Like I told you...

[kg01]

6 hours ago, Diesel said:

You're proving my point.

 

No .... you're proving my point.

[Spud2nique]

8 hours ago, Diesel said:

You're proving my point.

 

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

No .... you're proving my point.

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Spud2nique

[macdaddy]

I have no clue if it was rigged for Ewing.  I can easily believe it was because having David Stern (or anyone) reach into a box and grab an envelope is a bogus method of doing it.  Everyone knows that.  

But watch the 2023 draft lottery video and explain to me how they would rig it.   I guess they created some kind of ping pong ball machine that selects a specific ball?  And it's not even that simple.  There's a whole process going on

[Spud2nique]

1985- Ewing

2003- LeBum

2008-Rose  

2023- Wemby

 

All rigged…

 

 

[macdaddy]

I will say this, the idea of letting a human being reach in and grab an envelope for a lottery that has millions or more at stake is a laughable idea if not criminal.  So that makes the 'auditors' look like jokes.   But i still say that the current process looks difficult or impossible to rig. 

[AHF]

25 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I have no clue if it was rigged for Ewing.  I can easily believe it was because having David Stern (or anyone) reach into a box and grab an envelope is a bogus method of doing it.  Everyone knows that.  

The Ewing theory makes perfect sense for why the league might do it as well as how they might do it.  None of that makes sense for the last 15 years of process and results.  I haven't seen anything definitive on the Ewing draft but I've got an open mind that it could have been rigged.

I've seen nothing that makes me think the draft has been systemically rigged for the last 30+ years as is claimed.  No coherent motive.  No coherent method.  No evidence of either.  I've seen nothing but conjecture and that can be fun to talk about but isn't serious enough to make me think that it is plausible let alone more probable than not.

[Spud2nique]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

The Ewing theory makes perfect sense for why the league might do it as well as how they might do it.  None of that makes sense for the last 15 years of process and results.  I haven't seen anything definitive on the Ewing draft but I've got an open mind that it could have been rigged.

I've seen nothing that makes me think the draft has been systemically rigged for the last 30+ years as is claimed.  No coherent motive.  No coherent method.  No evidence of either.  I've seen nothing but conjecture and that can be fun to talk about but isn't serious enough to make me think that it is plausible let alone more probable than not.

So it was just a big coincidence that Lebron, Rose went to their hometowns, and Wemby, who was basically raised by his dad Tony Parker and his uncle Manu Gin to his great uncle Pop? It was all one big coinCADINK huh? @kg01 has lovely property for you AHF and it’s in the Montanas next to Phil Jackson’s MAIN fishing cabin. 

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

So it was just a big coincidence that Lebron, Rose went to their hometowns, and Wemby, who was basically raised by his dad Tony Parker and his uncle Manu Gin to his great uncle Pop? It was all one big coinCADINK huh? @kg01 has lovely property for you AHF and it’s in the Montanas next to Phil Jackson’s MAIN fishing cabin. 

Ohohohoh!  Me.  I"m interested in that property.   Pick me!

[Diesel]

42 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I have no clue if it was rigged for Ewing.  I can easily believe it was because having David Stern (or anyone) reach into a box and grab an envelope is a bogus method of doing it.  Everyone knows that.  

But watch the 2023 draft lottery video and explain to me how they would rig it.   I guess they created some kind of ping pong ball machine that selects a specific ball?  And it's not even that simple.  There's a whole process going on

How did Magic know that the Lakers would be in the lottery?

How did Wemby know he would be going to the Spurs?

Why did the checks and balances always check out when it was a move of Lebron?  After Lebron left, Cleveland won the lottery with 1.8 and 1.5% of a chance to win...

Technology can be made to do some fantastic things MacDaddy.  No, it's no longer reaching into a glass container and picking a bent cold envelope out last but don't doubt that technology can be made to do what you want it to do. 

Even something as simple as sleight of hand is not so simple. 

 

[Diesel]

28 minutes ago, AHF said:

The Ewing theory makes perfect sense for why the league might do it as well as how they might do it.  None of that makes sense for the last 15 years of process and results.  I haven't seen anything definitive on the Ewing draft but I've got an open mind that it could have been rigged.

