2024 Hawks Offseason Thread: Lottery Bound

[NBASupes]

A Trae trade at minimum is our 1st 2025 and 2027 back, 4 and 8. At minimum 

This weak draft, 4 and 8 is more like 14 and 18 next year. 

Our picks back is a requirement. Not optional 

Edited May 13 by NBASupes

[Afro]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Posting as a poster:

Lost my draft on this but the short version:

1. Retool:  rebuilding doesn't make sense.  For all the reasons I said in my previous thread on this exact issue, we don't own our picks for the next 3 years so rebuilding would be a terrible idea.  Rebuilds are a mix of hits and busts and should only be pursued when you have the draft capital to sustain several years of hits and busts until you hit enough to find your core.  (Think of Philly with Embiid as the big hit; Okafor, Noel, Fultz, Smith, etc. as the busts; and Simmons and MCW as the mixed results.)  Where we have a great pick this season and aren't likely to be in the lottery for the next 3 years is the opposite position from one where it is a good idea to rebuild.  We have at a minimum an All-Star and a rising stud forward to build around along with the #1 pick.  Retooling is the way to go.  
2. If you are going to rebuild, get your picks back first.  The idea of trading Trae for the #4 and #8 picks in a year without consensus star talent would be crazy to me.  I've seen the idea thrown out about getting Clingan and Sheppard with those picks.  First, neither is a slam dunk star but also neither is likely to be available at those picks (Clingan likely a top 3 pick and Sheppard a top 7 one).  That would be a huge gamble on a draft class that might end up looking more like 2013 (no All-Star anywhere in the lottery) or 2000 (1 All-Star appearance in the lottery; 1 in the rest of the first round; and 1 in the second round for a draft class with collectively fewer All-Star appearances than DeMarcus Cousins).
3. Get a core piece with the #1 pick.  There will be someone in this draft that is a core piece.  Don't worry excessively about winning on day 1 with that player.  Trading Trae or DJM should return valuable "win now" pieces who fit better than the two of them do together.  Other changes likely need to happen as well but come back next year with a promising young draft pick to go with a revamped roster that should be good enough to make the play-in or playoffs without them even contributing (and then look for them to contribute on top of that).  This obviously is not a great draft class.  There are past classes where the #4 or #5, etc. picks would be the consensus #1 pick this year.  (Think of 2003 with Bosh at 4 and Wade at 5 or 1998 with Antwan Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk and Paul Pierce taken in the 4-10 range and how they would look compared to this class.)  So be it.  The #1 pick is still better than the #10-11 pick which is likely where we were going to end up.  Make the most of it.

Adding to your first part, rebuilding NOW certainly doesn't make any sense. Unless, of course, SA is giving you back all/most of your own picks.

The Hawks don't really lose anything by seeing if the Trae/JJ/Sarr/others stuff works. I can't see a world in which Trae young's value TANKS in 2 years. So unless you're shipping Trae just to ship Trae, what exactly is the point? 

[hawkman]

This place has gone absolutely insane since the Hawks won the Lottery. And not in a good way. What the heck happened??? The Hawks have a chance to right the ship after the rebuild was sabotaged by upper management. Blowing it up now would be disastrous. The projected #1 pick in this Draft plays a position the Hawks need to upgrade and has tools that can help this team right now. A few other peripheral moves, that don't involve Trae, and this team is back in business. I can't help but feel like this team succeeding with Trae is what some posters are really afraid of. The Hawks are right there despite all of the mismanagement of assets. Landry isn't going to blow this team up knowing he will get scapegoated if/when things don't pan out.

[kg01]

4 minutes ago, Afro said:

It just seems like peak Atlanta sports syndrome. 

Run the star out of town for the very clearly lesser talent(not a knock on DJM) just because. 

Nobody eats their own like Atlanta sports fans and media.

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

A Trae trade at minimum is not happenin', Cap'n. 

Fixed 

[NBASupes]

Just now, Afro said:

Adding to your first part, rebuilding NOW certainly doesn't make any sense. Unless, of course, SA is giving you back all/most of your own picks.

