Another stat based, Dwight Howard optimism post.

[thecampster]

So I just got done reading the Hawks roundtable article  on Peachtree Hoops and found myself once again feeling the need to defend the Dwight Howard vs Al Horford signing.

What follows is one very simple metric.... it is the net points per 100 possessions differential stat. The stat is figured by taking the net points per 100 possession on court and subtracting the off court stat. These are the stats for the past 5 seasons for both Horford/Howard

Player Horford vs Howard

Season

10-11  +4.3 vs  +9.8  (Howard +5.5)

11-12  +4.2 vs  +9.1 (Howard +4.9)

12-13  +7.7 vs  +3.4 (Horford + 4.3)

13-14  +5.3 vs  +6.3 (Howard +1)

14-15  +1.3 vs  +7.4 (Howard + 6.1)

As should be obvious, except for the injury plagued year in LA, Howard's floor time has been significantly more impactful than Horford's (Al trending down for 2 straight years), with a 6.1 point gap last season. The reason for this gap, is a significant drop in team defense when Howard is off the floor. No such gap exists with Horford. Last season, the defense was 2/3 of a point better per 100 possessions, with Horford on the bench. Compare that with Howard whose team gave up 5.4 more points per 100 possessions with Howard out of the game.  The "experts" at Peachtree Hoops drive me crazy. They do not understand the value of rebounding and rim protection.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

A lot of people don't value rebounding and rim protection.  And while Horford's shooting will be missed somewhat, it's not like he aggressively looked for his shot say, like a Chris Bosh does.  And Horford gets to the line even less than Joe Johnson did.

The Hawks were 22nd in Offensive Rating last year.  This, despite Teague and Korver both shooting 40% from 3, and Mike Scott shooting 39%.  The rest of the squad were average to below average 3 point shooters.  

Combine that with the lack of a shot creator and offensive rebounding, it led to the Hawks scoring less than 100 points in 34 games.  We were 9 - 25 in those games.  Ironically, this team was 20 - 0 when scoring 112 pts or more in a game.

Because Horford was out on the perimeter waiting on a shot, only Millsap was normally in position to grab an offensive rebound.  There will be no such issue with Howard.

But like others have pointed out, the biggest difference will come playoff time.  He actually raises his level of play in the postseason, while Horford's production normally drops.

Here's a prediction.  Dwight will take 100 shots from outside 10 ft this year ... and will shoot 40% on those shots.

Bud will not be content with just throwing the ball to Dwight in the post.  He will give Dwight the opportunity to take 15 foot jumpers off of the pick and roll.  Not at the rate that Horford took them, but he will get his chances every now and then.

To put this into perspective, I'll list the last 6 regular seasons for Dwight from 10 feet and out.

 

2016:  11 att - 22% FG

2015: 5 att - 40% FG

2014: 25 att - 24% FG

2013:  40 att - 23% FG

2012:  18 att - 17% FG

2011:  125 att - 38% FG

 

When you first glance at these numbers, you'd probably say ... "Northcyde, you're crazy.  Why even waste time giving him midrange shots, when he's perennially a sub 30% FG shooter?"

I'll post these numbers again, but I'll also put his FT% in parenthesis for that season.

 

2016:  11 att - 22% FG - ( 49% )

2015: 5 att - 40% FG - ( 53% )

2014: 25 att - 24% FG - ( 55% )

2013:  40 att - 23% FG - ( 49% )

2012:  18 att - 17% FG - ( 49% )

2011:  125 att - 38% FG - ( 60% )

 

Here's a thought.  Let Dwight take 1 - 2 midrange shots a game, just to keep a regular shooting rhythm going from that area, outside of just going to the FT line.  If he's allowed to take a few jumpers in the rhythm of the offense, it should help his FT%.

Bud isn't stupid.  He isn't going to go away from the strengths of Dwight.  But he will attempt to make him a more versatile offensive player.

[phoostal]

With the exception of Jay Walker, all those guys are a joke.  They should turn it into Celtictree hoops with the way they love Horf.  Don't get me wrong I liked Horf, but he's gone get over it.  These guys think the Celtics are going to be a 2 seed.  I'd be shocked to see that be the case.  

