If Ressler did not "evade" the tax, here is what we would be looking at going into next season.

[JayBirdHawk]

On 12/15/2023 at 10:02 AM, macdaddy said:

It's a good exercise and i get what you are saying but I'd say there would have been different decisions made had we hung onto Kevin and JC.  Especially Kevin.  I don't think anyone is suggesting we just hang onto everyone and do nothing.  I think we're saying casting out talent and not acquiring much new talent isn't a good thing.  The proof is on the court. 

 

Exactly this.

Bogi returned from his injury last year on fire, Hawks may have been able to consolidate him plus stuff to get better, he most likely would also have not been extended in the year, so this would be his last season, so he wouldn't be on next seasons roster. Or Capela might have been traded and/or not extended...maybe traded for a different, cheaper C. Point is we weren't given a chance to see what we could be the prior offseason.

It's all revisionist now - let's see what's next.

[AHF]

On 12/17/2023 at 1:08 PM, Final_quest said:

That's where you guys are really struggling.  There are only 8-9 players in a rotation.  This is a .500 team that is scheduled to be over the tax in the next year AND you are trying to bring in an allstar that will cost your team even more (Siakam).  So, how is the play to overpay for a guy like Thybulle who is a RFA while negotiating for Siakam?  Thybulle plays the same position as Hunter, Bey, and AJ.  

Portland matched his offer at 3 years $33M.  One immediate problem is we wouldn't be able to even offer an RFA that much money.  So this is a fantasy signing with no legs from the start.  Second problem is you don't even have a rotation spot for him going into the season.  Third MAJOR problem is you are trying to give yourself enough cap room against the luxury tax next season to retain Bey who had the highest plus minus on the team.  If you bring in Thybulle and Siakam, you have almost no shot at retaining Bey.  
 

Are you saying we didn't have the MLE available last offseason?  I'm pretty sure we did.  I think he is an excellent long-term deal.  If Bey really wants $20M+, I'd prefer Thybulle for our team at that price even though I like Bey.  

As an aside, we've played Trae 36 minutes a game and DM over 34 minutes a game.  You can cut a few minutes a game from there.  You've given 500 minutes to Mat(t)hews, Mills, Forrest and AJ.  Between those two sources, that puts Thybulle right there with OO and CC for minutes on the season.  You could also cut a few minutes from Hunter and Bey who are playing a little over 30 per game.

Seems to me we've had plenty of room to give him minutes that could have made a real difference on this team as starved as we've been for impact defenders.

[Final_quest]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

Are you saying we didn't have the MLE available last offseason?  I'm pretty sure we did.  I think he is an excellent long-term deal.  If Bey really wants $20M+, I'd prefer Thybulle for our team at that price even though I like Bey.  

As an aside, we've played Trae 36 minutes a game and DM over 34 minutes a game.  You can cut a few minutes a game from there.  You've given 500 minutes to Mat(t)hews, Mills, Forrest and AJ.  Between those two sources, that puts Thybulle right there with OO and CC for minutes on the season.  You could also cut a few minutes from Hunter and Bey who are playing a little over 30 per game.

Seems to me we've had plenty of room to give him minutes that could have made a real difference on this team as starved as we've been for impact defenders.

I’m saying Portland matched the max we had to offer for Thybulle.

Also, if you bring in Thybulle before Siakam you already have Bey, Bogi, and AJ.  That is your bench unit at Thybulle’s position.  Do you invest $33M in future commitments at a position you have covered when you just had to cut JC due to a salary crunch?  Who signs a guy that might not even make the rotation?  Plus you also just drafted Bufkin and Lundy.  

Hindsight is 20/20 with injuries and AJ’s decline.  At that moment last summer Thybulle didn’t fit our plan, but we couldn’t sign him anyways.  He was matched.  

Still, teams don’t sign an 11th and 12th player on their roster for the full MLE.  Maybe for a title run?  I think our issue is our core, but you guys seem like you want a stronger 10th, 11th, and 12th man.  Sure pay Huerter to play behind Bogi and Murray.   I just don’t think that’s the right formula.  Focus on your top 8.

You can’t fix a flawed top 8 with a stronger 10th man, but you can pay the luxury tax and try it.   

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I’m saying Portland matched the max we had to offer for Thybulle.

Also, if you bring in Thybulle before Siakam you already have Bey, Bogi, and AJ.  That is your bench unit at Thybulle’s position.  Do you invest $33M in future commitments at a position you have covered when you just had to cut JC due to a salary crunch?  Who signs a guy that might not even make the rotation?  Plus you also just drafted Bufkin and Lundy.  

