The cobbled together, stuff we held on to during the playoffs mega super rumor and team direction thread.

[thecampster]

8 hours ago, Dean Walker said:

He thinks Jc is Gone!

Not surprised, we should’ve never resigned him!

He is the 2nd highest paid player on a team that needs to make salary room for defense.

There are about 8 teams in the league that could use a bonified 4 with scoring.

Draw your own conclusions.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Also..

Keep OO for what?  The reality is, if you bring in Ayton,  you've just made your #6 pick overall into a bench player for the rest of his time here.  He's not a PF... and he's not going to want to stay here if there's no possibility of starting at some point.

I would not move OO this soon (unless high return of course) even if we bring in Ayton. OO may not be ready to start as the primary PF on offense given his current limitations, but it does not mean he can't/won't develop those skills over the next year or two. And I'm not worried about pick status in determining wether he starts or not. I've seen pick status not be a factor enough times to give it credence. Let your play on the floor determining factor.

1. We have 2 years to determine OOs trajectory. By then both DA and JC will have 2 years left on their deals - maybe it's one of them that gets moved in 2 years 

2. Hawks still need an experienced backup C, that'll be OO, even if we kept CC, OO still has to show he can supplant him as the starter before his anticipated payday.

3. With the way of the NBA going small, Hawks need versatility in their lineups. Besides, Ayton ability to step out beyond the paint and shoot with range leaves OO to work inside if they are paired together in some lineups. So you can have JC and OO and DA amd OO lineups. 

4.  With Ayton not as good defensively as Cap, we still need established defenders in the front court.

5. OO has been this good as a defender: he's held Giannis to 29%, Embiid 35%, Bam 37% and KAT 25% field goals. I'm not trading this for a rookie.

[Spud2nique]

10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I would not move OO this soon (

Or ever but go on… 

10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

And I'm not worried about pick status in determining wether he starts or not. I've seen pick status not be a factor enough times to give it credence. Let your play on the floor determining factor.

Ma’am.

[Spud2nique]

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

1. We have 2 years to determine OOs trajectory. By then both DA and JC will have 2 years left on their deals - maybe it's one of them that gets moved in 2 years 

Yes.

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

5. OO has been this good as a defender: he's held Giannis to 29%, Embiid 35%, Bam 37% and KAT 25% field goals. I'm not trading this for a rookie.

This.

22 minutes ago, thecampster said:

There are about 8 teams

I have 11.

[Final_quest]

41 minutes ago, thecampster said:

He is the 2nd highest paid player on a team that needs to make salary room for defense.

There are about 8 teams in the league that could use a bonified 4 with scoring.

Draw your own conclusions.

Amazing draft pick for us.  Even after signing him to a larger deal, he still has a lot of trade value.  We have to give something to get something.  

[h4wkfan]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

He is the 2nd highest paid player on a team that needs to make salary room for defense.

There are about 8 teams in the league that could use a bonified 4 with scoring.

Draw your own conclusions.

The problem is … what defensive 4s are available that would be a real improvement to JCs defense? Unless we are banking our season on OO being our starting 4. 

[sturt]

Representing the unpopular opinion contingent.

1. No matter what trade you make, you only win the trade... you only actually improve your team... to the degree that you got more back than you gave up.

(I came up with that all by myself. You should be impressed.)

2. The next best thing you can hope for is that you gave up something in one area where you have surplus talent, and gained something in area where you have a deficit, and even though the trade is effectively a tie, it was a win-win, not a lose-lose, not a meh-meh.

(Ditto.)

3. Even if we assume the rumors are true that there's been talk... and that my suspicions are horse pucky that McM could be a whole lot less eager to replace Capela with him than anyone is interested to acknowledge...

Me, I've simply seen no trade offer for Ayton that on its face improves this team... at least, that is, any that are plausible.

(Told you... unpopular.)

4. LaVine? Same. In terms of skills, he's a more offensively aggressive version of KVon, and capable of about the same defensive impact... at 2x the price. Adding him would get attention. But he's more of a sensationalized name than he would be a sensational, difference-making addition. Could his UFA status make the out-go lesser, making for an easier net gain? I think the most you could hope for would be #2... except... where do we have this "surplus" in some other area? So, nope, not likely.

