Merged: Discussion on Tanking

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Tanking is such a strong word. Playing our young guys sounds better. We obviously know how Miami obtained their Big 3 (Free Agency) and how San Antonio (Tank for Duncan and draft well) and LA (Masterful trades and FA acquisitions). Let us look at the Boston Big 3 beginning: 1. In June they traded the #5 pick (Jeff Green) plus Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak in exchange for Ray Allen and the 35th pick.

2. On July 31st, Boston sent the Minnesota Timberwolves forwards Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green, guard Sebastian Telfair and center Theo Ratliff, two first-round draft picks and cash considerations.

Boston's strategy was simple; accumulate future draft picks and young talent. Play the young talent in order to increase their value and have enough cap space to be ready for any potential blockbuster deal.

That wasn't their strategy though.

Boston's draft picks starting in 2004

2004 . . . Delonte West ( 24 ) and Tony Allen ( 25 )

Boston wins 45 games, but loses in Round 1.

They certainly didn't rush him back, but i'll give you that . Spurs got lucky.

Robinson hurt his back, then broke his foot.

There was no rushing back. He was injured.

[DJlaysitup]

I wouldn't call it "Tanking" at least at this point - how about "selective competing" .

I mean there are two ways to approach our current situation when it's obvious we are in a transitional phase.

1. You get the big free agents (D12 - CP3)...or 2. You rebuild and selectively compete with the notion of getting into the lottery and grabbing a stellar player who will lead you to success in the future.

As far as what we owe AL Horford - we owe him a paycheck - period - he is a professional, he signed his contract and he is rich, and he is expected to compete at the best of his abilities no matter who his teammates are. Heck he could be better off getting "showcased" on a losing team anyways.

[Wretch]

Tanking would alienate the guys that are here and the free agents that we seek. IF we're going to tank, we have to trade Horf to a better situation and get a team filled with guys trying to make their mark in the league. Guys that the league has forgotten. Morever, I don't think our fanbase can take a tank.

I don't buy this part. First, they're not really behind the team now. We are at the bottom of the league in attendance and how much of that is because the marquee teams show up and the bandwagon comes out? The Hawks have always been a mediocre draw - both in the regular season and the playoffs and we don't have (and haven't had) a truly marketable player since Nique.

What does being a bad team matter? Attendance can't get too much worse. Moreover, at least you have a reason for losing. To the average fan, losing is losing. Doesn't matter if you lose games all season long or if you lose in a pitiful 1st or 2nd round playoff game. The only real difference is that those teams in the lottery are losing for lack of talent.

You can't stay "good" all the time. Not unless you're the Spurs or Lakers or Knicks where you have a young, championship core OR you have a market that is a perpetual FA draw by itself (LA/NY). Those teams maintain success for long periods of time and are playing for the big prize. If you're the Hawks, you're just shooting yourself in the face by maintaining mediocrity.

...and no matter how many 50 win seasons we put together, that's what it is. You have to REBUILD when you reach that ceiling or score a major coup in free agency. Again, have you guys been watching the same team I have? Major free agent coups are not something that the Hawks are known for. So, if we don't get CP3/Howard...then what?

Build another pretty good team and tweak it for 3-5 years before we what? Build another pretty good team and tweak it for 3-5 years and then what? Retool, and build another pretty good team of B and C list players, tweak it for another 3-5 years and then what? Shuffle the deck a little and add someone else's castoff (I.e. - Crawford, Big Dog, Antoine Walker) and then get slapped around in the 1st round and then what? Overpay and sign a MAJOR free agent like Joe Johnson, tweak a B-List squad, win 2 games in the 2nd round and then what?

...dude.

[Buzzard]

I don't buy this part. First, they're not really behind the team now. We are at the bottom of the league in attendance and how much of that is because the marquee teams show up and the bandwagon comes out? The Hawks have always been a mediocre draw - both in the regular season and the playoffs and we don't have (and haven't had) a truly marketable player since Nique.

...dude.

I buy it because I am old enough to remember when Hawks fans rooted for our players like John Drew, Danny Roundfield, Tree Rollins, Dominique Wilkins, Kevin Willis, Spud Webb, Doc Rivers etc..to beat the stuffing out of Dr J, Charles Barkley, Clyde Drexler, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas etc.