Hindsight is 20/20 with injuries and AJ’s decline.  At that moment last summer Thybulle didn’t fit our plan, but we couldn’t sign him anyways.  He was matched.  

Still, teams don’t sign an 11th and 12th player on their roster for the full MLE.  Maybe for a title run?  I think our issue is our core, but you guys seem like you want a stronger 10th, 11th, and 12th man.  Sure pay Huerter to play behind Bogi and Murray.   I just don’t think that’s the right formula.  Focus on your top 8.

You can’t fix a flawed top 8 with a stronger 10th man, but you can pay the luxury tax and try it.   

Are you really pretending he would have been an 11th or 12th man on our roster as our best perimeter defender?  Come on.  He was a 2x All-NBA Defense player.  You can at least make the case that Bogi and Huerter had duplicative skill sets.  That isn't the case with someone like him.  

As for Thybulle's contract, he signed a deal that was less than the MLE.  He could have been paid $12.4M this year.  Instead he is getting $10.5M.  That means we didn't even try to add him.  He signed a 3 year, $33M deal when his max MLE contract would have been 4 years, $54M.  That is too rich for us?  If so, we aren't spending money wisely.  If we add Siakam (as you claim was and still is the plan), it would sure be nice to throw an All-NBA defender on the wing with him when we need a stop.  No chance of that anytime soon even if we add Pascal tomorrow.

Again, we are $9.7M under the tax threshold and signed Matthews for $3M (counting a little over $2M against the cap).  Combine those and you are at $11.7M in space which would have been an offer 11% better than what he got.  You can offer the full MLE and avoid the tax pretty easily when you only need to shave less than $1M off your payroll and if you trade for Siakam I keep hearing we will not hesitate to pay the tax so with that as Plan #1 we shouldn't be that scared of sitting in a tax paying position in December.

[Final_quest]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

Are you really pretending he would have been an 11th or 12th man on our roster as our best perimeter defender?  Come on.  He was a 2x All-NBA Defense player.  You can at least make the case that Bogi and Huerter had duplicative skill sets.  That isn't the case with someone like him.  

As for Thybulle's contract, he signed a deal that was less than the MLE.  He could have been paid $12.4M this year.  Instead he is getting $10.5M.  That means we didn't even try to add him.  He signed a 3 year, $33M deal when his max MLE contract would have been 4 years, $54M.  That is too rich for us?  If so, we aren't spending money wisely.  If we add Siakam (as you claim was and still is the plan), it would sure be nice to throw an All-NBA defender on the wing with him when we need a stop.  No chance of that anytime soon even if we add Pascal tomorrow.

Again, we are $9.7M under the tax threshold and signed Matthews for $3M (counting a little over $2M against the cap).  Combine those and you are at $11.7M in space which would have been an offer 11% better than what he got.  You can offer the full MLE and avoid the tax pretty easily when you only need to shave less than $1M off your payroll and if you trade for Siakam I keep hearing we will not hesitate to pay the tax so with that as Plan #1 we shouldn't be that scared of sitting in a tax paying position in December.

The Siakam “claim” is based on multiple reports.  Are you denying that they made a huge push to sign Siakam?

Also, are you suggesting Portland matches $10.5M for Thybulle but not $12M?  The idea has no legs.  
 

If Thybulle is in the rotation who is out?  He does help, sure.  But he wouldn’t fix your core.  If he replaces Bey, why did we just spend 5 picks on Bey?  If he replaces Bogi, that’s a waste of a 6th man candidate.  He would have been 10th man at best.  

[JayBirdHawk]

14 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Also, are you suggesting Portland matches $10.5M for Thybulle but not $12M?  The idea has no legs.  

He signed a 2+1 (P.O.)... I think @AHF said Hawks offer a 4yr deal in his hypothetical. The extra year might be the difference maker for PTL. Teams add additional stuff like trade kickers,  contract structure, etc to deter teams from matching as well.

Like I said, it's all revisionist while we wait.

[Final_quest]

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

He signed a 2+1 (P.O.)... I think @AHF said Hawks offer a 4yr deal in his hypothetical. The extra year might be the difference maker for PTL. Teams add additional stuff like trade kickers,  contract structure, etc to deter teams from matching as well.

Like I said, it's all revisionist while we wait.

I see this Thybulle take as extreme revisionism.  Denying they were serious about Siakam, or at least hinting it was lip service, and telling me signing Thybulle for a 4 year deal would have been the right move.  

If we had signed Thybulle to a 4 year deal while retaining Bey, Hunter, Bogi, Murray, and AJ, this board would have gone ballistic.  Why cut Collins to sign Thybulle as our 4th SF?  Especially to a 4 year deal?  And to look at me straight in the face and tell me this take isn't completely tainted by our results and injuries this year.  

