Nooooooooooooo! No no God NO!

[Thomas]

Houston and the tank to get Olajuwon is what created the lotto so in theory tanking does not work even before considering what any management will do afterwards, good or bad. Just thinking about what those Philly fans went through with Hinkie's philosophy for so long. Maybe its works without all the horrid injuries but to date they still struggle. 

[DBac]

5 hours ago, KB21 said:

I have to LOL at those that believe tanking is a sound strategy.  That belief just goes completely against all the data that is available that proves it is a bad idea.  It's kind of like people who smoke tobacco.  It is proven the cancer risk is great, but the attitude is "it won't happen to me."

Bottom line is this.  If you tank, you will lose for several years before you get back to the level the Hawks are currently at.  It is really the worst possible strategy a team can take.

Kind of. It's much more important to collect and manage assets. Tanking clears the canvas and often times allows teams to quickly stockpile assets. 

Assets allow you to make a deal to get a guy like James Harden (Houston) or Kevin Love (Cleveland). Golden State's philosophy of building through the draft allowed them to have enough cap space to snake Kevin Durant away from OKC (who was also built through the draft). Boston has unbelievable flexibility right now. They have the #1 pick in a very strong draft while also being able to afford another max contract player, as well as yet another top 5 pick next year. If you're not in the lottery, you better get lucky like Milwaukee (Giannis + Middleton deal) or San Antonio (Kawhi).

Compared to the Hawks, who are declining in a hurry and are backed against the salary cap wall. If the Hawks bring back Millsap on the max contract that he will demand, they are entirely dependent on Dennis Schröder, Tim Hardaway Jr (assuming we bring him back), or Taurean Prince being good enough to put them over the top in the next few years. 

And that is why people are fine with the idea of the Hawks blowing it up. Because the team is dangerously close to salary cap hell and not competing  for a title at that. Right now, flexibility is king and the Hawks don't have much at all..

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, DBac said:

Kind of. It's much more important to collect and manage assets. Tanking clears the canvas and often times allows teams to quickly stockpile assets.

How many times do we have to have this conversation???  You tank guys see what you want to see.  Recent tank teams include Philly, Minnesota, Lakers, Sacramento forever, Orlando, Detroit, Knicks, Nets etc.  So where are those team? And where are they headed?  While teams like San Antonio just continue to build.  I'd rather be San Antonio and Not Philly any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[MaceCase]

39 minutes ago, DBac said:

Kind of. It's much more important to collect and manage assets. Tanking clears the canvas and often times allows teams to quickly stockpile assets. 

Assets allow you to make a deal to get a guy like James Harden (Houston) or Kevin Love (Cleveland). Golden State's philosophy of building through the draft allowed them to have enough cap space to snake Kevin Durant away from OKC (who was also built through the draft). Boston has unbelievable flexibility right now. They have the #1 pick in a very strong draft while also being able to afford another max contract player, as well as yet another top 5 pick next year. If you're not in the lottery, you better get lucky like Milwaukee (Giannis + Middleton deal) or San Antonio (Kawhi).

Compared to the Hawks, who are declining in a hurry and are backed against the salary cap wall. If the Hawks bring back Millsap on the max contract that he will demand, they are entirely dependent on Dennis Schröder, Tim Hardaway Jr (assuming we bring him back), or Taurean Prince being good enough to put them over the top in the next few years. 

And that is why people are fine with the idea of the Hawks blowing it up. Because the team is dangerously close to salary cap hell and not competing  for a title at that. Right now, flexibility is king and the Hawks don't have much at all..

You mentioned only one team that actually tanked.  This is why it's a moot argument because most people can't even properly define what a tank is.

