The Biggest Sacred Cow in Atlanta!!!

[macdaddy]

17 minutes ago, Diesel said:

OO last year > OO then. 

DJ >> Kev. 

JC last year < JC then 

CC last year < CC then

Dre last year > Solo.

Aholi < Lou

Bey > Snell

JJ < Gallo

I don't think that there is that great of a difference if a difference towards last year being worst at all. 

 

Here's our playoff rotations.  Cam who had a few good games in one series.  Hunter in another

Starters:

ECF - Trae/Bogi/Kev(hunter)/JC/CC

2023 - Trae/DJ/Hunter/JC/CC

I'll take the ECF even though DJ/Hunter should be much better.  But the difference between JC/CC ECF and 2023 is too big.   At worst case starters are a wash

Bench:

ECF - Gallo/Lou/Cam(Kev) - Solo and OO played low minutes but were very effective 

2023 - Bogi/Bey/OO

Bench is not even close.  Why do folks want to ignore what Gallo/Lou did for us that year.  We've never replaced them and without them we were a first round exit at best.  

[Vol4ever]

50 minutes ago, Diesel said:

In every blown big lead... the Coach did something wrong.   Even if it's he didn't call a T.O. to stop the momentum.  It still comes down to what the coach did. 

The other night is a prime example.   We were up by 35 on the Spurs.  We come out of the Half and going into the 4th, the lead was around 6.   Two questions that lead us to a conclusion.

1.  What happened that allowed us to get a 35 point lead?

2.  What happened to let us give up 29  of those points.

Barring an injured player... it falls back to the coaching.   Even a series or two where the players may have made a blunder and allowed the other team to get easy scores.. let's say 2 4pt plays in a row... that's still only 8 points.    And if it is the same player.. why didn't the coach PULL HIM. 

The answer to those two questions leads me to the Coach is not adjusting to adjustments.   This is what they saw in Utah.

 

 

I disagree here Diesel.  Reason the big leads go away we keep jacking threes with 15 secs or more left on the shot clock.  Its basic lack of basketball IQ and every single player does it.  

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, Vol4ever said:

I disagree here Diesel.  Reason the big leads go away we keep jacking threes with 15 secs or more left on the shot clock.  Its basic lack of basketball IQ and every single player does it.  

A combo of that and trying to 'protect' a 1 point lead with 3 minutes left by just dribbling out the shot clock and not running the offense.  

[Diesel]

31 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Here's our playoff rotations.  Cam who had a few good games in one series.  Hunter in another

Starters:

ECF - Trae/Bogi/Kev(hunter)/JC/CC

2023 - Trae/DJ/Hunter/JC/CC

I'll take the ECF even though DJ/Hunter should be much better.  But the difference between JC/CC ECF and 2023 is too big.   At worst case starters are a wash

Bench:

ECF - Gallo/Lou/Cam(Kev) - Solo and OO played low minutes but were very effective 

2023 - Bogi/Bey/OO

Bench is not even close.  Why do folks want to ignore what Gallo/Lou did for us that year.  We've never replaced them and without them we were a first round exit at best.  

Ok... let's talk Lou.  Didn't we replace Lou with Delon.  I think that's a fair replacement.   We forget that by the end, Lou was hampered very badly.   We should have kept Delon...

You are right about Gallo.   We did not replace him...even though we had JJ, we didn't use him. 

 

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

I disagree here Diesel.  Reason the big leads go away we keep jacking threes with 15 secs or more left on the shot clock.  Its basic lack of basketball IQ and every single player does it.  

No.. When your coach is the one on the sideline, clapping saying... keep firing... that is coaching.   Quin's philosophy is just that... keep shooting.   And that's why he failed at Utah. 

“You hear it all the time when teams are missing, you say, ‘Hey, stop shooting, get to the line, get to the rim,’” Jazz head coach Quin Snyder said. “Those things are true, I just don’t think you stop shooting. I think you get to the rim, and you get to the line, and you keep shooting. Whatever a combination those things come in, I thought our guys had a pretty good feel for that balance. If we’re getting good looks, there’s no reason not to shoot them.”

and again..

“If you look at how we play, if we pass those shots up, the likelihood of us getting a better shot throughout the possession goes way down,” Snyder said. “We also have a chance to turn the ball over, we may not have a chance to offensive rebound, so there’s a lot of things that go into it. I do think it’s a mindset that you can’t get discouraged, and we have to believe in who we are. We have to double-down.”

And in another article...

