FYI - The Hawks Can't Sign Significant Free Agents

[AHF]

The salary cap for this season is 58M. The tax line is 70M.

The Hawks have the following committed salaries:

Joe Johnson $18M

Josh Smith $12.5M

Al Horford $12M

Kirk Hinrich $8M

Marvin Williams $8M

Zaza Pachulia $4.75M

Jeff Teague $1.6M

Magnum Rolle $.8M

Pape Sy $.8M

When you add up the exact numbers, we are sitting at $66,596,237 with 3 roster spots to fill.

If you assume minimum salaries for those players, you are talking about adding:

$788,872

$788,872

$788,872

or

$2,366,166

That puts us at $68,962,853 so we have about $1M to play with and could add a 13th player to the roster without going over the luxury tax line or pay a bit more than the minimum to someone (such as a contract for $1.5M). This assumes that we disclaim any interest in Jamal Crawford, whose cap hold is much higher than a minimum salary.

HOW MUCH COULD WE SPEND IF WE WERE WILLING TO PAY THE TAX?

Even if we were willing to pay the tax, we couldn't sign anyone significant except:

(a) We could pay Jamal Crawford as much as we want since we have his bird rights and

(b) We could use an exception, which maxes out our FA spending at $5M/season.

WILL THE HAWKS PAY THE TAX?

I think the correct thing to assume is that the Hawks are not willing to pay the tax and so only have room to sign basically minimum salary players unless they use their amnesty card.

HOW MUCH COULD WE SPEND IF WE WERE WILLING TO USE AMNESTY ON MARVIN?

Using the amnesty provision on Marvin would reduce our cap figure by $8,050,000 but the owners would still be stuck paying him most of that money. Using amnesty would put Marvin in the auction system for people who are below the cap to bid on players and someone would get him cheap through that system. If you assume someone lands him with a $3M bid, the owners start off by paying $5M to Marvin. (It is unclear what happens with multiyear contracts at this point so I am ignoring that and focusing on this season).

Cutting $8,050,000 off the cap brings our commitment down to basically $60.8M. This is still over the cap so it doesn't give you one penny to sign a free agent that you don't already have. That means the $5M MLE or signing Jamal Crawford are our only exciting options.

If you resign Crawford for $6M, then you can sign someone for a $3M contract and be right at the luxury tax line. It would cost the owners $14M to get Crawford and their $3M FA under this scenario. If they were willing to do that, they might as well just sign Crawford and pay the tax because it is about the same and you get Marvin instead of a $3M FA and you keep your ability to use amnesty in the future on Marvin, JJ, Horford, etc. in case one of them has a huge breakdown or deterioration.

HOW MUCH COULD WE SPEND IF WE WERE WILLING TO USE AMNESTY ON JOE?

Using the amnesty provision on JJ would reduce our cap figure by $18,038,573 and the owners would still be stuck paying him a lot of that money. Using amnesty would put JJ in the auction system for people who are below the cap to bid on players and someone would get him cheap through that system. If you assume someone lands him with a $10M bid, the owners start off by paying $8M to JJ. (It is unclear what happens with multiyear contracts at this point so I am ignoring that and focusing on this season).

Cutting $18M off the cap brings our commitment down to basically $50.8M. This means that we have $7.2M to sign a free agent. So the ASG would be paying $8M + $7.2M or $15.2M for the right to go from Joe Johnson to whoever the mystery $7.2M FA is and we would still be were we are now right under the luxury tax line.

DOES THIS MEAN I SHOULD STOP THINKING ABOUT TYSON CHANDLER, NENE, ETC.?

Yes. Yes, it does.

Edited December 1, 2011 by AHF

[MaceCase]

Sticky.

[thecampster]

AHF,

Thanks for this. However, I'll bet $6 and a half a pack of twinkies it doesn't stop the annual flood of "We should sign these 9 NBA stars and make room by waiving our 12th man" posts.

However, thanks for tidebreaker.

So let me add on to your post with this tiny tidbit.

People, if you think "someone" is coming to Atlanta, then they are coming here in a straight up trade or a sign and trade. Analyze why another team would do such a deal and why we would want it too. Familiarize yourself with the requirements and process and then post those in the trade forum, not on the main page.

Edited November 30, 2011 by thecampster

[macdaddy]

What about Keith Benson? Is he on the team?

[NekiEcko]

You wont be seeing alot of FA action but you will see alot of trades going on, and that is what might need to happen. Beside my personal opinion that this core is almost done and something needs to happen, not no "Waiting on a Miracle" to happen in the second round.

[Watchman]

The salary cap for this season is 58M. The tax line is 70M.

The Hawks have the following committed salaries:

Joe Johnson $18M

Josh Smith $12.5M

Al Horford $12M

Kirk Hinrich $8M

Marvin Williams $8M

Zaza Pachulia $4.75M

Jeff Teague $1.6M

Magnum Rolle $.8M

Pape Sy $.8M

When you add up the exact numbers, we are sitting at $66,596,237 with 3 roster spots to fill.

If you assume minimum salaries for those players, you are talking about adding:

$788,872

$788,872

$788,872

or

$2,366,166

That puts us at $68,962,853 so we have about $1M to play with and could add a 13th player to the roster without going over the luxury tax line or pay a bit more than the minimum to someone (such as a contract for $1.5M). This assumes that we disclaim any interest in Jamal Crawford, whose cap hold is much higher than a minimum salary.

HOW MUCH COULD WE SPEND IF WE WERE WILLING TO PAY THE TAX?

