Horford vs Josh Smith

[Marvin24Williams]

imo, i'm going to have to go with horford because he is way more efficient then josh smith on a nightly basis.

discuss, who would you trade or keep and why

[NineOhTheRino]

JCS: Josh can't shoot

[lethalweapon3]

If forced to choose, "either-or" style, Horford stays. Solid big, better shooter, pesky defender that can play Cs when needed, better finisher in pick-and-roll plays.

BUT from a fan marketing standpoint, whatever GM has the fun of trading "Atlanta's Own" had better bring in a marketable certified beast in return. No Danny Mannings this time around, or else we're looking at the Kansas City Hawks by 2020. Another thread on this subject later.

~lw3

[Jody23]

Objectively speaking, I'd keep Horford, hands down. He has all the tools to be a legitimate perenial all star power forward as oppossed to just being a "good" center. I love Josh Smith and everything he brings to the team, but he'd be the one I'd trade. I think we have to get away from the bias toward him because he's from Atlanta or was drafted by Atlanta. That point of view only ensures bad decision making.

[coachx]

I would prefer to keep them both and find a defensive upgrade to ZaZa who can protect the rim. (Perhaps by drafting Alabi).

I don't like making it a Smoove vs. Horford thing. I would trade either if it makes the team better.

Edited May 26, 2010 by coachx

[YP2K]

Whichever one would give us the most in return is who I would trade (of course we'd have to also get a true center either in the deal or free agency) . . .

[niremetal]

If forced to choose, "either-or" style, Horford stays. Solid big, better shooter, pesky defender that can play Cs when needed, better finisher in pick-and-roll plays.

BUT from a fan marketing standpoint, whatever GM has the fun of trading "Atlanta's Own" had better bring in a marketable certified beast in return. No Danny Mannings this time around, or else we're looking at the Kansas City Hawks by 2020. Another thread on this subject later.

~lw3

Fans aren't showing up to see Josh Smith play. Sorry, but the Hawks remain 18th in attendance. The idea that Josh is some big drawing card doesn't jive. Not that anyone else on our team is a drawing card either, obviously, but people aren't showing up to see Josh play (or for any other reason).

[lethalweapon3]

Fans aren't showing up to see Josh Smith play. Sorry, but the Hawks remain 18th in attendance. The idea that Josh is some big drawing card doesn't jive. Not that anyone else on our team is a drawing card either, obviously, but people aren't showing up to see Josh play (or for any other reason).

Agreed he's neither THE drawing card, nor A STRONG drawing card. But when you tell people to come to "THE HIGHLIGHT FACTORY" (with money, please). Joe's, Al's, and Jamal's jumpers ain't gonna cut it. People are showing up to see Josh and the Hawks play (together), and that's the difference between ranking 18th and 28th. Trade Josh in a deal for local product Dwight Howard and the 18th-ranked fans will certainly stick around. Trade Josh for Carmelo Anthony and the numbers might even bump (after they win something) Trade Josh for 2-time All-Star David West and they might fall behind Georgia Tech.

~lw3

[niremetal]

Agreed he's neither THE drawing card, nor A STRONG drawing card. But when you tell people to come to "THE HIGHLIGHT FACTORY" (with money, please). Joe's, Al's, and Jamal's jumpers ain't gonna cut it. People are showing up to see Josh and the Hawks play (together), and that's the difference between ranking 18th and 28th. Trade Josh in a deal for local product Dwight Howard and the 18th-ranked fans will certainly stick around. Trade Josh for Carmelo Anthony and the numbers might even bump (after they win something) Trade Josh for 2-time All-Star David West and they might fall behind Georgia Tech.

~lw3

Come on, now. If we replaced Josh with, say, Brook Lopez (I know it'll never happen - I'm just using an example of a boring-but-solid big) and the Hawks finished with the same regular season record and with better postseason prospects, you think the absence of Josh would cause us to drop to 28th in attendance? I've spoken about Atlantans not being the best NBA fans, but I give them more credit than THAT. Josh is not getting the Hawks 3000 fans per game that would disappear if he was replaced by a less "exciting" player who improved the team.

