Hawks Predictions

[Plainview1981]

Too many new pieces to not suffer chemistry issues in the beginning. I think they will finish with between 38-44 wins assuming that they remain fairly healthy.PG: Jeff Teague: 13.5 PPG, 3 RPG and 5 APG on 45% shootingSG: Devin Harris: 13 PPG, 4 APG on 44% shootingSF:Josh Smith: 17 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4 APG on 43% shootingPF:Al Horford: 18 PPG, 9RPG, 3 APG on 50% shootingC:ZaZa: 6.5 PPG, 7 RPG6th man: Lou Williams: 13 PPG, 3 APG on 43% shooting 34% 3pt7th man: Ivan Johnson: 6 PPG, 5 RPG on 48% shooting8th man: Kyle Korver: 6PPG on 45% shooting and 42% 3ptThe more I look at the team, the more I like what we have. With the exception of being undersized at the SG spot and lacking one decent big man.When I really look at the team, I like the idea of having 4 guys in the starting line up that can pass some.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Hotlanta1981

[capstone21]

I am thinking 35 - 37 win range.

[AHF]

The more I look at the team, the more I like what we have.

Who are you and what have you done with Hotlanta!??!?

[Plainview1981]

Who are you and what have you done with Hotlanta!??!?

It's complex. If I thought we could land a top notch FA I would be totally excited about where the team is at. The downside is that we likely will not land one of those guys and the team will not be able to get a top draft pick. So this does look like a waste year in a lot of ways. I've said since the trades happened that I thought this team could make the playoffs. That hasn't changed all of a sudden. What I've been unhappy about is that we will not get a top FA or a top draft pick this year. That's the part I haven't liked.

[PureGreatness]

Teague - 14.5 ppg 5.0 apg 5.3rpgHarris - 12.6ppg 7.1apg 3rpgSmith - 20ppg 9.0rpg 3.2apg [47.5% shooting]Horford - 16.0ppg 9.8rpg 3.1apgWilliams - 13.8ppg 2.7apg45-38 Record.6th seed.

Edited July 27, 2012 by PureGreatness

[Guest]

If we stand pat with our current roster with no major moves, I'm going with 47 wins and the 5th seed in the east behind Miami, Boston, Brooklyn, and Indy. I think Horford and Teague improve the most as far as stat production is concerned. I think we will upset Indy in the first round of the playoffs, then lose to Miami in the 2nd round. GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ps I love Hotlanta's optimism ;-) it's been a while.

[thecampster]

Too many new pieces to not suffer chemistry issues in the beginning. I think they will finish with between 38-44 wins assuming that they remain fairly healthy. PG: Jeff Teague: 13.5 PPG, 3 RPG and 5 APG on 45% shooting SG: Devin Harris: 13 PPG, 4 APG on 44% shooting SF:Josh Smith: 17 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4 APG on 43% shooting PF:Al Horford: 18 PPG, 9RPG, 3 APG on 50% shooting C:ZaZa: 6.5 PPG, 7 RPG 6th man: Lou Williams: 13 PPG, 3 APG on 43% shooting 34% 3pt 7th man: Ivan Johnson: 6 PPG, 5 RPG on 48% shooting 8th man: Kyle Korver: 6PPG on 45% shooting and 42% 3pt The more I look at the team, the more I like what we have. With the exception of being undersized at the SG spot and lacking one decent big man. When I really look at the team, I like the idea of having 4 guys in the starting line up that can pass some.

