Next person who calls De'Andre Hunter a PF gets my foot in their back side.

[Peoriabird]

Here is another interesting tip bit.  There were 4 players 5 if you count Teague who played under both Bud and LP.  Every player had a better Drtg under Bud vs LP.  Can someone explain that to me?

Player                                                   Drtg under Bud                                           Drtg under LP

John Collins                                          108                                                           115/112

D. Bembry                                             108/109                                                    112/112

T Prince                                                 105/111                                                     115

D Dedmon                                             107                                                            109/107

J Teague                                               109/104/104                                              117

[Peoriabird]

5 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Here is another interesting tip bit.  There were 4 players 5 if you count Teague who played under both Bud and LP.  Every player had a better Drtg under Bud vs LP.  Can someone explain that to me?

Player                                                   Drtg under Bud                                           Drtg under LP

John Collins                                          108                                                           115/112

D. Bembry                                             108/109                                                    112/112

T Prince                                                 105/111                                                     115

D Dedmon                                             107                                                            109/107

J Teague                                               109/104/104                                              117

So is it really the player only @High5?

[MaceCase]

39 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Basketball is really about the right mesh of skillsets and I agree that it doesn't matter where they come from as long as they are represented.

exactly, and this is easier to comprehend once people divorce themselves from the archaic idea that a player’s height determines their specific position and their specific position determines their primary skillset. 

[AHF]

36 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

In Fairness to Hunter, He did play out of position a lot.  But you conveniently left out

Vince Carter Drtg 116 

Teague 117

Crabbe 117

Treveon Graham 117

Evan Turner 115 

D. Jones  113

J Parker  113

to try to prove your point but hey, I guess that is what you do.

Since this is a struggle for you let me see if I can make two points clear:

(1) When you combine a team of bad veteran defenders with very young and inexperienced players it makes for a team that doesn't have the tools to be a great defense.  That is exactly what we are talking about with judging LP by the defensive performance of this team.  It seems you have come around to this fact as well.  So I'm happy we seem to be on the same page on this.  I'm hoping we are now on the same page that LP had a roster that ended up playing most of their minutes with first and second year players and then had bad defensive vets that were added to the roster for tanking reasons rather than to fit the coach's system, etc. on top of that which translates to a bad defensive team pretty much irrespective of what a coach does.

(2) OLDER PLAYERS CAN BE BAD DEFENDERS.  Let me repeat that.  OLDER PLAYERS CAN BE BAD DEFENDERS.  Showing me that there are bad defenders among vets doesn't in any way mean that guys in their first year or two in the league don't generally struggle.  I am not making the case that there is a direct correlation between age and defensive ability and for that reason I am not discussing our weak defending vets.  It isn't because I am selectively trying to argue that Damion Jones or Jeff Teague or Jabari Parker are good defenders.  We know they are garbage.  I made that point at the outset and I thought it was a given.  When I am arguing that our young guys in their first and second years had struggles on defense, there is zero reason to bring up veterans at all whether they are great defenders or terrible ones.  It is irrelevant.

The thing is that veterans are typically better defenders with some experience than they were with no experience.  So putting together a competent defense with a bunch of vets (especially when hand picked for the coach's system) is much easier than guys in their first and second year. 

I'm sure it wouldn't be that hard to find an older team that was absolutely abysmal on defense.  That would offer nothing to the discussion of whether exceptionally young teams struggle.  My point is you never find a team built around extremely young players that is among the best defenses in the league (or at least I'm not aware of any such team).  You mentioning a league average defense that fit that description was a great exception to that general trend. 

My bigger point was that when you look at the particulars of our roster (including those terrible vets you mention) it becomes clear that the defensive struggles would have been there regardless of whether Pops was coaching this team or Thibs or anyone else.  

That doesn't mean that LP is a great coach or that he actually can construct a good defense.  He has to prove that this year.  But nobody should be expected to construct a good defense when they don't have the materials.

It is like giving someone wet tissue paper and wondering why they didn't build an effective bridge.  Give them some rock and metal and let them go to work.  If they can't construct a defense with a healthy roster that isn't age weighted to an extremely young age where that roster has some competent veteran defenders, then the coach is the problem.

We may well be in agreement that LP failed this test this season when the team is done.  Or maybe the Hawks move to the middle of the pack or so which would be more becoming of a team with a roster like we'll have this year and maybe the coach isn't so incompetent.  We'll have to wait and see.  

[AHF]

40 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Here is another interesting tip bit.  There were 4 players 5 if you count Teague who played under both Bud and LP.  Every player had a better Drtg under Bud vs LP.  Can someone explain that to me?