Hood became especially focused after Snyder got on his case for not shooting when he wanted him to.

"I don’t want him to ever pass up a shot," Snyder explained. "He broke a smile when I told him I was going to take him out if he didn't shoot. It’s always good when you laugh at the coach’s jokes."

Hood smiled again when that situation was brought up by media.

"He drew up a play for me to shoot it," Hood said. "I didn’t feel comfortable shooting it. He yelled at me. From then on, I just kept firing away. It’s exactly what he’s saying. 'Keep firing away and they’ll start to fall.'"

 

Kyle Korver loved this guy because Kyle became an disciple of this religion.  Everybody shoot and keep on shooting and eventually, our shooting will take over the game.  It's playing the averages that we can get hot enough to win the game by bombing threes.   For it to work, you need a whole team of guys who shoot near 38% from three.   We don't have that.   So we see ourselves going up.. and then shooting ourselves right out of the lead.   All the while, Quin is smiling because they are doing what he coached them to do.

In Utah, he had Mitchell, IsoJoe, Engles, Korver,  Hood, and a few other guys who could shoot and he had Gobert to clean up all the misses.   That worked until you got into the playoffs and teams were able to cover your shooters at will.  Bey will never stop shooting because that's what Coach Quin wants him to do. 

[Vol4ever]

3 minutes ago, Diesel said:

No.. When your coach is the one on the sideline, clapping saying... keep firing... that is coaching.   Quin's philosophy is just that... keep shooting.   And that's why he failed at Utah. 

“You hear it all the time when teams are missing, you say, ‘Hey, stop shooting, get to the line, get to the rim,’” Jazz head coach Quin Snyder said. “Those things are true, I just don’t think you stop shooting. I think you get to the rim, and you get to the line, and you keep shooting. Whatever a combination those things come in, I thought our guys had a pretty good feel for that balance. If we’re getting good looks, there’s no reason not to shoot them.”

and again..

“If you look at how we play, if we pass those shots up, the likelihood of us getting a better shot throughout the possession goes way down,” Snyder said. “We also have a chance to turn the ball over, we may not have a chance to offensive rebound, so there’s a lot of things that go into it. I do think it’s a mindset that you can’t get discouraged, and we have to believe in who we are. We have to double-down.”

And in another article...

Hood became especially focused after Snyder got on his case for not shooting when he wanted him to.

"I don’t want him to ever pass up a shot," Snyder explained. "He broke a smile when I told him I was going to take him out if he didn't shoot. It’s always good when you laugh at the coach’s jokes."

Hood smiled again when that situation was brought up by media.

"He drew up a play for me to shoot it," Hood said. "I didn’t feel comfortable shooting it. He yelled at me. From then on, I just kept firing away. It’s exactly what he’s saying. 'Keep firing away and they’ll start to fall.'"

 

Kyle Korver loved this guy because Kyle became an disciple of this religion.  Everybody shoot and keep on shooting and eventually, our shooting will take over the game.  It's playing the averages that we can get hot enough to win the game by bombing threes.   For it to work, you need a whole team of guys who shoot near 38% from three.   We don't have that.   So we see ourselves going up.. and then shooting ourselves right out of the lead.   All the while, Quin is smiling because they are doing what he coached them to do.

In Utah, he had Mitchell, IsoJoe, Engles, Korver,  Hood, and a few other guys who could shoot and he had Gobert to clean up all the misses.   That worked until you got into the playoffs and teams were able to cover your shooters at will.  Bey will never stop shooting because that's what Coach Quin wants him to do. 

Good points.  I would add he said get to the rim, we don't do that.  We keep jacking 3's.   Its a losing proposition unless you have great 3 pt shooters.  Bogi and Trae are out best but not at the top.   Big guy on Orlando was taking his time and draining 3s last night for Orlando.  

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

Good points.  I would add he said get to the rim, we don't do that.  We keep jacking 3's.   Its a losing proposition unless you have great 3 pt shooters.  Bogi and Trae are out best but not at the top.   Big guy on Orlando was taking his time and draining 3s last night for Orlando.  

People dog Trae... but Trae gets to the line by going at the rim.   Last night, Trae couldn't hit water from the beach.... so he started the PNR game... and made Jalen Suggs and Okoko his foul patrol

Also... JJ attacks the rim instead of settling for threes. 

We win in spite of what Quin expects us to do..

Moreover, in the last few weeks, DJ has been turning on his middy game...  This is where Quin has failed the most.   
Let DJ be the master of the Middy.. it will give us much better returns.. he can shoot the three also but let him shoot the middy and run the break.