There is more than one way to rebuild. 100% tanking is the long way and putting all your eggs in a draft basket is never a sure thing. I love what Danny has done by making us so flexible. We not only have picks, we have cap. We not only have cap, we have players for a variety of reasons with value.

Draft, Free agency, Trades that is how a good GM gives himself a better chance than just playing the draft.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Buzzard

[AHF]

And that means we have flexibility to take on cap in a trade. Not to mention valuable locked up players in Al, Al, Teague, Lou, and Tyreke. plus who we draft with our two 1st round picks.

In order to make big moves you need a few things but it all comes down to one thing, assets that are valuable. Cap space, young players, and decent players are a hell of a combination

Oh, you wanted to resign Teague?

Then you zero cap flexibility.

Al Horford $12,000,000

Lou Williams $5,450,000

John Jenkins $1,312,920

Pick #17 $1,406,163.60

Pick #18 $1,335,865.85

Jeff Teague $7,500,000

Al Jefferson $11,000,000

Tyreke Evans $9,500,000

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Total Salaries & Charges $52,058,849

[Buzzard]

Oh, you wanted to resign Teague?

Then you zero cap flexibility.

Al Horford $12,000,000

Lou Williams $5,450,000

John Jenkins $1,312,920

Pick #17 $1,406,163.60

Pick #18 $1,335,865.85

Jeff Teague $7,500,000

Al Jefferson $11,000,000

Tyreke Evans $9,500,000

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Roster Charge $490,180

Total Salaries & Charges $52,058,849

I don't have a problem with that lineup at all. I would even say resign Korver to beat out a competing MLE. The roster flexibility is awesome. Good cheap contracts in Jenkins, plus our two picks. Guards a many on reasonable contracts. And two very good big men who have not hit 30 yet.

Its obviously not Howard and CP3. But its a good start in the right direction. D12 and CP3 is a one season turn around. The above is a longer range plan B, unless you think Ferry would just rest after only one good off season.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Buzzard

[Peoriabird]

If we get Jefferson at $11 million per year, I am down for that!

[Wretch]

I buy it because I am old enough to remember when Hawks fans rooted for our players like John Drew, Danny Roundfield, Tree Rollins, Dominique Wilkins, Kevin Willis, Spud Webb, Doc Rivers etc..to beat the stuffing out of Dr J, Charles Barkley, Clyde Drexler, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas etc.

There is more than one way to rebuild. 100% tanking is the long way and putting all your eggs in a draft basket is never a sure thing. I love what Danny has done by making us so flexible. We not only have picks, we have cap. We not only have cap, we have players for a variety of reasons with value.

Draft, Free agency, Trades that is how a good GM gives himself a better chance than just playing the draft.

First...none of us are saying the draft is the ONLY component to rebuilding. It's not. Secondly, I'm not saying that we have never had any fan support at all. I'm saying that historically, and currently, our fan base is indifferent to the Hawks at best. I was responding to what Diesel (and others too) alluded to - that our franchise cannot afford to let the team slide. Losing just creates a bad image, we lose respect, we're tying to attract FA's, promote a winning culture...yada, yada, etc. That's just not a valid argument against tanking/rebuilding whatever you want to call it.

Look how quickly the Clippers turned into a desirable destination. Chris Paul embraced the opportunity and his preference is to stay, why? Certainly not because the Clippers are such a successful, world class organization. It was because of the talent already in place. Players recognize talent and...y'know what...why am I even saying this?

This is common sense! Players go where they think they have the best shot at winning. It doesn't matter if you are a perpetual bottom feeder or a contender. If you have the money AND you have exceptional talent (not mediocre/B-list talent), then you have a chance and it doesn't matter what you record was the last couple of years.

We are already seen as a losing ballclub! Maybe not in the win/loss column, but any conversation about the Atlanta Hawks is immediately dismissed. Just had a conversation with a guy from Miami who's here on business at my job. He's a 15 year Heat fan and we discussed his team. I told him that in the same way, I was a lifelong Hawks fan. His reaction when I brought up the Hawks? The same that I have gotten from people over the past 17 years:

In the NBA, you are either a lottery team, a team on the rise, a contender, a champion, or you are just cannon fodder. In Pro Wrestling, it's called a JOBBER - a dude who's role is nothing more than showing up, getting beat on, maybe act like he MIGHT win (but usually just gets wasted), and take the fall. We are the ice and rock salt used to make Ice Cream. We are kindling for the fire. It's time for people to wake up and face the facts - WE ARE A LOSER RIGHT NOW.

