So It All Boils Down to This

[Eddielives]

Well the Braves have managed to perform a physical impossibility and screw themselves. I know I tend to be an emotional fan who gets a little more vocal about the negative than the positive. I guess it's just more important to me to speak up when things need changing than when things are running smoothly. But as a fan, I think one is not a bad fan or out of line to call your team out for underachieving and just flat out sucking. Braves, YOU SUCK!!!!! This is embarrassing and I don't have one bit of faith that they will one, beat the Phillies tonight based on how gutless they've been performing and how they've laid down like dogs. And two, I don't have any faith that they will beat St. Louis in a one game playoff series if they manage to win tonight and the Cards win forcing one. So way to go you bunch of overpaid gutless "professionals." Way to make the fans proud.

[macdaddy]

I agree with your frustration. This is a terrible collapse but at the same time you look at our team and we are horrible offensively. Back when we built a huge wild card lead we were winning games 2 to 1. That just doesn't last forever without a lot of luck and cy young winners on your staff. At some point we are going to have to invest in real slugger or two.

[CBAreject]

There were injuries to key starting pitchers, but those things management couldn't control, and in fact, having so much surplus pitching in the minors more than alleviated that problem. Minor and Delgado actually did well enough that we didn't miss Hanson and Jurrjens that much.

This melt down boils down to 3 different problems that management is directly responsible for:

1) Can't get on base:

The Braves led the NL in OBP last year, and until the injuries to Chipper and Prado, they were leading ALL of MLB. Glaus' ailing legs didn't help that either. Take a minute and think about that. The Braves were the best team in the NL at reaching base last year and for the better part of last year, they were the best in ALL of baseball. Better than AL teams built with 200 million dollar payrolls and the benefit of a DH.

This year, the Braves are 14th in the NL in OBP and 26th in all of baseball. Again, take a minute and think about that. We went from BEST in the NL at reaching base to darn near the WORST. Now, most of the Braves players were the same as last year. Each of the last 2 years, we've been beset by injuries, but if you count games lost to injuries by offensive players, we probably lost fewer key guys for significant stretches this year than we did last year.

How do we explain this remarkably horrific turnaround? The single most plausible factor is the hiring of Larry Parrish to be the hitting coach, not only because that change affects all batters, but also because Larry publicly boasts of his "aggressive" approach. That aggression has turned into not just a lower walk rate but also a higher percentage of first pitches swung at and balls outside the strike zone swung at. Larry Parrish has almost single handedly turned one of the top offenses in the NL (in spite of injuries even!) into one of the very worst.

Wren didn't help this by acquiring perhaps the worst player in baseball at getting on (Alex Gonzalez), and Fredi didn't help this by batting Alex 2nd in the order for a third of the season. Two weeks ago, Alex actually led the NL in outs made (rare for anyone who doesn't bat leadoff), a reflection of how Fredi maximized his opportunities to rack up outs at a furious pace.

2) Overuse of the bullpen:

I've posted ad nauseum about this issue, but Fredi Gonzalez is guffing up the single most important facet of managing baseball in the national league. His overuse of Venters and Kimbrel has rendered them ineffective in the season's final month. As a result, in their current "slide", the Braves have no fewer than 5 blown saves leading to losses by Venters and Kimbrel; this was after 2-3 months went by with neither giving up a single run. This meltdown is the difference from being 13-12 in September to being 8-17 and from being 5 up still in the wildcard to being TIED. This is fully attributable to Fredi's pitching Venters excessively in mop-up duty midseason. He was publicly lambasted for this and as a result he publicly vowed to cut back on Venters' use, but the changes he made, if any were too little, too late. Venters, Kimbrel, and O'Flaherty were 1, 2, and 3 in appearances for much of the season, and as of today, Venters has 5 more appearances than any other reliever in the NL. I bet they would still be 1, 2, 3 if the Braves hadn't been playing from behind so frequently in September.

3) Horrific in-game decision making. I've chronicled just a FEW of the mind-numbingly poor in-game decisions by Fredi. I actually used to think Bobby Cox made at least one bad decision a game, but Fredi served to show me just how good Bobby was at what he did. It's true, Bobby was no in-game managing whiz, but the minor mistakes he made were trivial compared to the regular moronic decisions of Fredi. Fredi batted our two lowest OBP players 1-2 for a third of the season. Fredi sac bunted in the most inexplicably poor situations, frequently leading to inning-ending double plays (most recently with Tommy Hanson, 2 strikes, bases loaded...all of which scream NOT to sac bunt). Fredi frequently played hit and run with slow baserunner/strike-out prone hitter combos, leading to inning-ending double plays. Fredi at least twice left a pitcher in STRICTLY to bunt when we were behind and the pitcher would be pulled for a reliever in the next half inning (this is almost never correct). Clearly not all of Fredi's moronic decisions cost us games, but I bet you at least 2 or 3 did, and that is the difference between having this locked up and resting Hudson for game 1 of the NLDS right now.