I know you guys want to see Tony pay and go into the luxury tax, but there's no credibility to this suggestion.  None.  Doesn't it make a lot more sense that they WANTED Siakam vs signing a 4 year deal for Thybulle?  The Siakam stuff had tons of reports to suggest it was serious, and it would have paired Trae with a killer PnR threat.  Playing Thybulle over Bey hardly moves the needle.    

[JayBirdHawk]

58 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I see this Thybulle take as extreme revisionism.  Denying they were serious about Siakam, or at least hinting it was lip service, and telling me signing Thybulle for a 4 year deal would have been the right move.  

If we had signed Thybulle to a 4 year deal while retaining Bey, Hunter, Bogi, Murray, and AJ, this board would have gone ballistic.  Why cut Collins to sign Thybulle as our 4th SF?  Especially to a 4 year deal?  And to look at me straight in the face and tell me this take isn't completely tainted by our results and injuries this year.  

I know you guys want to see Tony pay and go into the luxury tax, but there's no credibility to this suggestion.  None.  Doesn't it make a lot more sense that they WANTED Siakam vs signing a 4 year deal for Thybulle?  The Siakam stuff had tons of reports to suggest it was serious, and it would have paired Trae with a killer PnR threat.  Playing Thybulle over Bey hardly moves the needle.    

Who said the Siakam talks weren't credible/serious. All I know I said was it didn't mean we'd go into the tax since we'd be sending out close to matching salary with Hunter, Mills and AJ.

What do you think about @Vol4ever saying that ownership nixed a deal a few weeks ago to avoid paying two big salaries or @Sothron saying the Hawks are only looking to make small moves? Just rumors, but still......

[Final_quest]

8 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

What do you think about @Vol4ever saying that ownership nixed a deal a few weeks ago to avoid paying two big salaries or @Sothron saying the Hawks are only looking to make small moves? Just rumors, but still......

Definitely concerning.  

[JayBirdHawk]

52....the number of days until the Feb 8th trade deadline. Let's revisit then. Meanwhile, these guys are waiting to check into a game 

[AHF]

12 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

He signed a 2+1 (P.O.)... I think @AHF said Hawks offer a 4yr deal in his hypothetical. The extra year might be the difference maker for PTL. Teams add additional stuff like trade kickers,  contract structure, etc to deter teams from matching as well.

Like I said, it's all revisionist while we wait.

Am I missing something or did Thybulle not sign for millions less than he could have gotten over 3 years?  I’m not stuck on 4 years.  He could have done 3 years and gotten about $6M more, right?

The bigger point is we are almost $10M below the tax line and could have signed a much better player than Wes Matthews.  But we focused our energy on shedding salary and ended up with scraps on a team that needed depth beyond the top 8.  Out 9+ roster may be the worst in the league and JJ, Hunter, Bogi, and OO all have extensive injury histories so the odds of encountering injuries was extremely high and foreseeable,  Siakam doesn’t fix our roster depth problem - we should have addressed it before we make a move for him and we could still be under the tax line and holding a massive TPE.

[Final_quest]

11 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Who said the Siakam talks weren't credible/serious. All I know I said was it didn't mean we'd go into the tax since we'd be sending out close to matching salary with Hunter, Mills and AJ.

That came from this line: "If we add Siakam (as you claim was...the plan)."  And this word "revisionism".   I'm not saying anything that wasn't reported.  Why is this claim unique to me "as YOU are claiming"?  What am I revising? 

I understand the wisdom in trading Huerter when you need to replenish draft capital and have Bogi as a duplicate skill set.  I also understand positioning yourself to get an actual difference maker like Siakam instead of adding someone who doesn't move the needle like Thybulle.  

It seemed like they were being smart and pushing to bring in allstar level talent.  It worked with Murray and failed with Siakam.  The tax/cap is a distraction from that effort.  I'm also not hung up on what happens at the trade deadline. 

I will react to an inside report that they are not willing to pay for a second star.  That is a new detail.  If true it kills the Trae era, but I'm not sure it is true.  They just pursued a second big salary all summer.  So, that would be a change.  If they try to bring in a real player and fail at the trade deadline, I won't see it as anything other than that.  If the owner really is trying, I'm in support of that effort even if it fails.  

 

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Am I missing something or did Thybulle not sign for millions less than he could have gotten over 3 years?  I’m not stuck on 4 years.  He could have done 3 years and gotten about $6M more, right?