5. Gobert? That's the one acquisition that conceivably could move the needle. Capela is a good defensive center. Gobert is a great defensive center. I think we'd all agree. And defense is the true priority one for this off-season. But again, the bird of paradise flies up our collective nose (why that song lyric just rose up from the deep dark crevasses of my brain, a mystery)... he's not only going to cost you talent in order to make the trade exception work... he's... going to cost you, in effect, two Capelas on your payroll. Is he that good? Well, he's really, really good. And if you were replacing Ayton or an Ayton equivalent with him, it would be more reasonable. But you're not, of course. So, I again come to the same conclusion... in the end analysis, all things considered, the odds that we win a Gobert trade or even come out even are low.

Are those our only options to improve the team?

They're the only options that we discuss very much... they're each a flashy option, which seems to be important to an awful lot of the Hawksquawk congregation... but no, they're not the only options.

 

[thecampster]

10 hours ago, sturt said:

I'm uncertain which part of that I'm being taken to disagree with, camp.

Not proposing a team with cap room take on Gallo.... independent of... some balancing out so that they're both (a) ridding themselves of some contract(s) that balance out the buy-out ($5m right now, but as said previously as much as $15m if the deal needed it... me, I'm saying $11m is adequate for what I'm suggesting)... and (b) acquiring some more lucrative perceived reward for their trouble.

To be clear, also, not proposing a contending team would take him (ie, short of the NYK situation we'd discussed weeks ago where his one year is arguably attractive in view of the four years that team committed to Randle).

So, to illustrate using the OKC trade proposed earlier today (tweaked from last week, which was tweaked from the week before that)...

OKC gets #16 pick and Gallo w/ a revised guarantee of $11m, which they will eat after cutting him prior to 6/29... for...

3 expiring contracts each at ~ $2m (Dort, Williams & Roby) plus 1 more at ~$10.2m (Favors)... total of $16m (accommodated via trade exception, ie $11m+$5m+100k)... and rights to Micic, who theoretically would be signed using MLE... oh... and yeah, pick #34 (as-if OKC needs that one anyhow).

So, OKC's net is they subtract $5m-ish off their bottom line.

The short-term value to ATL is a fairly significant infusion of defense up and down the 22-23 roster, and the addition of a plausibly legitimate other scorer who can be featured in the rotation. Long-term value is almost exclusively Micic since the others would all be UFAs in 2023, though you'd have Bird rights I believe to resign Favors and Kenrich Williams if they impressed.

You may not like that version, but for the sake of this particular conversation, it's purpose is only to illustrate the incentives that would lead both sides to make a deal... the particular player assets involved could be modified, of course(... I even argued with myself about Favors, in light of the money and in light of how Moose performed last season relative to what he's owed for his expiring).

 

 

I'm trying to advance (or quash) a discussion.

 

Every year I make a post that I inevitably get flamed for (usually pre-draft through Moratorium) where I give examples of the types of posts people should avoid if they don't want to incur the wrath of the board.  This whole discussion is quickly derailing into silly.

Jaybird's post was about bringing the discussion back to "reasonably could" instead of "theoretically possible". Its theoretically possible the whole world will lay down their nuclear arms tomorrow, disband their militaries and through logic and reason enter into a 1 world government run through community level policing democracy". Theoretically possible...oh sure.....Reasonably could...lol no.

 

The nonsense has all centered on Gallo.  No team in the league sees Gallo as worth spending more than (estimated) $12 million ish next year.  $10 million 1 year rental is probably more reasonable.  So when I told Jaybird I could get behind her 4 players for Gallo suggestion. I wasn't saying (oh yah lets make that happen). I was saying, I'd accept that because it fits our cap needs. What I wasn't saying is, "yep, OKC would do that."

