Rediscovering your jumper: John Collins Edition

[JTB]

Make a choice and let’s talk about it!

Edited May 6, 2023 by JTB

[sturt]

Um. He didn't already?

C'mon. Not fair to John. Don't be lazy. The numbers just aren't that hard to look up.

[JayBirdHawk]

Posted this is the 3pt conundrum thread:

Pre and Post Allstar 3 point shooting so before and after Quin:

4. JC - 40/161= 24.8% (51 games),  30/79 = 38.0% (20) games)

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Then there is the Kyle Korver effect:

“I call him the ‘Zen Master’ for a reason,” Collins said of his work with Korver via Jameelah Johnson’s ‘atlhawksfans’ channel on YouTube. “[I] just enjoy working with him. Really just talking about my hand placement on the ball, a lot of mental tips, and just things that I can go to mentally to lock in and I’m ready to shoot. And I feel like it’s paying off.”

 

 

 

[Diesel]

I think what needs to be realized is that if JC is shooting anywhere near a 40% clip from 3 in a Snyder offense... he's going to be really hard to replace. 

JC can do it all. 

He can rim run.  He can PNR.  He can PNP.  He can be a stand still shooter (least liked).  He can post up.  He can face up in the low or high post. 

He has a myrid of offensive abilities that we have misused by posting him on the three point line and telling him to wait his turn.  It's a shame.   He may be an allstar if we took the clamps off of him. 

He has improved something every offseason.  This offseason, it must be the dribble.   Has to be.  

But I'm more than interested in seeing him in Snyder's offense.  Snyder never had a guy this skilled.   He had Royce Oneal and Ingles (who is no slouch) but JC is better. 

 

 

 

[JTB]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

I think what needs to be realized is that if JC is shooting anywhere near a 40% clip from 3 in a Snyder offense... he's going to be really hard to replace. 

JC can do it all. 

He can rim run.  He can PNR.  He can PNP.  He can be a stand still shooter (least liked).  He can post up.  He can face up in the low or high post. 

He has a myrid of offensive abilities that we have misused by posting him on the three point line and telling him to wait his turn.  It's a shame.   He may be an allstar if we took the clamps off of him. 

He has improved something every offseason.  This offseason, it must be the dribble.   Has to be.  

But I'm more than interested in seeing him in Snyder's offense.  Snyder never had a guy this skilled.   He had Royce Oneal and Ingles (who is no slouch) but JC is better. 

 

 

 

Got it so your belief has to be to trade Capela to fully utilize all these skills JC has.

Who’s the center we bring in next to Collins so that we can see all of these offensive abilities?….or do you see Collins playing center?…..do we bring in another 4 who can shoot and just play two 4s ?

[JTB]

6 hours ago, sturt said:

Um. He didn't already?

C'mon. Not fair to John. Don't be lazy. The numbers just aren't that hard to look up.

Got it….21 games has convinced you that Collins shot is fixed or back ….whatever to you there’s no problems with his shooting.

Cool. 

So you see no need to trade Collins ? Do I have that right?

Evidently if his 3pt shooting has returned then there’s no reason to get rid of him…right ?

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

Got it….21 games has convinced you that Collins shot is fixed or back ….whatever to you there’s no problems with his shooting.

Cool. 

So you see no need to trade Collins ? Do I have that right?

Evidently if his 3pt shooting has returned then there’s no reason to get rid of him…right ?

Last 3 years: 40.01%, 39.9%, 36.4% 3pt percentages. I think that carries more weight than 50 games this season under Nate when we know that Nate had an aversion to the team taking 3s.

Than in of itself doesn't have to be the only decision maker on wether we keep or trade him.

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, JTB said:

Got it so your belief has to be to trade Capela to fully utilize all these skills JC has.

Who’s the center we bring in next to Collins so that we can see all of these offensive abilities?….or do you see Collins playing center?…..do we bring in another 4 who can shoot and just play two 4s ?