The Hawks don't really lose anything by seeing if the Trae/JJ/Sarr/others stuff works. I can't see a world in which Trae young's value TANKS in 2 years. So unless you're shipping Trae just to ship Trae, what exactly is the point? 

He's a FA in two years. 

[Afro]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Nobody eats their own like Atlanta sports fans and media.

Fixed 

Unfortunately I saw the newest Bradley AJC article thread before that so I was already triggered. 

[REHawksFan]

2 minutes ago, NekiEcko said:

I understand and feel the same, but those are indeed the questions being asked.

Even with the first pick, will that elevate the Hawks to a top 6 position, avoiding play-in games? Moreover, post-draft, the team won't control any of their picks for three years, and one wouldn't want a repeat of Brooklyn's scenario, where they gave up the third pick for a player no longer on the team. Additionally, it's risky to rely on the Kings making the Playoffs in the Western Conference, considering the 11th seed was .500 and received the 3rd overall pick, and with Memphis returning to full strength.

Surpassing the second apron is typically for teams expected to reach the second round or conference finals, not for those exiting in the play-in or first round. Furthermore, I lack confidence in Ressler's commitment to this strategy.

I'm not advocating for trading Trae, but if he desires a move, it's crucial the team gains something in return. It's important to remember the team gained nothing when Horford or Millsap departed.

But why are you ignoring the other potential avenues of improvement? We can trade existing players to build around Trae and JJ.  We can sign the MLE and use the TPE.  All of your posts are questioning whether the draft picks (this years and in the coming years) can put us over the top.  That's not the right way to frame this scenario. 

The Hawks are in a great position right now.  They have 2 pgs and a highly talented PF that looks like he's ready to break out.  They also have the number 1 pick.  But the pick isn't and never was going to be a player that puts them over the top. What will put them over the top is upgrading the C position and the wing position. 

That means trading DJM or Trae along with Clint, OO, Hunter, AJ, etc... if necessary to build the roster around the remaining PG and JJ.  I think it's 100% clear that Trae is the better option than DJM so to me, you trade DJM plus others to upgrade either the wing or the C position.  Since the draft is heavy on the C position, it makes the most sense to draft a C and then trade for a wing.  

They already had the Ingram trade on the table.  I'd say you still do that trade and then draft Sarr and make whatever other deals you need to make to fill out the roster around Trae / Ingram / JJ / OO with Sarr as the backup until he's ready.  

 

[shakes]

24 minutes ago, AHF said:

MODERATOR POST:

There has been a bunch of derailment with personal comments about other posters on this thread.  This should sound like a broken record but stop talking about other posters.  Don't call their posts unintelligent, don't do a pyschoanalysis of why they are posting the way they are posting, don't impute motives to them, etc.  Just address the merits of their post if you think it is a bad take.  Name calling like saying people are low IQ or don't know the game or don't know what they are talking about, etc. is not what this board is for. If someone does it, a friendly reminder to treat others with respect is probably going to be fine but it is a short road to getting dragged into problem behavior yourself so flagging for the mods should be step #1.  (And kudos to the multiple people who flagged posts over the last 24 hours.)

The same goes for anything along the lines of "I know poster X is wrong because look where they've been wrong in the past." If you want to talk about a past item, dig up the old thread and revisit it there (and do that on the merits not as an indictment of another person).  If the topic is something happening now like what the Hawks should do with the #1 overall pick then stick to that.  The fact that AHF was right about AD or wrong about Obi Toppin has nothing to do with whether his view on Alex Sarr has merit or not.  Stick to the here and now and avoid opining on other posters and we will spend more time talking about the Hawks and less time dealing with useless drama.

It should also go without saying that profane outbursts at other posters are not OK.  If someone has inappropriately addressed you in a post, flag it for the moderators.  Even responding in kind will get you in trouble just like in a basketball game (and there it is often the retaliating player who ends up with the foul).  So avoid engaging in kind with inappropriate posts and just step away if you feel the frustration getting to be too much such that you might lash out at someone.  Frustration during online discussion is going to happen.  Deal with it the right way or step away before you cross lines. 

Thanks.

 

TL:DR

[Afro]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He's a FA in two years. 

Yeah, that's why I said 2 years. Sometime within that time frame lol. 

