Horford vs Josh Smith

[Diesel]

I think the premise here is all wrong.

You say if we were to trade one who would it be?

What are we getting?

I think that has a bigger factor.

While a lot of us love Horf, I think too many of us fail to concede that his offense is definitely weak. He has to be set up. He doesn't do well against taller players. He is slow (relatively). He doesn't have a goto move.

Josh suffers from the same problems, but Josh contributes. He was our 2nd lead player in assists this pass year. His game is always improving. I would really like to see him under another coach before pulling a trade. Same with Horf.

[jerrywest]

Josh for Yi won't improve the team. Josh for Lopez might. Josh for an elite scoring PF might. My point is that if the team improves, I don't think ticket sales will sag just because Josh isn't here.

Agree 100%.

A before the season and after the season poll would be nice. Last summer Smoove would have crushed Al. Now, it is a close contest just because Al took a greater leap this year.

[lethalweapon3]

Our whole argument is over whether he's selling any extra tickets at all...way to assume your conclusion :snowballfight:

Agreed. He is selling seats. Not enough to fill up Philips. But enough to keep the Hawks from reconsidering the ThillerDome.

What I'm saying is that I think that if we traded Josh for a player that was less "exciting" (whatever the hell that means) but that helped our team get better, attendance wouldn't go down. We can't prove or disprove that as long as Josh is here. Even if he is traded, the number of other factors that change would mean that there still would be no resolution to the argument. But I don't get the sense that the presence of Josh Smith is having a huge increase in ticket sales. Historically, teams with high-flyers or local products who aren't superstars don't have attendance any better than comparable-win/loss teams with "boring" players and imports. The Kings sold more tickets when Bibby came and J-Will left. The Blazers sell more tickets than all but 2 other NBA teams despite having the blandest roster in the league.

Can you think of any examples where the presence of a non-superstar "exciting" player led to a long-term bounce in ticket sales, home-grown or otherwise? I can't. On the other hand, I can think of plenty of "boring" teams that sold lots of tickets (though didn't draw big national TV crowds) because they were contending for titles.

(I sincerely apologize for hijacking this thread...)

Again, local-ties ("Anthony Carter", "Kenny Thomas", "Shareef", "Lou Williams") is not by itself a draw. The likelihood of seeing show-stopping plays are not themselves a draw. Josh Smith brings both to the table, and that is a draw. Enough so to keep the lighthearted-joke of a fanbase from being a literal crisis.

White Choc of West Virginia was not a player with local ties to Sacramento, and potentially missing a Mike Bibby '3' or pass was not a reason to go to Kings games by itself. ((If you're from either Sacramento or Portland, please skip to the next paragraph)) The blandest rosters in the league in a city with NO other professional franchises (apologies to those Portland Timbers) will sell out unless they've been remarkably awful for a long while. If you're in Sacramento and enjoy watching live sports, where is your entertainment dollar going?

Back east, this town has watched this franchise peddle Danny Manning, J.R. (oh, excuse me, Isaiah) Rider, and Glenn Big Dog Robinson, all on the premise (even "guarantee") that the moves for these guys will "help this team get better!" Followed shortly by pleas to "come on out, Atlanta, and show support for our unproven product!" The paying public was wary of that sales pitch well before Josh even got here. In another town with a different history, trading a local product like Josh Smith would be a different story altogether.

Despite their past, the fanbase has grown from the 12,000-13,000s to the 16,000s. And winning has helped a bunch. But this team has neither the personalities nor an attractive signature playing style to make 20,000 people believe it's worth shelling out money to spend on them. And it has no history to lean on that says, "This tale will end somewhere beyond the second week in May." So "golly, we have a better chance to win!" falls on deaf ears around these parts.

People weren't coming in droves before, and without the "superstar" here putting up banners (there's like, what, maybe 5 of them in the league now? Maybe?) they aren't going to come in greater numbers than what you see now. But it's as high as it has been in a long time, if ever. And it's not because they won 50 games. Atlanta has been there and done that. Trade Josh, fine. But this time around, you had better have a certified superstar coming through that door. (separate thread on this coming soon!)

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

I think the premise here is all wrong.

You say if we were to trade one who would it be?

What are we getting?

I think that has a bigger factor.

While a lot of us love Horf, I think too many of us fail to concede that his offense is definitely weak. He has to be set up. He doesn't do well against taller players. He is slow (relatively). He doesn't have a goto move.

Josh suffers from the same problems, but Josh contributes. He was our 2nd lead player in assists this pass year. His game is always improving. I would really like to see him under another coach before pulling a trade. Same with Horf.