 

I've never had a good feel for "taking back bad salary X is worth draft pick Y" but if I had to guess, 1 year of taking away Gallo's entire 2022 salary is worth a future 1st top 20 protected (because its only 1 year).  When you start throwing players in, you aren't going to get much in return positive without adding more compensation. To get the haul Jaybird was suggesting would probably take the future 1st and #16 just for starters.  But when people start going into hypotheticals where multiple teams are thinking for trading for Gallo as if he's a positive at that salary, I have to protest. Her post was closer to my thinking on this. 

 

So let me say this with clarity.  Any post where we are sending out Gallo, getting back usable assets in return for any salary swap level is going to cost 2 x 1sts (IMHO) and I don't think Travis is going to do that when he can keep the assets and just waive/stretch that $5 million. Why stretch, financial?

$1.66 million /year for 3 years.  If the team believe it won't go too far into the LT, that $1.66 will cost less LT penalty in total if stretch vs loading up the LT amount this year. Although it could push us into the LT in the next 3 years each year, it may not and stretched dead money in the LT is better than loaded up dead money in the LT.

[JayBirdHawk]

26 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I've never had a good feel for "taking back bad salary X is worth draft pick Y" but if I had to guess, 1 year of taking away Gallo's entire 2022 salary is worth a future 1st top 20 protected (because its only 1 year).  When you start throwing players in, you aren't going to get much in return positive without adding more compensation. To get the haul Jaybird was suggesting would probably take the future 1st and #16 just for starters.  But when people start going into hypotheticals where multiple teams are thinking for trading for Gallo as if he's a positive at that salary, I have to protest. Her post was closer to my thinking on this. 

I always refer back to the Tauren Prince/Allen Crabbe trade as a baseline for teams taking on 'bad' salary.

Hawks traded Prince and a 2nd for Crabbe, 2019 #17 pick (used to trade up for Hunter) and a future 2020 1st (ended up being #16 which we traded for Capela).

So in essence Brooklyn send a mid 1st for Prince and a mid 1st to dump Crabbe's $17 million. (Granted Crabbe was a really 'bad' contract as opposed to Gallo that has 'some' value).

[NBASupes]

19 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I always refer back to the Tauren Prince/Allen Crabbe trade as a baseline for teams taking on 'bad' salary.

Hawks traded Prince and a 2nd for Crabbe, 2019 #17 pick (used to trade up for Hunter) and a future 2020 1st (ended up being #16 which we traded for Capela).

So in essence Brooklyn send a mid 1st for Prince and a mid 1st to dump Crabbe's $17 million. (Granted Crabbe was a really 'bad' contract as opposed to Gallo that has 'some' value).

And Crabbe 17 million in that NBA is like 26 million today so that was worth a mid 1st in those days.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

And Crabbe 17 million in that NBA is like 26 million today so that was worth a mid 1st in those days.

I wouldn't go as high as $26 with the team taking back some salary...I'd top it at $21 million straight salary dump.

[thecampster]

Minor props to the board by the way. I would never even consider posting the above on RealGM. The majority of the board wouldn't be able to process it, compartmentalize it or not abuse it. The above is some deep level GM type of discussion and is not the conversation topic for mere mortals to grasp. 

I don't expect all on this board to get every nuance of what we're saying, but I do love how the collective intelligence of this board is capable of seeing 3D chess level nuance and can talk cap issues/player values at higher than a 6th grade reading level. The discussions here really have improved over the last 10ish years.

and by post I mean most of what everyone here posts and not just myself, Jaybird or a select few. There is a large basket of quality posters on this board and that's not common.

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by thecampster

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, h4wkfan said:

The problem is … what defensive 4s are available that would be a real improvement to JCs defense? Unless we are banking our season on OO being our starting 4. 

I never said "defensive 4", I said improve defensively. Defense at the 2/5 is the defense I'm talking about.  Much of what JC brings to the table can be replaced by JJ right now (we'd be missing a few things but actually be better in a couple....like JJ's ball on the floor, passing game). I'm willing to take steps down at the starting/backup 4 if it upgrades our starting 5, starting/backup 2.

[thecampster]

@h4wkfan lets play a little salary connect 4.

