Players in and out. How much will it matter?

[thecampster]

Out                              In

Bruno ->                    Dieng

Goodwin ->               Cooper

Snell ->                      Johnson

Dunn ->                    Wright

Knight ->                  Roster slot.

 

How much do these moves really improve or drop our point differential per game?

[ATLHawks3]

Overall, I think we really improved on the margins. We're still going to give the majority of minutes to our core, but I think we really improved our depth behind them. I think now, if we have an injury to one of our key guys, we'll at least have some depth behind them that should help keep us afloat until they come back. I'm really going to be interested in the development of Jalen, Sharife, and Cam this year.

[Guest]

I think the Dieng and Wright upgrades improve us about 10% over last year.  I don't think we'll see much difference in our overall production, this year, from the other three moves.  All good moves, especially if the rookies blossom in the next couple years.  Some moves just won't move the needle much this year.  
Of course, the open roster spot is still to be determined.  

So, with 41 wins last year, which would have been 46.5 wins if correlated to a full 82-game season, a 10% improvement should give us 51 wins.  If we use the open roster spot effectively, and early enough, we might get up to 55 wins.  

I'm very optimistic about next year and think we'll be the third seed, maybe higher pending typical injuries to other teams (which we should be able to overcome with our newfound/increasing depth).  We'll also have some internal improvement from our young players and those vets who were injured parts of last year.  So, going to be a fun year!

[sturt]

My take, fwiw...

 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

Out                              In

Bruno ->                    Dieng

Goodwin ->               Cooper

Snell ->                      Johnson

Dunn ->                    Wright

Knight ->                  Roster slot.

 

How much do these moves really improve or drop our point differential per game?

My take:

Dieng >>> Bruno - huge upgrade

Wright >>> Dunn - huge upgrade

Lou Will full season > Rondo/Lou - small upgrade

Snell > Johnson - slight downgrade as I'm sitting here today for the regular season but that could easily be surpassed but an upgrade for the post-season (basically I'm saying we shouldn't count on JJ for the regular season while Snell played a significant role off the bench last year)

Goodwin - Cooper - push for the regular season as Goodwin did not play a meaningful role and I don't think Cooper will do so either

Knight - roster slot - push (see Goodwin/Cooper)

 

I'm also hoping that:

Reddish 2021-22 >> Reddish 2020-21

Hunter 2021-22 > Hunter 2020-21 (health driving this)

OO 2021-22 > OO 2020-21 (OO wasn't around much last year but should be an impact addition when he returns after his positive development last season so I think the overall contribution should be better)

 

Expecting a push from:

Trae (think there is upside with his 3pt%, continued defensive improvement and improvement with his floater but tough to do much more than his All-NBA level play; I like the odds better he simply gets proper recognition for his contributions)

Bogi (a more consistent contributor who is much better than he started the season but not as good as his fire second half)

JC (think there is upside here over his 18/7)

Solo

Huerter (do think there is some upside)

Gallo (think there is some upside as much as he struggled during the regular season)

Mays (still not expecting much of a significant role)

 

Think there is downside for:

Capela (tough to repeat league leading numbers)

[niremetal]

I think @LongTimeFanand@AHFboth made great points above.

One thing that's missing, though, is that there has been some improvement among the "secondary" contenders in the East as well, most notably Chicago, IMHO. I think Chicago dramatically overpaid* to improve its roster, but I have little doubt that the additions of DeRozan and Lonzo bought them a few extra wins--especially since they'll be able to either bring back Markkanen or get assets by signing-and-trading him. Miami also improved (although less than people seem to think). Boston will be better this year with Jaylen Brown's return. And among the top-tier seeds, I think they'll all be roughly as good this coming year as they were last year. All told, I think the tougher East will cost the Hawks a few wins, offsetting any gains due to the strengthening of our second unit and/or Reddish/Hunter bouncing back.