The bigger point is we are almost $10M below the tax line and could have signed a much better player than Wes Matthews.  But we focused our energy on shedding salary and ended up with scraps on a team that needed depth beyond the top 8.  Out 9+ roster may be the worst in the league and JJ, Hunter, Bogi, and OO all have extensive injury histories so the odds of encountering injuries was extremely high and foreseeable,  Siakam doesn’t fix our roster depth problem - we should have addressed it before we make a move for him and we could still be under the tax line and holding a massive TPE.

The Thybulle stuff is ridiculous to me.  I wouldn't want him for a long contract anyways, but if you think Portland would match at 10.5 but not 12 that sounds like a desperate argument/position.    

My point on not signing someone AFTER losing on Siakam is there was probably not a good option.  That is why you went straight to guys signed BEFORE the Siakam dust settled.  But again this keeps coming back to strengthening our 9th and 10th man.  Why is that a focus? 

The Celtics, first team I checked, have only 5 guys above $10M in salary.  Their 6th highest paid guy is Payton Pritchard at $4M.  Milwaukee only has 5 players paid $10M or more.  Find me 3 teams that pay their 9th man $12M.  You guys are advocating for a losing strategy.  You win with your best players.  

[Final_quest]

Looking at a few of the best teams in the NBA they all seem to have 5 guys paid $10M or more.  That is where our focus should be, those 5 guys.  That's why immediately after the ECF run I advocated for consolidating and bringing in a better second best player.  No one thought that was good idea at the time.

Now I'm telling you guys having three SFs or three SGs that all make more than $10M is not a success recipe either.  We would be a better team and it would mean Tony pays the tax, but that's not following a contender formula.  Paying a guy more than $10M/year in case one of your rotation players gets injured.  No one does that.  Extremely foolish thinking.  

[AHF]

24 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

 

The Thybulle stuff is ridiculous to me.  I wouldn't want him for a long contract anyways, but if you think Portland would match at 10.5 but not 12 that sounds like a desperate argument/position.    

My point on not signing someone AFTER losing on Siakam is there was probably not a good option.  That is why you went straight to guys signed BEFORE the Siakam dust settled.  But again this keeps coming back to strengthening our 9th and 10th man.  Why is that a focus? 

The Celtics, first team I checked, have only 5 guys above $10M in salary.  Their 6th highest paid guy is Payton Pritchard at $4M.  Milwaukee only has 5 players paid $10M or more.  Find me 3 teams that pay their 9th man $12M.  You guys are advocating for a losing strategy.  You win with your best players.  

Not sure if you are trying yo actually respond to me at this point.  I gave multiple examples of useful player available in FA and said our roster is the worst in the league after our top 8.  We ended up fixated on Thybulle because you pretended like you didn’t understand that he was an All-NBA defender and was just some rando 10-12 guy for a rotation.  
 

If an owner is serious about winning and has more ability to add players than anyone else in the league via exceptions you do more than Garrison Mathews, Wes Matthews, Trent Forrest, Patty Mills, and 3 rookies who aren’t even close to playing minutes.  
 

Let’s add anyone who will help this team win games during FA when those players come without giving up assets in a trade.  When you add Wes Matthews you aren’t trying to win - you are bringing in a vet to win.  Boston is an extremely top heavy team that I don’t think is a true comparator to us but sure let’s use them.  They have Pritchard, Kormet, Brissit, Banton, Queta, and Stevens on their not so deep bench.  Know what all of those players have in common?  They each individually have the same or more Win Shares than the COMBINED TOTAL of our 9-15 players on the roster.  I doubt there is a team that has gotten less from their non-top 8 players than we have despite ample opportunities with injuries to JJ, Hunter and others.  
 

And, again, those injuries were not just foreseeable but expected.  You don’t know who is going to get hurt but if you are counting on our team to be healthy you aren’t paying attention to our player’s history.  But supposedly we are adding Siakam and leaping into contender status because we are serious about contending and we have been carefully and deliberately managing our roster to ensure a healthy and competitive roster for years to come after dealing our pick for 3 years for DM.

I just don’t have the faith in our owner and management that you do.  And, yes, I’d love to have a Thybulle on this team this year.  I haven’t forgotten how important Sefolosha was when he was here.

Even adding Thybulle WOULD NOT mean that Tony pays the tax.  We could have paid him more than he got and ended up under the tax threshold.  We could have easily added a different player via FA or trade who would meaningfully make the team better and still been under the tax line.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Same story...different day.

Full Koonin interview...4:45PM time stamp

https://www.audacy.com/stations/929thegame/shows/dukes-bell-757f8/episodes/c5b784f4546b?action=AUTOPLAY_FULL&actionContentId=101-409

 

 

 

[AHF]

We’re going to tell the fans that money is no object.  We’re going to pay for below average results.  We’re going to use below average results to justify not paying an above average payroll.  Rinse and repeat.