Those Braves

[APE]

WOW, If you look at the standings it suggests the Braves are one of the top teams in the NL even with that putrid "offense." That speaks volumes of how good the pitching is and how good they'll be when they get that offense going through November. :stirthepot:

[CBAreject]

WOW, If you look at the standings it suggests the Braves are one of the top teams in the NL even with that putrid "offense." That speaks volumes of how good the pitching is and how good they'll be when they get that offense going through November. :stirthepot:

I think when you're still saying "when they get that offense going" 78 games into the season it's wishful thinking. There's a good chance the offense is what it will be. I think the only way the offense improves at all is for Larry Parrish to be fired post haste. He was a horrifyingly bad hire, and the only reason he still has his job is that people don't like to admit they were wrong. Hiring a "roving minor league hitting instructor" for a major league job was incomprehensible in the first place. Then, you had a team that led baseball in OBP last year dropping to 27th this year after they adopted Parrish's "aggressive" approach at the plate. You have the biggest acquisition putting up the worst numbers for a regular in the MLB and seemingly unable to make even the slightest adjustment to his approach at the plate.

I waited 20 years for the Braves to finally realize how important it is to be patient at the plate as an organization. What happened last year at the plate was too good to be true, and I couldn't conceive of the possibility this thick-headed organization would manage to scuttle that progress as quickly as they have in favor of "aggression". Aggression? Does that mean swinging at the first pitch no matter where it is? Then I'm not a fan.

Edited June 26, 2011 by CBAreject

[APE]

Definitely agree about the aggresive "aggression" by the Braves. But, there have been numerous injuries to key players also. I was shocked when I heard they've only used the opening day lineup 11 times. I think once Prado gets back and he gets going so will the team since he's the spark plug of the Braves' offense.

[CBAreject]

Definitely agree about the aggresive "aggression" by the Braves. But, there have been numerous injuries to key players also. I was shocked when I heard they've only used the opening day lineup 11 times. I think once Prado gets back and he gets going so will the team since he's the spark plug of the Braves' offense.

Injuries schminjuries. There isn't a single player in our lineup who hasn't posted a lower OBP this year relative to last year other than Nate McLouth, and it would've been hard for him to do worse. We also had lots of injuries last year (remember Chipper, Glaus, Prado, Heyward??? I mean posting the best OBP in baseball last year was phenomenal, and it was really a tribute to TP. Parrish came in and undid everything that TP had done in 5+ years. Remember that when TP came on, Andruw Jones finished 3rd in the MVP voting the next year with 50 dingers and hit over 40 the next year. I never thought TP was a great hitting coach, but Parrish has shown me just how bad a HC can be

[Dnice]

The teams behind Atlanta is making them look good. They are in 2nd but have the furthest margins of all the other 2nd place teams.

[jhay610]

I think when you're still saying "when they get that offense going" 78 games into the season it's wishful thinking. There's a good chance the offense is what it will be. I think the only way the offense improves at all is for Larry Parrish to be fired post haste. He was a horrifyingly bad hire, and the only reason he still has his job is that people don't like to admit they were wrong. Hiring a "roving minor league hitting instructor" for a major league job was incomprehensible in the first place. Then, you had a team that led baseball in OBP last year dropping to 27th this year after they adopted Parrish's "aggressive" approach at the plate. You have the biggest acquisition putting up the worst numbers for a regular in the MLB and seemingly unable to make even the slightest adjustment to his approach at the plate.

I waited 20 years for the Braves to finally realize how important it is to be patient at the plate as an organization. What happened last year at the plate was too good to be true, and I couldn't conceive of the possibility this thick-headed organization would manage to scuttle that progress as quickly as they have in favor of "aggression". Aggression? Does that mean swinging at the first pitch no matter where it is? Then I'm not a fan.

Alex. Gonzalez.

[KB21]

The teams behind Atlanta is making them look good. They are in 2nd but have the furthest margins of all the other 2nd place teams.

I don't understand this line of thinking. Atlanta is in 2nd, but they also have the 2nd best record in the NL and are 4 games up in the wild card at the moment. As bad as the offense has been, the pitching has been outstanding. What this shows you is just how important pitching is. When you can pitch it, you have a chance.

[CBAreject]

I don't understand this line of thinking. Atlanta is in 2nd, but they also have the 2nd best record in the NL and are 4 games up in the wild card at the moment. As bad as the offense has been, the pitching has been outstanding. What this shows you is just how important pitching is. When you can pitch it, you have a chance.

