Snell will be squeezed out of minutes upon DAH & Cam's return for this reason

[sturt]

 

 

Footnote: Until we see evidence to the contrary, it would seem safe to rest logic on the foundation that those who are members of the "young core" and have been routinely starters (ie, those drafted in the first round since 2018 (Collins, Young, Huerter, Hunter, Reddish) will continue to get starters' minutes.

And.

Until we see evidence to the contrary, it would seem safe to rest logic on the foundation that those vets for whom Schlenk has paid a high price in free agency (Gallinari and Bogdanovich), or gave up a 1st to acquire in trade (Capela) also will continue to get starters' minutes.

That's 8 players getting starters' minutes as long as they're healthy...

Most teams have 10 players in their rotation. That leaves room for 1 point guard slot and one back-up center slot.

Simple deduction.

Which is why it remains reasonable to believe Snell will be swapped for someone who actually might garner some rotation-level minutes, ostensibly at the back-up center slot.

For that to be erroneous, Snell would have to either (a) drastically improve his defense and become a more complete player, or (b) become something like a Trae Young, capable of actually taking over games with some regularity with his offense.

Snell is a known quantity at this stage of his career, though.

Neither of those is reasonable to believe is likely.

 

 

 

 

[warcore]

Can't believe I just saw the name Nazr Mohammad. 

#theKukocdays

[RedDawg#8]

I guess when Dunn comes back Trae should lose his minutes too, based on this logic. Defense only matters.

Let's ignore Snell has the highest offensive rating on the team according to your post.

Let's ignore Snell has the 2nd highest NET rating on the team according to your post.

Let's also ignore that Kevin, Cam, and Bogi all have a NEGATIVE NET ratings according to your chart.

Lets ignore you want him to lose his minutes to guys who also post bad defensive ratings within 3 points of his, with much worse offensive ratings.

This is not a good argument for him to lose minutes. Not when you are replacing him with guys that are having net negative impacts.

He has earned a spot and we would be foolish to sit him right now.

[REHawksFan]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

 

 

Footnote: Until we see evidence to the contrary, it would seem safe to rest logic on the foundation that those who are members of the "young core" and have been routinely starters (ie, those drafted in the first round since 2018 (Collins, Young, Huerter, Hunter, Reddish) will continue to get starters' minutes.

And.

Until we see evidence to the contrary, it would seem safe to rest logic on the foundation that those vets for whom Schlenk has paid a high price in free agency (Gallinari and Bogdanovich), or gave up a 1st to acquire in trade (Capela) also will continue to get starters' minutes.

That's 8 players getting starters' minutes as long as they're healthy...

Most teams have 10 players in their rotation. That leaves room for 1 point guard slot and one back-up center slot.

Simple deduction.

Which is why it remains reasonable to believe Snell will be swapped for someone who actually might garner some rotation-level minutes, ostensibly at the back-up center slot.

 

 

 

I think your assumptions are wrong.  I disagree that they will play the young core or the paid player FA over clearly better players given their own stated goal / expectation of making the playoffs. 

You are valuing your own assumptions that have not been proven over the team goals that have been stated publicly. I think that's wrong.

Your assumptions are logical for teams not interested in making the playoffs. But as it is, the playoffs HAVE to take top priority given the teams stance.

[sturt]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

...That's 8 players getting starters' minutes as long as they're healthy. Most teams have 10 players in their rotation. That leaves room for 1 point guard slot and one back-up center slot. Simple deduction. Which is why it remains reasonable to believe Snell will be swapped for someone who actually might garner some rotation-level minutes, ostensibly at the back-up center slot.

For that to be erroneous, Snell would have to either (a) drastically improve his defense and become a more complete player, or (b) become something like a Trae Young, capable of actually taking over games with some regularity with his offense.

Snell is a known quantity at this stage of his career, though.

Neither of those is reasonable to believe is likely.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I stand corrected.

 

Snell will get Solo's minutes.

 

And to the bottom line point...

I suppose that's more important than having a legit someone behind Capela.

(Silly me.)

 

[Buzzard]

Lets be real. Reddish was once again thrust into a bigger role this season due to injuries. Just like last season when Huerter was injured and Collins was suspended. Then you also have the LP effect vs the Nate effect.

Go to any Pacer board and they will tell you two things. Nate is good with young players. Nate does rely on his vets to show them the way. Snell may lose some minutes. That is understandable when Hunter gets back. Hunter is the starting small forward bar none. Until Reddish is ready for prime time, I think his days of 30 minutes a game are over. Something like 20 minutes to give him a chance to work his way into a bigger role.