Player                                                   Drtg under Bud                                           Drtg under LP

John Collins                                          108                                                           115/112

D. Bembry                                             108/109                                                    112/112

T Prince                                                 105/111                                                     115

D Dedmon                                             107                                                            109/107

J Teague                                               109/104/104                                              117

With all these guys, I'd a big factor is playing with worse teammates under LP than they did under Bud.  Since the team functioned better with Bud vet laden lineup, you'd expect those numbers to be better.

JC in particular was an improved defender under LP relative to what he did under Bud but was also asked to take on more challenging assignments.  

Dedmon was largely the same by this metric.

Teague lost a few steps after leaving Atlanta at age 27 and returning as the washed up version of himself we saw last season.

I also reserve the very real possibility that Bud is just a better coach than LP.  I just don't think Bud would do nearly as well with our roster last year relative to his roster in any year he was in Atlanta for the reasons we have discussed.  Every roster he actually coached here was much better equipped to excel on defense as compared to our 2019-20 roster.  We'll be better able to compare LP vs Bud by looking at the numbers from this season since this roster is much more comparable to the ones that Bud had over his years in Atlanta.  (I'd say this one is more tilted to offense than his teams but this roster is worse than Bud's best squad and better than his worst so overall in the pack.)

[Peoriabird]

20 minutes ago, AHF said:

We may well be in agreement that LP failed this test this season when the team is done.  Or maybe the Hawks move to the middle of the pack or so which would be more becoming of a team with a roster like we'll have this year and maybe the coach isn't so incompetent.  We'll have to wait and see.  

I know you want to believe in LP/Schlenk because at this point we have no other choice but I cannot ignore what our eyes have seen and what the stats have shown.  I am as hopeful as you are that I am dead wrong but I fear that I am not.  This is the same approach I took to the Falcon's season thinking that Dan Quinn could learn to be a better coach than what he had displayed but sadly it just became another wasted season for the Falcon unnecessarily.  I just don't want the Hawks to suffer the same fate.

[Peoriabird]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

With all these guys, I'd a big factor is playing with worse teammates under LP than they did under Bud.  Since the team functioned better with Bud vet laden lineup, you'd expect those numbers to be better.

JC in particular was an improved defender under LP relative to what he did under Bud but was also asked to take on more challenging assignments. 

Dedmon was largely the same by this metric.

Teague lost a few steps after leaving Atlanta at age 27 and returning as the washed up version of himself we saw last season.

I also reserve the very real possibility that Bud is just a better coach than LP.  I just don't think Bud would do nearly as well with our roster last year relative to his roster in any year he was in Atlanta for the reasons we have discussed.  Every roster he actually coached here was much better equipped to excel on defense as compared to our 2019-20 roster.  We'll be better able to compare LP vs Bud by looking at the numbers from this season since this roster is much more comparable to the ones that Bud had over his years in Atlanta.  (I'd say this one is more tilted to offense than his teams but this roster is worse than Bud's best squad and better than his worst so overall in the pack.)

I'm sorry... Which Metric showed that JC was better under LP?  Plus who were those teammates in 2017 that John, Prince and Bembry better in 2017 again?

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

I know you want to believe in LP/Schlenk because at this point we have no other choice but I cannot ignore what our eyes have seen and what the stats have shown.  I am as hopeful as you are that I am dead wrong but I fear that I am not.  This is the same approach I took to the Falcon's season think that Dan Quinn could learn to be a better coach than what he had displayed but sadly it just became another wasted season for the Falcon unnecessarily.  I just don't want the Hawks to suffer the same fate.

We definitely agree on that.  If LP doesn't vastly improve this team's performance on both ends of the floor this season then it will be a wasted year for the squad.  

I'm sold on Schlenk at this point.  Big fan of what he has accomplished.  

I'm not sold on LP at all.  He needs to prove it.  I'm just not going to bash him for things that I think were not within his control.  This year's roster was built to tank for one last year and then the vets were significantly worse than TS expected.  That is a roster that is going to fail, particularly when you add JC's suspension, injuries, etc. on to the pile.

LP is in his sink or swim season.  If he doesn't rise to the occasion, it is a guarantee that we'll start next year with a different coach. (He is also at that stage of a rebuild where it can't be ruled out that a better coach won't be brought in anyway ala Phil Jackson taking over for Doug Collins or Pat Riley taking over for Paul Westhead.)

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I'm sorry... Which Metric showed that JC was better under LP?  Plus who were those teammates in 2017 that John, Prince and Bembry better in 2017 again?