Sorry, but there is zero evidence that Josh is the kind of drawing card you say. Superstars are drawing cards; those are the guys that move the needle by thousands of fans per game. High-flying good players are not.

Edited May 26, 2010 by niremetal

[lethalweapon3]

Come on, now. If we replaced Josh with, say, Brook Lopez (I know it'll never happen - I'm just using an example of a boring-but-solid big) and the Hawks finished with the same regular season record and with better postseason prospects, you think the absence of Josh would cause us to drop to 28th in attendance? I've spoken about Atlantans not being the best NBA fans, but I give them more credit than THAT. Josh is not getting the Hawks 3000 fans per game that would disappear if he was replaced by a less "exciting" player who improved the team.

Sorry, but there is zero evidence that Josh is the kind of drawing card you say. Superstars are drawing cards; those are the guys that move the needle by thousands of fans per game. High-flying good players are not.

Trade Josh for B-Lo and we might as well be the Missouri Hawks, this is a "Show Me" state when it comes to the fans. You will literally have to have the Larry O'Brien Trophy getting shined up in the locker room before more people will say, "You know what? I might look into some tickets next year."

DIkembe Mutombo, Steve Smith, Mookie Blaylock in their primes could not get this franchise in the Top 10 attendance-wise. And when they were gone it was back to the basement. Dominique Wilkins, Spud Webb, Doc Rivers at their peak wasn't enough. Why would stoic Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Brook Lopez do any better at drawing crowds even if they won 60 games? Potential fans are not sitting at home waiting for the Hawks to make an extra round in the playoffs.

With Josh it'll be great if the Hawks win, because it's highlights+winning that brings people out. Without Josh you had BETTER win it all (maybe twice in a row), because nobody's giving you the time of day in the meantime. Josh makes the volume of lame excuses (weather, traffic, it's scary downtown, it's Wednesday, it's Sacramento, disposable income, hair appointments...) that much smaller. Yes, 3000 fans smaller, in this town. A local product who's a former slam dunk champ, perennial SportsCenter reel, and the central icon to the Hawks growth from the depths of the lottery. You don't trade him for hopes that a star from a 12-win team will propel you to instant greatness and expect people to show up trusting you. Again, trade him if you want to, at your own risk. Just no more "Danny Mannings."

~lw3

[GST]

I would keep Horford. Josh has tons of potential, but I think Josh has gotten too comfortable with his situation as a Hawk. I don't think he will change until the ride gets rough. For Josh's sake alone, Woodson needed to be fired after 3 years. This would have given Josh a totally different head coach for the last year of his rookie contract. Too late now.

Edited May 26, 2010 by GST

[AHawks89]

imo, i'm going to have to go with horford because he is way more efficient then josh smith on a nightly basis.

discuss, who would you trade or keep and why

I'd trade Al Horford and keep Josh Smith. When Josh Smith is not on the floor, our defense collapse. Plus, Josh Smith is more efficient than anyone on the Hawks team. He fills up the stats too. Blocks, Assist, Rebounds, and with a new coach he could be a better scorer now. I really think people on here are dumb for saying they would rather trade Smith than Horford. I really do. I think people will realize real soon how dumb they are when they said they rather trade Smith. SMH....

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_active.html

Edited May 26, 2010 by AHawks89

[Wretch]

Trade Josh for B-Lo and we might as well be the Missouri Hawks, this is a "Show Me" state when it comes to the fans. You will literally have to have the Larry O'Brien Trophy getting shined up in the locker room before more people will say, "You know what? I might look into some tickets next year."

DIkembe Mutombo, Steve Smith, Mookie Blaylock in their primes could not get this franchise in the Top 10 attendance-wise. And when they were gone it was back to the basement. Dominique Wilkins, Spud Webb, Doc Rivers at their peak wasn't enough. Why would stoic Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Brook Lopez do any better at drawing crowds even if they won 60 games? Potential fans are not sitting at home waiting for the Hawks to make an extra round in the playoffs.