I've seen nothing that makes me think the draft has been systemically rigged for the last 30+ years as is claimed.  No coherent motive.  No coherent method.  No evidence of either.  I've seen nothing but conjecture and that can be fun to talk about but isn't serious enough to make me think that it is plausible let alone more probable than not.

Your problem is that you think best player best market.   NBA has gone beyond that.  They want to grow markets.  Look at the Orlando Lottery wins.   In your mind, you say.. why not Shaq to Phi?  I guess Philly was the biggest market in the lottery at the time.   Well, the NBA proved that they wanted to grow their newest market Orlando.  Shaq's Magic went 41 and 41... barely made the lottery and won it again... Why... a Shaq/Webber Super team in Orlando would have been  must watch TV.

 

A coach that will never coach in this league again said:

“Magic’s already ensured me that we’re going to get our top three pick this year so I’m excited about that.”

This was two weeks before the draft. 

 

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

So it was just a big coincidence that Lebron, Rose went to their hometowns, and Wemby, who was basically raised by his dad Tony Parker and his uncle Manu Gin to his great uncle Pop? It was all one big coinCADINK huh? @kg01 has lovely property for you AHF and it’s in the Montanas next to Phil Jackson’s MAIN fishing cabin. 

Why would the NBA give a **** about an MVP level talent playing in his home town or about family connections?  Is the NBA a charity where they care even a little bit about how much a home town wants their guy there or how much that player wants to be there?  I think it would naive to think the NBA cares even a little about that.  Put that player in the biggest market and you'll make a lot more money than putting him in San Antonio which isn't even a significant enough media market to warrant an NFL or MLB team.  San Antonio is the 37th biggest media market.  Why rig the draft for that kind of puny return?  E&Y puts $50,000,000,000 on the line for that?  The NBA puts themselves at massive risk of destroying their own product to help the 37th biggest media market at the expense of the multiple top 10 markets?  It makes no sense at all.

You continue that out and it is a recurring issue that completely undermines the theory (wholly apart from the idea that NBA owners would accept rigging of the draft at their expense, that the NBA wouldn't just change the system to assign players if they wanted, and that it is logistically impossible for me to see how that kind of secret remains under wraps for almost 40 years).

Take the case of Cleveland.  Why would the NBA keep rigging the draft for them?  They are the 17th biggest media market.  They are so far from New York or LA it isn't funny.  How does LeBron make more money for the NBA in Cleveland than in LA or New York both of whom were in that same lottery?  Why would a team like the Knicks willingly let the NBA rig the lottery to give the biggest star of his generation away to rival small market Cleveland?  They spent a ton of money trying to win and trying to land a huge star unsuccessfully but they are just going to roll over, pay the luxury tax, and let LeBron get away from them in a rigged lottery?  It makes not a lick of sense for the league as a whole or for the individual teams to let that happen.  Cleveland having the worst record in the league gave them the best chance to win the lottery.  So that makes it less than a great shock to see them actually win it and conversely makes that pretty weak sauce as evidence of a conspiracy.

Not shockingly, most of the situations you cite are teams that had very high lottery odds (like Cleveland which had the league's worst record and San Antonio which had the second worst record).  The one that doesn't fit that is Chicago winning with Rose.  They are at least a big market and beat low odds.  Now they are dwarfed by New York and LA which were repeatedly in the lottery over the years without big results but at least Chicago is one data point that would strengthen a theory that the league is rigging the draft.  It just isn't supported by much else and certainly not a pattern of favoring those big market teams.

[AHF]

Just now, Diesel said:

Your problem is that you think best player best market.   NBA has gone beyond that.  They want to grow markets.  Look at the Orlando Lottery wins.   In your mind, you say.. why not Shaq to Phi?  I guess Philly was the biggest market in the lottery at the time.   Well, the NBA proved that they wanted to grow their newest market Orlando.  Shaq's Magic went 41 and 41... barely made the lottery and won it again... Why... a Shaq/Webber Super team in Orlando would have been  must watch TV.

 

A coach that will never coach in this league again said:

“Magic’s already ensured me that we’re going to get our top three pick this year so I’m excited about that.”

This was two weeks before the draft. 