This is a really accurate assessment I believe. I'm going to tweak it and I'll give criteria but this is pretty close I think. PG: Jeff Teague: 13 PPG, 3 RPG and 4 APG on 45% shooting SG: Devin Harris: 15 PPG, 6 APG on 44% shooting SF:Josh Smith: 19 PPG, 7 RPG, 4.5 APG on 47% shooting PF:Al Horford: 18 PPG, 9RPG, 3 APG on 52% shooting C:ZaZa: 8.5 PPG, 9 RPG Notice I dropped Josh's rebound totals and up'd his scoring a bit. I think with JJ gone, more outside shooting, I think Josh feasts against SF moving without the ball. He is just too big. I think Harris presence allows Jeff to be more of an off the ball PG so he gets similar assists to last year. At this point in their careers, Harris is more reliable as a facilitator. Zaza starting and getting 30 minutes means a little more production but overall I think your predictions are highly credible. Not much different than mine. If your numbers pan out, the hawks top 8 score 93.5 ppg. I think most people would take that. If mine do...we run people off the court most nights. I really do think that highly of Harris being paired with Smith/Horford. oh and I really think 2nd/3rd seed is in reach. One thing people forget. Miami's roster is so top heavy...Lebron, Wade, Bosh must stay healthy. losing one for a significant stretch could hurt them deeply. I believe our team strengths made losing Horford much easier to absorb than if Miami lost one of their big three for that long. Edited July 29, 2012 by thecampster

[bruincoach]

56% of games won46-365th seed in east (Miami, Boston, indiana, Brooklyn)Win first round and lose second roundTeague: 13 ppg 3 rpg 5 apg 30 minutesHarris: 13 ppg 4 rpg 5 apg 30 minutesMorrow: 7 ppg 3 rpg 1 apg 20 minutesSmith: 17 ppg 8 rpg 4 apg 35 minutesHorford: 17 ppg 9 rpg 3 apg 35 minutes6th man: Lou 13 ppg, 2 rpg, 3 apg 27 minutes7th man: zaza 6 ppg, 6 rpg 18 minutes8th man: Stevenson 3 ppg 2 rpg 12 minutes9th man: korver 6 ppg 2 rpg 14 minutes10th man: Jenkins 2 ppg 1rpg 7 minutes11th man: petro 2 ppg 2 rpg 7 minutes12th man: Ivan 2 ppg 2 rpg 5 minutes101 ppg 44 rpg21 apg

[jy23]

48-34....we'll score more than enough to win our fair share of games. Defense will be an issue but not the way some people are making it out to be. We will get torched at the 3 spot but most of those guys are the ones who are going to go off on you anyways, Lebron melo and Durant are gonna get 30-35 no matter who u put on them so really who cares. Josh and al can hold their own against most in the front court and even tho Dwight and Bynum will kill us Dwight has nobody else on his team with him and Bynum we only play twice. People like hibbert and Lopez we can handle so again who cares. I think horford is gonna start this year fast and is gonna start drawing double teams as the year goes on and open up things a lot for our shooters. I expect our offense to be top 5 in the league and carry us to maybe a 4 seed.

[Vol4ever]

Current roster..........41-41. Way too thin in the frontcourt, no bulk at all.

[bruincoach]

Thin in front court?Smith and al. (outside of Howard and Bynum) they can control almost anyone. Gasol, Garnett aldridge griffin stoudemire lopez hibbert to name a few will have size advantages but our guys are better athletes than all except griffin and maybe amareZaza is a bruiser that can hang with half that listPetro is a WAY better big body than damper or Collins ever thought aboutIvan is a great energy guy Williams, Scott and or benson are all decent bugs to sit at the end of the bench and provide energy every 5 games

[lethalweapon3]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/lets-rank-the-nbas-eastern-conference/

6. Atlanta Hawks, 40-26 last season

Key Additions: Lou Williams, Devin Harris, Kyle Korver

Key Subtractions: Joe Johnson, Kirk Hinrich, Marvin Williams

Key Draft Additions: John Jenkins

Josh Smith is in the final year of his contract and most people believed he wanted out and was going to be accommodated, but the Hawks surprised everyone by moving the supposedly immoveable contract belonging to Joe Johnson and the atmosphere changed in Atlanta.

The Hawks lost All-Star Al Horford for most of last season and are a much better team with him in the line-up. Signing Lou Williams for three years at the mid-level exception was a coup as Williams’ per 36 minutes scoring has been over 20 points per game for the past two seasons. Devin Harris is an upgrade at backup point guard and Kyle Korver can score off the bench. With Horford back, this group of Hawks might be just as good as last year’s team.

~lw3

[bird_dirt]

Who are you and what have you done with Hotlanta!??!?