It doesn't help the offense when we have a manager who seems to think it's a good idea to bat a player with a .288 OBP 1st in the order and a player with a .270 OBP 2nd in the order. For the clueless out there, you want your highest OBP 1st and your best overall hitter 2nd (unless said hitter is a masher, in which case he hits 4th). It was nice to see McLouth with a .350 OBP sitting 8th in the order when the 1/2 guys can't sniff a .300 OBP

And btw, I'm sure this will be thoroughly unpopular, but it is well-recognized in the world of people who understand baseball statistics, that Fredi Gonzalez is the worst in-game decision maker in baseball. It's sickening.

[frosgrim]

It doesn't help the offense when we have a manager who seems to think it's a good idea to bat a player with a .288 OBP 1st in the order and a player with a .270 OBP 2nd in the order. For the clueless out there, you want your highest OBP 1st and your best overall hitter 2nd (unless said hitter is a masher, in which case he hits 4th). It was nice to see McLouth with a .350 OBP sitting 8th in the order when the 1/2 guys can't sniff a .300 OBP

And btw, I'm sure this will be thoroughly unpopular, but it is well-recognized in the world of people who understand baseball statistics, that Fredi Gonzalez is the worst in-game decision maker in baseball. It's sickening.

Oh come on man, Freddi it just playing his "gut" instincts on how to manage a game. The gut got him this far, why change anything?

/sarcasm

There definitely something wrong with the team's collective offensive IQ. They make a lot of boneheaded plays.

[AHawks89]

Braves pitching is out standing. Who would had ever thought that Kimbrel and Venters would be the best closers in the game. Actually, I knew they would be sick, but this sick?! Imagine if we still had Wagner here to give those young guns some rest. I love our pitching rotation and bullpen, the best in the MLB? I'd say so.

The hitting will come around, and when it does, I'd say we have the best shot at winning the World Series. That's the only negative thing I can say about this team. When we get everyone healthy, I think our hitting will click within the first week. I'm glad Jordan is getting some playing time & starting to get a feel what it's like to play in the MLB. I love his defense, and he has a great arm. We will have a good rotation for whomever needs rest. If Chipper needs rest, we can move Prado to 3rd & put Nate in LF. I'm pretty confident in this team this year. This is the team right here folks.

Freddi has not done a bad job at all at coaching, at least in my opinion. I like that we are attempting to steal bases more often than the years before.

Go Braves!

Edited July 6, 2011 by AHawks89

[CBAreject]

Braves pitching is out standing. Who would had ever thought that Kimbrel and Venters would be the best closers in the game. Actually, I knew they would be sick, but this sick?! Imagine if we still had Wagner here to give those young guns some rest. I love our pitching rotation and bullpen, the best in the MLB? I'd say so.

Agreed. Braves/Phillies are 1-2 in some order. The advantage in my opinion goes to the Phils, because they have 4 starting pitchers who can give them 8 or 9 innings on any given night. Our bullpen is better, but the problem is that we need that bullpen. If we face the Phillies head up and can get their SP out after 6 (not likely with the approach Parrish teaches...hack, hack, hack), we have an advantage.

The hitting will come around...When we get everyone healthy, I think our hitting will click within the first week.

I want to believe that, but I just don't as long as Parrish is the hitting coach. When every player in your order has a significant drop in OBP one season to the next, it's more than injuries.

I'm glad Jordan is getting some playing time & starting to get a feel what it's like to play in the MLB.

I also want Jordan to get playing time, but he shouldn't be getting at-bats at the MLB level. He didn't earn them. He was posting atrocious numbers at AAA, and he has continued to post them at the MLB level, which shouldn't surprise anyone. Costanza is hitting .340-ish at AAA and he can play center, but Jordan got the call over him. I guess "used to be a good prospect" trumps current performance.

Freddi has not done a bad job at all at coaching, at least in my opinion.

The only measure by which you can possibly argue Fredi is a good coach is by W-L record, which has a heckuva lot more to do with the fact we have the best pitching staff in baseball. Fredi consistently makes horrible decisions and ignores anything statistical. Batting a .290 OBP #1 and a .270 OBP #2 night after night is inexcusable. You want to put your high OBP guys in those spots to maximize their plate appearances and maximize RBI opportunities for Chipper/McCann/Freeman.

Also Fredi has been completely clueless about using his best relievers in high-leverage situations. He frequently uses Scott Proctor who is by far our worst reliever (and one of the worst in the NL) in high-leverage situations and he frequently burns Venters and Kimbrel in low-leverage situations. Last week, he pitched Venters 6 times in 8 days, and 3 of them were when we had a 4-run lead. He was then unable to use Venters or O'Flaherty when we had a 1-run lead and allowed Proctor to blow the game to Baltimore.