The **********ONLY********** way to change that is to acquire the talent that can compete with the best the NBA has to offer. You either draft it, trade for it, or sign it as a free agent. If you have nothing to trade for it (which we don't), then you won't get it. You're not going to draft talent like that in the late teens and beyond. So, if you toss all that out, then you're stuck with relying on free agency.

Simple as that sounds, some people just don't get it. You think the players don't know how valuable they are? OF COURSE they do! Duh right? Again...where is the disconnect here? These guys are going to get what they want - which is a chance to WIN. Their best chance of winning is going to a situation with other players of equal caliber. There are 30 teams in the NBA scrambling to position themselves to land that talent. The favorites to acquire the best players in the league are those teams that already have exceptional talent in place.

We don't have that kind of talent. We don't have a winning culture. We don't have a winning history. We don't have a great fan base. If we fill our roster with a bunch of "good" players because we can't sign the big guys, then we won't even have the money to sign those players.

Then what...?

Overpay for tier 3/4 talent like Joe Johnson, get slapped around in the 2nd round of the playoffs by the real talent, then what? How do you guys NOT see this?

At some point, you've got to try your hand at the draft. It's just inevitable and it's the natural life cycle of the game. You need those assets. You may not draft a Jordan or Barkley (or shit, you just might! Who F'N knows!?)...but at least you will have ASSETS - the most valuable assets - to deal with.

The plan isn't simply, be terrible, get a bunch of lottery picks, build a team through the draft, and ignore free agency/trades. No team does that and nobody that advocates building through the draft expects that. The plan would be to STOP trying to make the playoffs because we are NOT a contender, we're NOT on the rise, and we're ending up with draft picks that are not going to change anything. This is why the middle is the worst place to be.

It's different if you're a young team on the rise. You've already drafted your future, you have cap space, you have great assets in place. This was us in 2007/2008 - and we f***ed that up. We f***ed it up from the very beginning and we f***ed it up even more by holding onto these guys longer than we should have. Then, after we were done totally ass-raping ourselves, we took a massive crap on ourselves by holding on to the core and refusing to make any changes.

We need to do all that we can to get the ***BEST*** talent here.

IF that fails... We need to GUT this team, get our asses into the NBA draft, acquire as much talent that we can (without breaking the bank), and keep our eyes open for opportunity to change the team. I will admit that I'm more than a little intrigued by Al Jefferson as plan B, but if I had to pick...I'd say let this thing go and just TANK.

...which AGAIN doesn't mean simply put all of our eggs into the NBA lottery and ignore FAcy/trades. It just means let's go fishing in the top of the draft, where the NBA's stars are found, and see what we can pull out of there.

If you happened to read that Wretchedly long winded rant...I owe you a dollar. You're a special person. lol

Edited June 19, 2013 by Wretch

[tbhawksfan]

Thats basically the team that I think has the highest probability and the one I'm predicting. Not to nitpick but I think I'd prefer Brewer as a big, athletic wing who can D and hit a corner shot. Look for another shooter in the Minimums.Draft Gobert, Plumlee and a SFand a PG with the secondsJefferson / Gobert / Min FAHorford / PLumleeBrewer / Min FA / 2ndTyreke / JJ / Min FAJT / Lou / 2ndThat's my guess

[AHF]

Thats basically the team that I think has the highest probability and the one I'm predicting. Not to nitpick but I think I'd prefer Brewer as a big, athletic wing who can D and hit a corner shot. Look for another shooter in the Minimums.Draft Gobert, Plumlee and a SFand a PG with the secondsJefferson / Gobert / Min FAHorford / PLumleeBrewer / Min FA / 2ndTyreke / JJ / Min FAJT / Lou / 2ndThat's my guess

My guess is that this roster will be deciding whether to go for chips or popcorn while watching the ECF on HDTV.

[Diesel]

I don't buy this part. First, they're not really behind the team now. We are at the bottom of the league in attendance and how much of that is because the marquee teams show up and the bandwagon comes out? The Hawks have always been a mediocre draw - both in the regular season and the playoffs and we don't have (and haven't had) a truly marketable player since Nique.