December 21 is coming on fast

[thecampster]

Just some food for thought.Lou Williams PER last year 20.22# of seasons JJ had a 20+ per......zero.Using the much maligned stat of PER. The Hawks have 3 players on the team who had a higher average PER than JJ the last 2 seasons. Josh, Williams, Horford.Note #2: Even with reduced usage, Harris posted a better PER than Teague last year and unlike JJ, he has posted a PER over 20 in his career.Note #3: Marvin had a 15.89 PER last year. His replacements (Korver, Morrow) both had sub 14 PER's.My prediction - We will miss Marvin more than we miss JJ.

Edited August 15, 2012 by thecampster

[Supporter]

Just some food for thought. Lou Williams PER last year 20.22 # of seasons JJ had a 20+ per......zero. Using the much maligned stat of PER. The Hawks have 3 players on the team who had a higher average PER than JJ the last 2 seasons. Josh, Williams, Horford. Note #2: Even with reduced usage, Harris posted a better PER than Teague last year and unlike JJ, he has posted a PER over 20 in his career. Note #3: Marvin had a 15.89 PER last year. His replacements (Korver, Morrow) both had sub 14 PER's. My prediction - We will miss Marvin more than we miss JJ.

Yeh, we will def miss making fun of duck butt in the chat room. Saying that we will miss Marvin moreso than JJ is what North and Dies talk about when they say that people on here disrespect JJ. Edited August 15, 2012 by Supporter

[thecampster]

Yeh, we will def miss making fun of duck butt in the chat room. Saying that we will miss Marvin moreso than JJ is what North and Dies talk about when they say that people on here disrespect JJ.

It's just an opinion but one grounded in BBIQ. As basketball fans we tend to focus primarily on guys who can score 1 on 1. The people teams market. But the people that win help you win games do the dirty work, play within their role. Considering how few touches Marvin got, I was surprised to see how high his PER was. When you couple that with how good his defense really was and the fact we aren't replacing him with anyone of a similar quality, he will be missed. At least in replacing JJ we got a guy in Williams that can create offensive havoc for the other team and a guy in Jenkins who can really space the floor. Not to mention our third guard Harris whose value will be immense to Al/Josh and Teague's development. JJ will be replaced in the sum of parts and I submit what we now have at the guard position is collectively better. No one person in that group equals JJ but as a group playing starter and backup minutes we have improved overall. Just one man's opinion. But unless we bite the bullet and play Josh at the 3, we have taken a big step backwards at the small forward.

[AHF]

It's just an opinion but one grounded in BBIQ. As basketball fans we tend to focus primarily on guys who can score 1 on 1. The people teams market. But the people that win help you win games do the dirty work, play within their role. Considering how few touches Marvin got, I was surprised to see how high his PER was. When you couple that with how good his defense really was and the fact we aren't replacing him with anyone of a similar quality, he will be missed. At least in replacing JJ we got a guy in Williams that can create offensive havoc for the other team and a guy in Jenkins who can really space the floor. Not to mention our third guard Harris whose value will be immense to Al/Josh and Teague's development. JJ will be replaced in the sum of parts and I submit what we now have at the guard position is collectively better. No one person in that group equals JJ but as a group playing starter and backup minutes we have improved overall. Just one man's opinion. But unless we bite the bullet and play Josh at the 3, we have taken a big step backwards at the small forward.

PER does a terrible job of reflecting fundamental defense (i.e., it rewards gambling for blocks and steals but doesn't give a rip if you let your man get an easy layup). We will miss JJ a lot of defense and that won't be reflected in the PER number. You can make the same case for Marvin.

[wolvetigers]

Hawks should be in the 45 win range..about 7th seed in the East..

[Watchman]

will be lucky if we win 20 witch is bad but our salery cap 2013 is low

OK. Last year we won 60% of our games in a shortened season. 82 x 60% = 49 wins. So you would attribute 29 wins to JJ, Marvin, Hinrich, Twin, Stackhouse, McGrady and Dampier? And that's saying that Williams, Harris, Morrow, et al will be responsible for no wins at all. I don't think so. Edited August 15, 2012 by Watchman

[lethalweapon3]

The folks at HOOPSWORLD chime in. Similar to Big Baby, most of the panel have no problem with "seconds".