 We have options. 

WYDI 5-6 ... introduces Vuc.  He's a FA.  Chicago may SNT him to make both groups happy.   Vuc would be a guy who we wouldn't need inthe low post who is a 35% career shooter from 3.   

or

Let OO play the C and bring in some help.  I have already mentioned Clint for Delon/Gafford.   Prolly not a hit for Washington.  Maybe Clint for Delon/Filler. 

or 

Clint to Houston for some projects and cap relief.

Point is... 

We have options that can free JC up to play a game that highlights his skillset.  Quin will find it. 

 

 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, JTB said:

Got it….21 games has convinced you that Collins shot is fixed or back ….whatever to you there’s no problems with his shooting.

Cool. 

So you see no need to trade Collins ? Do I have that right?

Evidently if his 3pt shooting has returned then there’s no reason to get rid of him…right ?

Actually, the 21 games are more in line with his career 3 pt shooting than the 29% were.   We all know that JC's shooting suffered because of the Bootineer's deformity that he was oddly stricken with.  He has taken this season and played through it.  Coming on at the end and improving his shooting mechanics to compensate.   So yea, the last 21 games and the playoffs says a lot. 

 

[sturt]

4 hours ago, JTB said:

So you see no need to trade Collins ? Do I have that right?

I see fans who are naturally inclined to impatience and disregard for what history, including recent history, says about the virtue of patience.

I see need to trade anyone that Q sees need to trade. (And the converse is also true, of course.)

Until then, the following applies specific to John and Clint (first quote), and to the overall roster (second quote).

 

 

On 4/30/2023 at 8:42 PM, sturt said:

I keep hearing this. But had taken it as just hypercritical anti-JC talk or anti-CC talk, or both. I suppose it took you saying it and you saying it this explicitly for me to decide to look into it.

The numbers reflect what I thought they'd reflect, though... and accordingly, the theory needs to be modified to account for the numbers.

They have been the 6th most productive (as measured by net points) pair we ever put on the floor. And for two years running.

That's not as good as being the 1st most productive, but it's not chopped liver either.

If that pairing bothers a fan, s/he probably should be targeting almost every player on the current roster as disposable.

2022-23

2021-22

2020-21

 

  

15 hours ago, sturt said:

I did the math with a little help from Excel.

Comparing the first 8 players in the BOS rotation with the first 8 for ATL, BOS is older by an average of slightly more than 2 years of age (804 days).

When we remove their oldest and our oldest from that equation, they're older by a margin of slightly less than 2 years of age (636 days).

When we remove their two oldest and ours, they're still older by a margin of slightly less than 2 years of age (655 days).

 

Whatever you think of your Hawks today... they're two years behind what they will be.

And two years ago, where was BOS?

They were sitting at home, feeling like underachievers, and watching your Hawks go to war against the eventual NBA champions from MIL.

 

I'm one of those who believe chemistry/continuity is, more typically than not, underrated by fans--ours or anyone else's. It's less important in Manfredball (what used to be "baseball") or football because basketball is a game of continuous movement... ballet on hardwood, as it's sometimes called.

I'm one of those who also believe that maturity is, more typically than not, underrated by fans--ours or anyone else's. And that's pretty much a constant of professional sports. Theoretically if you could magically endow a random selection of 40 year-old NBA players with the physical bodies of 20 year-olds, and played them in a series against a random selection of 28 year-olds (ie, the average age of BOS' first 8), the 40 year-olds would win the vast majority of games b/c of their wisdom and experience.

 

All that to say, I've watched all the exit interviews, and it's my perception that this team is mentally poised to take a significant jump next season.

Look. No one can argue that the 2022-23 season has been a season of significant upheaval and complication in ATL: (1) Injecting a new key element into the starting line-up, (2) missing a key element on the bench for the first 1/3 of the season, and (3) relying on substantial youth on the bench with not one, not two, but three 2nd unit players who, in an earlier generation, would have still been playing at USC or Duke.