What does being a bad team matter? Attendance can't get too much worse. Moreover, at least you have a reason for losing. To the average fan, losing is losing. Doesn't matter if you lose games all season long or if you lose in a pitiful 1st or 2nd round playoff game. The only real difference is that those teams in the lottery are losing for lack of talent.

You can't stay "good" all the time. Not unless you're the Spurs or Lakers or Knicks where you have a young, championship core OR you have a market that is a perpetual FA draw by itself (LA/NY). Those teams maintain success for long periods of time and are playing for the big prize. If you're the Hawks, you're just shooting yourself in the face by maintaining mediocrity.

...and no matter how many 50 win seasons we put together, that's what it is. You have to REBUILD when you reach that ceiling or score a major coup in free agency. Again, have you guys been watching the same team I have? Major free agent coups are not something that the Hawks are known for. So, if we don't get CP3/Howard...then what?

Build another pretty good team and tweak it for 3-5 years before we what? Build another pretty good team and tweak it for 3-5 years and then what? Retool, and build another pretty good team of B and C list players, tweak it for another 3-5 years and then what? Shuffle the deck a little and add someone else's castoff (I.e. - Crawford, Big Dog, Antoine Walker) and then get slapped around in the 1st round and then what? Overpay and sign a MAJOR free agent like Joe Johnson, tweak a B-List squad, win 2 games in the 2nd round and then what?

...dude.

Our Failure to attract free agents is a direct result of mismanagement of our players. Over the years, we developed reputation of a team that didn't treat their players well, put their players in losing situations in order to get better lottery position, hired cheap coaches in order to keep the status quo. The biggest failure that tanking brings to us is the loss of Free agent interest. The lottery is and has been rigged. So we risk upsetting our reputation with FAs just so that we can get a seat in a rigged game... I hear you about retooling, but have you ever noticed that several championship teams never have to tank?

[Wretch]

Our Failure to attract free agents is a direct result of mismanagement of our players. Over the years, we developed reputation of a team that didn't treat their players well, put their players in losing situations in order to get better lottery position, hired cheap coaches in order to keep the status quo. The biggest failure that tanking brings to us is the loss of Free agent interest. The lottery is and has been rigged. So we risk upsetting our reputation with FAs just so that we can get a seat in a rigged game... I hear you about retooling, but have you ever noticed that several championship teams never have to tank?

Some teams have great players in place (which they found during a slide in the standing) and they built great programs around them. San Antonio and LA both spring to mind in that they had great management, made the right deals, and had some luck. But how is trying to copy that luck/success pattern any different than trying to mimic what the Bulls did and draft Michael Jordan?

The Hawks are not the Lakers, Atlanta is not New York, and we do not have Tim Duncan... If we are not drafting talent high, and we don't have the assets to acquire great talent through trades, then we expect the top tier talent to just look at us and want to be here because we say, "Hey! We're the new Spurs! Come make us great!"

We are already a laughing stock. Sliding into the bottom half of the league isn't going to change that. The only thing that's going to change it is a player that can turn heads. If we strike out on CP3/Howard, clearly our best shot at acquiring such a talent, then how can we expect it to be any different when we don't have the best shot at a marquee FA? We have the PERFECT storm right now and we STILL might not sign one of these guys...

I'd much rather chance the draft and be in a position to NOT miss out on CP3 or Deron or Howard...than to watch a floundering middle of the pack team throw away years that we could be acquiring talent and throw away cap space.

[Diesel]

If I were to tank...

I would want to tank in a growth forward environment.

I would sign and trade Smoove for picks.

I would trade Horf for somebody up and coming like Andre Drummond.

I might resign Teague.

Here's why:

If you're tanking, it's best to tank with players who aren't vets and aren't expecting to win right now.

I would give Detroit enough capspace to go after Iguodala.

[BrazilianHawk]

As I undertand, losing happens, especially to bad teams.

On the other hand, losing on purpose is definetly for LOSERS.

I'd much rather enjoy watching 5-10 seasons of 1st and 2nd round bounces than a lost decade of incompetence and futility.

[Wretch]

As I undertand, losing happens, especially to bad teams.

On the other hand, losing on purpose is definetly for LOSERS.

I'd much rather enjoy watching 5-10 seasons of 1st and 2nd round bounces than a lost decade of incompetence and futility.

