Looking ahead to the summer.

[mrhonline]

With the trade deadline past, I wanted to take another look at the Smith/Childress suitors this summer. I also added in projected (based on standings) first round draft pick costs, and minus a lottery miracle or two, the list of FA buyers is fairly set.

Based on a projected cap of $58.2M, 24 teams have no realistic shot a MLE+ cap space next year. Three other teams only have MLE+ cap space if ice skates go on sale in Hades:

Miami - if Marion opts out AND they renounce him

New Jersey - if they renounce BOTH Kristic AND Diop

Seattle - if they renounce Swift

That leaves just three teams with realistic wiggle room next year:

LA Clippers - They would have to lose/renounce both Cassell and Maggette to have ~$8M in cap space. I think that could easily happen with both players, since Sam is all but bound for Denver or Boston, and Maggette should get an MLE offer from a contender. Corey has an option for $7M next year, and if he takes it, they have no cap space. If he opts out, the Clippers have to renounce him or they have no cap space. Either way, the Clippers won't likely have said cap space until later in the offseason. I can see them renouncing Maggette if they get a young stud in the draft, but I can also see them using him in a S&T to get a future pick. They're not a threat to Atlanta as of now.

Philadelphia - With cap holds for Louis Williams and Andre Iguodala, the Sixers should be looking at around $11.8M in cap space. Josh Smith should most definitely be on the radar, but not necessarily as their first choice (Brand?).

Memphis - First of all, I don't expect them to use all of their cap space b/c of a cheap ownership situation. (Sound familiar?). Factoring in their two draft picks and Navarro's cheap cap hold, they are looking at around $12.3M in cap space.

Long story short, a five-year, $70M offer is about the max you have to worry about with Josh Smith:

Year 1: $12M

Year 2: $13M

Year 3: $14M

Year 4: $15M

Year 5 :$16M

(Of course, Philly could offer a large, up-front bonus to scare the AS owners out of matching).

And a five-year, $32.5M MLE deal for Childress:

Year 1: $5.5M (projected)

Year 2: $6.0M

Year 3: $6.5M

Year 4: $7.0M

Year 5: $7.5M

To keep both players, the Hawks need some luck:

a.) both Memphis and Philly looking elsewhere for a PF

-or-

b.) Claxton retiring).

[Spiral]

I think it all depends on the ASG. If they're willing to flirt with the luxury tax, we can sign both of them. They are our own free agents, nothing says we couldn't sign them both to max contracts if we wanted to. I truly believe it's all in the ASG's court. I think it's pretty safe to say that Speedy is not going to retire. I think the next time he'll have any value to us at all is when we trade him in two years as an expiring contract.

I will say this. It think it's pretty it's pretty safe to assume that Smoove will get a max or near max offer from someone, but IMO Chrildress is a bit of an enigma. I agree that his value is around the MLE, but what if a team say like the 76ers or Clippers is desperately looking to make a splash in Free Agency and struck out on their primary targets? They are desperate and offer Chillz a deal starting at 8. Do we match knowing that we are paying above market value or do we let him walk?

[scottt]

If chllz getz an offer starting at 8, we let him go. i would hate to see it happen, but a deal starting at 8 with raises ends up at roughly 5 yrs 52 million. Too much. This deal becomes a cap killer.

[Traceman]

I love Chillz but he is not a $50M player.

[frosgrim]

I would be very surprised to see Childress with the Hawks next year. He can bring back something (expirings and draft picks) or another player in an SnT. His salary makes it difficult to re-sign Marvin the following summer.

[DJ_Money]

Signing Childress would likely preclude us from adding the other pieces that we need.

Assuming we re-sign Smoove, our depth chart looks like this...

Bibby/Law

JJ

Marvin

Smoove/Zaza

Horford/Solo

Smoove's contract will put up right up against the salary cap with only 8 healthy players available. (Not going to count Speedy.)

We look set at PG, but we'll still need another big, and amazingly, we'll be short on athletic swingmen. We can probably get Mario and Richardson back for cheap, but they're not 6th men. More like 10th-11th men.

Our ideal move would be to SNT Childress and get 2 or 3 pieces back in return. Maybe buy a couple of 2nd round picks off other teams.

[Atlantaholic]

If we can't keep Chill we should go after Kelenna (like the other thread suggested)

He is a very good SG/SF backup who plays good defense.

[Jody79]

I agree. Here's a thought. The Hawks might look at bringing Marvin off the bench next year if we loose Childress. They'll need some shooting off the bench and Marvin appears to be a team player without an ego. Besides, the Hawks will desperately a need solid starting center if they want to be serious about not just making but competing in the playoffs next year. The red carpet treatment for opposing teams to drive the ball at will and to get critical second chance points because the Hawks are undersized up front needs to stop.

