Reveling in the preseason opium... is there ANY team in the league with higher upside? I don't think so.

[Gray Mule]

A lot depends on our bench.  I agree.  However, I believe our bench is better.  When Capela is out, we do tend to get pushed around by some big, bully sized studs.  Yet with all of this, I have been impressed with our "other than starter" players.

I know.  This old man is easily impressed and they are all Atlanta Hawks and that alone makes them special!  Speed.  Passing.  Rebounding!  Spacing.  They all seem to do these things pretty good.

Beginning 10/18/22 we will get a glimpse into our future.  Hoping it  looks rosy!

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, Final_quest said:

From the perspective of if everything comes together, I get the enthusiasm.  We have five guys, Hunter, Okongwu, JJ, Bogi, and AJ, who have a wide range of outcomes.  Plus DJM and Trae pairing that could be oil and fire.  

It's a lot of dominoes to fall to get to 65 wins, I think the biggest knock against believing in that possibility is the dependency on young players who have yet to show they can perform at that level. 

Not to sound like a broken record, but the most likely path to a big win total in my mind would be Capela turning back into a 20/20 machine and Bogi going back into assassin mode.  If Bogi turns into Kyle Korver with more skill and Capela is DPOY candidate while being a top 3 lob threat, we could be extremely exciting.  Plus the possibility of a mid season addition like what Boston did with Derrick White.    

I think that with the pressure off of him to have to be the man and if he can be Korver like... meaning that he can dominate a team without having to be the man, then Bogi will make a huge difference. 

 I think Clint will make a strong defensive run and will probably be like he was 2 years ago.   The difference, he has defensive minded people and a new defensive coach around him.   Having DJM and an improved Hunter on the ball will allow Clint to be able to man the paint.   Even though he's not that big, he's ferocious and don't let much get past him.  Plus he has a motor. 

If Trae keeps trying on defense, that will help.   I was happy to see him try in the preseason. 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

Even OO is uncertain,

 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Okongwu is one of the best bigs off the bench. 

Thank you!

 

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Aaron Holiday is a massive upgrade over what we got from Lou last year.

He’s not in Lou’s role though he’s in Delon’s and they were/are both solid to me.

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

Seems like AJ could actually be an x-factor for us as a rookie which is refreshing.  If he can come in and knock down 3s for even 15 minutes a game well that really changes things especially next to Murray who's a seriously threat to drive. 

You tryin to hone in on my boy AJ? 

[sturt]

2 hours ago, gurpilo said:

we lack size and strenght

As a rule, we have to play to our strengths, just like an offense in the NFL has to play to theirs.... it's actually counterproductive to have a few O-linemen who are smaller but quicker/faster and a few who are super-sized but slower. Rather, you strategize according to the skill set and best assets of the personnel you've decided to prefer.

So, it's a positive that we have as much duplication of skill set as we do between our 1st and 2nd Cs and PFs.

That said... I agree with you, in case it's somehow flown under the radar. I think every other post I've posted in the last month has had something to-do someway somehow with our need to fill that 3rd unit void for a big. Self-evidently, it's nuts to me that our FO hasn't addressed that... and in the same breath, nuts to me that any team goes into the season voluntarily with one less player than what is allowed... especially when it's a big, b/c in addition to the possibility of injury, there's a higher likelihood of foul trouble from game to game. At the very least, there should be a two-way slot given to that, rather than continuing to hold on to Forrest when you've got 4 players capable of primary ball-handling on the regular roster (Trae, DJM, ADay, and Krejci), not to mention that Martin's shown he could hold down that role in a pinch. (Don't get me wrong, I really like Forrest, but like I said, at the very least, if you're not going to fill the 15th opening.)

"Well, they're concerned about the tax line."

Yes, it appears they are. But it's a false premise to say that that prevents them from addressing the issue, if you're paying attention. They do have enough room below the tax line to go get some young-un big like Charles Bassey... or others who have less than 2 years of service... and they do have the option to offer Bassey or whoever a non-guaranteed contract so that they can part with the player at a moment's notice if it became necessary.

Did I mention it's just nuts that they haven't addressed it? Well, it is. But I continue to be that glass-half-full guy... so I'm trying to ignore what I see as a totally unnecessary misstep, ie, the tennis equivalent of an unforced error... and focusing on the opium part of the glass as indicated in the OP.

[gurpilo]

Is true Bogdanovic played well last year, on offense he is really good, on defense he has big lapses, overall I think he is really positive but needs a big SF that can defend, JH is not that guy, fit is bad. Harkless was a good fit.

Okongwu, I like the guy but is a really undersized center, we are buying upside but real production is still just good, not elite for a bench player. He needs a big PF, someone like Jalen Smith. JJ might be a good fit but he is unproven.

Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, played well for bad teams from the bench, can they play well on a playoff team? I have big doubts. I think they are below average bench players now, although I think AH might surprise. 

Kaminski is terrible. 

Overall our best players, AH, BB, OO are small and lack strength, the SF and PF are bad or rookies and don’t provide the size or strength. The fit is bad and the talent is not as high as you think.

[JayBirdHawk]

I like the upside of our starters. 

My bench concerns has to do with

1. the relative youth of OO, JJ and AJ.

2. Continuity, Chemistry, Rhythm and timing of the 2nd unit, OO is the only returning player (minus Bogi).

3. Nate's love of his all bench unit. However in preseason he mostly played 9 deep. Trae or DJ with the bench.

4. I'd like to see him stagger the starters/bench like this: Trae or DJ with Collins and OO or Trae or DJ with JJ and CC.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, gurpilo said:

Justin Holiday played well for bad teams

 

All due respect, how do we make this idea die?

Rather he had the kind of performance that suggests he's at the very end of his career, and all the more so given the trend from three seasons ago.

