Statgeeks at 538.com > Hawks will be mostly the same, but worse

[sturt]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-atlanta-hawks-preview/

 

Our projections call for declines from practically all of the players who powered Atlanta’s unexpected rise, particularly Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver. What’s left over after the fall should still be a solid-enough team. But CARMELO projects Atlanta to go 45-37, which may not place the Hawks among the top half of Eastern Conference playoff teams, much less allow them to vie for the East’s best record again.

 

 

[capstone21]

45 wins huh ... that is some respect right there 

[High5]

There's only so much you can gather from stats/projections that say a player is very similar to both 2013 Gerald Wallace and 1981 Dr. J. 

[Plainview1981]

I don't see this happening unless there are a number of injuries. 

Why would Millsap just decline? This is the peak of his career. It doesn't make sense.

 

I can already tell that I'm going to get tired of this "Carmello Projection" stuff really quickly.

Edited October 12, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[Plainview1981]

25 losses because Carroll is gone? 

Now, he has the effect of an MVP level player now that he is gone. Funny how that happens.

[Guest]

Am I the only one that saw that and thought ...

Look I know nimbers are all the rage but nonsense like that gives analytics a bad name.

[JETSET]

Mack getting more playing time than Bazemore? 

That projection is a good sign that they don't know much about this team.

[benhillboy]

These are just baselines.  I wouldn't even think the creators would take these very seriously.  

I don't have much of an issue with it, Bud will start his minutes monitoring and injury prevention from opening night instead of March.  Accounting for him being the best coach in the East and all the other contenders in a state of flux, I'd easily bump it up to 50.  Tack on 3 more just for the sake of Year 3 in the system.  Home court isn't half as important to Bud as it was last season. If anything, these types of matrices going public will add motivation.  Namely to Dennis, who the numbers surprisingly hate.

Edited October 12, 2015 by benhillboy

[Gray Mule]

Four starters back.  DMC gone.  More height added and rebounding improved

which has the bench looking good.  Right now, the fifth starter comes from

last season's team and, the recovering Thabo is expected back well before

the all star break.

Korver may be past his prime.  But, not by a lot.  The other three starters haven't

yet reached their prime.

Has the successful system of Bud now become "old hat" and all the other NBA teams

now have the solution to beat Atlanta?  Has our coach of the year suddenly become

dumb?  Something terrible has happened, apparently.  We are 15 games behind last

season's team with 45 wins.

[DrReality]

We can't be as good as last year given our win streak but numbers don't measure intangibles

[ATLHawks3]

I'd like to see the same projections they had of us last year and compare it to this shit.

[JETSET]

We can't be as good as last year given our win streak but numbers don't measure intangibles

I don't see why not.  I agree that we won't replicate the feat of 19 straight wins but I am just as confident that we start the year better than 5-5 and finish much better than 11-10 over our final 21 games.

[Guest]

I'd like to see the same projections they had of us last year and compare it to this shit.

I too would like to  see last year's projection.

[Canopy]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-atlanta-hawks-preview/

 

If Larry Drew was our coach then this projection may have been close. But, with coach Bud and fact that roaster has mostly remained the same, I would say they are off by +8 to 10 win. Almost every player saw improved efficiency under Bud and even though current SF situation is not ideal, team's overall depth have improved.

Edited October 13, 2015 by Canopy

[ATLHawks3]

We're still a 53+ win team in my book barring any major injuries.

[HawksNWaffles]

I could easily see at least 50 wins from this group. I don't think Milsap will have the drop off that is being predicted here. I'm interested to see how THJ and JHoliday are able to contribute in Coach Bud's system.

 

If anyone else says otherwise........

 

[cam1218]

25 losses because Carroll is gone? 

Now, he has the effect of an MVP level player now that he is gone. Funny how that happens.

Very good point here. When we hear trade rumors, the Hawks are always giving up so much for mediocre talent. Now we lose our one starter who wasn't an all star (but very valuable) and we suck again. 

[HawkItus]

what did they project last year?

[Guest]

In some season projection-related humor, our guy Stacey King thinks we'll be under 49 wins.  Meanwhile, he says the Knicks and Celtics (because of David Lee) will be in the high 40's and Sacto will win over 40.  Also, the Magic will have a big jump (+10) in wins this year.  

He's the Oprah Winfrey of the NBA.  "You get a 50-win season, you get a 50-win season, you all get 50-wins!!!!! ... not you Atlanta."

Just comical.  Oh, and the Bulls will win over 50 easily.

[HawkItus]

 

Pretty much the same, 44-38:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-key-offseason-pickups-should-give-the-cavs-a-boost/

So for you stat heads, does this display a bias against our players?  I mean many of our guys were under bad coaching or used differently than they are here in Atlanta.   Makes me think historical data needs to be devalued when discussing this team.