[Atlantaholic]

Quote:

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I agree. Here's a thought. The Hawks might look at bringing Marvin off the bench next year if we loose Childress. They'll need some shooting off the bench and Marvin appears to be a team player without an ego. Besides, the Hawks will desperately a need solid starting center if they want to be serious about not just making but competing in the playoffs next year. The red carpet treatment for opposing teams to drive the ball at will and to get critical second chance points because the Hawks are undersized up front needs to stop.

Hmm.. If you are projecting Marvin to be a bench player than the move would be to trade him now (you can get a great starting forward for Marvin right now).

[Iman]

Thanks for the update, this capspace stuff confuses me. Brand and Okafor should both get more interest at PF than Smoove. Deng, Gordon, Jefferson? should be hot comodities too. Another issue with Smoove will be that most teams will probably assume we'll match since he is becoming the face of our franchise. I bet we get him extended starting at 10-11 per yr for 7 yrs.

[Jody79]

That's something the Hawks may consider. Again, I like Marvin but, I think Hawks management feels that he just has to be a star player because of where he was drafted. Because of that, I think they're trying to push him into a player that he's not and that type of mentality is not good for Marvin or for the future of the ball club. I'm not knocking Marvin, I just think Hawks management has an agenda because of where he was drafted and it's holding back him and the team.

[MemphisX]

FYI

Memphis will have ~$15 million in cap space. Damon Stoudamire's cap number for next season is $1.63 million.

Also, if Memphis does not get the #1 pick the #1 target will be Josh Smith with the maximum they can possibly offer him.

Using your salary projections:

Year 1: $14, 550, 000

Year 2: $15, 714, 000

Year 3: $16, 878, 000

Year 4: $18, 042, 000

Year 5: $19, 206, 000

----------------------------------

Total: $ 84, 390, 000

The thinking is that it is the same money as Gasol was getting with a younger, more defensive oriented player who will just be hitting his prime when the contract is at it's end.

[thesheedera]

Quote:

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That's something the Hawks may consider. Again, I like Marvin but, I think Hawks management feels that he just has to be a star player because of where he was drafted. Because of that, I think they're trying to push him into a player that he's not and that type of mentality is not good for Marvin or for the future of the ball club. I'm not knocking Marvin, I just think Hawks management has an agenda because of where he was drafted and it's holding back him and the team.

I disagree. I don't think they're doing anything "to" Marvin other than playing him big minutes. If our offense had more recognizable structure than it might be easy to find ways that we use him which we try o make him more than he can be, but as it is I haven't ever seen it. It looks to me like he's asked to look for space to get his 18 foot jumper, and very occassionally to set up about 10-15 feet out for an isolation.

If anything the staff/management needs to be encouraging him to do MORE. To extend his range, to polish his one on one game, to focus on rebounds as opposed to getting back on defense like a guard.

I think the idea that our management and staff are driven by Marvin's #2 draft position is a myth. Let's face it, while he was an extremely high draft pick that isn't exactly a huge rarity on this team.

Horford was one pick below him in a stronger draft. He's been thrown to the wolves and rightfully so. He's already paying dividends while being asked to play slightly out of position. He plays because we need him to and at the end of the day were better off with him on the floor than off it.

Childress was 4 picks behind Marvin in a different draft and for the most part has been given the same opportunity in minutes played and in all honesty has been asked to do MORE than Marvin has by playing time at the 1 and 2. I personally don't think he should be playing either of those spots unless in an emergency. Childress plays because we need him to and at the end of the day we're better off with him than without him.

Shelden was only three picks behind him in a similar draft and he was shipped off. He didn't play because he didn't earn the favor of Woodson. He didn't play because he didn't do the things we needed him to do, and it's difficult to argue that we were better off with him. I was expecting him to be better, and I was expecting him to get more of an opportunity, but it just didn't work here.

Marvin plays big minutes because we need him to and because we're better off with him than without him.

To think that the only reason why Marvin starts and gets pt is due to our "investment" is inconsistent with the way that Shelden was banished to the end of the bench. Is a #5 really that much less valuable to a team to develop than a #2? Our #2, 3, and 6 picks all have a lot of pressure, responsibility and are given ample opportunity. Our #5 rarely played and got traded. I personally think the reasoning being those two extremes are due to what the staff thinks gives us the best chance to win, rather than soley because of where they were picked.

Marvin has been disappointing lately, but he was showing a lot of improvement early in the season. Posters were excited. Some naysayers were switching sides. His supporters were fired up. He was incredibly consistent and dependable, but rarely spectacular.

He's been much less consistent in 2008. He's had some of his best games of his career during that stretch, some moments of spectcular play, but he's also had some of his most disappointing.