 

I don't believe for a second that the NBA is going to cost itself money by favoring small market teams.  But I do see  you have now created a conspiracy theory that cannot be debunked.

You claim that cheating can be done undetectably.  If a big market team wins the NBA is favoring those big markets like you'd expect.  When tiny markets win it is because they are trying grow markets.  There is no consistent through line.  No explanation why other owners would participate in the scheme.  

I'm dropping out of the conversation until you have actual evidence because at this point there is literally not a scenario that can't be twisted into this theory because there is zero consistency in the goals that are trying to be achieved here.  Just the idea that the league would put the integrity of its multi-billion dollar industry on the line and lock in lower financial returns for the nebulous purpose of growing small markets?  As if Orlando is some NBA mecha making mint for the rest of the league.  Nope.  You are never going to sell me on that theory.

[Diesel]

I borrowed this, but this is how I see it...

The lottery was initially put in place to prevent teams from purposely losing games in order to get either the #1 or #2 pick in the draft (before 1985, the worst team from each conference flipped a coin to determine who was first or second; from there, teams were ranked by record, worst-to-best).

In the end, the NBA is all about money, which comes from audiences. Ad revenue, attendance, jersey sales, contracts with major apparel companies, etc., is all fed by us consumers wanting to support either a particular team or a particular player.

So, it’s in the best interests of the NBA to:

1. Support big market teams that have large populations and lots of cash to throw around
2. Promote feel-good stories, like a player that has lived his whole life in a city with an NBA franchise
3. Fix perceived “errors” that have been made in the NBA

So, what evidence do we have of these things? I’m going to skip two of the frequently discussed items (1985 Knicks and 2003 Cavaliers) because they were actually just luck-of-the draw.

1993: In 1989, the Orlando Magic entered the league as an expansion team, along with three other teams including the Miami Heat. In the early years, both teams floundered, but in 1992, the Magic won the first pick in the draft, selecting consensus number one, Shaquille O’Neal. In his rookie year, the Magic went 42–42, a shockingly good record. Excitement was building for the Magic, and with the NBA wanting to push more into Florida, it may have seemed far-fetched to imagine Orlando would get the number one pick…heck, they only had a 1.52% chance of getting it…which they did.

2008: Derrick Rose, a Chicago-native ending his freshman year in college, was viewed by most as the #1 pick in the draft. The Chicago Bulls were coming off of a bad season, but compared to several other teams, it wasn’t that bad; thus, they were given a 1.7% chance of winning the number one pick…which they did win.

2011: After the 2009-2010 season, Lebron James left his hometown team to form the first “superteam” of the modern era. There was a considerable amount of grumbling by NBA officials that, while this did create mega-ratings…it wasn’t right. In 2011, the Cavaliers had the 2nd worst record in the league and they had their pick plus the Clippers’ pick, a team that had finished with the 8th worst record; the lottery ended with the Cavs holding the #1 and #4 picks.

2012: The city of New Orleans was still rebuilding from Katrina, and the Pelicans had just been sold by the NBA back to a private owner (the previous owner had basically abandoned the franchise). They had also just been practically forced to trade their best player, Chris Paul, to the LA Clippers. While the Pelicans had the 4th worst record in the league, I’m sure you know by now they got the #1 pick.

2013: With the Cleveland Cavaliers still struggling, and the Lebron James ego trip still in full-swing, they finished the season with the 3rd worst record in the NBA…and the #1 pick.

2014: With the Cavs becoming respectable, they finished the season with the 9th worst record in the league, a 1.7% chance at the #1 pick…they won it anyway.

2017: Three of the five biggest market teams (Boston, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia) end up ranked 1, 2, and 3, pushing many smaller market teams down in the draft order.

2019: the 2018–2019 NBA season saw some of the most despicable behavior seen in years. Lebron James had signed with the LA Lakers, planning to take the team to the top (while also solidifying a foothold in Hollywood). The season quickly saw the team losing, and it was the worst-kept secret in the league that Lebron was pressuring the Lakers to trade several players to New Orleans for superstar Anthony Davis, who shared an agent with James and had made clear he was done in New Orleans. The NBA elected not to intervene, but with it being obvious that Davis is leaving, they had to do something. So, with a 6% chance of winning the #1 pick…they did.