[REHawksFan]

46 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

 

I stand corrected.

 

Snell will get Solo's minutes.

 

And to the bottom line point...

I suppose that's more important than having a legit someone behind Capela.

(Silly me.)

 

Cam, Bogie, Kevin all rank well below Tony in on off and net rating so I'm not sure I find the RAPTOR rating on its own overly compelling. 

Good news is, at some point Hunter, Dunn, and Cam will all be healthy (presumably) so we'll find out just how right you are and wrong I am. Haha

Edited March 14, 2021 by REHawksFan

[Watchman]

4 hours ago, sturt said:

 

 

Footnote: Until we see evidence to the contrary, it would seem safe to rest logic on the foundation that those who are members of the "young core" and have been routinely starters (ie, those drafted in the first round since 2018 (Collins, Young, Huerter, Hunter, Reddish) will continue to get starters' minutes.

And.

Until we see evidence to the contrary, it would seem safe to rest logic on the foundation that those vets for whom Schlenk has paid a high price in free agency (Gallinari and Bogdanovich), or gave up a 1st to acquire in trade (Capela) also will continue to get starters' minutes.

That's 8 players getting starters' minutes as long as they're healthy...

Most teams have 10 players in their rotation. That leaves room for 1 point guard slot and one back-up center slot.

Simple deduction.

Which is why it remains reasonable to believe Snell will be swapped for someone who actually might garner some rotation-level minutes, ostensibly at the back-up center slot.

For that to be erroneous, Snell would have to either (a) drastically improve his defense and become a more complete player, or (b) become something like a Trae Young, capable of actually taking over games with some regularity with his offense.

Snell is a known quantity at this stage of his career, though.

Neither of those is reasonable to believe is likely.

 

 

 

 

Yes, but Snell's offensive rating of 132 far exceeds his defensive rating of 114.  Reddish has an offensive rating of 100 and a defensive rating of 114.  Let's see.  I prefer Snell, as +18 is a lot better than -14.

[sturt]

http://82games.com/barzilai2.htm

Per the article cited, three fundamental problems with over-emphasis of box plus/minus highlighted here:

(a) The stat is inherently reflective not only of the player's performance but of his back-up's performance;

(b) The stat is routinely reflective of not just the player's performance in a silo, but of the players with whom a given player ordinarily is on the floor with; and,

(c) The stat is routinely confounded, as a result of "a" and "b" to be needing multiple seasons' numbers and analysis. And indeed, that situation is a concern for most stats one could cite.

 

What we have above in the OP is... indeed... multiple years... and thus, the outcomes after inclusion with a variety of rosters.

 

 

[sturt]

What is defensive rating?

http://www.82games.com/comm26.htm

 

What gives fivethirtyeight's Raptor some perceived advantage over other player ratings?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

 

How would one prove that, more than any other wing on his team's roster, Snell has gotten assigned to guard the opposing team's best wing?

Dunno.

But let's assume that one was, indeed, prove-able and legit, for the sake of argument...

 

How would one prove that Snell's coaches have not been savvy enough as-of-yet to figure out that that's not a good idea?

Dunno.

But what I do feel pretty confident in saying is that there's no shortage of fans who just presume NBA coaches aren't all that smart.

[AHF]

I think Snell has been tasked with the best opposing wing for a lot of his career minutes which factors (negatively) into his  drtg numbers.  He shouldn’t have that role.  But he should be a useful part of the rotation.

[REHawksFan]

From today's The Athletic article:  

(Listed under the "Likeliest Trade Candidates" section)

Tony Snell ($12.2 million) — Who would have predicted Snell was going to be an important player for the Hawks this season? He’s played very well in the extended absences of Hunter and Cam Reddish and has found himself in the starting lineup because of their injuries. Snell is shooting 57 percent from 3 this season and has been a positive defensively.

Snell is on an expiring contract and his value for the Hawks is going to take a hit when Hunter and Kris Dunn are able to come back, so if Atlanta could extract some value in a trade for him, it should do so. Pairing Snell and Collins in any trade could bring back just over $21 million in salary.

 

I maintain his shooting has value for the Hawks, but we'll see how it plays out.  

[REHawksFan]

12 hours ago, sturt said:

http://82games.com/barzilai2.htm

Per the article cited, three fundamental problems with over-emphasis of box plus/minus highlighted here:

(a) The stat is inherently reflective not only of the player's performance but of his back-up's performance;

(b) The stat is routinely reflective of not just the player's performance in a silo, but of the players with whom a given player ordinarily is on the floor with; and,

(c) The stat is routinely confounded, as a result of "a" and "b" to be needing multiple seasons' numbers and analysis. And indeed, that situation is a concern for most stats one could cite.