He isn't "there" yet, clearly, but I believe he has plenty of room to grow and I still expect him to get "there". The bottom line thoug is that for him to reach his potential he needs to be pushed by the powers that be to continue to grow and to be more to this team than he is, rather than being told to settle into a comfort zone he can ease into.

[mrhonline]

Why do people still do this with me?

Here's the numbers for Memphis (not that it matters - they're not going to spend it all anyway):

9,128,575 - Mike Miller

7,020,000 - Darko Milicic

6,200,000 - Jason Collins

6,300,000 - Brian Cardinal

3,630,480 - Mike Conley

2,579,400 - Rudy Gay

2,119,102 - Hakim Warrick

1,381,560 - Javaris Crittenton

1,163,520 - Kyle Lowry

645,708 - Juan Carlos Navarro (cap hold)

1,630,719 - Damon Stoudamire (buyout)

3,229,200 - 1st round pick (current as of a couple days ago)

838,500 - Lakers' 1st round pick (current as of a couple days ago)

45,866,764 - Total

Assuming a cap of $58.2M, that $12.3M. That's NOT enough to pry away Josh Smith.

And MemphisX, I know you know this and are just trying to prop up your team, but there's no indication the Grizzlies are going to make a big splash in free agency. To trade Gasol for crap because he's "not a franchise player," and then turn around and offer that kind of money to Josh Smith, who also is "not a franchise player," is beyond illogical. (Especially when a better PF is available in Emeka Okafor).

[exodus]

It is funny that the deal we all expected to happen (Philly trading Miller) didn't while a lot of crazy deals happened that we never would have expected. Shaq to Phoenix? Pau for Kwame? Kidd to Dallas? Bibby to the Hawks for Shelden + expirers?

WTF

I am not the least bit concerned about Memphis coming after Smith. If they wanted him they would have traded for him.

[mrhonline]

Agreed, Ex.

Memphis supposedly lost $15M last year, so I think the plan is to keep the payroll in the low 50's until they can either make more money or...move the team. They're rebuilding through the draft and with medium-level FA signings. I definitely think they'll be interested in Childress.

Philly is much more likely target for Smith, but they really don't have enough $ to get him.

Also, both teams are likely to look for big men in the draft.

[Final_quest]

Thanks for your analysis Mr. H.

So if I understand correctly it is not a fact that Josh Smith will get a max contract.

[DrReality]

It's hard for me to look to the future with what is going on with the AS and Woody.

I also think it will be interesting to see what SMoove's numbers are for the rest of the season and how Bibby will impact them. But he's going to get his money and for good reason.

[Diesel]

Quote:

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Why do people still do this with me?

Here's the numbers for Memphis (not that it matters - they're not going to spend it all anyway):

9,128,575 - Mike Miller

7,020,000 - Darko Milicic

6,200,000 - Jason Collins

6,300,000 - Brian Cardinal

3,630,480 - Mike Conley

2,579,400 - Rudy Gay

2,119,102 - Hakim Warrick

1,381,560 - Javaris Crittenton

1,163,520 - Kyle Lowry

645,708 - Juan Carlos Navarro (cap hold)

1,630,719 - Damon Stoudamire (buyout)

3,229,200 - 1st round pick (current as of a couple days ago)

838,500 - Lakers' 1st round pick (current as of a couple days ago)

45,866,764

- Total

Assuming a cap of $58.2M, that $12.3M.

That's NOT enough to pry away Josh Smith

.

And MemphisX, I know you know this and are just trying to prop up your team, but there's no indication the Grizzlies are going to make a big splash in free agency. To trade Gasol for crap because he's "not a franchise player," and then turn around and offer that kind of money to Josh Smith, who also is "not a franchise player," is beyond illogical. (Especially when a better PF is available in Emeka Okafor).

One quick thing..

Stoudamire's money wasn't guaranteed for next season... So his buyout probably was a one season deal (meaning that his money won't be on the books)..

[Diesel]

Quote:

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I am not the least bit concerned about Memphis coming after Smith. If they wanted him they would have traded for him.

Actually... that's incorrect. If they wanted Smoove what do you think they would have traded for him. Let's remember, Smoove doesn't make 2 million dollars. They would have had to take on expirings and then at that, it's doubtful we would have given up only expirings. My guess is that for Smoove, BK put Speedy or Shelden in the deal.

2ndly, had they made a trade for Smoove. How bad do you think Smoove would have wrecked their plans to tank?? Miller, Gay, and Smoove is a pretty formidable team. Add in Darko, MCJ and you can get some wins! I think a big part of Memphis' plan is to lose as many as possible and take their chances in the lottery.

The way that they have done it, the Griz can put up 12+ million for Smoove. It's basically a max contract. We will have to match. I think they are considering that our ownership is cheap and won't match.