With Josh it'll be great if the Hawks win, because it's highlights+winning that brings people out. Without Josh you had BETTER win it all (maybe twice in a row), because nobody's giving you the time of day in the meantime. Josh makes the volume of lame excuses (weather, traffic, it's scary downtown, it's Wednesday, it's Sacramento, disposable income, hair appointments...) that much smaller. Yes, 3000 fans smaller, in this town. A local product who's a former slam dunk champ, perennial SportsCenter reel, and the central icon to the Hawks growth from the depths of the lottery. You don't trade him for hopes that a star from a 12-win team will propel you to instant greatness and expect people to show up trusting you. Again, trade him if you want to, at your own risk. Just no more "Danny Mannings."

~lw3

Lotta truth in there...and just goes to show that this franchise needs a face and an identity. We haven't had both in SO long. This team has neither. Smitty's teams had an identity...but they were boring (I shudder thinking about those days ARGUING with guys in the military about my beloved Hawks. They were the ones that pointed it out to me.). Nique's team had both, but it was so long ago...and we dumped both when we were at our highest point with him.

[niremetal]

Trade Josh for B-Lo and we might as well be the Missouri Hawks, this is a "Show Me" state when it comes to the fans. You will literally have to have the Larry O'Brien Trophy getting shined up in the locker room before more people will say, "You know what? I might look into some tickets next year."

DIkembe Mutombo, Steve Smith, Mookie Blaylock in their primes could not get this franchise in the Top 10 attendance-wise. And when they were gone it was back to the basement. Dominique Wilkins, Spud Webb, Doc Rivers at their peak wasn't enough. Why would stoic Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Brook Lopez do any better at drawing crowds even if they won 60 games? Potential fans are not sitting at home waiting for the Hawks to make an extra round in the playoffs.

With Josh it'll be great if the Hawks win, because it's highlights+winning that brings people out. Without Josh you had BETTER win it all (maybe twice in a row), because nobody's giving you the time of day in the meantime. Josh makes the volume of lame excuses (weather, traffic, it's scary downtown, it's Wednesday, it's Sacramento, disposable income, hair appointments...) that much smaller. Yes, 3000 fans smaller, in this town. A local product who's a former slam dunk champ, perennial SportsCenter reel, and the central icon to the Hawks growth from the depths of the lottery. You don't trade him for hopes that a star from a 12-win team will propel you to instant greatness and expect people to show up trusting you. Again, trade him if you want to, at your own risk. Just no more "Danny Mannings."

~lw3

Lotta truth in there...and just goes to show that this franchise needs a face and an identity. We haven't had both in SO long. This team has neither. Smitty's teams had an identity...but they were boring (I shudder thinking about those days ARGUING with guys in the military about my beloved Hawks. They were the ones that pointed it out to me.). Nique's team had both, but it was so long ago...and we dumped both when we were at our highest point with him.

Wait...you don't think the fact that attendance didn't crack the top one-third of the league even with the presence of the Human Highlight Reel indicates that having an exciting player does NOT necessarily create attendance bumps? The novelty of Nique wore off in a hurry, and the team was down to 19th in attendance 4 years before the Nique trade, and were dead last in Nique's last full year with the team (when he played 71 games and averaged 30ppg). Arguably the game's most exciting player, and people weren't showing up.

People tune into Sportscenter to watch highlight reel dunks. I don't think they show up to games for it, unless the player is a superstar. And Josh is no superstar. Sure, maybe his dunks generated a few more ticket sales for a year or two, but Josh has been here 6 years and he's not jumping any higher. I don't think he's having that much of an impact on attendance anymore.

Edited May 26, 2010 by niremetal

[lethalweapon3]

Wait...you don't think the fact that attendance didn't crack the top one-third of the league even with the presence of the Human Highlight Reel indicates that having an exciting player does NOT necessarily create attendance bumps? The novelty of Nique wore off in a hurry, and the team was down to 19th in attendance 4 years before the Nique trade, and were dead last in Nique's last full year with the team (when he played 71 games and averaging 30ppg). Arguably the game's most exciting player, and people weren't showing up.

People tune into Sportscenter to watch highlight reel dunks. I don't think they show up to games for it, unless the player is a superstar. And Josh is no superstar. Sure, maybe it holds their interest for a year or two, but Josh has been here 6 years and he's not jumping any higher. I don't think he's having that much of an impact on attendance anymore.

highlights+championship contention = booties in the seats year-round. Can't have one without the other.