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2012-2013-atlanta-hawks-season-preview/

Five Guys Think…

The Joe Johnson trade was lopsided and unfavorable for the Hawks from a talent standpoint. However, it was a move they had to make in order to create some flexibility for the future. As assembled the Hawks had peaked. With Johnson’s contract off the books they’ll potentially be able to make big moves next summer that could lead them to heights they couldn’t reach beforehand. In the meantime, the Southeast is still weak enough for them to remain the second-best team in it. Look for them to replace Johnson’s scoring by committee with several players stepping up in his place.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Yannis Koutroupis

Joe Johnson may be gone, but Hawks GM Danny Ferry didn’t throw his team into a rebuilding mode with the move. In fact, the Hawks have a decent chance of being as good as they were last season. Josh Smith likes the new direction of the team, which is important, and with Devin Harris in the mix the backcourt will be more competitive this season. Anthony Morrow will keep defenses spaced with his ability to knock down the open three, so the Hawks won’t miss Johnson’s outside game. The Hawks aren’t any worse than they were last season, and they might even be a little bit better.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Bill Ingram

The Atlanta Hawks were able to trade Joe Johnson’s monster contract over the offseason, which gives them much more flexibility going forward. However, the Hawks may have to take a step back before they take a step forward. Atlanta will likely finish as the second-best team in the Southeast Division behind the Miami HEAT, but that’s only because it’s a weak division that features young, rebuilding teams like the Charlotte Bobcats, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards. New general manager Danny Ferry has the Hawks headed in the right direction, but it’s unlikely that the Hawks will make any noise in the playoffs this year with a roster that features many role players on expiring contracts.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Alex Kennedy

Bless you, Danny Ferry, for trading the untradeable contract, but you’ve still got a lot of work to do with the roster you’ve got leftover. For all the praise he got for dumping Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams, Ferry did an odd job piecing together a roster post-trade. Mostly, he acquired a ton of middle-tier shooters, like Lou Williams, Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow, and rookie John Jenkins, none of whom really looked primed to fill Johnson’s role in the offense. Apparently, they’re going to try and do it by committee for now. The team really is still Josh Smith and Al Horford’s, though, and they’re the guys who should lead this team while they play out the year and hopefully get themselves an opportunity to chase after a major free agent in the summer of 2013. In the meanwhile it isn’t going to be particularly pretty, though.

3rd Place – Southeast Division

– Joel Brigham

Ever since the Atlanta Hawks named Danny Ferry their president of basketball operations and general manager back in June, the winds of change have become the way of life for the franchise. One of Ferry’s first moves at the helm was trading franchise player Joe Johnson to the Brooklyn Nets, a move which freed up $90 million in future salary and will give the Hawks plenty of flexibility to improve via trade or free agency going forward. Even without Johnson in the lineup, the team should still contend for a playoff spot in 2013 behind the play of Al Horford, Josh Smith and Jeff Teague. The problem is, as currently constructed the Hawks are in the middle of the pack which is a place Ferry has no desire to remain long term. Expect more changes in Atlanta this season.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Lang Greene

Top Of The List

Top Offensive Player: While forward John Smith is the team’s most explosive scorer due to his ability to finish on the fast break, the Hawks’ most efficient scorer is two-time All-Star center Al Horford. Before last season’s injury-plagued campaign, the former University of Florida standout had improved his points per game output and field goal percentages in each of his first four full seasons in the league. Horford is also one of the most dangerous jump shooting big men in the game today with a solid midrange game out to twenty feet. The biggest knock on Horford is that he’s a bit too unselfish offensively and in the past would routinely go stretches of games ranking third, fourth or sometimes fifth on the team in field goals attempted. With Joe Johnson’s departure to Brooklyn, Horford will be counted to raise his offensive game to the next level for the franchise.

Top Defensive Player: No matter how the end of season voting plays out, Josh Smith is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He nearly walked home with the award in 2010, finishing second to center Dwight Howard. Smith has finished top five in the league in blocks per game in four out of the past seven seasons and already ranks 44th on the all-time career list at just 26 years old.