We've already discussed the handpicked veterans that were the primary minutes guys in 2017.

The DRtg metric clearly does not show that JC was a better defender under LP other so on that I'm purely using the illusive "eye test."  The best you can say with that is JC was about 2 points better than the team average last year and in his season under Bud and Drtg is a team driven stat. 

Under the eye test, I think both he and Trae showed improvement on the defensive side of the floor last season.  For JC, since he was asked to do less and was a role player on a veteran Bud defense I would expect better numbers than as the leading (sometimes only competent) member of the frontcourt with very inexperienced teammates last year.

Again, this year will be a better comparison point.

[Gray Mule]

I agree with both of you.  Bud is a more experienced coach and, as any player is expected to improve with age, we can say the same for any coach.  

Hawks team last season consisted of many young, inexperienced youth and over the hill veterans.  Hawks took on these unwanted, high priced players on their final year contract in order to gain assets.

Aah, what a difference a season makes.  Our youth have a valuable year's experience.  Gone are those overpriced veterans.  Added really talented players, expected to lift us up.

If Lloyd Pierce can't field a winning team, now that he has the proper players to work with, it's by, by.  But, with these new players, his more experienced youth and his own extra year's experience, we expect greatness!

[Peoriabird]

On 12/1/2020 at 2:21 PM, AHF said:

I'm not sold on LP at all.  He needs to prove it.  I'm just not going to bash him for things that I think were not within his control. 

But yet you defend him which is weird to me.  We all know that he isn't a special talent and to expect him to become this championship quality coach or even hope that he becomes it is just plain weird. It should be obvious to everyone that he is Nick Nurse...He is more of a Dan Quinn/Brian Snictker type coach in that if you have Lebron and Kawhi on your team you might win the conference and then blow an insurmountable lead when it counts.

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

I'm purely using the illusive "eye test." 

I hate to do this to you

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

  Hawks team last season consisted of many young, inexperienced youth and over the hill veterans. 

If last year was the exception to the rule then I could somewhat agree with you but his defense was just as bad the year before in fact the statistics were almost exactly the same.  He has made all of Bud players worse on defense and I can probably extend that to every other player on the team coached by someone else.  You can tell yourself until you are blue in the face not to believe your lying eyes but this is how the Quinns of the world coach in Atlanta for 6 year or Mike Smith for 8 years.

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I hate to do this to you

I've never argued that Drtg is a great individual metric (it is primarily a team metric as previously noted above) but if acting like I'm changing the target makes you feel good feel free to do so.  

I don't feel remotely ashamed to say I watched JC and he was better on defense last season.  FWIW, you'll see that opinion expressed in no lack of articles on him as well (including today's AJC article noting his improvement as a defender).

If you think he has actually gotten worse as a defender under LP, you are free to hold to that opinion.

[Peoriabird]

Just now, AHF said:

I've never argued that Drtg is a great individual metric (it is primarily a team metric as added above)

You used it to make your point about young players..Good Grief

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

 I don't feel remotely ashamed to say I watched JC and he was better on defense last season.  FWIW, you'll see that opinion expressed in no lack of articles on him as well (including today's AJC article noting his improvement as a defender).

If you think he has actually gotten worse as a defender under LP, you are free to hold to that opinion.

He got worse his 1st year under LP and got better during his 2nd year under LP compared to his 1st year under Pierce but his best year was under Bud during his rookie season something you can't accept because is destroys your theory the Rookie stink at defense and get better with more experience.

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

You used it to make your point about young players..Good Grief

Of course I did.  I used it to point out that on our roster our young guys ranked among the worst on the team.  That doesn't mean I'd compare Reddish's number to someone from a different team with the same degree of meaningfulness.  

All our guys played with the same group of teammates.  Seeing how the team ranked as a whole and how players in the same environment ranked relative to each other is a good use of this stat.  Comparing the individual numbers for players on different teams or in different years is not nearly as useful.  Like saying the Celtics became a significantly better offensive team from 2014-15 to 2019-20 is useful.  Saying they were a bit worse on defense over that same period of time can be useful as their Drtg went from 104.5 to 107.  But saying Marcus Smart was a better defender his first two years in the league (when he was playing a more limited role on a better defensive team) because he had a 104 and 103 Drtg when his team had a 104.5 and 103.6 rating) compared to a 107 Drtg his last two seasons (when his team had 107.8 and 107 ratings) is not very useful, imo.  This is both because of the change in roster composition and overall team defense as well as because of his personal change in role.