 

[JeffS17]

5 minutes ago, Diesel said:

We win in spite of what Quin expects us to do..

What are you talking about lol Quin's philosophy isn't "jack up threes every possession". 

If you didn't watch the Utah offense, I understand you probably don't have a great feel for what he's trying to do, but his offense is tons of ball movement and attacking into space to create open dunks/layups first and foremost, and open threes if the defense collapses.  We just don't have the personnel to execute it well because we have such limited offensive players. 

You see JJ playing well within the offense -- good at attacking space and a good passer (still a lot of refining to do) and Trae is obviously elite, but everyone else..... Saddiq is one-dimensional on his drives and rarely finds the open man, Clint cannot pass or hold onto the ball to save his life, Bogi's bias is to jack up ill-advised threes half the time, and Murray frankly doesn't seem bought in at all.  He just plays his own game when he gets the rock.  Okongwu is at least trying but he's not a great ball handler/finisher and usually can only pass out from inside.  We don't have the right personnel for the system and we're losing because of it.  I'd rather make trades to get pieces that fit what Quin is trying to do than Quin craft a system to maximize this team to be a perennial 7th/8th seed

[AHF]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

And what adjustments are there?  There are no proven vets that are still capable to put in the camp to steady things.  

When you are neutral to positive in quarters 1, 2 and 4 and highly negative in quarter 3 there is something going on that requires a coach’s adjustment.  To me it is the pattern that suggests a coaching problem there because the same players are getting different results in other quarters.  I don’t have the answer but that is how I’m thinking about it more than the types of adjustments that Jay mentioned.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

But the difference between JC/CC ECF and 2023 is too big.   Why do folks want to ignore what Gallo/Lou did for us that year.  We've never replaced them and without them we were a first round exit at best.  

There is a HUGE difference for JC and CC in those years.  JC was bad last year and hurt for much of the year.  CC was by some measures the most impactful player that ECF season and not in the same ball park last year (or this year).

Lou is not that big of a deal to me but Gallo is.  He was huge for us.

Give me the ECF team easily.  Also, Bogi was All-Star level that season for much of the year.  That will almost surely be the apex of his career.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

What are you talking about lol Quin's philosophy isn't "jack up threes every possession". 

If you didn't watch the Utah offense, I understand you probably don't have a great feel for what he's trying to do, but his offense is tons of ball movement and attacking into space to create open dunks/layups first and foremost, and open threes if the defense collapses.  We just don't have the personnel to execute it well because we have such limited offensive players. 

You see JJ playing well within the offense -- good at attacking space and a good passer (still a lot of refining to do) and Trae is obviously elite, but everyone else..... Saddiq is one-dimensional on his drives and rarely finds the open man, Clint cannot pass or hold onto the ball to save his life, Bogi's bias is to jack up ill-advised threes half the time, and Murray frankly doesn't seem bought in at all.  He just plays his own game when he gets the rock.  Okongwu is at least trying but he's not a great ball handler/finisher and usually can only pass out from inside.  We don't have the right personnel for the system and we're losing because of it.  I'd rather make trades to get pieces that fit what Quin is trying to do than Quin craft a system to maximize this team to be a perennial 7th/8th seed

Why didn't Quin win in the playoffs?

[JeffS17]

Just now, Diesel said:

Why didn't Quin win in the playoffs?

Probably because the west was a blood bath?  He was playing against the peak Warriors/Rockets, and then later lost to Denver and Dallas I think(?)  Do you think there's one good coach every year or something?  The one that wins the championship?  Aren't you a huge Nate McMillan fan?  Surely you understand context, or maybe I should speak your language

Why couldn't Nate get out of the first round?

[RedDawg#8]

We have always been an offensive engine with Trae.

We have always struggled on defense.

Yet somehow we look worse at both aspects under Quinn.

Im more disappointed in our defensive output. We have outright fallen off a cliff even after starting the season off pretty solid on that end.

It is very obvious to me that whatever the issue is with our personnel, Quin has dug in and said no, he will not change his approach to help the talent on this roster just to win games now.

My issue is he is very clearly sacrificing wins and loses for some bigger vision that nobody but he, LF and Trae can see, apparently.

I don’t think he is a bad coach. He is definitely coming across as a stubborn one though.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Didn't we replace Lou with Delon.  I think that's a fair replacement.   We forget that by the end, Lou was hampered very badly.