[Afro]

4 minutes ago, hawkman said:

I can't help but feel like this team succeeding with Trae is what some posters are really afraid of. 

Ding ding ding

[NBASupes]

Just now, Afro said:

Yeah, that's why I said 2 years. Sometime within that time frame lol. 

This is max trade value period and this is usually the first year the player has leverage in regards for a trade. 

[AHF]

I don't have a definitive view on who we should draft yet (and my final view will be a comparatively ill-informed one I'm acknowledging now because I'm not a scout and am not going to go watch all these guys full games for the last few years). 

But I will say that the defensive upside of a team with pieces like Bufkin, Hunter, JJ, Sarr, and OO is really exciting.  Imagining those guys switching among one another would be a real revelation compared to what we've seen from the frontcourt especially in recent years.  Would be really great to have an actual advantage in length and athleticism on the floor.

[shakes]

Now this is gonna be a fun month and a half!    

[KB21]

16 minutes ago, Afro said:

The "Murray over Trae" sentiment on the basis of "well look at the results....." is so weird to me. 

Trae got this team to an ECF. 

They haven't "made" the playoffs(playin) the entire time Murray has been here. 

But Trae gets the blame, and Murray is seen by some as the savior. 

Make that make sense lol. 

It's completely nonsensical.  Murray is a good player, but he isn't half the player Trae is.  Trae has two defenders within reach of him when he crosses the half court line.  Murray does not possess that kind of offensive gravity.  Trae is much better and making those around him better because of that gravity.  Murray is a good player, but if he is your top player, he will put up numbers and you will win 30 games.  

[NekiEcko]

I am with you on that @NBASupes

We all have to remember that there is no guarantee that he wants to stay here (That is the reason why they added the player option in his contact), if there is another location or team that is closer to championship than the Hawks, and they only need a starting point guard to be complete.  Do you think he will stay here and stay on a middling team or go to the team that is going to give him what he wants the most....NBA Championship (I have three in mind).

[Afro]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

This is max trade value period and this is usually the first year the player has leverage in regards for a trade. 

None of the Trae trades I've seen look to be maximizing his trade value, so I still put that as a meh. 

Outside of SA(which I'm still pretty meh on) I haven't seen anything that you couldn't reasonably duplicate in a year. 

[NBASupes]

@Eddielives, sorry for calling you out of your name. That was out of place. No place for that on here. I enjoy your posts. Keep up the great posting 

[Afro]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't have a definitive view on who we should draft yet (and my final view will be a comparatively ill-informed one I'm acknowledging now because I'm not a scout and am not going to go watch all these guys full games for the last few years). 

But I will say that the defensive upside of a team with pieces like Bufkin, Hunter, JJ, Sarr, and OO is really exciting.  Imagining those guys switching among one another would be a real revelation compared to what we've seen from the frontcourt especially in recent years.  Would be really great to have an actual advantage in length and athleticism on the floor.

This exactly. This is where I feel you owe it to Trae and the fanbase to at least see what happens when you stick a real defensively capable roster around him again. 

Woo buddy if they made the ECF, blew up the team piece by piece, forced us to watch a mess, and then immediately removed the star that got you to that ECF the second you could finally build a capable roster? Yikes. 

[hawkman]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I don't have a definitive view on who we should draft yet (and my final view will be a comparatively ill-informed one I'm acknowledging now because I'm not a scout and am not going to go watch all these guys full games for the last few years). 

But I will say that the defensive upside of a team with pieces like Bufkin, Hunter, JJ, Sarr, and OO is really exciting.  Imagining those guys switching among one another would be a real revelation compared to what we've seen from the frontcourt especially in recent years.  Would be really great to have an actual advantage in length and athleticism on the floor.

Adding Sarr or maybe even Clingan to this team would be huge. I prefer Sarr though due to his ability to block shots AND defend on the perimeter at a high level. I don't think people realize how close this team is to competing. Defense, and to a lesser degree the offensive lulls when Trae went to the bench, is what held this team back last season. 

[NBASupes]

I hope we can keep some of these guys. A fledged rebuild is not going to work. We need to still develop guys and use Hawks University. I hope we do more of a retool.