I can’t go through another/retool/reMESSUP

[AHF]

20 hours ago, Watchman said:

Luka not Like.  Ugh, I hate autocorrect.

If multiple All-Stars aren't lining up to play with someone, are they excluded from the category of superstar?  We know one All-Star was lined up to play with Trae.  (Personally, I would not include excitement of other players to team up with them in my definition of superstar. )

[Final_quest]

On 1/4/2023 at 5:36 PM, Atlantaholic said:

I never said Trae didn't usually perform better in the second half of the season. I'm saying this is easily his worst first half start of the year since his rookie year scoring the ball. Both things can be true.

So just to illustrate this fact, here is the stats for the first three months of the year every year since his rookie year:

2019 (Oct-Dec):  31 games; 28.5ppg, 60% TS 

2020: (Dec-Feb): 32 games; 26.5 PPG, 59% TS

2021: (Oct-Dec): 32 games, 27.5 PPG, 58% TS

2022: (Oct-Dec) 32 games, 27.5PPG, 55% TS

PS: This drop in TS% this year coincides with a very big jump in the NBA league average TS% from 56.6% last year to 57.7% this year. Out of the top 30 scorers in the NBA only Keldon Johnson has a worse TS%. Ja is a fraction of a point better than Trae. Outside of those guys no one is under 57%

TS% formula used = Points ÷ ((2 x Field Goal Attempts) + (0.88 x Free Throw Attempts)

 

 

Q: If Trae shoots like he did second half of last year will your opinion change?

A: All the Trae haters have decided we will only post his stats when it aligns with our narrative.  All other evidence is ignored.  

Me: Oh. Got it.

[Atlantaholic]

17 hours ago, Final_quest said:

Q: If Trae shoots like he did second half of last year will your opinion change?

A: All the Trae haters have decided we will only post his stats when it aligns with our narrative.  All other evidence is ignored.  

Me: Oh. Got it.

*Shrugs* Whatev, just pointing out facts. Trae's play has PLUMMETED since the Miami series and that is a measurable fact. Talking about "narratives" though the notion Trae is trash in the first half of seasons and is amazing in second halves is one such narrative probably bias from the rookie season where it was true and last year whre he ended the year on an incredible tear. Last three years his first half numbers are

FG%: 44.2% 3PT%: 36.9% TS%: 58% PPG: 27.5

Vs second Half:

FG%: 45.1% 3PT%: 36.1% TS%: 60% PPG: 27.9

Now compared to this year:

FG%: 41.6% 3PT% 31.1% TS% 55% PPG: 27.3

If this is not concenring to you or other poster that is fine. You have faith Trae will flip a switch and go from being one of the least efficient and effective scorers in the NBA to one of the most efficient (as he was last year before the Miami series). I am not that confident.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Atlantaholic said:

*Shrugs* Whatev, just pointing out facts. Trae's play has PLUMMETED since the Miami series and that is a measurable fact. Talking about "narratives" though the notion Trae is trash in the first half of seasons and is amazing in second halves is one such narrative probably bias from the rookie season where it was true and last year whre he ended the year on an incredible tear. Last three years his first half numbers are

FG%: 44.2% 3PT%: 36.9% TS%: 58% PPG: 27.5

Vs second Half:

FG%: 45.1% 3PT%: 36.1% TS%: 60% PPG: 27.9

Now compared to this year:

FG%: 41.6% 3PT% 31.1% TS% 55% PPG: 27.3

If this is not concenring to you or other poster that is fine. You have faith Trae will flip a switch and go from being one of the least efficient and effective scorers in the NBA to one of the most efficient (as he was last year before the Miami series). I am not that confident.

First, let's stop ignoring the season that is most similar to this one when we only have 4 seasons of data.  Looking at all full seasons for Trae:

CAREER AVERAGE

1st Half:  .569% TS%

2nd Half:  .598% TS%

We all know Trae is performing well under his last 3 seasons season to date.  That is concerning to me and I think should be concerning to everyone.  But unless you have a reason to give that says why you think he won't recover to his career norm of near 60% TS% in the second half, I don't think it is time to sound the alarm and dump him because he is forever damaged goods after Miami.  

Trae has exactly 1 out of 4 seasons where he performed better in the first half of the year.  In 3 out of 4 seasons, he has been better in the second half.  To me, that should give you some reason for hope that he will rebound.  And that hope is grounded in the data.