Reveling in the preseason opium... is there ANY team in the league with higher upside? I don't think so.

[sturt]

It is not hard for me to imagine this roster being the envy of the NBA this time next year. There are other teams that can bring equivalent starting 5's to ours, don't get me wrong. The difference is that the Duke boys and BogBog plausibly could emerge as the most potent force that any team can boast in the rest of the rotation. Add to that the maturing Godzilla and the steady Capela as top 10 low post assets, and this team could be considered as loaded as any team in quite some time.

It's seemed popular for national writers to say that the Hawks highest possible aspirations for 22-23 is another conference finals berth, and #3, maybe even #2 in the conference. But if everything for this team went right... which, of course is asking a lot, as it would be for any team... if everything went right, I have this team winning 65 games, and bringing home to ATL the franchise's first O'Brien Trophy... earning an even higher respect than currently held for BOS, who oh by the way this time last year wasn't generally considered even a top 4 team in the conference.

 

[Diesel]

Well...  There may be a team with a higher upside.. There may be a few.. let me explain...

In our division, we have to be aware of:  

1.   Brooklyn.  - Healthy Big Three.  With add-ons  Mills, Claxton, Harris, Morris, Oneal, and Warren.  They have some younger players than last year... but they will go through growing pains too. 

2.  Philly - Embiid, Harden, Maxie,   and off the bench they have shooters and tough guys like Tucker, Harrell, Thybulle, Korkmaz..  I watched them in the preaseason shoot themselves back into a loss game (similar to what we did). 

3.  Detroit - Surprise surprise.   These guys will be the cardiac kids of the East.   They are actually very complete but they are really young. However, they have good coaching.    Cunningham, Bogdanovich, Stewart, Bey, and Ivey are the starters with Burkes, Noel, Bagley III, Joseph, Hayes, and even Duren...   They have talent and should not be slept on...

4.  Cleveland - These guys are complete and they have good coaching.  I don't have to say much about Spyda, Mobley, Allen, Garland, and Lavert.  I think their bench is good too:  Love, Lopez, Okoro, Rubio, and Osman.    They will surprise a lot of people. 

 

Even Orlando is good, they just don't have a bench. 

In the West.

1.    Clipps - Coming back to full strength puts them right back in the championship mix...  They got Wall, Kinnard, Covington, Batum, Powell, and Mann coming off the bench.   They are deep.

2.  Trailblazers - Scary team.  Even though they didn't win a preseason game, they have horses out there.   

3.  Denver - I don't know what to say about them... they got the most ugly, hurt team in the game.  And somebody gifted them: KCP, Bruce Brown, and Ish Smith just to sit the bench.   

But I agree.  Our Bench mob... once they find their chemistry is one of the best.   We await the return of "the knee".    They league has ignored the fact that the we have one of the best shooters in the game and now, he won't be bogged down with anything else AND he's working out with Kyle Korver.   If the benchies can get that chemistry, OO will be a top scorer/rebounder/defender, Holidaze will be difference makers, but Bogi will be the top sniper. 

[NBASupes]

There are a lot of teams in the east with crazy potential. 

To win in the RS in today's NBA is about depth, talent, unit versatility, roles, and execution for possession by possession basketball. 

With Trae, we are always going to be inconsistent at P2P but Murray is extremely consistent even if he's not as talented offensively. I do believe we have potential to be a good P2P team aside from Trae and Dre. I feel like, if healthy, Capela, JC, and Bogi have been pretty consistent in Atlanta. 

We haven't had a good P2P team since the 60 win Hawks and we haven't had an elite P2P squad outside of the 60 win Hawks. 

I think we have everything else. All of our starters are now vets or Young vets. We have vets on the bench who can still help us. We did a good job with the min guys this year like Holiday and Kaminsky. In previous years, we wasted min guys with signings like TLC who aren't NBA level players. With the NBA getting so much deeper, it's getting easier to get quality for cheap if you have a good thing going. 

[Diesel]

Supes, I agree. 

I don't think this is a place for us to sleep on the talent out there.   There are some tough games that used to be easy...