[AHF]

I don't believe for a second that owners do charity for one another at their own expense.  But I like the optimism of your utopian NBA that is needed to support 40 years of rigging the draft lottery.  This whole theory has a disregard for dollars and self-interest that one would rarely associate with the type of people rich enough to own teams.  I don't buy that conspiracy theory for a second for lots of reasons, but it requires such a positive and optimistic view on the generosity of these owners willingly ceding top picks to their smaller market competitors that I think I've found a real upside to it.

[Diesel]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't believe for a second that the NBA is going to cost itself money by favoring small market teams.

In your world... where only the big market teams should get the best players...

How expansive do you think the NBA would be?

If the only teams that had a chance of winning were superteams in NY, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, and LA...   How much could the NBA expand?

Stern and company figured out that to make the tide rise, you have to give some markets a ship that can compete. 

The Vancouver Grizzlies died because they couldn't develop a fan base because they never had stars who could win.   New Orleans almost died.   I mean, if you really want to prove the theory.. N.O. is the place to go.   To get new ownership, they were given a lottery win AD.. When AD left, they were given a lottery win... Zion... (As soon as he left).   In the meanwhile, to keep N.O. sustaining before they new ownership, David Stern cancelled the CP3 to LAL trade. 

Stern and Company figured out that to keep teams alive, every now and then you have to give the small teams a player that can grow that market.   The Draft lottery is simply Checks and Balances. 

 

Here's three reasons you can consider...

So, it’s in the best interests of the NBA to:

1. Support big market teams that have large populations and lots of cash to throw around
2. Promote feel-good stories, like a player that has lived his whole life in a city with an NBA franchise
3. Fix perceived “errors” that have been made in the NBA

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't believe for a second that owners do charity for one another at their own expense.  But I like the optimism of your utopian NBA that is needed to support 40 years of rigging the draft lottery.  This whole theory has a disregard for dollars and self-interest that one would rarely associate with the type of people rich enough to own teams.  I don't buy that conspiracy theory for a second for lots of reasons, but it requires such a positive and optimistic view on the generosity of these owners willingly ceding top picks to their smaller market competitors that I think I've found a real upside to it.

If you can believe that the first draft lottery  was rigged....

And it was clearly rigged...

What makes you think they would stop and do it by the book?

You can rationalize why they would rig the draft lottery in 1985.  Then with the great success of that rigging and nobody finding out... you believe Stern came into the office and say.. "Ok Boys, we got away with it that time... from now own, we will work on a system of randomness...  we will let FATE decide what happens to our league. ". 

 

OK....

[Spud2nique]

28 minutes ago, AHF said:

****

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, Diesel said:

  This whole theory has a disregard for dollars and self-interest that one would rarely associate with the type of people rich enough to own teams. 

Pat Ewing going to NY saved the NBA.   Nobody would have given a TV contract if Pat Ewing goes to Sacramento.   I read where Stan Kasten was told about Ewing going to NY before the Lottery.   No owner cried about it because Stern did what was best for the league.   Every owner knows that 100% of nothing = Nothing.    So the job of the commissioner is the make the owners money and as long as he does that, they don't complain.   I showed you the other day how much they prosper off of the TV contract.   Most of them don't give a damn about winning. 

If an owner can make more money  by having a great "gate" and a share of the TV contract... they will care less about winning. 

How many owners have Florida Marlins this thing?  How many has gone out and spent goobs of money to build a championship team?  Championship players become Free agents every year.   If they cared so much about winning championships... No Owner would fear a Luxury Tax.

 

 

[macdaddy]

The big question then is why didn't we get Dwight Howard? 

[kg01]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

So it was just a big coincidence that Lebron, Rose went to their hometowns, and Wemby, who was basically raised by his dad Tony Parker and his uncle Manu Gin to his great uncle Pop? It was all one big coinCADINK huh? @kg01 has lovely property for you AHF and it’s in the Montanas next to Phil Jackson’s MAIN fishing cabin. 

Honestly, if dies-o was ... cagey, he would've led with these.  I got no discernible argument against these being rigged.