(* But maybe not. For DeRozan, I'm expecting him to develop a 3-point shot at some point, which will offset any decline in his game due to slower feet. I don't think there are any other consistent ~85% free throw shooters who are ~25% from deep, and I figure he'll make that adjustment soon-ish. If that happens, he'll probably maintain his current level of production, and the contract Chicago gave him isn't a dramatic overpay for that)

Quote

Bogi (a more consistent contributor who is much better than he started the season but not as good as his fire second half)

The temptation is definitely to assume Bogi will experience some regression, but at the same time, given Trae's explosive playoff performance, defenses will certainly not being keying in any less heavily on Trae this year than they did last year. If that opens up more good looks for Bogi, then that (combined with him being healthy and not being grossly misutilized by LP) might mean that he can maintain something resembling his late-season pace. And as you indicated, Bogi performed at an all-star level in the second half of the season (21ppg, 4.2 apg, 50/49/90 shooting after Nate made him a starter). A full season of that would be worth an additional few wins by itself.

More broadly, everyone is saying right now that the Hawks won't be able to catch anyone by surprise next season. But if the main lesson teams learned from our playoff run is "we need to stop Trae Young," then I think Trae's abilities as a distributor combined with the great fit of all the pieces around him will mean that the team as a whole still has a chance to catch opponents by surprise.

Edited August 9, 2021 by niremetal

[Peoriabird]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

Snell > Johnson - slight downgrade as I'm sitting here today for the regular season but that could easily be surpassed but an upgrade for the post-season (basically I'm saying we shouldn't count on JJ for the regular season while Snell played a significant role off the bench last year)

LOL!  Snell was such a limited player so I have no idea how you came to this conclusion.

[sillent]

9 hours ago, thecampster said:

Out                              In

Bruno ->                    Dieng

Goodwin ->               Cooper

Snell ->                      Johnson

Dunn ->                    Wright

Knight ->                  Roster slot.

 

How much do these moves really improve or drop our point differential per game?

It may not look like the biggest change talentwise but if you look closely you'll notice the 5 out rarely played. None of those 5 got consistent minutes especially in the playoffs. Snell might've been the most consistent there but I'm sure we'll all take Jalen Johnson over him at this point. Brandon Goodwin was good for us but he won't bring the excitement and dynamics of a Sharife Cooper.

Dieng and Wright will both be serviceable from the jump and should be more serviceable even as 3rd stringers. 

Knight will be missed the most but with a young core of Collins, OO, JJ, Hunter, Reddish, Huerter, Trae and Cooper we were not going to be able to keep everybody anyway. Those 8 are probably the max we can afford to keep if we do their contracts  correctly.

[DrReality]

How about McMillan > our former coach. What’s that worth for a full season. 

[AHF]

On 8/9/2021 at 8:36 PM, Peoriabird said:

LOL!  Snell was such a limited player so I have no idea how you came to this conclusion.

Pretty easy.  If JJ is playing in the G-League, that is a downgrade versus a player who played a key glue role for us.  There is no comparison between JJ's ceiling and Solo.  Purely a function of how quickly JJ reaches that ceiling and how much time he spends not playing in Atlanta or playing very few minutes in Atlanta.  I'm trusting TS when he says that our rookies will spend a lot of time in the G-League this year but I think both have the potential to seize meaningful spots in the rotation.  

By way of example, future 6x All-Star Jermaine O'Neal was less valuable as a rookie than Donotonio Wingfield.  Future 7x All-Star Paul George was less valuable than Brandon Rush.

I hope Jalen breaks out and dominates this year but in making my prediction I put him in the category of development this year which is usually not a positive factor for a current season's success.  

Bear in mind, last year Solomon Hill started 15 games for the Hawks and played over 1500 minutes because we needed him.  He plugged holes and knew where to be on the floor and allowed the defense and offense to function normally due to his veteran experience.  I think he had a pretty significant value last season.  (Much more impact than I'd project for Solo this year.)

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Pretty easy.  If JJ is playing in the G-League, that is a downgrade versus a player who played a key glue role for us.  There is no comparison between JJ's ceiling and Solo.  Purely a function of how quickly JJ reaches that ceiling and how much time he spends not playing in Atlanta or playing very few minutes in Atlanta.  I'm trusting TS when he says that our rookies will spend a lot of time in the G-League this year but I think both have the potential to seize meaningful spots in the rotation.  