I begin to wonder how these guys are qualified to be on that site.  We watch and know as much about basketball as they do.  They talk out of both sides of their mouth.  All last year trust in Bud and believe in the system.  Then this year we lose Horf and replace him with Dwight at worse and even move.  But according to them we are going to be worse.  Also, what happen to believe in Bud?  They believed in him with Horf just not now.  Ridiculous.  Not to mention our bench is better.

I read this article and these guys make me sick.  They think they are know it all's and in fact they know as much as us.  Lord forbid you contradict them, you might get banned.  You'll definitely get talked down to, very condescending, even though you could be actually right.  

Bottom line screw those idiots.  The only reason I read is for information not for their opinions because those are S**t.

[macdaddy]

I was a big fan of Horford and I"m bummed to see him go.    But let's be honest.  2 years ago if you had made the assertion that Horford was a better NBA center than Dwight you'd be laughed at.   What has changed.   Other than Dwight having a low scoring year last year he has been pretty much what he always was despite being on a team lacking chemistry.   Horford has also remained consistent but developed the 3 ball and moved out of the lane.    The league is way overvaluing the 3 ball from PFs and Cs.   Don't get me wrong.   It's a huge asset but to me it's great to have off the bench a la Channing Frye.   I don't know that i want to build a team around a stretch 5 and invest max money in it.   

[Guest]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

I was a big fan of Horford and I"m bummed to see him go.    But let's be honest.  2 years ago if you had made the assertion that Horford was a better NBA center than Dwight you'd be laughed at.   What has changed.   Other than Dwight having a low scoring year last year he has been pretty much what he always was despite being on a team lacking chemistry.   Horford has also remained consistent but developed the 3 ball and moved out of the lane.    The league is way overvaluing the 3 ball from PFs and Cs.   Don't get me wrong.   It's a huge asset but to me it's great to have off the bench a la Channing Frye.   I don't know that i want to build a team around a stretch 5 and invest max money in it.   

Agreed. It's only a matter of time before we go back to traditional pound them in the paint 4's and 5's. The NBA is cyclical like anything else. Also agree that if you wanna have a stretch 5, have it be your backup center like Frye.

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

A lot of people don't value rebounding and rim protection.  And while Horford's shooting will be missed somewhat, it's not like he aggressively looked for his shot say, like a Chris Bosh does.  And Horford gets to the line even less than Joe Johnson did.

The Hawks were 22nd in Offensive Rating last year.  This, despite Teague and Korver both shooting 40% from 3, and Mike Scott shooting 39%.  The rest of the squad were average to below average 3 point shooters.  

Combine that with the lack of a shot creator and offensive rebounding, it led to the Hawks scoring less than 100 points in 34 games.  We were 9 - 25 in those games.  Ironically, this team was 20 - 0 when scoring 112 pts or more in a game.

Because Horford was out on the perimeter waiting on a shot, only Millsap was normally in position to grab an offensive rebound.  There will be no such issue with Howard.

But like others have pointed out, the biggest difference will come playoff time.  He actually raises his level of play in the postseason, while Horford's production normally drops.

Here's a prediction.  Dwight will take 100 shots from outside 10 ft this year ... and will shoot 40% on those shots.

Bud will not be content with just throwing the ball to Dwight in the post.  He will give Dwight the opportunity to take 15 foot jumpers off of the pick and roll.  Not at the rate that Horford took them, but he will get his chances every now and then.

To put this into perspective, I'll list the last 6 regular seasons for Dwight from 10 feet and out.

 

2016:  11 att - 22% FG

2015: 5 att - 40% FG

2014: 25 att - 24% FG

2013:  40 att - 23% FG

2012:  18 att - 17% FG

2011:  125 att - 38% FG

 

When you first glance at these numbers, you'd probably say ... "Northcyde, you're crazy.  Why even waste time giving him midrange shots, when he's perennially a sub 30% FG shooter?"

