Look how he impacts the game without even touching the ball. Just watch him. He has that Horford factor. I am telling you, this guy offensively is IT! 

If he is Webber 2.0 or KAT-PF-Version, he should be the #1 pick in the draft without any debate.  Both of those guys were clear #1s in better drafts than this.  For example, Penny Hardaway 2.0 would easily be the #1 pick in this draft if he was part of this class and he went after Webber.

My question is if he is that good, why aren't the scouts recognizing it?  It should be glaringly obvious is he is on that level.

[NBASupes]

15 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Toppin is a good player, I think.  What made/makes Horford an effective player is that he plays with high IQ on both ends.

Toppin doesn't play defense, at all.  That caps his impact.  You explained that part of the reason you're low on Collins is because, despite his offensive numbers, his poor defense at the 4 makes him expendable.

How does that not apply to Toppin?

Listen to me! Stop saying what you think. I've watched every single game he's played multiple times this season. I am telling you what he is. If I didn't, I wouldn't be going so hard for him in general. I am not even speaking to him as a prospect for the Hawks, but for anyone. He can be a 25ppg anywhere. Not just with Trae Young. 

There is a lot of things that make Horford special: 

He's been the main piece behind two #1 seeds.
His impact on the game is always beyond numbers and ALWAYS appears on the game tape.
His movement both on offense and defense, ability to break from the play to the right read like a top tier NFL route runner.
His defensive awareness.
His defensive movement with his quick hands.
His elite agility off of the ball.
His screen setting ability, especially off script screens which are backdoor cuts, flares, pin down curls, at the ability to finish while making an elite decision off of that.
His intangibles are as good as anyone I've ever seen in the NBA ever.
His ability to run all sets of offenses. You can put him in an isotype offense, movement type offense, grit n' grind type of offense, uptempo, midtempo, slow tempo, perimeter-centric, post-centric, screen-centric, PnR centric offense.
His ability to defend multiple positions and not just protect one player on the court but ALL players on the court on defense.
His ability to blend into his teammates' strengths which further helps them in terms of development and impact.
We have seen this with almost every player who's played with Horford.

 

As for Toppin, he's clearly not Al Horford. Not even close physically. Horford was a tweener who is now the face of the modern NBA 5 via Steve Kerr and many experts. Horford was 245 out of UF. He has tremendous hips, a very functional athlete on defense even if he's robotic on offense. He has good lateral quickness for a big not to mention the out of this world BBIQ on both ends. 

 

Toppin has a few similarities as college players. Both have a tremendous shooting touch with suspect shooting forms. Both are elite thinkers off the ball and playmakers with or without the rock offensively. Both can run a lot of versatility actions on offense. Both have a great feel defensively in space as well as movement on both ends. Obviously Toppin lacks Horford's defensive tools, strength, and talent on that end but has quicker hands and due to his lack of physical talent defensively, he's more of a risk taker on defense than Al is who has it all from a tweener stance. 

Al and Toppin both have the same potential but Al only had really one swing skill which was shooting. Toppin has three of them. Both are what I consider impact types. I like these types more than the stat based types. We drafted an impact type in Hunter last year. I loved that pick and still do even if I knew it would take some time. Toppin's swing skills is what can make him something special but Al is extremely balanced. Toppin is extremely offensive based. For me, I would rather Al Horford but Toppin could have a lot more impact and I would swing his way more likely if he hits his swings. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

If he is Webber 2.0 or KAT-PF-Version, he should be the #1 pick in the draft without any debate.  Both of those guys were clear #1s in better drafts than this.  For example, Penny Hardaway 2.0 would easily be the #1 pick in this draft if he was part of this class and he went after Webber.

My question is if he is that good, why aren't the scouts recognizing it?  It should be glaringly obvious is he is on that level.

Steph Curry was a 8.5 on offense out of Davidson and no one was like, #1 overall pick without any debate. Fast forward to 2020. Yeah, I know.  He wasn't even the first or second PG selected in his own class. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

Just now, NBASupes said:

Steph Curry was a 8.5 on offense out of Davidson and no one was like, #1 overall pick without any debate. Fast forward to 2020. Yeah, I know.  He wasn't even the first or second PG selected in his own class. 

That means he isn't close as a college prospect to Webber or KAT.

The scouts underrated Curry.  They missed on him.  The scouts were correct on Horford, in contrast.  

What I'm hearing is that you believe the scouts are similarly missing on Toppin.

[NBASupes]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

That means he isn't close as a college prospect to Webber or KAT.

The scouts underrated Curry.  They missed on him.  The scouts were correct on Horford, in contrast.  

What I'm hearing is that you believe the scouts are similarly missing on Toppin.

I don't believe scouts are missing on him. They see it too. Everyone with sense sees it. They are just having problems due to needing correct data. People got him listed at 6'9 220 when I am hearing he's 6'9.5 without shoes and 230 right now. These things make substantial differences in most guys scout. Look at Clarke for example. When he weighed 208 at 6'8. A lot of people dropped him out of their scout. Some coaching, not going to name names believed he might be a freak athlete for WCC but not for the NBA. LOL, boy was he wrong. That was a NBA head coach who said that. No lie. 

People overthinking it. Just watch the tape. It's not that hard. The issue is, everyone is scared because he's not atypical. He's not 19. He's not the ideal size as listed by his 2018 summer measurements even if he clearly this bigger during the season. The question I got was, is he really this good? Even if the comp was decent on average. He's a late bloomer and as one of my guys in the scouting community said, who's like him: Wesley Johnson? Tyrus Thomas? Kyle Kuzma? Who's the older aged bigger sized late bloomer like him? I told him, look at the 80s, you would see a lot more late bloomers who blossomed later in their college days like Pippen, Rodman, Robinson, etc. He laughed but I said, maybe you should throw away your charts for Toppin. He's worth it. I don't know if he did it or not but I think I did a good job of convincing him. 

 

Most scouts felt like they didn't miss on Curry. He just got a lot better under Mark Jackson and Kerr unlocked another level of him and Draymond Green.

Edited June 8, 2020 by NBASupes