 

What we have above in the OP is... indeed... multiple years... and thus, the outcomes after inclusion with a variety of rosters.

 

 

I'm assuming this is directed at me since I mistakenly said plus minus in my post above when I actually meant the on/off data.  I've never liked plus minus as a stat for individual players (but I'm less opposed if looking at combinations of players).  Regardless, twas not my intention above to cite plus minus.  Just a mistake.

[sturt]

1) Forgive me for addressing you directly, @REHawksFan, since I've learned better on this board than to risk that ordinarily.

2) However, I think I can get away with addressing someone directly this time, b/c the mistake, rather, is mine.

I should have said "on/off," not "box plus/minus"... though of course, it's also not as-if the two are not dependent upon the same raw data that charts when players are on or off the floor. But my bad.

[sturt]

Kirschner: "...and has been a positive defensively."

If one reads anything said about Snell's defense by any beat writer, this kind of assertion frequently appears. But it's the definition of propaganda, as there is very little in the way of data that ever backs it up. He just looks the part, I suppose.

And honestly, it reminds me of Jabari Parker who it often seemed was playing good defense, but somehow someway always was still getting scored upon.

[AHF]

29 minutes ago, sturt said:

Kirschner: "...and has been a positive defensively."

If one reads anything said about Snell's defense by any beat writer, this kind of assertion frequently appears. But it's the definition of propaganda, as there is very little in the way of data that ever backs it up. He just looks the part, I suppose.

And honestly, it reminds me of Jabari Parker who it often seemed was playing good defense, but somehow someway always was still getting scored upon.

A big data point is what assignments coaches have given him during his career.  He has been the #1 perimeter defender as measured by responsibility given to him by his coaches on most of his teams.  I personally think that is a reflection of the options available on those teams and that he is better suited to a secondary or tertiary role in that regard but it does speak to how his own coach assessed his defensive ability relative to the other options on the roster.

[sturt]

16 hours ago, sturt said:

What is defensive rating? http://www.82games.com/comm26.htm

What gives fivethirtyeight's Raptor some perceived advantage over other player ratings? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

 

How would one prove that, more than any other wing on his team's roster, Snell has gotten assigned to guard the opposing team's best wing?

Dunno.

 

But let's assume that one was, indeed, prove-able and legit, for the sake of argument...

 

How would one prove that Snell's coaches have not been savvy enough as-of-yet to figure out that that's not a good idea?

Dunno.

 

But what I do feel pretty confident in saying is that there's no shortage of fans who just presume NBA coaches aren't all that smart.

 

[Buzzard]

With Reddish now out 4 - 6 weeks, the Hawks rumor is they are looking for wing depth. Hunter gets back, I see Snell as the 1st SF off the bench. I see Huerter and Bogi battling it out for SG.

Some notes on Huerter. His TS% as a starter is .548. For the 12 games off the bench its .538. During February he had a nice bump to .564. Another bump to .584 during this 5 game winning streak in March.

I hope this is Huerter growing up. Huerter with a TS% of .580 or higher is something I have been begging to see since his rookie season.

Edited March 15, 2021 by Buzzard

[JayBirdHawk]

9 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

With Reddish now out 4 - 6 weeks, the Hawks rumor is they are looking for wing depth. Hunter gets back, I see Snell as the 1st SF off the bench. I see Huerter and Bogi battling it out for SG.

Some notes on Huerter. His TS% as a starter is .548. For the 12 games off the bench its .538. During February he had a nice bump to .564. Another bump to .584 during this 5 game winning streak in March.

I hope this is Huerter growing up. Huerter with a TS% of .580 or higher is something I have been begging to see since his rookie season.

Like, I said in the game thread.  Huerter is no longer tasked with PG duties, so he has settled into a rhythm and role that best suits his skillset.

Also agree on the Snell front unless he is traded for an upgraded wing but I can't think of what that look like.

[Buzzard]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Like, I said in the game thread.  Huerter is no longer tasked with PG duties, so he has settled into a rhythm and role that best suits his skillset.

Also agree on the Snell front unless he is traded for an upgraded wing but I can't think of what that look like.

My head has been spinning with all the Collins rumors to Minnesota and Boston. I just don't see anything out there that including Snell would be helpful for our backup small forward spot.