Fredi made the worst decision I have ever seen as a Braves fan when he inexplicably left Teheran in to bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd with none out down by 2 runs on the road. Teheran failed, of course, because he is an awful hitter and an awful bunter, as pitchers tend to be. He then removed Teheran before the bottom of the inning started. So, he had already planned to take Teheran out, but he wanted to get him an extra AB in an extremely important situation before he left the game. Not to mention that when you are down 2 on the road, you cannot waste a chance at a big inning by giving up an out, anyway. Nonetheless, if you have to bunt, you should pinch hit a better bunter for Teheran. Yep, good managing.

Fredi has run Freeman (slow runner) into an out twice in a 3 day period recently, when he sent him with 2 strikes and Uggla hitting (high K batter) against a high K pitcher. Strike-em-out-throw-em-out DP each time.

Fredi also overutilizes the sacrifice bunt in general. Sac bunting is generally a negative expected value play that only makes sense in very select situations (such as when you're forced to let your pitcher bat, but only because pitchers are such bad hitters that a "productive out" is much preferable to an almost sure non-productive out).

I like that we are attempting to steal bases more often than the years before.

Stealing bases becomes a break-even proposition in today's game at about a 70% success rate. We are currently 26-52 (dead on 50%) on the season, which means we are giving up outs and giving away runs by attempting to steal. To put it succinctly, we are attempting too frequently, given our lack of team speed. You can't make up for a lack of team speed by attempting steals more often. You can only do so by acquiring speedier players. Stealing can make more sense in select situations, such as having a couple of singles hitters coming up (who are unlikely to get XBH's and drive in the runner from first), and having 2 outs (such that it's unlikely to advance the runner on an out anyway).

I admire your unabashed homerism, but it's frustrating for statistically-minded fans like me who know Fredi is awful, awful, awful at thinking about baseball. Better yet, Fredi simply doesn't think about baseball.

[DrReality]

Hope they come back from the all star break loaded for bear. Ugla needs to see a shrink.

[AHawks89]

I hate how people use stats to compare teams & players. It's a lot more than stats; especially, when it comes to baseball. I'v played ball for 16 years and got injured my freshman year of college. I know baseball pretty damn good. To bring up stats to criticize players, teams, and coaches is ridiculous in my opinion. The one thing I don't like about Freddi is his choice of using the wrong pitchers at the wrong time, and over using Venters and Kimbrel, but I guess you have to at times. Other than that, I think he has done fine.

We've been hitting lights out lately, I'll take that over some stats. Stats don't tell the game of baseball. I like what I'm seeing so far. :newrussian:

[CBAreject]

I hate how people use stats to compare teams & players

Yes, let's not use an objective standard to make comparisons. Maybe the team who wins each division shouldn't be the one with the highest winning percentage (a statistic), but the one who had the most fun or wore the coolest jerseys.

I'v played ball for 16 years and got injured my freshman year of college. I know baseball pretty damn good.

Having played baseball so long means you know some nuances about playing the game that most fans cannot know. However, none of those is how to measure the value of a player, predict the future performance of a player, or the optimality of a managerial decision. For those things, a pencil-necked, egg-headed sabermetrician will whip you senseless every time. Do you think the Oakland A's would've traded the moneyball managerial team of Billy Bean and Paul Depodesta for someone who knew nothing of stats but had 20 years experience in getting his pants dirty on a diamond?

To bring up stats to criticize players, teams, and coaches is ridiculous in my opinion.

That statement is ridiculous, in my opinion.

The one thing I don't like about Freddi is his choice of using the wrong pitchers at the wrong time, and over using Venters and Kimbrel, but I guess you have to at times.

1) That's a huge error, given that those 2 pitchers are 2 of our greatest assets and absolutely must be kept fresh for the stretch run if we are to have a chance in the playoffs.

2) How do you suggest one evaluates what is or is not the correct time to use a particular pitcher in the first place? Statistics, right? I hope your hypocrisy is becoming apparent to you.

We've been hitting lights out lately, I'll take that over some stats.

How do you know we've been hitting "lights out"? How can you measure such a thing? Stats? Aside from that, unless you're talking about the last 2 games, no we haven't. I believe we've gone 15-3 in our last 18, and we're hitting .240-ish as a team in that stretch. Actually, that's an improvement over what we had done to that point, but it's still below-average. What we're doing is pitching "lights out", and, other than the last 2 games, hitting just enough to win almost every game. Of course, for someone who doesn't believe in stats, you couldn't possibly know how we'd been winning. you can't measure hitting or pitching performances without stats. So, in your mind, the fact that we've been winning means that we've been hitting and pitching equally well. Also, in your mind, the fact that we've been winning means that Fredi is making excellent in-game decisions.

Stats don't tell the game of baseball.

Yes, they do. There is no sport out there that is more accurately described by the sum of the various statistical entities involved. If you'd said stats don't tell the game of football or, to a lesser degree, the game of basketball, I'd agree.