No it isn't.  What good did Delon really do us?  I know he's the real sacred cow around here but when we needed an additional playmaker against Miami he didn't really cut it.   He's a decent bench player but that doesn't compare to a three time sixth man of the year candidate.  Let's be real about this.

Yeah and 'by the end' he did break down.  During the ECF run he was very good for us.  Doesn't matter what happened later.   JC was broke down last year too.  But ECF he was very good.  

We have to look at what the talent was like then not later.  We were a deep talented team during that run.  Last year and this year we aren't. 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

but his offense is tons of ball movement and attacking into space to create open dunks/layups first and foremost, and open threes if the defense collapses. 

This is his 2016-2017 team.  Won 51 games.   You say Ball movement to the dunk first and foremost.   Notice the type of assists numbers his bigs are getting (circled).   Then notice the 3Pattempts...

This in no way corresponds to this great passing for the dunk system that you describe.  It corresponds to the Keep shooting the three that everybody else describes. 

In 2018-2019.. we see a slight improvement in passing from Gobert.  Slight. 

 

Now for the part you dread... Let's look at us.

 

We're doing the exact same thing with even more 3 pt shooting. 

You say what about his last effort in Utah.. surely he was passing at every position by then..

I draw your attention to the 3PAs vs. the Assists from the Bigs.  It looks a lot like what we do now.

This is his coaching. 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

What I saw last night.   

 

There is no player, well maybe DJ and Bogi to an extent beyond Trae that can get their own shot.   We do not try to play defense; I watch shot after shot from the wing that wasn't defended.   I watched layups by Orlando that our guys were still at the free throw line watching them go by.  We didn't box out most of the time.   Bey should be on the bench.  We are missing talent, length, and basketball IQ on this team.  We are extremely physically weak and get pushed around.  JJ is a finesse 3 that can dunk and get out and run.  Capella is way too slow.  I can't believe Garrison Mathews is playing over AJ, I know we've discussed his issues in this thread, but Mathew's talent is not there, I guess he hustles.  I think Bruno needs more run, why is he not playing, at least he goes to the rim and rebounds.  

Whew............fire away.

100% agree on all points.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

There is a HUGE difference for JC and CC in those years.  JC was bad last year and hurt for much of the year.  CC was by some measures the most impactful player that ECF season and not in the same ball park last year (or this year).

Lou is not that big of a deal to me but Gallo is.  He was huge for us.

Give me the ECF team easily.  Also, Bogi was All-Star level that season for much of the year.  That will almost surely be the apex of his career.

Clint was elite metrics wise. 

[Diesel]

13 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Probably because the west was a blood bath?  He was playing against the peak Warriors/Rockets, and then later lost to Denver and Dallas I think(?)  Do you think there's one good coach every year or something?  The one that wins the championship?  Aren't you a huge Nate McMillan fan?  Surely you understand context, or maybe I should speak your language

Why couldn't Nate get out of the first round?

He couldn't take a 52 win team.

Past the clipps?

He couldn't get but one game against Houston when he had a 50 win team.

A 51 win team getting Swept in the 2nd round.

 

You say the West was a blood bath... What do you think the East will be?

It's funny you mentioned Nate.  At least Nate knows what it feels like to make it out of the 2nd round.  Don't speak Nate because like him or not, he has taken the Atlanta Franchise farther than it's ever been.  Farther than Fratello.  Farther than Lenny.  Farther than Coach Bud.   Farther than Hubie...

And we're still blowing 30 point leads.

 

 

 

[AHF]

13 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Clint was elite metrics wise. 

2020-21

Clint Capela:  8.2 Win Shares, 2.2 VORP, 11.0 WAR, 6.0 RAPTOR

John Collins:  6.7 Win Shares, 2.0 VORP, 6.8 WAR, 2.7 RAPTOR

2022-23

Clint Capela:  7.2 Win Shares, 1.8 VORP, 5.4 WAR, 2.9 RAPTOR

John Collins:  4.2 Win Shares, 0.4 VORP, -0.1 WAR, -2.9 RAPTOR

 

Cumulative:

2020-21 14.9 Win Shares, 4.2 VORP, 17.8 WAR, 8.7 RAPTOR

2022-23 11.4 Win Shares, 2.2 VORP, 5.3 WAR, 0.0 RAPTOR

Difference:

-3.5 Win Shares, -2.0 VORP, -12.5 WAR, -8.7 RAPTOR

 

Huge difference in our frontcourt production.

[Peoriabird]

Bruno needs more minutes even if it pushes JJ to play more 3