Hawks Johnson won't sign extension

[chico1]

I'm not hating on JJ. The NBA is a business and all he is doing is weighing his options. It's actually smart on his part to wait until next summer to see what kind of options come his way. In the end, I seriously doubt he would leave Atlanta for 1 or 2 million more per year to go to a lesser team on development. But he can sure use an offer from such a team to negotiate a longer, higher contract with the Hawks. It would have definitely been nice for us fans to have the piece of mind of knowing JJ was locked in for 4 future seasons, but this situation may not be so bad after all. I kind of like the idea of Joe having to prove himself this upcoming season... It'll keep him on his toes and the team might just get more out of him.

Edited September 29, 2009 by chico1

[TheNorthCydeRises]

But why would anyone go to Cleveland without Lebron there given other more attractive options?

I can't think of a reason outside of the money.

I agree.

I just think we can't downplay a potential 10 - 20 million dollar difference in the life of a contract. These players also have egos, and have an idea of how much other players at their position are making. If they don't have an idea, their agents make sure they have an idea.

So when a guy like JJ sees a Michael Redd making around 17 million . .

and then he sees a Rashard Lewis making a ridiculous 19 million . .

and then sees an Andrei Kirilenko making an even MORE RIDICLOUS 16 million . .

JJ and his agent are probably sitting back and saying . . . "hey, why are you offering us 15 million, when Redd is making 17 million, and ain't did jack ish in the NBA?"

Yeah, we all know that those players, especially AK47 and Lewis are grossly overpaid. But that's how the league is.

And the Lewis contract speaks volumes about the extreme a team may do, in order to bring in a star player. Seattle ( with Sund, by the way ) was in the same position we are in now. They pretty much let Rashard shop the market for a deal, and he got a great one in Orlando.

I shouldn't even say what happened in Seattle after that. We all know.

So while Cleveland may not be a desireable destination, teams like New York and New Jersey, who can pay 2 star caliber players . . or a Minnesota, who have a nice collection of young players like the Hawks, are more of a threat to me to toss big money at JJ.

Sund has made adequate moves so far, but it's not like this guy has a stellar track record over the years, with some of his past trades and free agent moves. The jury is still out on him, as much as anybody, as far as I'm concerned.

[jerrywest]

So while Cleveland may not be a desireable destination, teams like New York and New Jersey, who can pay 2 star caliber players . . or a Minnesota, who have a nice collection of young players like the Hawks, are more of a threat to me to toss big money at JJ.

Great post North.

NJ scares me. They got all star level quick PG & big C locked up for many years for very cheap price. They also have Lee for peanuts. Couple of good rookies this year and next. Chinese audience and marketing opportunities with Yi. If they sign couple of big free agents, all the veteran minimum players will flock to fill up their roster. I see dynasty in Brooklyn.

On top of that, now they got the Russian billionaire with unlimited money.

[DrReality]

He'd better play like the 70 million dollar man then. Disaqppearing during the playoffs will not cut it.

[sillent]

Jeff Teague/Mike Bibby

Jamal Crawford

Marvin Williams/Maurice Evans

Josh Smith

Al Horford/Zaza Pachulia

No offense to JJ but our starting line up still looks good with Crawford and Teague being a year acclimated to our system. Marvin and Josh should be ready to take the team into their hands with yet another year of improvement and finally reach or be close to reaching their prime age. We have more money to resign Horford(who should also continue to improve) and a sleeper(like JJ once was but for a lower contract).

If JJ resigns great!! If he doesn't great timing. JJ can no longer hold our young vets back or allow them to hide their faults without correcting them. Horford and Smoove know they have the talent to compete with the greats in this league(that's what made the Boston series so interesting). Marvin will have a chance to once again prove his professionalism and step up to what ever role is needed to keep us at a high level. Teague and Crawford as long as the chemistry is good are going to definitely be X factors for this team(YEAH I SAID IT).

Their games compliment our bigs well and like Kenny said during our draft review about Crawford and Teague we got more players that do what this team already does(I know he wasn't meaning it as a compliment but I bet both players will enlighten him). From our bigs Horford, Smoove ,Marvin(may be exception with passing abilities) to Teague and Crawford we have a very fast pace athletic team that has good court vision(dangerous!!). They all are unselfish Crawford may be exception but believe me this team gives him and his game a different dynamic (He can now seriously play puppet master on the offensive end).

So why the panic button!! This is what BK/Sund built this team for(versatility).

As for JJ he is just like every employee that has put his company on his back for a good tenure and feels that the company should do like wise for all his hard work and dedication. Have you ever opened or revived a new or struggling company? For all the stress mentally and physically that's involved you eventually want to be able to look in the mirror and say it was all worth it. A Championship(If everything fell in our favor this coming season) may or may not do it for you depending on how much it took out of you(Although you are recognized as a piece it is still the company that reaps more of the benefits). Everyone has their own goals. Look at how many one and done's players their are like Trevor Ariza, James Posey, Lamar Odom was close to being that. Although they do/did not have the same roles as JJ they are still human and want to feel appreciated. Obviously y'all can tell I'm going through a similar situation at my job(Star of department Yada yada yada yada) so yeah, I feel JJ and you got to do what you feel is best.