Edited July 7, 2011 by CBAreject

[AHawks89]

Baseball fans DO eat this stuff up. I agree with you that baseball statistics have always been far more advanced and numerous than in any other sport, partially because the sport is just more intrinsically suited for counting things, and partially because the nature of the game is suited to appreciating the counting of things; it's slower paced, played over the course of a very long season, and it's not always easy to visually tell who's a better player than who without the help of knowing their performance as measured in statistics. There are small things that don't show up in the box score or statistics. That being said, you can't determine a team by that stats (IMO), but an individual, yes. I see where you're coming from, but baseball is a lot more than stats. I could argue all day about this, but I rather not with stat freaks.

Anyways, Braves are starting to look like team I envisioned. Do you think we make a trade? If so, what position or player are we going after. Any rumors going around?

Edited July 8, 2011 by AHawks89

[APE]

Let's sweep these bastards and take back our division. :boxing: :drinks: :bicz:

[AHawks89]

It's going to be one hell of a series. Let's just hope we can keep hitting like we have been the past few games. Is anyone going to miss the games due to the games being in the afternoon?

[Eddielives]

Baseball fans DO eat this stuff up. I agree with you that baseball statistics have always been far more advanced and numerous than in any other sport, partially because the sport is just more intrinsically suited for counting things, and partially because the nature of the game is suited to appreciating the counting of things; it's slower paced, played over the course of a very long season, and it's not always easy to visually tell who's a better player than who without the help of knowing their performance as measured in statistics. There are small things that don't show up in the box score or statistics. That being said, you can't determine a team by that stats (IMO), but an individual, yes. I see where you're coming from, but baseball is a lot more than stats. I could argue all day about this, but I rather not with stat freaks.

Anyways, Braves are starting to look like team I envisioned. Do you think we make a trade? If so, what position or player are we going after. Any rumors going around?

Whether or not the Braves make a deal, I think, hinges solely upon whether Dan Uggla can erase his horrid start with a strong second half. He has been playing better for about a couple of weeks now but it's still too early to tell if he's out of the slump. When he gets to .200, I'll believe he may be out of it. But if he is still lingering around .170 in a month, look for the Braves to start fielding offers for some of their wealth of pitching to add a legit big bat. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing Alex Gonzales dangled along with a pitching prospect as potential trade bait.

[Guest]

For the clueless out there, you want your highest OBP 1st and your best overall hitter 2nd (unless said hitter is a masher, in which case he hits 4th).

Was there a paradigm shift in baseball or are you coming at this from a statistical point of view? I've always been under the impression managers believed your best overall hitter batted 3rd. The statistical view seems to have an idea embedded within it that each team will have certain players with strengths and weaknesses (can't your highest obp also be your best overall hitter?). As far as I know, nothing in statistics simply determines the best hitter should hit 2nd. I would actually contend the best should hit 1st in order to gain more at-bats. All this is just a tangent, I agree there seems to be a mysterious way that Fredi goes about setting his line-up and it is certainly not optimal.

[CBAreject]

Was there a paradigm shift in baseball or are you coming at this from a statistical point of view?

To say "are you coming at this from a statistical point of view is to say "wait a second, are you using facts to determine this?"

Please realize how absurd that sounds.

Also understand that I have zero original ideas regarding baseball thought process. I simply access the collective wisdom of baseball statisticians who do baseball analysis as a job. Statistically challenged people like you who put them down and say "aw, stats don't tell ya nuttin" are victim to "The Dunning Kruger Effect" (DKE). The DKE states that people who are unskilled in particular area tend to think they have a relatively good grasp of said area and fail to recognize genuine skill in that area in people other than themselves. In other words, ignorant people fail to recognize their own ignorance by virtue of their ignorance.

Read and learn: Dunning Kruger Effect

Note, I realize that nobody could possibly admit they are victim to the DKE. The DKE would prevent them from having any insight into it.

Now, regarding your question of having the best overall hitter bat 2nd, please read the following site, which challenges the "conventional wisdom" in lineup construction.

the book

No, the best overall hitter should not bat leadoff, in general, because the leadoff hitter comes to the plate most frequently with the bases empty. Batting an Albert Pujols #1 wastes RBI chances, despite his excellent OBP. You're better off putting a high-OBP, low-power guy here if you have one. And no, stolen bases mean next to nothing here.

Your best overall hitter should bat 2nd, not 1st, because this maximizes plate appearances while still getting lots of chances with men on.

The next best hitter should bat 4th, not 3rd, and then in order 5th, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th (though technically you can gain a few runs per year by batting the pitcher 8th rather than 9th).

Now, please tell me how you arrived at your asinine "you need to bat your best hitter 3rd" mantra, which completely ignores any statistical analysis. You're basically saying "This is the way it should be and I don't need any facts to prove it!".