[DBac]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

How many times do we have to have this conversation???  You tank guys see what you want to see.  Recent tank teams include Philly, Minnesota, Lakers, Sacramento forever, Orlando, Detroit, Knicks, Nets etc.  So where are those team? And where are they headed?  While teams like San Antonio just continue to build.  I'd rather be San Antonio and Not Philly any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

First off, the Nets and Knicks are not tanking. The Nets blew up their future when they traded away everything for old stars in a desperate attempt to win right away. The Knicks did something similar when they maxed out Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose. Hell even the Lakers f***ed up and signed Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov(!) to big money contracts last year. The only teams in that list that I feel good about getting it right are the 76ers and TWolves. Sacramento, Orlando, NY, Brooklyn are all horribly managed and won't be good no matter what strategy they employ because they are simply badly run teams. Detroit is in a funky position, Jackson and Drummond seem to have personality issues that makes their future weird. I expect them to deal one or both of them. 

And everybody would love to be San Antonio. Their MVP level player gets hurt, suddenly their season is torpedo'd and they are right in striking distance to land the #1 pick and draft the best power forward of all time. On top of that, they have one of the best coaches ever and an amazing developmental staff. That's the amazing thing about the NBA, all you need is one pick to break right and suddenly you have a plan. Nobody ever envisioned Kawhi becoming this good, but now that he has he is suddenly the posterboy for the "anti-tanking" army. Look around the NBA man, it's not a secret that assets and flexibility are the  common denominator in the top teams. 

What is the Hawks pathway to becoming a top team in your opinion? We have a PG on the rise in Dennis, a nice 3nD SF in Taurean and then a jumbled mess. Bazemore is overpaid with a bench player's skillset. Dwight is not a good fit with Dennis, who needs space to operate in the paint. But honestly, I don't mind Dwight's contract since he'll be gone in a couple of years anyway. He's actually tradable unlike Bazemore and Millsap (assuming he gets a max contract). THJ has to be resigned, I'm still not even entirely convinced that he's a good fit next to Dennis. I love him as a 6th man, but I'd prefer a guy in the Courtney Lee, Wesley Matthews mold next to Dennis.

Ideally if I'm building around Dennis, I'd go Dennis / 3nD SG / Scoring SF / Defensive 4 / Stretch 5. 

@MaseCase You're missing the point. Tanking only exists to get straight to the point and eliminate as much luck as possible. Of course you don't have to go full Philadelphia, but you still have to be bad to get your shot at the top talents. And the top teams in the NBA are either built around those top talents (Cleveland, Golden State, San Antonio, Houston, Washington) or built around smart cost effective contracts (Golden State, Houston, Boston). You don't get to the top by overpaying FAs and drafting in the 20s every year. The 2015 Hawks succeeded on Kyle Korver, Demarre Carroll, and Paul Millsap outplaying their contracts to an amazing degree along with top 5 pick Al Horford being an amazing glue guy. The Hawks as they stand now are not bad enough to get to the top talents and not good enough to stand a chance in the playoffs. This year it wasn't even Lebron, it was the Wizards. It's not like they are an old team that we can outlast. The Hawks are one of the 5 oldest teams in the NBA. And for what? /rant

 

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, DBac said:

Kind of. It's much more important to collect and manage assets. Tanking clears the canvas and often times allows teams to quickly stockpile assets. 

Assets allow you to make a deal to get a guy like James Harden (Houston) or Kevin Love (Cleveland). Golden State's philosophy of building through the draft allowed them to have enough cap space to snake Kevin Durant away from OKC (who was also built through the draft). Boston has unbelievable flexibility right now. They have the #1 pick in a very strong draft while also being able to afford another max contract player, as well as yet another top 5 pick next year. If you're not in the lottery, you better get lucky like Milwaukee (Giannis + Middleton deal) or San Antonio (Kawhi).

Compared to the Hawks, who are declining in a hurry and are backed against the salary cap wall. If the Hawks bring back Millsap on the max contract that he will demand, they are entirely dependent on Dennis Schröder, Tim Hardaway Jr (assuming we bring him back), or Taurean Prince being good enough to put them over the top in the next few years. 

And that is why people are fine with the idea of the Hawks blowing it up. Because the team is dangerously close to salary cap hell and not competing  for a title at that. Right now, flexibility is king and the Hawks don't have much at all..