I'll post these numbers again, but I'll also put his FT% in parenthesis for that season.

 

2016:  11 att - 22% FG - ( 49% )

2015: 5 att - 40% FG - ( 53% )

2014: 25 att - 24% FG - ( 55% )

2013:  40 att - 23% FG - ( 49% )

2012:  18 att - 17% FG - ( 49% )

2011:  125 att - 38% FG - ( 60% )

 

Here's a thought.  Let Dwight take 1 - 2 midrange shots a game, just to keep a regular shooting rhythm going from that area, outside of just going to the FT line.  If he's allowed to take a few jumpers in the rhythm of the offense, it should help his FT%.

Bud isn't stupid.  He isn't going to go away from the strengths of Dwight.  But he will attempt to make him a more versatile offensive player.

This is a very interesting take.   I have to say, I'm an old fashioned Inside out guy with Skillsets being unchanging.   However, if he develops a top key, midkey shot.. Im not mad.

 

[benhillboy]

I don't bother with Peachtree.  Their overall content can't compare to ours.  I glance at the Bleacher pieces pretty regularly.

[AHF]

Like the thread and the OP, but I'm not a fan of having Dwight shoot a midrange shot until he is worlds better at it than he has been to date in his career.  I'd live with a midrange jumper every other game if it materially moved his FT% but I see sample size issues that don't give me confidence that it will translate.  Indeed, even if there is correlation it might be in the other direction - i.e., when he feels better about his FT stroke he has more confidence to take a few jumpers in games.

#1 in attempts - #1 in FT%

#2 in attempts - #4 in FT%

#3 in attempts - #2 in FT%

#4 in attempts - #5 in FT%

#5 in attempts - #6 in FT%

#6 in attempts - #3 in FT%

What is much clearer to me is that 4 of the 5 worst seasons of Dwight's 12 years in the league are his last 4 seasons.

[sillent]

On 8/9/2016 at 10:26 AM, Spud2Nique said:

Agreed. It's only a matter of time before we go back to traditional pound them in the paint 4's and 5's. The NBA is cyclical like anything else. Also agree that if you wanna have a stretch 5, have it be your backup center like Frye.

Or in our case Humphries & possibly Muscala

[Blunt91]

On 8/9/2016 at 7:55 AM, phoostal said:

With the exception of Jay Walker, all those guys are a joke.  They should turn it into Celtictree hoops with the way they love Horf.  Don't get me wrong I liked Horf, but he's gone get over it.  These guys think the Celtics are going to be a 2 seed.  I'd be shocked to see that be the case.  

I begin to wonder how these guys are qualified to be on that site.  We watch and know as much about basketball as they do.  They talk out of both sides of their mouth.  All last year trust in Bud and believe in the system.  Then this year we lose Horf and replace him with Dwight at worse and even move.  But according to them we are going to be worse.  Also, what happen to believe in Bud?  They believed in him with Horf just not now.  Ridiculous.  Not to mention our bench is better.

I read this article and these guys make me sick.  They think they are know it all's and in fact they know as much as us.  Lord forbid you contradict them, you might get banned.  You'll definitely get talked down to, very condescending, even though you could be actually right.  

Bottom line screw those idiots.  The only reason I read is for information not for their opinions because those are S**t.

I agree with you 100%.  The hate for Dwight is disgusting.   He may not be your favorite player but now that he is here with the Hawks, you should be supporting him, especially when he has been putting work in the gym this summer.   Kris Willis made a comment that Dwight only came cause we paid him 23million, well that is what they are playing the game for to get Paid. 

[macdaddy]

3 hours ago, Blunt91 said:

I agree with you 100%.  The hate for Dwight is disgusting.   He may not be your favorite player but now that he is here with the Hawks, you should be supporting him, especially when he has been putting work in the gym this summer.   Kris Willis made a comment that Dwight only came cause we paid him 23million, well that is what they are playing the game for to get Paid. 

He's making about the same as DWade, Parsons, and Beal.   Someone would have probably paid him more.   There are a bunch of teams that should have signed him.