Even if we were willing to pay the tax, we couldn't sign anyone significant except:

(a) We could pay Jamal Crawford as much as we want since we have his bird rights and

(b) We could use an exception, which maxes out our FA spending at $5M/season.

WILL THE HAWKS PAY THE TAX?

I think the correct thing to assume is that the Hawks are not willing to pay the tax and so only have room to sign basically minimum salary players unless they use their amnesty card.

HOW MUCH COULD WE SPEND IF WE WERE WILLING TO USE AMNESTY ON MARVIN?

Using the amnesty provision on Marvin would reduce our cap figure by $8,050,000 but the owners would still be stuck paying him most of that money. Using amnesty would put Marvin in the auction system for people who are below the cap to bid on players and someone would get him cheap through that system. If you assume someone lands him with a $3M bid, the owners start off by paying $5M to Marvin. (It is unclear what happens with multiyear contracts at this point so I am ignoring that and focusing on this season).

Cutting $8,050,000 off the cap brings our commitment down to basically $60.8M. This is still over the cap so it doesn't give you one penny to sign a free agent that you don't already have. That means the $5M MLE or signing Jamal Crawford are our only exciting options.

If you resign Crawford for $6M, then you can sign someone for a $3M contract and be right at the cap. It would cost the owners $14M to get Crawford and their $3M FA under this scenario. If they were willing to do that, they might as well just sign Crawford and pay the tax because it is about the same and you get Marvin instead of a $3M FA and you keep your ability to use amnesty in the future on Marvin, JJ, Horford, etc. in case one of them has a huge breakdown or deterioration.

HOW MUCH COULD WE SPEND IF WE WERE WILLING TO USE AMNESTY ON JOE?

Using the amnesty provision on JJ would reduce our cap figure by $18,038,573 and the owners would still be stuck paying him a lot of that money. Using amnesty would put JJ in the auction system for people who are below the cap to bid on players and someone would get him cheap through that system. If you assume someone lands him with a $10M bid, the owners start off by paying $8M to JJ. (It is unclear what happens with multiyear contracts at this point so I am ignoring that and focusing on this season).

Cutting $18M off the cap brings our commitment down to basically $50.8M. This means that we have $7.2M to sign a free agent. So the ASG would be paying $8M + $7.2M or $15.2M for the right to go from Joe Johnson to whoever the mystery $7.2M FA is and we would still be were we are now right under the luxury tax line.

DOES THIS MEAN I SHOULD STOP THINKING ABOUT TYSON CHANDLER, NENE, ETC.?

Yes. Yes, it does.

Killjoy. Our hopes have been dashed.

[lethalweapon3]

Thank you bunches for this AHF.

One clarification for me, please, on the Mulligan for Marvin, in case I'm reading it wrong...

If you resign Crawford for $6M, then you can sign someone for a $3M contract and be right at the cap.

...was that meant to say LT level, instead of the cap?

~lw3

[AHF]

Thank you bunches for this AHF.

One clarification for me, please, on the Mulligan for Marvin, in case I'm reading it wrong...

...was that meant to say LT level, instead of the cap?

~lw3

That is correct - it should say LT level. I will correct.

[coachx]

Thanks AHF.

Some have beat the basic common sense drum for years now......... seems like it goes in one ear and out the other.

Edited December 1, 2011 by coachx

[Guest]

Thanks AHF. I think with the shortened season and training camps, I think the ASG will keep the team as is and sign minimum players to fill in roster since they can't do much else beyond a big trade. The ASG will sell us on continuity and such. I think the teams' records at the trading deadline will determine what kind of trades if any they will make.

[Randy]

A couple of more scenarios/questions - could they solve the problem by trading either Marvin, Kirk or Josh to either a team that is below the cap (so they can take the salary) or one above it that doesn't care? And can't they always do a trade for a player(s) who makes about the same as one or more of the above?

Lots of Josh Smith-new address rumors, btw.

[Guest Walter]

I really feel like we need a 1 for 2 or 2 for 3 trade. ZaZa, MW for 3 players? I like that just about all of our core players can play multiple positions well, but if we get a couple of injuries we may not be able to field a starting lineup no matter how we switch them up.

W

[frankthetank966]

I cannot believe Magnum and Pape make .8 million, thats absurd! I'll take that half of that to sit on the bench. Also, Kurt is a terrible contract. He is now one of the worst contracts we have. Great deal Sund... not!

[Joker]

I cannot believe Magnum and Pape make .8 million, thats absurd! I'll take that half of that to sit on the bench. Also, Kurt is a terrible contract. He is now one of the worst contracts we have. Great deal Sund... not!

It's an excellent deal unless we lose the blockbuster deal which is unlikely.

[Supporter]

Imagine if Joe got around 13 mill this year, we could actually get someone...

[Joker]

Imagine if Joe got around 13 mill this year, we could actually get someone...

It could be worst, we could not have Joe at all. Then we would be the Milwaukee Bucks.

[xhawk]

We are probably looking at Damien Wilkins, Jason Collins and/or Mario West. Our big advantage is that the team has been together for a number of years so we might as well keep that trend.

[frankthetank966]

We are probably looking at Damien Wilkins, Jason Collins and/or Mario West. Our big advantage is that the team has been together for a number of years so we might as well keep that trend.

We need to add another piece, esp. if we loose Jamal we are taking a big step back.

[Joker]

Honestly, I like Quintel Woods.

[Watchman]

I cannot believe Magnum and Pape make .8 million, thats absurd! I'll take that half of that to sit on the bench. Also, Kurt is a terrible contract. He is now one of the worst contracts we have. Great deal Sund... not!

Who is Kurt? Did we sign Kurt Thomas?