By way of example, future 6x All-Star Jermaine O'Neal was less valuable as a rookie than Donotonio Wingfield.  Future 7x All-Star Paul George was less valuable than Brandon Rush.

I hope Jalen breaks out and dominates this year but in making my prediction I put him in the category of development this year which is usually not a positive factor for a current season's success.  

Bear in mind, last year Solomon Hill started 15 games for the Hawks and played over 1500 minutes because we needed him.  He plugged holes and knew where to be on the floor and allowed the defense and offense to function normally due to his veteran experience.  I think he had a pretty significant value last season.  (Much more impact than I'd project for Solo this year.)

Why are you changing the comparison to Hill vs the original comparison of Snell? Plus Johnson doesn't have to reach his ceiling to better than either. He already is.

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Why are you changing the comparison to Hill vs the original comparison of Snell? Plus Johnson doesn't have to reach his ceiling to better than either. He already is.

First, I made a mistake in my prior post of citing Solomon Hill.  A lot of what I described with Solo applies to Snell, though, since Snell filled key gaps for us (as Solo did), let us run our full offense and defense, and played roughly 1000 minutes worth of time to go with his 23 starts.  Those 23 starts were roughly 1/3 of the starts at SF this season and represented a huge need for us to patch the roster together with guys out.

I was comparing the 2020-21 roster of last season against the 2021-22 roster of next season.  I took people from last year's roster and compared them against their counterparts this season.  2020-21 Snell was my comparison for 2021-22 Johnson.

Snell played key minutes while Hunter, Bogi and Cam were out and shot an absurd .708% TS% on the limited shots he took.  His vet impact for us in the regular season was significant (unlike his post-season).

Again, I don't expect JJ to play 1000 minutes and start 23 games and impact our season the way Snell did.  I hope JJ can become that kind of contribor but I'm trusting TS that he will be spending significant time in the G-League and using most of this season as a learning opportunity somewhat similar to what OO did last year.  If that is the case, I expect Snell's impact on last regular season to be bigger than JJ's impact on the Hawks this regular season.

But as I acknowledged in my original post and above, JJ's potential is way higher long-term so this is a matter of timing and development track.  When is JJ ready (and when is the rotation ready) for JJ to have significant minutes to compare with Snell's 21.1 mpg last year?  Looking forward to finding that out.  I would also say that both Solo and Snell delivered much higher than expected value due to injuries and so part of my thought process is that JJ will likely not have the same kind of opportunity through injury attrition that they did.  

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

First, I made a mistake in my prior post of citing Solomon Hill.  A lot of what I described with Solo applies to Snell, though, since Snell filled key gaps for us (as Solo did), let us run our full offense and defense, and played roughly 1000 minutes worth of time to go with his 23 starts.  Those 23 starts were roughly 1/3 of the starts at SF this season and represented a huge need for us to patch the roster together with guys out.

I was comparing the 2020-21 roster of last season against the 2021-22 roster of next season.  I took people from last year's roster and compared them against their counterparts this season.  2020-21 Snell was my comparison for 2021-22 Johnson.

Snell played key minutes while Hunter, Bogi and Cam were out and shot an absurd .708% TS% on the limited shots he took.  His vet impact for us in the regular season was significant (unlike his post-season).

Again, I don't expect JJ to play 1000 minutes and start 23 games and impact our season the way Snell did.  I hope that is the case but I'm trusting TS that he will be spending significant time in the G-League and using most of this season as a learning opportunity somewhat similar to what OO did last year.  If that is the case, I expect Snell's impact on last season to be bigger than JJ's impact on the Hawks this season.

But as I acknowledged in my original post and above, JJ's potential is way higher long-term so this is a matter of timing and development track.  When is JJ ready (and when is the rotation ready) for JJ to have significant minutes to compare with Snell's 21.1 mpg last year?  Looking forward to finding that out.

Somehow this conversation turned from who is better to trying to predict how many minutes Johnson will get compared to Snell? SMH. I will stick to the original conversation and restate my position. Johnson is better at basketball than Tony Snell right now.