Dwight Howard is on the books for 2 years. They are not in cap hell.  

Hawks salary 2017 without Dunleavy (team option) or Millsap (player option) - $57,224,872.  Remembering also that Hardaway is also a restricted FA and if he signs elsewhere that saves 3.3 million. With Millsap opting out and the Hawks unsure on Dunleavy, They could enter the offseason with as much as 49 million in cap space and over 60 million under the luxury tax.

 

Currently, the Hawks only have 34.7 million committed in 2019.  

 

Many here confuse the "CAP" and the "LT". The cap threshold for 2017 is estimated between 101 and 103 million. This is the level that rules for trades and signings kick in. The luxury tax threshold for 2017 is estimated to be between $121 and $124 million.  This level is where penalties kick in for exceeding the cap, a tax per dollar spent over the LT. The NBA has expanding penalties for exceeding the cap in subsequent years. The cap penalties are as follows.

Less than $5 million over = $1.50 for every dollar over.  (ie $3 million over = $.4.5 million in tax)

$5 to <$10 million = $1.75/dollar.

$10 to <$15 million = $2.50/dollar.

$15 to <$20 million = $3.25/dollar.

$20 million + = $3.75/dollar + .50 per extra $5 million. (so $35 million over = $131.25 + $52.5 = 183.75 million)  

 

If you are a repeat offender, those amounts go up to 

$2.50

$2.75

$3.50

$4.25

$4.75 + .50 per 5 million.

 

Now the Cavs current salaries put them in the LT +$10 million hell or more for 5 straight years (last 3 plus next 2).

 

The Hawks aren't even in the LT, aren't in danger of reaching the LT and can't even get there without about 4 uneven trades where they take on lots of extra salary or 4 more Baze-esque contracts which they could only make on their own players.

On this same note, there are a very small number of teams that will have the room to offer Millsap a max contract next year and keep their own quality free agents. Of those, pretty much none were 6th seeds or higher.  We don't need to offer Millsap the max to retain him (my best guess is Millsap doesn't get over $25 million in the off-season.

 

So assuming we find a team to take Bazemore in the offseason (Philly, Chicago, Denver, Phoenix, Brooklyn, Minny to name a few possibilities) and we resign Hardaway for $14 million, Millsap for $25 million and don't opt in for Dunleavy...we'd sit at $84.5 million. We're 16.5 million under the cap (and 37 million under the LT) with 7 players under contract (this doesn't include who we'd take back in return for Baze or the cost of our draft picks) and after next year Delaney comes off the books as well as Dwight the following year. We are not only not in salary cap hell but with 10 picks in the next 3 years we're in a very good position. Better than most teams.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2017 by thecampster

[thecampster]

Here is the scary thing about the picks and cap hell. There are going to be teams in the next few years that overspent the first year of the cap going up and won't even be able to afford their first round picks. There are going to be teams selling those picks for future firsts. With 20 million now between cap and LT, cap hell is going to be hard to get to.

 

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Here is the scary thing about the picks and cap hell. There are going to be teams in the next few years that overspent the first year of the cap going up and won't even be able to afford their first round picks. There are going to be teams selling those picks for future firsts. With 20 million now between cap and LT, cap hell is going to be hard to get to.

 

Thank you for educating guys that severely misinformed!

[DBac]

6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Dwight Howard is on the books for 2 years. They are not in cap hell.  

Hawks salary 2017 without Dunleavy (team option) or Millsap (player option) - $57,224,872.  Remembering also that Hardaway is also a restricted FA and if he signs elsewhere that saves 3.3 million. With Millsap opting out and the Hawks unsure on Dunleavy, They could enter the offseason with as much as 49 million in cap space and over 60 million under the luxury tax.

 

Currently, the Hawks only have 34.7 million committed in 2019.  

 

Many here confuse the "CAP" and the "LT". The cap threshold for 2017 is estimated between 101 and 103 million. This is the level that rules for trades and signings kick in. The luxury tax threshold for 2017 is estimated to be between $121 and $124 million.  This level is where penalties kick in for exceeding the cap, a tax per dollar spent over the LT. The NBA has expanding penalties for exceeding the cap in subsequent years. The cap penalties are as follows.