Top Playmaker: Jeff Teague is not a high-volume assist-producing point guard, however, some of that distinction could be attributed to head coach Larry Drew’s motion offense which stresses ball movement. The dynamic Teague provides the Hawks is heavily centered on his quickness and ability to penetrate the lane at will. The fourth-year guard will have an assortment of shooters waiting on the wing ready to hoist three-point buckets off his dribble-drives. The addition of Kyle Korver, John Jenkins and Anthony Morrow should keep opposing defenses honest enough to allow Teague to go to work.

Top Clutch Player: This distinction isn’t about clutch scoring, but Josh Smith’s ability to make key plays in late game situations for the team will be huge. Smith can be a force on both ends of the floor. He has the versatility to defend multiple positions and possesses a speed advantage against bigger defenders offensively. Smith is also the club’s emotional leader. It is not uncommon for those following the club to see the team’s demeanor frequently mirroring Smith’s.

The Unheralded Player: Zaza Pachulia’s name won’t resonate with the casual fan, but as reserve big men go in today’s NBA the veteran center’s name should be near the top of the list. With two-time All-Star Al Horford appearing in just 11 regular season games in 2012 due to injury, Pachulia filled in admirably as a starter by averaging 8.7 points and 8.8 rebounds on 51 percent shooting. Pachulia will be a free agent next summer and it is unknown if he’s part of the team’s long term plans, but his teammates have always raved about his toughness, work ethic and the way he fits in the locker room.

The Best New Addition: The Hawks traded Joe Johnson to the Brooklyn Nets this past summer and with the move sent a consistent 18-20 point nightly threat to a new zip code. Even though his offensive production was on a slide in recent seasons, it’s still going to be hard to replace Johnson because at 6’7 he produced all types of mismatches the Hawks were able to exploit. Enter high scoring shooting guard Lou Williams, who the Hawks signed to a three-year $15.7 million deal in free agency. Williams has the ability to play both guard spots and over the past two seasons has been a 20+ point per game scorer on a per 36 minute basis.

– Lang Greene

Strengths

Despite the roster shakeup this past summer, the Hawks will still have enough talent to make a run for a spot in the playoffs. The team’s strength will be in its ability to shoot from long range with John Jenkins, Anthony Morrow and Kyle Korver all possessing elite-level range. The long-range accuracy will help the team’s returning starters Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jeff Teague offensively. Horford and Smith will be able to operate on the low block free from consistent double teams most nights and the collection of shooters will also give Teague more lanes to penetrate and attack the basket.

– Lang Greene

Weaknesses

The Hawks lack size in the frontcourt and depth on the wing. Both Josh Smith and Al Horford could be considered undersized in their respective power forward and center roles. Another area the Hawks need to address is at the small forward position. Team executive Danny Ferry dealt Marvin Williams; the team’s starting small forward since 2007, to the Utah Jazz in a trade which netted guard Devin Harris. To date, the Hawks have not found a legitimate replacement to handle major minutes at the three spot.

– Lang Greene

What Needs To Be Said On Opening Day….

My goal is for us to be one of the fastest teams in the league this year. In Jeff and Devin, we have two lightening-quick players that can really push the ball up the floor. You two will be responsible for setting our pace every game. If you don’t force the tempo, it won’t inspire guys to run with you and we definitely want to get Al and Josh racing up the floor. But, just because we play fast doesn’t mean we need to neglect our defense. That, as usual, is the real key to major growth. Our defense staying solid and producing turnovers will fuel our running game to play faster. So let’s play hard on D, fast on O and win as many as we can.

- Anthony Macri and Brett Koremenos

The Burning Question

Are the Atlanta Hawks reloading on the fly or was the Joe Johnson trade the start of a massive rebuilding project?

The Atlanta Hawks have reached the playoffs for five-consecutive seasons, but only Josh Smith, Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia remain from the start of the streak. With Joe Johnson now hoisting jumpers for Brooklyn and Marvin Williams serving as a glue guy for Utah, what will be the Hawks’ next move? The Hawks will have roughly $35 million in salary cap room next summer and could become a major player in free agency. Or the franchise can use some of the room to lock up Smith and Jeff Teague long term. But the question remains, is Danny Ferry sold the team can rise to an elite level on the backs of Al Horford and Smith? If he isn’t, more changes are undoubtedly on the way.

– Lang Greene

~lw3