[thecampster]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

First, I made a mistake in my prior post of citing Solomon Hill.  A lot of what I described with Solo applies to Snell, though, since Snell filled key gaps for us (as Solo did), let us run our full offense and defense, and played roughly 1000 minutes worth of time to go with his 23 starts.  Those 23 starts were roughly 1/3 of the starts at SF this season and represented a huge need for us to patch the roster together with guys out.

I was comparing the 2020-21 roster of last season against the 2021-22 roster of next season.  I took people from last year's roster and compared them against their counterparts this season.  2020-21 Snell was my comparison for 2021-22 Johnson.

Snell played key minutes while Hunter, Bogi and Cam were out and shot an absurd .708% TS% on the limited shots he took.  His vet impact for us in the regular season was significant (unlike his post-season).

Again, I don't expect JJ to play 1000 minutes and start 23 games and impact our season the way Snell did.  I hope that is the case but I'm trusting TS that he will be spending significant time in the G-League and using most of this season as a learning opportunity somewhat similar to what OO did last year.  If that is the case, I expect Snell's impact on last season to be bigger than JJ's impact on the Hawks this season.

But as I acknowledged in my original post and above, JJ's potential is way higher long-term so this is a matter of timing and development track.  When is JJ ready (and when is the rotation ready) for JJ to have significant minutes to compare with Snell's 21.1 mpg last year?  Looking forward to finding that out.

FYI, I have been trying to get info on the Hawks developmental plans with JJ to which there has been little. This isn't abnormal.

 

There are 6+ preseason games to get through and a camp. Other teams are evaluating their rosters right now and must like the Bledsoe trade, a few more shoes could fall before training camp. What I can say is that JJ is farther along offensively than the Hawks anticipated. He also needs more work defensively than hoped. They are hoping that voluntary work with vets, trainers, etc is going to help him. When vets play pickup at the practice facility, they run a lot of the same plays you'll see at practice. This is one of the things that helped Kevin so much. He would play a lot of defense in these pickup and practice scenarios to sharpen his footwork. In JJ's case, it isn't footwork, or even strength that's a problem (the kid has a serious core and when he puts on weight is going to be terrifying) but its awareness on pro sets. He really struggled so far in summer league with switching, staying with his man off ball and even recognizing which man is his. 1v1 iso he's pretty good considering he's 19.  But picks, curls, baseline cuts are killing him. Its to be expected when he hasn't played much ball above the high school level but its going to take some work. He'd look like a baby octopus if he was defending a JC/Trae pick n roll. Its going to be baptism by fire and I'm not sure G-League is going to fix it. He needs to be in the gym with vets every day between now and opening night playing defense.

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by thecampster

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Somehow this conversation turned from who is better to trying to predict how many minutes Johnson will get compared to Snell? SMH. I will stick to the original conversation and restate my position. Johnson is better at basketball than Tony Snell right now.

That is not what I was comparing.  The original question is how much these guys affect point differential which I view as a strong proxy to wins and losses.

Snell made a big impact for us last year.  I don't expect much of an impact from JJ this year.  That was the original conversation.  

There is no conversation about whether JJ's upside compares to Snell.  It is obvious that JJ does.  What he will be as a rookie and what his impact will be on the team's chances of winning this year is the topic.

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is not what I was comparing.  The original question is how much these guys affect point differential which I view as a strong proxy to wins and losses.

Snell made a big impact for us last year.  I don't expect much of an impact from JJ this year.  That was the original conversation.  

There is no conversation about whether JJ's upside compares to Snell.  It is obvious that JJ does.  What he will be as a rookie and what his impact will be on the team's chances of winning this year is the topic.

Did I mention upside? I think I used the term now.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

FYI, I have been trying to get info on the Hawks developmental plans with JJ to which there has been little. This isn't abnormal.