Oh yeah. Add to that changes in the lead dog of basketball ops office.

Oh yeah. Add to that change in the head coach office.

 

The analogy that comes to mind is that there's been a hard rain that beat up what we've planted... but having endured that now and with some sunny days and relative calm for awhile, and in light of recent results showing some spunk and some whiff of reason for swagger...

the futures market is looking... dare I say...

So there is reason to think the hardest part of the chemistry learning curve is past us now, and that road is straightening out considerably.

There is a building maturity.

There is reason to believe most have not yet reached their physical/talent ceiling, so there's capacity for internal improvement still.

 

I'm on record about the changes I'd most like to see (ie, "wishlist" thread). The roster can be improved, as most any roster can, even that of whatever team wins the trophy this year.

But reason persuades me that the main ingredients in the recipe are already here, and just need time to marinate and simmer.

 

( EDIT: Sounds like Landry's similarly inclined: https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-hawks/hawks-landry-fields-qa-we-are-a-different-team/UZT3T3D5W5ASREK7V7J3XGQ7LM/ )

 

 

 

 

[bird_dirt]

IDK if he’ll ever get back to 40% 3pt shooting, but he will get better. Part of it will be new coaching, and part of it will be further recovery from his hand injury. 

[AHF]

My worry with JC's 3pt shooting has almost nothing to do with coaching or scheme and everything to do with his finger.  It isn't that those things aren't important but I think the truly big difference is health.  I think he will be just fine if his finger is fine.  His shooting numbers over the last 1/4 of the season were much stronger and that gives me hope that he may have turned a corner in his rehab because from the time that he butchered his finger until his last 20 games of this season his ability to shoot 3's looked broken.  

I don't rely on his career numbers unless his finger is healthy in which case I think he should shoot a perfectly good % on a low volume number of 3's.  But it is all about whether his finger is healthy or not to me for my confidence level.

[JTB]

13 hours ago, bird_dirt said:

IDK if he’ll ever get back to 40% 3pt shooting, but he will get better. Part of it will be new coaching, and part of it will be further recovery from his hand injury. 

 

12 hours ago, AHF said:

My worry with JC's 3pt shooting has almost nothing to do with coaching or scheme and everything to do with his finger.  It isn't that those things aren't important but I think the truly big difference is health.  I think he will be just fine if his finger is fine.  His shooting numbers over the last 1/4 of the season were much stronger and that gives me hope that he may have turned a corner in his rehab because from the time that he butchered his finger until his last 20 games of this season his ability to shoot 3's looked broken.  

I don't rely on his career numbers unless his finger is healthy in which case I think he should shoot a perfectly good % on a low volume number of 3's.  But it is all about whether his finger is healthy or not to me for my confidence level.

I find it odd that the finger injury wasn’t a bigger story this season. We all saw how badly it was swollen when it first happened but was his finger truly a reason for poor shooting this season?

if so I can accept that but it just doesn’t seem like the finger was really bothering him.

[Diesel]

15 minutes ago, JTB said:

 

I find it odd that the finger injury wasn’t a bigger story this season. We all saw how badly it was swollen when it first happened but was his finger truly a reason for poor shooting this season?

if so I can accept that but it just doesn’t seem like the finger was really bothering him.

JC is tough.  If you watched some of the games, his finger is still deformed.  Plus he also had plantar Fasciitis.  He's tough for playing through that.   I watched Glen Rice with Plantar Fasciitis.   He went from a steller 3 pt shooter to an ordinary 3 pt shooter.. but he got back on track.  For Glen, it's understandable because he had a little bit of a jump with his 3 pt shot and it had to change everything.  His jump became more of a set shot with almost tip toes.    JC didn't really change his jump so maybe he wasn't effected by the Plantar F as bad.  However, I can see pain messing with your timing on the release.