 

 

 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, gurpilo said:

Okongwu, I like the guy but is a really undersized center, we are buying upside but real production is still just good, not elite for a bench player.

I'm counting on the fact that, after two seasons of no training camp and only getting on to the floor several months into the season, he's been healthy (*knocks on wood*) and will have the same full running start to the season as that of his teammates.

I don't worry about his size largely because I've seen him perform exceptionally against some of the league's biggest and best, Embiid in particular. What he doesn't have in terms of height, he makes up for in springs in his legs, quickness, and instincts.

[sturt]

9 hours ago, marco102 said:

14 hours ago, sturt said:

It's seemed popular for national writers to say that the Hawks highest possible aspirations for 22-23 is another conference finals berth, and #3, maybe even #2 in the conference.

Where have you seen this?

 

hehe... not making it up... all of these were highlighted in HS threads recently, my friend...

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-picks-breaking-down-southeast-win-totals-and-why-hawks-will-be-better-regular-season-team-than-heat/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everyones-a-favorite-in-our-2022-23-nba-forecast/?addata=espn:frontpage

[marco102]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

 

hehe... not making it up... all of these were highlighted in HS threads recently, my friend...

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-picks-breaking-down-southeast-win-totals-and-why-hawks-will-be-better-regular-season-team-than-heat/

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everyones-a-favorite-in-our-2022-23-nba-forecast/?addata=espn:frontpage

 

 

Popular would indicate more than 2 or 3.  MOST are saying what I said.

Didn't say you made it up. I was just saying that is not the national sentiment on the Hawks.

[sturt]

4 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Popular would indicate more than 2 or 3.  MOST are saying what I said.

  

14 hours ago, sturt said:

It's seemed popular for national writers to say that the Hawks highest possible aspirations

I would point to this in my original post that you quoted...

 

I'm not citing what they're predicting... not citing "national sentiment"...

 

I am citing the more limited number who have spoken to what the best outcome could be.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

14 hours ago, Diesel said:

 

2.  Philly - Embiid, Harden, Maxie,   and off the bench they have shooters and tough guys like Tucker, Harrell, Thybulle, Korkmaz..  I watched them in the preaseason shoot themselves back into a loss game (similar to what we did). 

Tucker is starting - That Philly bench in their first game...yikes.

[NBASupes]

10 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Thank you!

 

He’s not in Lou’s role though he’s in Delon’s and they were/are both solid to me.

Delon role is phased out. Murray and Trae are lead guards who will get the bulk of lead guard minutes. Delon was a horrible lead guard. 

[sturt]

On 10/18/2022 at 1:39 PM, Final_quest said:

I KNOW what Sturt thinks about his defensive rating decline, but he's not gonna guard the PG13's of the league coming off the bench.  

Just saw this.

I didn't make it up. I promise. I haven't the hacker skills to go in to Basketball-Reference.com and change the numbers... not subject to "what Sturt thinks."

It just is.

The same calculation is made using the same factors for players x, y and z.

And to try to address your point objectively.... in the world of statistics, "power" is increased as you have more and more data points... and given about 2000 minutes, that's a lot of data points for a player, and thus, a lot of power to be attributed to the final outcomes/results/numbers.

 

Could it be that the biggest problem for Justin is starting or not starting? Could it be, as intimated by the comment, that being on the floor for fewer minutes against other starting wings would restore Justin to his previous statistical prominence?

If you could theoretically tease it out to look at a player's minutes to only those playing against starters and only those playing against bench players, that would be good insight to have... and even more granular, in this era of switching defenses, how cool to be able to look at a player's actual specific stops when actually guarding a starter versus guarding a bench guy... and even more granular still, to be able to account for the offensive rating of that player being guarded, not merely whether the player guarded was a starter on a particular night or not.

But here's the problem: We don't.

 

But here's the solution: We have so many data points... so many minutes on the floor... that the power of the end statistic is useful anyway. 2000 minutes in the NBA routinely puts a given player in the highest quintile in a given season, and that's been the case for JDay these last 3 seasons.

 

To suggest what you've suggested here, that it's just a matter of his starting or not, theoretically we should be able to look back on his seasons when he didn't start much versus those where he did start most of the time, and detect if there is some difference.

JDay has had 6 seasons total where he's played a significant number of minutes, 5 of those over 2000, and 1 over 1600. Previous to 2016-17 when he got those 1600, the most he'd gotten was 700.

We've already looked at the most recent 3, so let's look at the 3 prior to that, shall we?

 

2016-17... came off the bench (only 4 starts)... his 111 DRTG mirrored NYK's team 111 DRTG... didn't help, didn't hurt

2017-18... started... his 110.9 DRTG mirrored CHIs team 111 DRTG... didn't help, didn't hurt

2018-19... started for two teams... in CHI, he was about a point better than the team's, and in MEM, he was about a point worse than the team's... so, reasonable to conclude overall, he didn't help, didn't hurt

 

And just briefly, he was about a point better than his team in 2019-20... about 2 points worse than his team in 2020-21... and then 2 points worse than his SAC team and 3 points worse than his IND team, all three years as a starter.

 

So, the outcome of JDay's one season off the bench was consistent with the next two seasons when he did start... and then he started in the year when he had his greatest success... and then he also started these last two years, age 31 and 32.

You still want to hold on to that theory desperately, though?

[sturt]

On 10/18/2022 at 5:04 AM, sturt said:

There are other teams that can bring equivalent starting 5's to ours, don't get me wrong. The difference is that the Duke boys and BogBog plausibly could emerge as the most potent force that any team can boast in the rest of the rotation. Add to that the maturing Godzilla and the steady Capela as top 10 low post assets, and this team could be considered as loaded as any team in quite some time.

 

The OP isn't wrong.