Besides Trae and assuming Gallo is waived, the top 3 salaries on the team are:  JC-$23.5 mil, Clint-$19.7 mil (cap purposes), BB-$18 mil. When you include Gallo's salary - $1.67 million (stretched cap impact), that's another $19.78 mil in a team currently at $152.7 million in salary. Those salaries add up to $80.98 million or Gobert + 1x $35 million salary + $7 million.  So go find me a top 5 2-guard at $35 million, slip JJ into the 4 or backup 4 and fill in some slots with the other $7 million in add on pieces.  That's how I see it. I see a big pot of money absorbed by 4 players, 1 of which won't be on the team next year and those salaries take up the starting/backup 4 spots, the starting center spot, backup 2 guard spot.  

I see Trae, Hunter in the starting lineup and say what can put around them.  JJ = no salary impact to the $80.98 mil.  He's already on the roster.  So now I say...can I get another C, PF, SG for $80.98 mil and would they be a better fit around Trae?  Of all the salaries above, JC's contributes the most, Gallo the second most and we have a good player waiting to take one of those slots. You got 16/8 from Collins last year.  JJ gave you 22.5/11.1/4.6 in the g-league last year. I have to believe his drop off from Collins in the NBA won't be too far. Especially at 13% the salary.

[sturt]

@thecampster ... all well taken... we're all allowed to have our varying amateur scout/coach/GM opinions on talent level.

I suppose the tectonic principles I'm trying to express are, in thinking about potential trades...

(1) It does make a major difference if the receiving team is forced to guarantee Gallo's full $21.5m salary, as opposed to taking on... and eating by virtue of cutting him... his pre-6/29 salary of $5m or $11m or even $15m... and

(2) It makes a major difference what is the current player acquisition posture of the team.... vis-a-vis, OKC is one that especially sticks out both because Presti has publicly indicated he's in for one more year of a tank posture, and he has added incentive to consider a deal as Jay imagined b/c he's already got a full roster today (15 under contract), he's got 4 draft picks today (sure, he might end up with just 2 or 3 after all is said and done... but then... ), and also he's got these players who are living on the payroll cliff, ie, expiring contracts that he has to assess whether he's committed to keeping, and if not, how he can convert those expiring assets into something of more enduring value.... and... finally...

(3) If Presti determines--and he very well might (based, not on my assessment, but on those of OKC bloggers/beat writers whose content is widely accessible online)--that Dort, Williams and/or Roby are not in his long-term plans, and for that matter, I think we already know that none of Micic, Muscala nor Favors are... then the puzzle pieces are on the table that could be put together to make a Gallo deal... one that, as I pointed out, can be tailor-made to fit which puzzle pieces at what amount of trade exception, and importantly, with OKC actually netting a savings on their payroll on the other end of 6/29.

Correct me where I'm wrong (???).

 

[HawksNWaffles]

I guess it's time to share what I have been hearing 

[Spud2nique]

2 minutes ago, HawksNWaffles said:

I guess it's time to share what I have been hearing 

I knew it’s always been you. You feel guilty about it during the season and are super nice and give and share your Hawks tickets because of it huh? 

[Spud2nique]

53 minutes ago, thecampster said:

RealGM

FAKE!

[sturt]

7 minutes ago, HawksNWaffles said:

what I have been hearing

Me too. Anyone else like me, you got your vax last year, and you've had tinnitus ever since... ???

[HawksNWaffles]

14 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I knew it’s always been you. You feel guilty about it during the season and are super nice and give and share your Hawks tickets because of it huh? 

 

7 minutes ago, sturt said:

Me too. Anyone else like me, you got your vax last year, and you've had tinnitus ever since... ???

@Spud2nique yes my machinations laid undetected until now mwhahaha

 

@sturt.... haven't been able hear my wife since .... But without saying too much,( I can't and I don't like twitter poachers) that and the fact that alot of you have heard this a bunch already, but there is alot more smoke to the JC trade rumors than I thought myself.  where I work, we are kind of..... very associated with the Hawks, but that's all I can say...or more accurately all that I have heard.  

Edited June 13, 2022 by HawksNWaffles