 

There are 6+ preseason games to get through and a camp. Other teams are evaluating their rosters right now and must like the Bledsoe trade, a few more shoes could fall before training camp. What I can say is that JJ is farther along offensively than the Hawks anticipated. He also needs more work defensively than hoped. They are hoping that voluntary work with vets, trainers, etc is going to help him. When vets play pickup at the practice facility, they run a lot of the same plays you'll see at practice. This is one of the things that helped Kevin so much. He would play a lot of defense in these pickup and practice scenarios to sharpen his footwork. In JJ's case, it isn't footwork, or even strength that's a problem (the kid has a serious core and when he puts on weight is going to be terrifying) but its awareness on pro sets. He really struggled so far in summer league with switching, staying with his man off ball and even recognizing which man is his. 1v1 iso he's pretty good considering he's 19.  But picks, curls, baseline cuts are killing him. Its to be expected when he hasn't played much ball above the high school level but its going to take some work. He'd look like a baby octopus if he was defending a JC/Trae pick n roll. Its going to be baptism by fire and I'm not sure G-League is going to fix it. He needs to be in the gym with vets every day between now and opening night playing defense.

 

What I will say is I think he'll be better offensively with the vets than in summer league. I saw 3 or 4 passes a game where either his man just flat wasn't ready for the pass or JJ expected his man to come to the ball / make a cut and these bush league, flat footed summer leaguers get caught watching.

 

You can tell how good offensively JJ is when you see his teammates just watching him when moving. They're spectators in awe they are on the same floor (I played a little semipro baseball and realized how mortal I was when playing with a double A guy. I had that same spectator look often). 1/2 of his turnovers are people just not recognizing plays he's making for them. The defenders intercepting are almost always 2nd year guys who are picking the pass off late but recognizing. That behind the back top of the key pickoff he just expected his guy to run middle at the basket and he floated off toward the corner watching. I'd have been ticked. If that's Gallo, Hunter, Cam, JC, its a down the middle dunk. Looked terrible from JJ but a real player would have been going right up the middle with that and been on SC.

[thecampster]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is not what I was comparing.  The original question is how much these guys affect point differential which I view as a strong proxy to wins and losses.

Snell made a big impact for us last year.  I don't expect much of an impact from JJ this year.  That was the original conversation.  

There is no conversation about whether JJ's upside compares to Snell.  It is obvious that JJ does.  What he will be as a rookie and what his impact will be on the team's chances of winning this year is the topic.

Offensively with JJ there will be no cheating off your man to double Trae. With Snell, it was all about playing angles to deny the pass to the corner. With JJ the defense would have to work to deny him.

[AHF]

 

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Did I mention upside? I think I used the term now.

 

If you really believe that JJ will be the better player this season with respect to whether JJ will:

On 8/9/2021 at 11:30 AM, thecampster said:

improve our point differential per game?

How about another bet Peo.  This thread is about point differential.

In terms of point differential, last season Snell had a 135 offensive rating against a 117 defensive rating with is a +18 differential. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/snellto01.html

Snell had a +1.1 net points per 100 possessions on/off court.

http://www.82games.com/2021/20ATL10.HTM

If JJ exceeds both of those numbers this year, you win the bet and get off the hook for the bet you wouldn't follow through on last time.  I'll never mention you reneging on that bet again.  

If JJ exceeds one but not the other, then it is a push.

If JJ is worse in both differential metrics, I win and you have to actually live up to the original bet but for two months this time.  I'll even promise to pick a different avatar for you than I did last time.

[thecampster]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

 

If you really believe that JJ will be the better player this season with respect to whether JJ will:

How about another bet Peo.  This thread is about point differential.

In terms of point differential, last season Snell had a 135 offensive rating against a 117 defensive rating with is a +18 differential. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/snellto01.html

Snell had a +1.1 net points per 100 possessions on/off court.

http://www.82games.com/2021/20ATL10.HTM

If JJ exceeds both of those numbers this year, you win the bet and get off the hook for the bet you wouldn't follow through on last time.  I'll never mention you reneging on that bet again.  

If JJ exceeds one but not the other, then it is a push.

If JJ is worse in both differential metrics, I win and you have to actually live up to the original bet but for two months this time.  I'll even promise to pick a different avatar for you than I did last time.

I think its a bit early in the process for gentlemen bets don't you think?

https://www.stopproblemgambling.com/