Thanks, Diesel for helping me get back on topic!

Although I generally disagree with the rationales you cited above for Al, one other factor is, which could we get more for in return, if we were building around one of them plus a third person (Joe) to win a title? I'd argue you could get at least incrementally greater trading value with Horford than you could with Smith.

~lw3

[Jody23]

One of the things I think Horford would give the Hawks as a power forward is a legitimate post prescence on offense. As good as Josh is, that's something he doesn't have the size to give the Hawks. When it comes to the playoffs, this is something that is critical to have. I think Horford would draw double teams in the post as a four and his passing would create high percentage shots for others. As an example, look at the games where Horford played against other power forwards playing center (New York, Toronto, etc...). He was more than good. He was dominate and he drew double teams because his size and strength were factors in his favor.

[capstone21]

One of the things I think Horford would give the Hawks as a power forward is a legitimate post prescence on offense. As good as Josh is, that's something he doesn't have the size to give the Hawks. When it comes to the playoffs, this is something that is critical to have. I think Horford would draw double teams in the post as a four and his passing would create high percentage shots for others. As an example, look at the games where Horford played against other power forwards playing center (New York, Toronto, etc...). He was more than good. He was dominate and he drew double teams because his size and strength were factors in his favor.

I would keep Al no question

Al is a leader, he has a high bbiq (Josh does not), he is a better post defender and probably a better one on one defender, he has more size, he is more versatile and can play C or PF, he is a 10 times better ball handler, he is a better jump shot, a better post game, he is a better rebounder, he is a good passer, he plays within himself and he has a great attitude.

Josh is a more exciting player, he is a better dunker and a better weak side defender and probably a better passer (but those passes are always out of control).

I would love to see what Al could do with a move to PF and to play along side a real center.

[Diesel]

I would keep Al no question

Al is a leader, he has a high bbiq (Josh does not), he is a better post defender and probably a better one on one defender, he has more size, he is more versatile and can play C or PF, he is a 10 times better ball handler, he is a better jump shot, a better post game, he is a better rebounder, he is a good passer, he plays within himself and he has a great attitude.

Josh is a more exciting player, he is a better dunker and a better weak side defender and probably a better passer (but those passes are always out of control).

I would love to see what Al could do with a move to PF and to play along side a real center.

Horf has been a post presence? When he moves to PF, he will face a lot of guys who will take him out of the post.

Bosh, Aldridge, KG, Lewis, Murphy etc have games that extend out away from the post. When he's playing those guys, they will make him move his feet.

[Jody23]

Horf has been a post presence? When he moves to PF, he will face a lot of guys who will take him out of the post.

Bosh, Aldridge, KG, Lewis, Murphy etc have games that extend out away from the post. When he's playing those guys, they will make him move his feet.

Very true D, but those guys will also have to guard him on the block and outside of KG, those other guys were not strong enough to keep Horf from getting to the front of the rim.

[capstone21]

Horf has been a post presence? When he moves to PF, he will face a lot of guys who will take him out of the post.

Bosh, Aldridge, KG, Lewis, Murphy etc have games that extend out away from the post. When he's playing those guys, they will make him move his feet.

This is true but Horford makes an effort to stay in front of his man....Josh lets his man blow by him to try to block him from behind

[Joker]

This is true but Horford makes an effort to stay in front of his man....Josh lets his man blow by him to try to block him from behind

Josh doesn't let them blow pass him, they just do it because he can't stop them. Josh needs to be in the post playing defense. That is where he is elite.

[capstone21]

Josh doesn't let them blow pass him, they just do it because he can't stop them. Josh needs to be in the post playing defense. That is where he is elite.

Josh has never been an elite defender. He is an excellent weakside defender but his post d is decent and his man on man is average.

[Theeyo]

i'd like to see them go one on one, it might get interesting

[Joker]

Josh has never been an elite defender. He is an excellent weakside defender but his post d is decent and his man on man is average.

His man post defense is very good. His ability to get get steals, blocks, and defensive boards are among the best in the league much less at his position. I have to disagree with that. The only person putting up better defensive numbers is Howard.

[niremetal]

His man post defense is very good. His ability to get get steals, blocks, and defensive boards are among the best in the league much less at his position. I have to disagree with that. The only person putting up better defensive numbers is Howard.

Blocks and steals are a terrible measure of what makes a good defender, especially on the ball. Josh's on-ball post defense is average. When his man has the ball in the post, usually either bites on a pump fake or, if he's not in a position to get a block, fails to get his hands up to contest at all. He rarely tries to front his man and deny the entry pass even when he's in a position to do so, and doesn't do a good job keeping his man from backing him closer to the basket. He gets some blocks, but the vast majority of his blocks come on help plays. On the perimeter, his on ball D is just bad.