Edited September 30, 2009 by sillent

[Plainview1981]

Not severing the relationship but to me this is as good a offer as he is going to get over a four year period. Maybe someone offers 75 over 5 but this is a huge risk on his part.

15 mill a year is a lot of money for a 3rd tier all-star player who has a history with two teams of dissapearing during the playoffs and for long stretches during the regular season. If JJ plays to form again this year, his gamble will be ours or someone elses gain. Not to mention risking a injury that hurts his season and ours. I think he is getting some really bad advice.

Only teams I can see paying him a similar amount is a team that feels like he is the missing peice and they already have a superstar in place. Not many of those type teams in the market next season.

No offense to you, but these are the things I've been saying for years and eveybody shouts or doesn't agree until JJ says or does something they don't like.

[Buzzard]

No offense to you, but these are the things I've been saying for years and eveybody shouts or doesn't agree until JJ says or does something they don't like.

No offense taken Hots...the way I try to be with players that are signed and on our roster is positive and hopeful as it concerns their play and upside. I look at it as they are already signed and the best thing I can do is support them. But when it comes to new contracts I will speak out in favor of or against. I did it with Chilz, Marvin, Smoove and JJ is no different just because he is our best player.

I do understand your points concerning JJ not being worth x amount of dollars but once he is a Hawk and signed; I try and get over it and support him and our team. In fact if you look far enough back, I did have concerns over JJ getting 70 mill on his 1st contract....primarily on the fact he only had one really good season and up until that season he shot for a very poor shooting percentage.

JJ is not worth a max contract and if we do sign him for that I will be totally shocked; but a week later I will be supporting him as a hawk in as positive a manner as possible....

In other words hotlanta...once a player is signed, I can either bash on him for five years or try and support him for five years. I can't see me wasting that much energy over that long a period being negative. If I was to even try that I would quit being a fan all together; it would be just to damn tiring for me....lol

Edited September 30, 2009 by Buzzard

[MemphisX]

Jeff Teague/Mike Bibby

Jamal Crawford

Marvin Williams/Maurice Evans

Josh Smith

Al Horford/Zaza Pachulia

This is not a good team.

[gsuteke]

This is not a good team.

Are you an expert on "bad teams?"

[TheNorthCydeRises]

LOL @ gsuteke. Yeah, he's definitely an expert on bad teams. Especially bad teams that don't play defense.

Having said that, unfortunately MemphisX is right.

That team would have Bibby and Crawford starting. They instantly become the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA. Not only that, but Crawford would lead the team in shot attempts, seeing that he's the guy who can get a shot ( good or bad ) anytime he wants.

Any team with a good offensive PG or SG would absolutely kill us. And because both Bibby and Crawford are streaky, they's shoot us out of games. At least when JJ is streaky, he's good enough defensively to get stops on the other end.

The kids ( Smoove, Marvin, Horford ) would be fine. But one of them would really have to establish himself as a possible #1 guy, in order to keep this team afloat. Smoove is the most likely candidate to do this.

The last time he was in that situation, was in the 2006 season when JJ got "hurt" ( more like held out, so that the team could tank and possibly get a better position in the lottery ). He actually played well. Then again, Salim looked like a mini Ben Gordon during that stretch.

I think we immeadiately won 4 straight after JJ went out, then proceded to lose about 70% of the rest of the games.

To be honest, I don't think this team:

Bibby - Crawford - Marvin - Smoove - Horford

is all that much better than this team:

Terry - Glover - Big Dog Robinson - Shareef - Ratliff

The 2nd team never won more than 35 games, mainly because of horrible defense. I'll say the first team wins 30 - 35 games, because Crawford can't be counted on as a possible lead guy.

[Buzzard]

But why would anyone go to Cleveland without Lebron there given other more attractive options?

I can't think of a reason outside of the money.

JJ may enjoy a challenge and/or the money as I think most fans in the NBA were saying this about him when he 1st signed with us....

[sillent]

This is not a good team.

Although I know you will be misquoting yourself somewhere later along the lines. That is obviously not a complete team either and pieces can be filled in according to need.

[sillent]

LOL @ gsuteke. Yeah, he's definitely an expert on bad teams. Especially bad teams that don't play defense.

Having said that, unfortunately MemphisX is right.

That team would have Bibby and Crawford starting. They instantly become the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA. Not only that, but Crawford would lead the team in shot attempts, seeing that he's the guy who can get a shot ( good or bad ) anytime he wants.

Any team with a good offensive PG or SG would absolutely kill us. And because both Bibby and Crawford are streaky, they's shoot us out of games. At least when JJ is streaky, he's good enough defensively to get stops on the other end.

The kids ( Smoove, Marvin, Horford ) would be fine. But one of them would really have to establish himself as a possible #1 guy, in order to keep this team afloat. Smoove is the most likely candidate to do this.

The last time he was in that situation, was in the 2006 season when JJ got "hurt" ( more like held out, so that the team could tank and possibly get a better position in the lottery ). He actually played well. Then again, Salim looked like a mini Ben Gordon during that stretch.