Fredi Gonzalez and Larry Parrish have run a 96-win team into the ground by teaching a terrible hitting approach, overusing the best trio of relievers in baseball, and making moronic in-game decisions. Knowledgable Atlanta fans have been cognizant of this all year, but the majority have inexplicably supported Fredi (and to a lesser extent Parrish) in the midst of it all.

Edited September 28, 2011 by CBAreject

[lethalweapon3]

I've elected to start calling him "Woodi"

~lw3

[Wurider05]

even if they do make the playoffs they will get swept in the 1st round. So really what's the point?

[CBAreject]

even if they do make the playoffs they will get swept in the 1st round. So really what's the point?

Well, in baseball, there's always a chance...so much more than in the other major sports. However, if we continued to play like the worst team in baseball, it would seem almost impossible.

Also, I'm thinking if we do make the playoffs, there's no way Fredi gets fired. Parrish will likely be fired either way, but another season or two of Fredi will severely hamper the team's chances to win a championship.

[AHF]

Kimbrel imploded. Ugh.

[CBAreject]

Kimbrel imploded. Ugh.

@Frediot: Maybe I should've pitched Kimbrel/Venters more this season so they'd have experience

[lethalweapon3]

Biggest collapse in major league... whoops, oh never mind! hahahaha

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Soooo... who stays, who goes, who retires?

Somewhere in Little Rock last night, Joe Johnson said, "D-Lowe makes WHAT???"

~lw3

[CBAreject]

Soooo... who stays, who goes, who retires?

Somewhere in Little Rock last night, Joe Johnson said, "D-Lowe makes WHAT???"

~lw3

Let's wait for coachx, hawksfanatic, and Atlhawks to start talking about what a great season it was and giving "props" to Fredi for doing "a pretty good job". Then the debate can begin on whether we fire Fredi or give him a 10-year extension. Also, I'm sure some will inexplicably defend Larry Parrish. I don't understand how that is possible, but it has been done on this same forum.

[lethalweapon3]

The Atlanta Hawks.

The feel-good Atlanta MEN'S pro sports story of the year!

~lw3

[CBAreject]

The Atlanta Hawks.

The feel-good Atlanta MEN'S pro sports story of the year!

~lw3

My god, you're right.

[Eddielives]

Well looking towards next year, here is what I think needs to happen with the lineup. Borne is good. He stays. He was one of the only Braves who showed up last night. Prado, I still believe is a good hitter and think he just had an off year. Chipper? Just retire already. You're old and broke down. Putting up respectable numbers yet constantly being hurt is just not the best for the team. Uggla? Well, you have to hope he can put together a full season of good hitting next year. Sucking for half the year and being great for the other isn't going to cut it despite all the home runs. Freeman is going to be fine. Kinda sad a rookie was probably our most consistent hitter. McCann is fine but even he has to pick it up a little offensively. He was great and then he sucked down the stretch. Heyward is the enigma. Is he still the next Hank Aaron or is he a flop. Something tells me he's got bust written all over him but he deserves next year to redeem himself. Alex Gonzales needs to be traded for anything we can get. He's horrible offensively and contributed mightily to the Braves anemic offense. The pitching on this team is still loaded and can't be held accountable for the collapse. It's the offense, period. There is a psychological issue with these guys that has to once again be examined and figured out. They just look absolutely pathetic yet they're almost all capable of so much better. Parrish? Show him the door. Fredi, I hate to say it but show him the door too. He's too nice. We need a LaRussa type to instill some passion in these players who seem to treat baseball like it's a business rather than a sport. Where's the passion? Where's the guts to show you love the game rather than just play things out and whatever happens, happens? That's a manager problem. So bye bye Fredi.

[CBAreject]

Fredi, I hate to say it but show him the door too. He's too nice. We need a LaRussa type to instill some passion in these players who seem to treat baseball like it's a business rather than a sport. Where's the passion? Where's the guts to show you love the game rather than just play things out and whatever happens, happens? That's a manager problem. So bye bye Fredi.

Why would you "hate to say it"? There hasn't been anything that Fredi has done well. It shows me something that I'd been suspicious about for a long time, though. No matter what the evidence shows, most Atlanta fans have supported Fredi, and then scrambled for evidence that he is doing an adequate job. Atlanta has a completely irrational collective mancrush on Fredi Gonzalez, and I just don't get it. We've had lots of bad coaches/managers come through Atlanta in each sport, but none has been so overwhelmingly terrible as Fredi Gonzalez. Get over it, Atlanta. Wren gave him the job without interviewing any candidates. Atlanta fans seemed to put him on a pedestal without any objective analysis as well.

I completely agree with your analysis, Eddie, except I'm not sure it would be a great thing if Chipper retired. Sure, it would be nice to replace him with Hanley Ramirez, or some young superstar who could play every day at 3B or LF, but it's very difficult to acquire such a player for the same thing we're paying Chipper. When Healthy, Chipper was our best offensive player over the course of the season, and in the 2nd half, he hit like the old Chipper. Wish we could get 150 games out of him, but 120 of Chipper might be better than 160 of whoever we might replace him with. Besides, Chipper wants to finish out his contract, so it probably doesn't mater what we think.