I mean, the Wiz, Knicks, Magic, and Pistons are no push-overs anymore.. they all have something that will make them competitive.  I believe that this is about the most parity that we have seen in the EC since Nique, MJ, Pat, Isaiah, and Reggie Played. 

The good news is that we play a lot of young teams and for as young as we are on paper, we have good vet presence.

As far as us.

If Hunter has turned the corner.. .and if DJM can becomes the master of the midrange... our starters may put some games out of reach before the benchies come in. 

[sturt]

I appreciate that the question has been addressed verbatim as it was offered.... and just wanted to say as much. I'm not suggesting that there are no teams that have as high a ceiling as ours in my of-course-humble estimation... I'm saying there's none higher. And there's some challenge to that, which is fine. This is a road trip day for me, so I can't write any book chapters in response (... pipe down out there, stop your cheering... ) but maybe tonight or tomorrow I can dive back in.

 

[marco102]

4 hours ago, sturt said:

 

It's seemed popular for national writers to say that the Hawks highest possible aspirations for 22-23 is another conference finals berth, and #3, maybe even #2 in the conference. 

 

Where have you seen this? Most are predicting us as fifth seed at best with a first round exit because they have concerns about the Murray/Young fit.  However, they are all gushing over the Cavaliers, but they have no concerns over the Garland/Mitchell fit. 

 

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

With Trae, we are always going to be inconsistent at P2P but Murray is extremely consistent even if he's not as talented offensively. I do believe we have potential to be a good P2P team aside from Trae and Dre. I feel like, if healthy, Capela, JC, and Bogi have been pretty consistent in Atlanta. 

 

What do you mean by this?  Last season, we had one of the best half court offenses in the league which to me means we are more consistent running our stuff P2P.  Are you saying on the defensive end? I know Trae does some wild stuff every now and again, but all stars do and to me, if you're running the offense consistently 90% of the time with low turnovers, you're a good P2P team.  

[macdaddy]

I'm super pumped about our starting lineup.   I'm with @Diesel about Cleveland and Philly having as much or more reason to be optimistic.  BKN i'm in wait and see mode.   Cleveland has a talented young starting lineup and more depth than we do right now.  

[NBASupes]

Just now, marco102 said:

Where have you seen this? Most are predicting us as fifth seed at best with a first round exit because they have concerns about the Murray/Young fit.  However, they are all gushing over the Cavaliers, but they have no concerns over the Garland/Mitchell fit. 

 

What do you mean by this?  Last season, we had one of the best half court offenses in the league which to me means we are more consistent running our stuff P2P.  Are you saying on the defensive end? I know Trae does some wild stuff every now and again, but all stars do and to me, if you're running the offense consistently 90% of the time with low turnovers, you're a good P2P team.  

Possession by possession basketball is a problem for Trae. On both ends. He's extremely productive but he can screw up our offensive flow like we saw against New Orleans and play freelance ball. That's a problem. Even the squad don't always know what to expect from Trae in terms of style of play. That's a problem and defensively, it's 10x worse. 

As for Dre, the Pels game was the prime example. Some games, Dre is the best player on the court, some games, he gets dominated on defense and offensive, he struggles. It's hard to get consistency from Dre even if the flashes are extremely intriguing. 

[marco102]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Possession by possession basketball is a problem for Trae. On both ends. He's extremely productive but he can screw up our offensive flow like we saw against New Orleans and play freelance ball. That's a problem. Even the squad don't always know what to expect from Trae in terms of style of play. That's a problem and defensively, it's 10x worse. 

As for Dre, the Pels game was the prime example. Some games, Dre is the best player on the court, some games, he gets dominated on defense and offensive, he struggles. It's hard to get consistency from Dre even if the flashes are extremely intriguing. 

Okay, just establishing a baseline for your definition of P2P.  I'm not drawing too many conclusions from preseason basketball, but Trae will be wild at times during preseason.  To me, he's improved P2P on the offensive side of the ball from a couple of years ago.  

Defense, you are 100% right. He has to be more consistent there. 

To me, most of Dre's problems have been injury related.  The back and wrist last season caused him to fall apart once he was finally getting into a groove.  I, like you, am hoping he's much more consistent this year and can get away from the nagging injuries. 