He's the league's best help defender, but he doesn't seem to have the combination of focus and patience that it takes to defend well on the ball.

Edited May 27, 2010 by niremetal

[capstone21]

Blocks and steals are a terrible measure of what makes a good defender, especially on the ball. Josh's on-ball post defense is average. When his man has the ball in the post, usually either bites on a pump fake or, if he's not in a position to get a block, fails to get his hands up to contest at all when he's defending the post. He rarely tries to front his man and deny the entry pass even when he's in a position to do so, and doesn't do a good job keeping his man from backing him closer to the basket. He gets some blocks, but the vast majority of his blocks come on help plays. On the perimeter, his on ball D is just bad.

He's the league's best help defender, but he doesn't seem to have the combination of focus and patience that it takes to defend well on the ball.

Excatly, numbers especially steals does not mean you are a good defender .... actually steals mean that you are always gambling. He does not shut his man down...I never see him do it. He doesn't stay in front of his man and he doesn't move his feet well. You never see big defensive numbers from players like Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier or Raja Bell but they are excellent defenders.

Josh is exciting and his blocks are exciting but he is an average defender overall.

[coachx]

His man post defense is very good.

:laughing5: :lol6: :laughing5: :lol6:

[NineOhTheRino]

His man post defense is very good. His ability to get get steals, blocks, and defensive boards are among the best in the league much less at his position. I have to disagree with that. The only person putting up better defensive numbers is Howard.

Sorry but Josh is not a good defender. He's a good shot blocker but that does not make him a good defender. Being a good defender is all about want-to and Josh is not the type that gives multiple effort on a single play.

Edited May 27, 2010 by NineOhTheRino

[Joker]

Blocks and steals are a terrible measure of what makes a good defender, especially on the ball. Josh's on-ball post defense is average. When his man has the ball in the post, usually either bites on a pump fake or, if he's not in a position to get a block, fails to get his hands up to contest at all. He rarely tries to front his man and deny the entry pass even when he's in a position to do so, and doesn't do a good job keeping his man from backing him closer to the basket. He gets some blocks, but the vast majority of his blocks come on help plays. On the perimeter, his on ball D is just bad.

He's the league's best help defender, but he doesn't seem to have the combination of focus and patience that it takes to defend well on the ball.

Maybe I reached on the very good post defender comment but he is solid to say the least. He has improved a lot in terms of bites and falling for pump fakes and as for contesting shot, I have to agree. As for fronting his man, he does that at a decent rate and as for keeping his man out of the post, I agree there too. I agree about the blocks but that how a lot of great defenders gets their blocks and that helps Bibby, Joe, and Marvin a ton as well as Al. I feel that weak side defense is more important than on ball defense just like scoring at the rim is more important than great shooting. You are also devaluing steals which is extremely important and creates fast break opportunities. You guys are devaluing Smith too much and I don't agree. Horford defensive stats at center tell you how important Smith's defense is to this team. Everything your saying is 100% correct in 2008. But in 2010, I do not agree with those assessments.

[Joker]

Excatly, numbers especially steals does not mean you are a good defender .... actually steals mean that you are always gambling. He does not shut his man down...I never see him do it. He doesn't stay in front of his man and he doesn't move his feet well. You never see big defensive numbers from players like Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier or Raja Bell but they are excellent defenders.

Josh is exciting and his blocks are exciting but he is an average defender overall.

You just compared him to wing defenders who are just on ball defenders. This is pointless discussion if your going to make this comparison. I could understand Dwight Howard, KG, or Bosh but not these wing defenders. No one is saying he could defend 1,2, and 3's. What I am saying is he is an elite defender and the best outside of Howard. You have gave me some weaknesses and some aren't even his weak points anymore. Getting a bunch of co-signers doesn't prove much when stats, peers, and coaches thinks that he is one of the best in the game for a 4 or 5.

Peers

Dwight Howard top 5 defenders

Defense/Rebounding Stats

Player Name Yr Tm Pos GP Min OReb DReb TReb ORR DRR TRR STL BLK CHG DEF PF

Josh Smith 2010 ATL PF 81 35.5 2.8 6.0 8.7 9.0 19.7 14.3 1.60 2.12 0.32 4.05 3.0

Analytics

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2558&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

coaches

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/05/05/all.defense/index.html

Edited May 27, 2010 by nbasuperstar40

[Joker]

Hoopopinion on Josh Smith