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

Of course I did.  I used it to point out that on our roster our young guys ranked among the worst on the team.  That doesn't mean I'd compare Reddish's number to someone from a different team with the same degree of meaningfulness.  

All our guys played with the same group of teammates.  Seeing how the team ranked as a whole and how players in the same environment ranked relative to each other is a good use of this stat.  Comparing the individual numbers for players on different teams or in different years is not nearly as useful.  Like saying the Celtics became a significantly better offensive team from 2014-15 to 2019-20 is useful.  Saying they were a bit worse on defense over that same period of time can be useful as their Drtg went from 104.5 to 107.  But saying Marcus Smart was a better defender his first two years in the league (when he was playing a more limited role on a better defensive team) because he had a 104 and 103 Drtg when his team had a 104.5 and 103.6 rating) compared to a 107 Drtg his last two seasons (when his team had 107.8 and 107 ratings) is not very useful, imo.  This is both because of the change in roster composition and overall team defense as well as because of his personal change in role.

So you are saying that the '17 team had better players on it than the '18 and '19 and this is why the same players from those teams had worse Drtg under Pierce...I'm trying best to follow you.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So you are saying that the '17 team had better players on it than the '18 and '19 and this is why the same players from those teams had worse Drtg under Pierce...I'm trying best to follow you.

You should be looking at the team number first and foremost.  It measures the total team performance.  Individual player numbers tend to track with overall team performance.  This makes comparing team performance apples to apples but comparing individual performance less meaningful.  Where individual performance is most meaningful is in relation to the team's overall rating.  

So where the overall 2017-18 team posted a 110.6 Drtg, you would expect most players who were on the roster for the majority of the season to be within a couple points of that.  In fact, we find that the individual defensive ratings of people who played the full season range from 107 to 114 for a +/- of 3 to 4 points.

The overall 2019-20 team posted a Drtg of 114.8.  The range for full year players* on this team was 112 to 117 which is consistent with that generaly +/- of 3 to 4 points.

So we can directly compare the 110.6 to 114.8 and conclude that the 2017-18 team was much better.  (I think we agree on this and were just exploring why.)  Within those rosters, we can see that the people at the top end of the range were the worst defenders and those at the bottom of the range were the best defenders.  

It gets more and more tenuous when you start comparing individual Drtg numbers for players in different seasons or on different teams because the number is so context dependent.  See the example of Marcus Smart above where his numbers were right on par with the team's overall number.  I do not conclude from this that he got worse because he is on par with the team's overall number in both cases.  I do conclude that team's defense got worse over that same period.

 

 

(* - Note that I did not include Dedmon here because he only played 10 games with the team during one of the few stretches were our key players were all available.  For that reason, you can see the team's improved defense in that stretch is not representative of the overall numbers for the season.  His numbers were not dragged down during the VC/Parker, etc. lineups like most of the rest of the crew and are therefore a statistical outlier due to the small sample size.)

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

You should be looking at the team number first and foremost.  It measures the total team performance.  Individual player numbers tend to track with overall team performance.  This makes comparing team performance apples to apples but comparing individual performance less meaningful.  Where individual performance is most meaningful is in relation to the team's overall rating.  

So where the overall 2017-18 team posted a 110.6 Drtg, you would expect most players who were on the roster for the majority of the season to be within a couple points of that.  In fact, we find that the individual defensive ratings of people who played the full season range from 107 to 114 for a +/- of 3 to 4 points.

The overall 2019-20 team posted a Drtg of 114.8.  The range for full year players* on this team was 112 to 117 which is consistent with that generaly +/- of 3 to 4 points.

So we can directly compare the 110.6 to 114.8 and conclude that the 2017-18 team was much better.  (I think we agree on this and were just exploring why.)  Within those rosters, we can see that the people at the top end of the range were the worst defenders and those at the bottom of the range were the best defenders.  

It gets more and more tenuous when you start comparing individual Drtg numbers for players in different seasons or on different teams because the number is so context dependent.  See the example of Marcus Smart above where his numbers were right on par with the team's overall number.  I do not conclude from this that he got worse because he is on par with the team's overall number in both cases.  I do conclude that team's defense got worse over that same period.

 

 

(* - Note that I did not include Dedmon here because he only played 10 games with the team during one of the few stretches were our key players were all available.  For that reason, you can see the team's improved defense in that stretch is not representative of the overall numbers for the season.  His numbers were not dragged down during the VC/Parker, etc. lineups like most of the rest of the crew and are therefore a statistical outlier due to the small sample size.)

Does the same go for Ortgs?  If a player goes to team with better offensive players then should his rating should go up too?