Less than $5 million over = $1.50 for every dollar over.  (ie $3 million over = $.4.5 million in tax)

$5 to <$10 million = $1.75/dollar.

$10 to <$15 million = $2.50/dollar.

$15 to <$20 million = $3.25/dollar.

$20 million + = $3.75/dollar + .50 per extra $5 million. (so $35 million over = $131.25 + $52.5 = 183.75 million)  

 

If you are a repeat offender, those amounts go up to 

$2.50

$2.75

$3.50

$4.25

$4.75 + .50 per 5 million.

 

Now the Cavs current salaries put them in the LT +$10 million hell or more for 5 straight years (last 3 plus next 2).

 

The Hawks aren't even in the LT, aren't in danger of reaching the LT and can't even get there without about 4 uneven trades where they take on lots of extra salary or 4 more Baze-esque contracts which they could only make on their own players.

On this same note, there are a very small number of teams that will have the room to offer Millsap a max contract next year and keep their own quality free agents. Of those, pretty much none were 6th seeds or higher.  We don't need to offer Millsap the max to retain him (my best guess is Millsap doesn't get over $25 million in the off-season.

 

So assuming we find a team to take Bazemore in the offseason (Philly, Chicago, Denver, Phoenix, Brooklyn, Minny to name a few possibilities) and we resign Hardaway for $14 million, Millsap for $25 million and don't opt in for Dunleavy...we'd sit at $84.5 million. We're 16.5 million under the cap (and 37 million under the LT) with 7 players under contract (this doesn't include who we'd take back in return for Baze or the cost of our draft picks) and after next year Delaney comes off the books as well as Dwight the following year. We are not only not in salary cap hell but with 10 picks in the next 3 years we're in a very good position. Better than most teams.

 

 

Thanks for this, but I highly doubt we're going to be able to find a team to take on Baze without giving up something ourselves. It'd take one hell of a salesman to trade Baze and actually come out on the winning side as far as assets go. As for Millsap, Ressler has said that we'll do "whatever it takes" to keep him, so I'm bracing for the worst. I'm fine with bringing THJ back. I already mentioned that I'm fine with Dwight's contract and how it fits into our timeline, but it certainly isn't helping us win. It is at least tradable. 

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, DBac said:

Thanks for this, but I highly doubt we're going to be able to find a team to take on Baze without giving up something ourselves. It'd take one hell of a salesman to trade Baze and actually come out on the winning side as far as assets go. As for Millsap, Ressler has said that we'll do "whatever it takes" to keep him, so I'm bracing for the worst. I'm fine with bringing THJ back. I already mentioned that I'm fine with Dwight's contract and how it fits into our timeline, but it certainly isn't helping us win. It is at least tradable. 

If you are patient enough with tanking, why aren't you patient enough with seeing where our young talent can take us?

[thecampster]

Last point, Boston was built well and has first pick...blah blah.  Boston's salary situation in 2017/18 is good because Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko come off the books to the tune of $17 million. That number doesn't include the cost of retaining Olynyk who is only rated at his qualifying offer of 4.3 million and will get closer to $12 and Gerald Green who will have to be replaced. million. However, Boston must also prepare for 2018/19 when Bradley, Thomas, Zeller, Smart are all do for salary. Boston has to think carefully about what they do this year because they would need $30 million more in salary to retain all 4 of those players.

So in short, Boston doesn't really have $30 million in cap room this year and will have to make tough decisions on 3 real contributors. that will eat into that money and that will need to me moderate as 1/2 their team comes up for new contracts after next year.

[DBac]

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

If you are patient enough with tanking, why aren't you patient enough with seeing where our young talent can take us?

Can you re-ask that? I don't believe the team as currently constructed compliments our young talent very well. Dennis and Taurean would thrive with spacing/shooting, Dennis needs a good defender next to him, stretch 5 vs Dwight etc. 