Josh Smith + Not getting trashed in the Eastern Conference finals = improved attendance

Barely winning games in the second round - Josh Smith = continued ridicule around the league for attendance (like there isn't any now)

And don't discount the local factor as well. Atlantans will not come to see J.R. Smith, or a former Slam Dunk Champ if said champ is, say, Jason Richardson, and the team is no better than it is now. They will not come to see, say, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, if he's a swell local product, but does nothing to make people say wow in the course of 3 hours, and the team is no better than it is now. Put both together and you have something to market beside 3 hours of Iso-Joe.

Yes, interest will wane as Josh's hops surely will. And hopefully, a championship-level product can be built in a way where he doesn't have to be the face. But for now, it's his presence plus winning that is making the difference. He's no superstar. But as Gearon might say, he's the "closest thing we have" to one, and that's selling enough extra tickets for now.

~lw3

[jerrywest]

I'd trade Al Horford and keep Josh Smith. When Josh Smith is not on the floor, our defense collapse.

Look at Hoopinion's blog on Zaza. He shows numbers that proves Zaza+Horford is good defensive combo. Zaza+Josh isn't.

[jerrywest]

If the next coach can discipline Josh and reduce the number of brain freezes, the kid could make a hyper-leap.

[niremetal]

But as Gearon might say, he's the "closest thing we have" to one, and that's selling enough extra tickets for now.

Our whole argument is over whether he's selling any extra tickets at all...way to assume your conclusion :snowballfight:

What I'm saying is that I think that if we traded Josh for a player that was less "exciting" (whatever the hell that means) but that helped our team get better, attendance wouldn't go down. We can't prove or disprove that as long as Josh is here. Even if he is traded, the number of other factors that change would mean that there still would be no resolution to the argument. But I don't get the sense that the presence of Josh Smith is having a huge increase in ticket sales. Historically, teams with high-flyers or local products who aren't superstars don't have attendance any better than comparable-win/loss teams with "boring" players and imports. The Kings sold more tickets when Bibby came and J-Will left. The Blazers sell more tickets than all but 2 other NBA teams despite having the blandest roster in the league.

Can you think of any examples where the presence of a non-superstar "exciting" player led to a long-term bounce in ticket sales, home-grown or otherwise? I can't. On the other hand, I can think of plenty of "boring" teams that sold lots of tickets (though didn't draw big national TV crowds) because they were contending for titles.

Edited May 26, 2010 by niremetal

[lethalweapon3]

Nique's team had both, but it was so long ago...and we dumped both when we were at our highest point with him.

The would-be Hawk fan will say,

"You traded Georgia's Dominique Wilkins when we were at our best point, in first place, with Jordan out of the league and our best shot at a title... and you brought in DANNY MANNING? Then you took College Park's Josh Smith, with this team at its highest point in over a decade, traded him... and you're trotting out who? BROOK LOPEZ? YI JIANLIAN? And you want to sell what? Tickets? GTFO, and just wake us when you've won something serious."

Doesn't help when you're named the "Atlanta Spirit Group." Trade Josh Smith for something less than a winning star player, then try to appeal to people's "Atlanta Spirit." Good luck with that.

~lw3

[niremetal]

The would-be Hawk fan will say,

"You traded Georgia's Dominique Wilkins when we were at our best point, in first place, with Jordan out of the league and our best shot at a title... and you brought in DANNY MANNING? Then you took College Park's Josh Smith, with this team at its highest point in over a decade, traded him... and you're trotting out who? BROOK LOPEZ? YI JIANLIAN? And you want to sell what? Tickets? GTFO, and just wake us when you've won something serious."

Doesn't help when you're named the "Atlanta Spirit Group." Trade Josh Smith for something less than a winning star player, then try to appeal to people's "Atlanta Spirit." Good luck with that.

~lw3

Josh for Yi won't improve the team. Josh for Lopez might. Josh for an elite scoring PF might. My point is that if the team improves, I don't think ticket sales will sag just because Josh isn't here.

Edited May 26, 2010 by niremetal