I think we immeadiately won 4 straight after JJ went out, then proceded to lose about 70% of the rest of the games.

To be honest, I don't think this team:

Bibby - Crawford - Marvin - Smoove - Horford

is all that much better than this team:

Terry - Glover - Big Dog Robinson - Shareef - Ratliff

The 2nd team never won more than 35 games, mainly because of horrible defense. I'll say the first team wins 30 - 35 games, because Crawford can't be counted on as a possible lead guy.

Who said Bibby would start next year? I have Teague upfront for a reason. Not to mention Joe could still come back but if he doesn't I believe all of our young dynamic players and company will show what they are made of. When you have a team full of talent players defer their roles for the greater of the team(Not saying that's what we are Yet but for example look at an allstar team. When everybody plays their role to perfection it is an easy win (When people try to do more than their role requires on a talented team it frustrates and throws off chemistry). If there is less talent on the team it is only logical for the players who do have more talent to step up there game.

In our case we would have three 25 year old's by that time who can come into their own in their own right. A talented player/play maker in Crawford and Teague with a year under his belt in our system and the desire to take it to the next level.

[sillent]

Teague - Crawford - Marvin - Smoove - Horford

is all that much better than this team:

Terry - Jackson - Big Dog Robinson - Shareef - Ratliff

The 2nd team never won more than 35 games, mainly because of horrible defense. I'll say the first team wins 30 - 35 games, because Crawford can't be counted on as a possible lead guy.

Terry could defend as well as Jackson. And Ratliff was the premier defender replacing Dikembe at the time. Chemistry is what makes a world of difference.

Mookie-Smitty-Christian-Henderson-Dikembe do not look better on paper than the team above and only had two primary defenders. They also competed in the Jordan era so it's not like their competition was lacking.

[NJHAWK]

Honestly if this makes JJ lay it all on the line this year and try to prove he can lead a team into the elite levels of the playoffs then its a very good thing. Let him prove he can do it before we pay him that way.

[thecampster]

Honestly if this makes JJ lay it all on the line this year and try to prove he can lead a team into the elite levels of the playoffs then its a very good thing. Let him prove he can do it before we pay him that way.

Let me add some dollar and cents perspective here. 4 year 60 million vs 5 year 75 million.

Scenario 1. JJ doesn't sign the 4 year deal and gets a career ending injury this year. He just lost 60 million dollars.

Scenario 2. JJ doesn't sign the 4 year deal and underperforms this year (very possible with an improving cast)...he doesn't get a 5 year offer then.

Scenario 3. JJ leaves and gets a 5 year 75 million dollar deal. Chances are the team is not as good as the Hawks and his endorsement options are limited.

Scenario 4. JJ signs the 4 year deal and after it's done he signs a veteran deal for 9 million a season. He loses a possible 6 million total in the deal.

Reality. The probable loss in signing the 4 year deal is at most 15 million and probably more like 5 million. When you couple the lower endorsements with the risks it makes very little sense to sit out.

There is a rule in negotiating. Don't walk away from guaranteed money on the table over greed. Take the guaranteed money every time. The extra 15 million will not change JJ's life permanently. Losing the 60 million would.

[AHF]

Let me add some dollar and cents perspective here. 4 year 60 million vs 5 year 75 million.

Scenario 1. JJ doesn't sign the 4 year deal and gets a career ending injury this year. He just lost 60 million dollars.

Agreed.

Scenario 2. JJ doesn't sign the 4 year deal and underperforms this year (very possible with an improving cast)...he doesn't get a 5 year offer then.

I wouldn't assume he doesn't get a 5 year offer if he has a subpar year. It is likely he will still be a top 5 SG based on his total track record. If he falls off a cliff that is a different scenario, but that is very low probability, IMO.

Scenario 3. JJ leaves and gets a 5 year 75 million dollar deal. Chances are the team is not as good as the Hawks and his endorsement options are limited.

I don't see his endorsement options as being very good with the Hawks, personally. Even if the team is worse, endorsement opportunities would increase if he joined the Knicks.

Scenario 4. JJ signs the 4 year deal and after it's done he signs a veteran deal for 9 million a season. He loses a possible 6 million total in the deal.

Agreed.

Reality. The probable loss in signing the 4 year deal is at most 15 million and probably more like 5 million. When you couple the lower endorsements with the risks it makes very little sense to sit out.

I see the options where he loses income as being pretty low %, disagree on the assumption with endorsement opportunities declining, and think there is a high probability he will end up with a 5th year if he waits out this season.

If we are discussing low % probabilities, we also have to factor in a scenario where the Atlanta team falls apart around him and he is stuck with them if he resigns (i.e., Teague busts, Smith blows out a knee, Horford plateus, Marvin regresses, etc.).

There is a rule in negotiating. Don't walk away from guaranteed money on the table over greed. Take the guaranteed money every time. The extra 15 million will not change JJ's life permanently. Losing the 60 million would.

I think JJ's risk here is very reasonable considering what he has already banked. I don't think it is an irrational gameplan at all.