[NBASupes]

Just now, marco102 said:

Okay, just establishing a baseline for your definition of P2P.  I'm not drawing too many conclusions from preseason basketball, but Trae will be wild at times during preseason.  To me, he's improved P2P on the offensive side of the ball from a couple of years ago.  

Defense, you are 100% right. He has to be more consistent there. 

To me, most of Dre's problems have been injury related.  The back and wrist last season caused him to fall apart once he was finally getting into a groove.  I, like you, am hoping he's much more consistent this year and can get away from the nagging injuries. 

Elite P2P is Tim Duncan, LeBron, CP3,  Curry

These are players that possession by possession, causing havoc on teams on both ends to the best of abilities 

Elite P2P teams are Hawks and Warriors 15-16, no NBA team last year was elite P2P. 

You can have an elite talent team like OKC with KD, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.

P2P is execution based

Talent is God given meets hard work and BBIQ. 

Teams with excellent two way abilities is Miami with Bron and the big 3 healthy, Milwaukee with Giannis, Jrue, and Middleton, and Golden State with the big 3 and depth or big 3 plus top 2 KD.

[Final_quest]

From the perspective of if everything comes together, I get the enthusiasm.  We have five guys, Hunter, Okongwu, JJ, Bogi, and AJ, who have a wide range of outcomes.  Plus DJM and Trae pairing that could be oil and fire.  

It's a lot of dominoes to fall to get to 65 wins, I think the biggest knock against believing in that possibility is the dependency on young players who have yet to show they can perform at that level. 

Not to sound like a broken record, but the most likely path to a big win total in my mind would be Capela turning back into a 20/20 machine and Bogi going back into assassin mode.  If Bogi turns into Kyle Korver with more skill and Capela is DPOY candidate while being a top 3 lob threat, we could be extremely exciting.  Plus the possibility of a mid season addition like what Boston did with Derrick White.    

[Spud2nique]

11 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Elite P2P is Tim Duncan, LeBron, CP3,  Curry

These are players that possession by possession, causing havoc on teams on both ends to the best of abilities 

Elite P2P teams are Hawks and Warriors 15-16, no NBA team last year was elite P2P. 

You can have an elite talent team like OKC with KD, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.

P2P is execution based

Talent is God given meets hard work and BBIQ. 

Teams with excellent two way abilities is Miami with Bron and the big 3 healthy, Milwaukee with Giannis, Jrue, and Middleton, and Golden State with the big 3 and depth or big 3 plus top 2 KD.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

Possession by possession is critical but hardly anyone is great at it. Chemistry has to be high, you gotta have nothing but vets and if it's a young player, it has to be a Battier or Tayshaun Prince type. It's not easy. 

[Gray Mule]

HIGHER UPSIDE?  This is what he ask.  He doesn't believe so.

I agree.  If all our players are as good as we believe that they are, no NBA team has a higher upside.  Many have listed teams that are great.  This is why I didn't predict as many wins as some.  Hawks must play all these good teams.  

Sometimes this Hawk team will have a terrible game.  It happens.  The thing is, so does every other NBA team.  Despite the occasional slip, I believe that this Hawk team is built to last.  To go far.  Be good enough to win any game, regardless of the opponent.  Most of these other teams feel the same way.  Our own upside is great!

The pessimist sees defeat in every game while the optimist only sees a victory.  I see this Atlanta team winning more games than they lose.  If healthy, I see them going far in the playoffs!

 

[gurpilo]

Don’t want to be the only one in disagreement but our bench is terrible, below average on the league and we have serious lack of size and strength.

Okongwu and Bogi are decent bench players, AH, JH, Kaminsky are end of the bench players on most teams. Griffin and JJ are unproven, I also see the upside but is unrealistic to expect meaningful contribution for them this year.
I am not saying is not going to work but there are decent chances this will not work properly. Hopefully I am wrong.

Starting unit is really good but still we lack size and strenght, we are bullied on the paint quite often.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, gurpilo said:

Don’t want to be the only one in disagreement but our bench is terrible, below average on the league and we have serious lack of size and strength.