Edited May 6, 2017 by DBac

[thecampster]

7 minutes ago, DBac said:

Thanks for this, but I highly doubt we're going to be able to find a team to take on Baze without giving up something ourselves. It'd take one hell of a salesman to trade Baze and actually come out on the winning side as far as assets go. As for Millsap, Ressler has said that we'll do "whatever it takes" to keep him, so I'm bracing for the worst. I'm fine with bringing THJ back. I already mentioned that I'm fine with Dwight's contract and how it fits into our timeline, but it certainly isn't helping us win. It is at least tradable. 

Ressler is not paying 30 million to keep Millsap and there are only a couple of teams with the space to sign him for more than $25. Philly, Sacramento, Phoenix, Brooklyn, Minny, Denver. That's pretty much it. Nobody else has more than $25 million.  For Sactown it means no Rudy Gay.  Others in that list would have to make similar hard choices.

[Guest]

Tanking is not in the DNA of Bud. As long as he's the coach, I don't think we are tanking.

[DBac]

On a sorta related note, who do yall want in the draft? The draft forum is always dead, but I love draft discussion.

[NBASupes]

Tanking for this team next year isn't that hard. Just remove Millsap and they are a bottom three NBA club if not the worst team in the NBA. 

[NBASupes]

52 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Last point, Boston was built well and has first pick...blah blah.  Boston's salary situation in 2017/18 is good because Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko come off the books to the tune of $17 million. That number doesn't include the cost of retaining Olynyk who is only rated at his qualifying offer of 4.3 million and will get closer to $12 and Gerald Green who will have to be replaced. million. However, Boston must also prepare for 2018/19 when Bradley, Thomas, Zeller, Smart are all do for salary. Boston has to think carefully about what they do this year because they would need $30 million more in salary to retain all 4 of those players.

So in short, Boston doesn't really have $30 million in cap room this year and will have to make tough decisions on 3 real contributors. that will eat into that money and that will need to me moderate as 1/2 their team comes up for new contracts after next year.

Boston is actually in a great position. 

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, DBac said:

I don't believe the team as currently constructed compliments our young talent very well. Dennis and Taurean would thrive with spacing/shooting, Dennis needs a good defender next to him, stretch 5 vs Dwight etc. 

So you tank for the above reason?

[DBac]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

So you tank for the above reason?

As Supes alluded to, it doesn't take much to make this team very bad. Look no further than how the team performed without Millsap. Are you assuming that tanking means scrapping the young players and starting completely over? Dennis, Taurean, Bembry, and THJ are all fine. I said I'd be open to selling high on Dennis, but I'm cool with moving forward with him as well. Dude's 23, I just really hope that he works on his flaws so that he can take the next step. 

The way the NBA is set up right now, good young players rarely become available. It's just way too easy to retain them. So when they do, you best be able to make a good offer (that goes for FA and trades). Dwight's current contract is tradable, Baze's contract is probably not this offseason (though I hope we find a way to get rid of it). SO yes I would try to get rid of the bad contracts, make some lowkey signings to compliment our young guys, and draft to add to the future with those pieces in mind.  

[Peoriabird]

Just now, DBac said:

As Supes alluded to, it doesn't take much to make this team very bad. Look no further than how the team performed without Millsap. Are you assuming that tanking means scrapping the young players and starting completely over? Dennis, Taurean, Bembry, and THJ are all fine. I said I'd be open to selling high on Dennis, but I'm cool with moving forward with him as well. Dude's 23, I just really hope that he works on his flaws so that he can take the next step. 

The way the NBA is set up right now, good young players rarely become available. It's just way too easy to retain them. So when they do, you best be able to make a good offer (that goes for FA and trades). Dwight's current contract is tradable, Baze's contract is probably not this offseason (though I hope we find a way to get rid of it). SO yes I would try to get rid of the bad contracts, make some lowkey signings to compliment our young guys, and draft to add to the future with those pieces in mind.  

So not resigning Millsap is tanking in your mind?