Well...therein lies the quandary.

Do you take the sure bet and win games...and end up like we are now? Hoping that CP3 and Howard look our way? Begging and old/fat/ready to retire Shaq or TMac to sign with us?

- OR -

Do you gamble and chance greatness? You will lose games, but you WILL come out of it with talent/assets. With smart drafting (which San Antonio seems to have written the book on), you could come out of it with elite talent/assets.

Me? I'd choose the latter because I already KNOW what "win without losing" nets you.

[Wretch]

If I were to tank...

I would want to tank in a growth forward environment.

I would sign and trade Smoove for picks.

I would trade Horf for somebody up and coming like Andre Drummond.

I might resign Teague.

Here's why:

If you're tanking, it's best to tank with players who aren't vets and aren't expecting to win right now.

I would give Detroit enough capspace to go after Iguodala.

That's a good question....what you do with Al if you rebuild. I don't think you can keep Al and Teague, because the combination of those two with some decent vets is going to get you LATE lottery at best and maybe (probably) a playoff birth. Especially if you don't have Smoove in there gunking up the offense with jumpers.

[tbhawksfan]

There were some Clev posters ready to offer #1, #16 and their 2 early seconds for Horford. If we don't get CP/DH, then it's either tank or sign a team like above. I don't like the mediocrity route either.If we tank, is it with or without Horf? If we keep him it's more of a quick rebuild and we should look to snag 1 nice FA this year (Pek?). If we were to trade Horf, we would have a high lot and 3 mid firsts, plus our 2 secons at worst.S&T Smith and Teague for 2014 picks and it's the rebuild of the century.Ferry might just blow a fuse thinking about all the possibilities

[NBASupes]

There were some Clev posters ready to offer #1, #16 and their 2 early seconds for Horford. If we don't get CP/DH, then it's either tank or sign a team like above. I don't like the mediocrity route either.If we tank, is it with or without Horf? If we keep him it's more of a quick rebuild and we should look to snag 1 nice FA this year (Pek?). If we were to trade Horf, we would have a high lot and 3 mid firsts, plus our 2 secons at worst.S&T Smith and Teague for 2014 picks and it's the rebuild of the century.Ferry might just blow a fuse thinking about all the possibilities

If the draft was before FA that would be possible. I wish it was.

[Buzzard]

That's a good question....what you do with Al if you rebuild. I don't think you can keep Al and Teague, because the combination of those two with some decent vets is going to get you LATE lottery at best and maybe (probably) a playoff birth. Especially if you don't have Smoove in there gunking up the offense with jumpers.

OKC was in the lottery four straight seasons before making the playoffs

Memphis was in the lottery four straight seasons before making the playoffs

NY Knicks were in the lottery six straight seasons before making the playoffs

NY Nets were in the lottery five straight seasons before making the playoffs

LA Clippers were in the lottery five straight season before making the playoffs

GS Warriors were in the lottery five straight seasons before making the playoffs

Everybody thinks its easy to build by sucking. Even if you get lucky as hell and draft a Durant and Westbrook, or a Gasol, Conley and pick up a Zbo, tanking is a very long and painful experience. Miss out on one franchise or good player and four years of being a bottom feeder turns into five or six.

Are you really ready for that?

Edited June 20, 2013 by Buzzard

[yungsta]

OKC was in the lottery four straight seasons before making the playoffs

Memphis was in the lottery four straight seasons before making the playoffs

NY Knicks were in the lottery six straight seasons before making the playoffs

NY Nets were in the lottery five straight seasons before making the playoffs

LA Clippers were in the lottery five straight season before making the playoffs

GS Warriors were in the lottery five straight seasons before making the playoffs

Everybody thinks its easy to build by sucking. Even if you get lucky as hell and draft a Durant and Westbrook, or a Gasol, Conley and pick up a Zbo, tanking is a very long and painful experience. Miss out on one franchise or good player and four years of being a bottom feeder turns into five or six.

Are you really ready for that?

how many of those team had terrible management that made bad decision after bad decision? The OKC thunder were only a lottery team in their first season under new ownership.

It other teams own fault they were in lottery land for so long. of course you are going to be in lottery land if you have guys like isiah thomas and donald sterling running your team.

Edited June 20, 2013 by yungsta