Okongwu and Bogi are decent bench players, AH, JH, Kaminsky are end of the bench players on most teams. Griffin and JJ are unproven, I also see the upside but is unrealistic to expect meaningful contribution for them this year.
I am not saying is not going to work but there are decent chances this will not work properly. Hopefully I am wrong.

Starting unit is really good but still we lack size and strenght, we are bullied on the paint quite often.

 

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

think the biggest knock against believing in that possibility is the dependency on young players who have yet to show they can perform at that level.

Yes.  I think folks are overly optimistic about our bench.   Even OO is uncertain, Bogi isn't playing yet and JJ is our only real backup PF.  I love our starters but as injuries happen we will be dependent on a lot of unproven talent or average to below average vets. 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, gurpilo said:

Don’t want to be the only one in disagreement but our bench is terrible, below average on the league and we have serious lack of size and strength.

Okongwu and Bogi are decent bench players, AH, JH, Kaminsky are end of the bench players on most teams. Griffin and JJ are unproven, I also see the upside but is unrealistic to expect meaningful contribution for them this year.
I am not saying is not going to work but there are decent chances this will not work properly. Hopefully I am wrong.

Starting unit is really good but still we lack size and strenght, we are bullied on the paint quite often.

I am way more optimistic on bench simply because Murray will get most of the time with the bench as will Trae. That was my biggest issue with the bench last year, PG.

Bogi is one of the best wings in the NBA off the bench. 

Okongwu is one of the best bigs off the bench. 

Saying that they are just decent is true if you are talking about them as starters right now but as backups, they are as good as it gets. 

SF is a question mark but not as much as it was last year. We got Griffin, Holiday, and Martin.

Aaron Holiday is a massive upgrade over what we got from Lou last year. If he's back to Indy/Nate Aaron, he's a legit baller off the bench for us.

JJ is a question mark but he's played well in the preseason for us. Obviously, we just lost one of the best bigs off the bench in Gallo. That will string if JJ doesn't replace his production and likely can't replace his impact overall. 

Murray and Trae getting almost all of the lead guard minutes with both units really raises our floor which is the biggest issue with this team.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, gurpilo said:

Don’t want to be the only one in disagreement but our bench is terrible, below average on the league and we have serious lack of size and strength.

Okongwu and Bogi are decent bench players, AH, JH, Kaminsky are end of the bench players on most teams. Griffin and JJ are unproven, I also see the upside but is unrealistic to expect meaningful contribution for them this year.
I am not saying is not going to work but there are decent chances this will not work properly. Hopefully I am wrong.

Starting unit is really good but still we lack size and strenght, we are bullied on the paint quite often.

I'm not sure what to think of our bench yet.  Bogi was the top bench scorer in the league during the time he was 6th man last year, that fact alone could keep us out of terrible zone.  Okongwu has pretty good analytics for a second year player. 

The other guys are the question marks.  JJ is effectively a rookie, like AJ, but they both have enormous upside.  Due to previous discussions I looked a lot at JH's stats.  He was shooting 7 3's a game as a starter last year at a decent percentage.  I KNOW what Sturt thinks about his defensive rating decline, but he's not gonna guard the PG13's of the league coming off the bench.  

If a lot of the bench guys disappoint, we have the option of a short rotation. 

[macdaddy]

Seems like AJ could actually be an x-factor for us as a rookie which is refreshing.  If he can come in and knock down 3s for even 15 minutes a game well that really changes things especially next to Murray who's a seriously threat to drive. 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I'm super pumped about our starting lineup.   I'm with @Diesel about Cleveland and Philly having as much or more reason to be optimistic.  BKN i'm in wait and see mode.   Cleveland has a talented young starting lineup and more depth than we do right now.  

I think our highs are higher than Cleveland's highs!

Trae > Garland

DJM > Spyda

Hunter <Lavert 

JC <Mobley

Clint =Allen

Our Bench = Their Bench (overall)

Matchup wise, it's going to be a hard matchup, but just like we have to get our chemistry together, they do too.   What I noticed in preseason is Garland looks less confident in his role now.   Spyda is great but defense is suspect.   Mobley is a monster though.   JC always posterizes Allen.   Basketball is about matchups and I don't fear Cleveland as much as other matchups.